PA-SN 2022 megathread: Shrek vs. The Wizard of Oz

[Buffalo Mayor Young Kim]

If the apparatus backs Lamb, it will mark my point of no return with the Democratic Party. Manchinism must be stopped if the party is truly interested in making policy.

At least Manchin consistently overperformed top-of-the-ticket Democrats.

Lamb over-performed quite a bit in both the special and the 2018 GE.  In 2020, unlike most congressional Democrats in tough districts, he matched Biden’s showing IIRC.  Plus, every election he’s run in was a competitive race and he’s currently three for three.  I get not trusting him for ideological reasons - although I don’t think he’d be as bad as Sinema, Manchin, or even Maggie Hassen - and I’d even want him to commit to some things like nuking the filibuster. 

That said, while he’s not a Cartwright-level over-performer, he has an excellent electoral track record and is a good fit for PA.  And I don’t see how one can argue Lamb would be less electable than Fetterman, Kenyatta, or Street.  Maybe we don’t need Lamb to win and it isn’t worth the ideological tradeoff, but he’s definitely the strongest candidate currently running from an electability standpoint.

This is true, but Democrats need to be asking themselves ‘whose the mostreliable vote that can win’ not ‘whose going to win by the most’.

I see no reason to think either Fetterman is weak or Lamb is unrealizable though, so I’m pretty agnostic here.

[free my dawg]

If the apparatus backs Lamb, it will mark my point of no return with the Democratic Party. Manchinism must be stopped if the party is truly interested in making policy.

Let’s see if the primary moves him to the left first.  I mean, he supports $15 minimum wage so that already puts him ahead of some Democratic Senators.

The problem is that in practice, he's already tried the usual moderate hero-esque doublespeak crap on one popular key Democratic issue. His statement on his no vote in the MORE act was uniquely vague and almost devoid of policy. All he said was that how he Totally Supports federal decriminalization, but We're In A Pandemic and In A Recession, and how he voted against it because he doesn't think it's important.

Compare this to statements from Cheri Bustos and Chris Pappas, who named specific concerns and policies that they were against. Lipinski and Cuellar said (what I believe to be) the quiet part about Conor Lamb's marijuana beliefs out loud - that they don't think marijuana should be legal at all because of long-obsolete reefer madness logic.

Obviously, I don't like how my Congressman voted, but at least he had the guts to stand by his vote. Lamb's statement on marijuana reform was even more policy-free than the initial statements from my senators.

After a few weeks, it came out from a teleconference that the main sticking point from Hassan and Shaheen was the fact that the Sanders proposal eliminated the tipped minimum wage exemption. Or, more simply, they voted no on a $15 minimum wage because their donors in the restaurant lobby told them to.

My position is fairly simple. I don't trust Lamb to be a reliable vote because he hasn't even been reliable for one of the Democratic Party's most popular proposals! The MORE Act isn't "defund the police" or a Green New Deal or even "eliminate private insurance companies". This is marijuana decriminalization. If he's trying the moderate hero approach on the party's most popular bipartisan issue, what's to stop him from blocking a minimum wage hike or a public option?

[wbrocks67]

Honestly, I'd be fine with Lamb jumping in. I think he'd be a great statewide candidate. Not sure who I would vote for in Lamb vs. Kenyatta but I know that Fetterman is now #3 on my list.

[Lognog]

Honestly, I'd be fine with Lamb jumping in. I think he'd be a great statewide candidate. Not sure who I would vote for in Lamb vs. Kenyatta but I know that Fetterman is now #3 on my list.

Why Fetterman so low. Personally, I'm quite undecided in this race

[Lambsbread]

I would vote for Lamb in the general and I would volunteer for him. The gap between him and any of the potential Republican candidates is, shall we say, quite large. But I would not want him to be the nominee and I will do what I can to ensure he is not the nominee. I think primaries should always be for ideology and, barring extremely extenuating circumstances, general elections should be for voting for the person who will accomplish the most good who actually has a chance to win. That's almost always the Democrat. In the primary, I'm going to support the candidate who either supports Medicare for All or supports the greatest amount of policies that I agree with and find crucial. Lamb doesn't check those boxes, but if he ain't leagues above any Republican...

[Chancellor Tanterterg]

If the apparatus backs Lamb, it will mark my point of no return with the Democratic Party. Manchinism must be stopped if the party is truly interested in making policy.

Let’s see if the primary moves him to the left first.  I mean, he supports $15 minimum wage so that already puts him ahead of some Democratic Senators.

The problem is that in practice, he's already tried the usual moderate hero-esque doublespeak crap on one popular key Democratic issue. His statement on his no vote in the MORE act was vague and almost totally devoid of policy. All he said was that how he Totally Supports federal decriminalization, but We're In A Pandemic and In A Recession, and how he voted against it because he doesn't think it's important.

Compare this to statements from Cheri Bustos and Chris Pappas, who named specific concerns and policies that they were against. Lipinski and Cuellar said (what I believe to be) the quiet part about Conor Lamb's marijuana beliefs out loud - that they don't think marijuana should be legal at all because of long-obsolete reefer madness logic.

Obviously, I don't like how my Congressman voted, but at least he had the guts to stand by his vote. Lamb's statement on marijuana reform was even more policy-free than the initial statements from my senators.

After a few weeks, it came out from a teleconference that the main sticking point from Hassan and Shaheen was the fact that the Sanders proposal eliminated the tipped minimum wage exemption. Or, more simply, they voted no on a $15 minimum wage because their donors in the restaurant lobby told them to.

My position is fairly simple. I don't trust Lamb to be a reliable vote because he hasn't even been reliable for one of the Democratic Party's most popular proposals! The MORE Act isn't "defund the police" or a Green New Deal or even "eliminate private insurance companies". This is marijuana decriminalization. If he's trying the moderate hero approach on the party's most popular bipartisan issue, what's to stop him from blocking a minimum wage hike or a public option?

I guess part of it is that we disagree on whether the MORE Act was a key issue or a virtue-signaling bill dealing with a low priority issue that never had a chance of passing.  I’d argue it was the latter, so I am obviously less troubled than you by Lamb’s opposition to it.  

Personally, I care more about things like the PRO Act, nuking the filibuster, HB 1, healthcare, gun control, student debt relief, and the nominee not being one of those God-awful “muh fiscal conservatism” economic policy DINOs.  

I would vote for Lamb in the general and I would volunteer for him. The gap between him and any of the potential Republican candidates is, shall we say, quite large. But I would not want him to be the nominee and I will do what I can to ensure he is not the nominee. I think primaries should always be for ideology and, barring extremely extenuating circumstances, general elections should be for voting for the person who will accomplish the most good who actually has a chance to win. That's almost always the Democrat. In the primary, I'm going to support the candidate who either supports Medicare for All or supports the greatest amount of policies that I agree with and find crucial. Lamb doesn't check those boxes, but if he ain't leagues above any Republican...

Fair enough.  Tbh I don’t even know that I’d be willing to vote for Lamb in a primary right now were I a PA resident.

[Dr Oz Lost Party!]

I know as a more liberal site then not we mostly going to be talking about the dem primary but is there really no reps of note running or rumored of running?

I’ve heard Reschenthaler has been rumored to run, but I haven’t heard anything about him recently.

Him being the GOP nominee would probably be the best case scenario for the Dems.

I disagree. Out of all the potential candidates, he scares me the most. Sure, he's a bit bland and uninspiring, but he's a hardline Trumpist, he's young, he's from western PA so he has that working class appeal, he's a veteran...but it all depends on whether or not the Trumpists will turn out for him without DJT on the ballot. He has the highest ceiling imo.

You do have a point. However, I definitely wouldn't say he has the highest ceiling. That would be Charlie Dent or Brian Fitzpatrick, imo, and neither of them are going to be the nominee.

[free my dawg]

I guess part of it is that we disagree on whether the MORE Act was a key issue or a virtue-signaling bill dealing with a low priority issue that never had a chance of passing.  I’d argue it was the latter, so I am obviously less troubled than you by Lamb’s opposition to it.

At the same time, the virtue signaling doesn't necessarily hurt Lamb. It's less about how important the MORE Act was and more about how marijuana is not the issue to go "Jeez oh man look at how broken Washington is" over.

Let's take Lamb's position at face value. His vote against the MORE Act is, at best, the type of moderate hero pundit brain that hurts candidates. These types of people in the Democratic establishment think that the MORE Act is a liberal issue that's never going to actually become a law, and therefore safe to vote against to establish their moderate, centrist bona fides and highlight how dysfunctional DC is.

Of course, the issue here is that marijuana decriminalization is popular policy with bipartisan support.

[KaiserDave]

Supporting Fetterman unless Cartwright jumps in (which won't happen)

[Oregon Eagle Politics]

Lamb sucks.

[Boss_Rahm]

In the primary I will be voting strategically against Lamb. In the general I will be voting for the Democrat.

[Xing]

We’re still making electability arguments? Even when several progressive Democrats overperformed Biden and quite a few moderate Democrats (including Lamb) underperformed him? I could easily see Lamb being a Patrick Murphy-esque dud as a Senate candidate, so I don’t get why people are so sure he’d be such a terrific candidate, but either way, primaries should be about who has the best ideas and is the best at selling them, i.e. a time for debate, not a time to shut down the debate because we “know” who the most electable candidate is. I’d obviously prefer Lamb to a Republican, but Democrats should not want another Sinema in the Senate.

[Calthrina950]

We’re still making electability arguments? Even when several progressive Democrats overperformed Biden and quite a few moderate Democrats (including Lamb) underperformed him? I could easily see Lamb being a Patrick Murphy-esque dud as a Senate candidate, so I don’t get why people are so sure he’d be such a terrific candidate, but either way, primaries should be about who has the best ideas and is the best at selling them, i.e. a time for debate, not a time to shut down the debate because we “know” who the most electable candidate is. I’d obviously prefer Lamb to a Republican, but Democrats should not want another Sinema in the Senate.

Which progressive Democrats that you are aware of overperformed Biden? I'm aware of Lamb's underperformance-which is why I'm not so sure that he would be the best (or better) candidate for Democrats here.

[wbrocks67]

If Houlahan jumps in, though, I'd move to her camp in an instant.

[Xing]

We’re still making electability arguments? Even when several progressive Democrats overperformed Biden and quite a few moderate Democrats (including Lamb) underperformed him? I could easily see Lamb being a Patrick Murphy-esque dud as a Senate candidate, so I don’t get why people are so sure he’d be such a terrific candidate, but either way, primaries should be about who has the best ideas and is the best at selling them, i.e. a time for debate, not a time to shut down the debate because we “know” who the most electable candidate is. I’d obviously prefer Lamb to a Republican, but Democrats should not want another Sinema in the Senate.

Which progressive Democrats that you are aware of overperformed Biden? I'm aware of Lamb's underperformance-which is why I'm not so sure that he would be the best (or better) candidate for Democrats here.

The best example is in Pennsylvania: Matt Cartwright. While his overperformance wasn’t as impressive as previous ones, it’s clear he still has some crossover appeal. There are some others (DeFazio, Jones, Kim is part of the CPC), but I think it’s clear that ideology is not the key factor in electoral performance.

[Chancellor Tanterterg]

We’re still making electability arguments? Even when several progressive Democrats overperformed Biden and quite a few moderate Democrats (including Lamb) underperformed him? I could easily see Lamb being a Patrick Murphy-esque dud as a Senate candidate, so I don’t get why people are so sure he’d be such a terrific candidate, but either way, primaries should be about who has the best ideas and is the best at selling them, i.e. a time for debate, not a time to shut down the debate because we “know” who the most electable candidate is. I’d obviously prefer Lamb to a Republican, but Democrats should not want another Sinema in the Senate.

I mean, if we're making arguments about who is best at effectively selling their views then WWC LARPer John Fetterman shouldn't even be seriously considered for the nomination.  I mean, he's run a pretty weak campaign, already proven himself a lazy candidate who regularly takes votes for granted (to say nothing of his disastrous handling of the shotgun controversy).  

I've always said I'd much prefer Cartwright to Lamb.  My second choice would be either Lamb or Kenyatta, but I'm currently undecided between the two.  After that, I guess Houlahan *shrug*  Street and Fetterman are awful candidates though.  Arkoosh seems a bit like bargain basement Houlahan.  

All I'm saying is 1) I'm not yet convinced Lamb is gonna be another Sinema/Manchin if elected and want to wait and see what firm policy commitments he makes during the primaries; and 2) I do think there is a legitimate electability argument to be made for him (at least more so than there is for any of the other major candidates currently running).  

We’re still making electability arguments? Even when several progressive Democrats overperformed Biden and quite a few moderate Democrats (including Lamb) underperformed him? I could easily see Lamb being a Patrick Murphy-esque dud as a Senate candidate, so I don’t get why people are so sure he’d be such a terrific candidate, but either way, primaries should be about who has the best ideas and is the best at selling them, i.e. a time for debate, not a time to shut down the debate because we “know” who the most electable candidate is. I’d obviously prefer Lamb to a Republican, but Democrats should not want another Sinema in the Senate.

Which progressive Democrats that you are aware of overperformed Biden? I'm aware of Lamb's underperformance-which is why I'm not so sure that he would be the best (or better) candidate for Democrats here.

The best example is in Pennsylvania: Matt Cartwright. While his overperformance wasn’t as impressive as previous ones, it’s clear he still has some crossover appeal. There are some others (DeFazio, Jones, Kim is part of the CPC), but I think it’s clear that ideology is not the key factor in electoral performance.

Not sure which Jones you mean (if it is Doug Jones, he got destroyed in the GE once he ran against a normal Republican), but I wouldn't call Andy Kim a Berniecrat or even necessarily a progressive.  He seems like a pretty generic Obama-era establishment Democrat.

[The Undefeatable Debbie Stabenow]

We’re still making electability arguments? Even when several progressive Democrats overperformed Biden and quite a few moderate Democrats (including Lamb) underperformed him? I could easily see Lamb being a Patrick Murphy-esque dud as a Senate candidate, so I don’t get why people are so sure he’d be such a terrific candidate, but either way, primaries should be about who has the best ideas and is the best at selling them, i.e. a time for debate, not a time to shut down the debate because we “know” who the most electable candidate is. I’d obviously prefer Lamb to a Republican, but Democrats should not want another Sinema in the Senate.

I mean, if we're making arguments about who is best at effectively selling their views then WWC LARPer John Fetterman shouldn't even be seriously considered for the nomination.  I mean, he's run a pretty weak campaign, already proven himself a lazy candidate who regularly takes votes for granted (to say nothing of his disastrous handling of the shotgun controversy).  

I've always said I'd much prefer Cartwright to Lamb.  My second choice would be either Lamb or Kenyatta, but I'm currently undecided between the two.  After that, I guess Houlahan *shrug*  Street and Fetterman are awful candidates though.  Arkoosh seems a bit like bargain basement Houlahan.  

All I'm saying is 1) I'm not yet convinced Lamb is gonna be another Sinema/Manchin if elected and want to wait and see what firm policy commitments he makes during the primaries; and 2) I do think there is a legitimate electability argument to be made for him (at least more so than there is for any of the other major candidates currently running).  

We’re still making electability arguments? Even when several progressive Democrats overperformed Biden and quite a few moderate Democrats (including Lamb) underperformed him? I could easily see Lamb being a Patrick Murphy-esque dud as a Senate candidate, so I don’t get why people are so sure he’d be such a terrific candidate, but either way, primaries should be about who has the best ideas and is the best at selling them, i.e. a time for debate, not a time to shut down the debate because we “know” who the most electable candidate is. I’d obviously prefer Lamb to a Republican, but Democrats should not want another Sinema in the Senate.

Which progressive Democrats that you are aware of overperformed Biden? I'm aware of Lamb's underperformance-which is why I'm not so sure that he would be the best (or better) candidate for Democrats here.

The best example is in Pennsylvania: Matt Cartwright. While his overperformance wasn’t as impressive as previous ones, it’s clear he still has some crossover appeal. There are some others (DeFazio, Jones, Kim is part of the CPC), but I think it’s clear that ideology is not the key factor in electoral performance.

Not sure which Jones you mean (if it is Doug Jones, he got destroyed in the GE once he ran against a normal Republican), but I wouldn't call Andy Kim a Berniecrat or even necessarily a progressive.  He seems like a pretty generic Obama-era establishment Democrat.

Mondaire Jones, I'm assuming. Outperformed Biden by about 3%; I don't really find that to be very significant in a safe D district, but their the point about ideology not clearly correlating with electoral fortunes stands.

[Buffalo Mayor Young Kim]

Lamb’s alleged moderate heroism seems to be entirely built around a single vote on what is, let’s be honest, a niche issue.

Yeah, I’m not super worried about it.

[Lognog]

Lamb’s alleged moderate heroism seems to be entirely built around a single vote on what is, let’s be honest, a niche issue.

Yeah, I’m not super worried about it.

This.

also, him pretending to be moderate on abortion

[free my dawg]

Lamb’s alleged moderate heroism seems to be entirely built around a single vote on what is, let’s be honest, a niche issue.

Yeah, I’m not super worried about it.

On an issue that happens to be one of the few that doesn't hurt him electorally. Not to mention the decision to justify that "single vote" using moderate hero logic - the only one to do so in the caucus.

Your point is the same point I just shot down.

[S019]

https://mobile.twitter.com/Logan_Ratick/status/1389694573941862404


Rescenthaler endorses Parnell

[Progressive Pessimist]

https://mobile.twitter.com/Logan_Ratick/status/1389694573941862404


Rescenthaler endorses Parnell

Lamb-Parnell rematch?

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Wolf has a 53% approvals just like Evers and the two seats are strongly leaning D as I said before, D's performance matches that of approvals of Prez party and along with NH, Hassan in the Change Research poll had a 55% Approvals

Likely D with Fetterman or Lamb

[Lambsbread]

https://mobile.twitter.com/Logan_Ratick/status/1389694573941862404


Rescenthaler endorses Parnell

Wow, very good for D’s that Reschenthaler is (apparently) staying out. A bunch of failed Congressional candidates vying for the Republican nomination in a “who can kiss Trump’s ass the hardest” competition will be hilarious.

[Xing]

We’re still making electability arguments? Even when several progressive Democrats overperformed Biden and quite a few moderate Democrats (including Lamb) underperformed him? I could easily see Lamb being a Patrick Murphy-esque dud as a Senate candidate, so I don’t get why people are so sure he’d be such a terrific candidate, but either way, primaries should be about who has the best ideas and is the best at selling them, i.e. a time for debate, not a time to shut down the debate because we “know” who the most electable candidate is. I’d obviously prefer Lamb to a Republican, but Democrats should not want another Sinema in the Senate.

I mean, if we're making arguments about who is best at effectively selling their views then WWC LARPer John Fetterman shouldn't even be seriously considered for the nomination.  I mean, he's run a pretty weak campaign, already proven himself a lazy candidate who regularly takes votes for granted (to say nothing of his disastrous handling of the shotgun controversy).  

I’d agree that Fetterman’s campaign hasn’t been great so far, but I think the electability argument is used more against Kenyatta, who I’d be perfectly happy with.