PA-SN 2022 megathread: Shrek vs. The Wizard of Oz

[Pericles]

I don't understand why so many red avatars are trashing Sean Parnell... he came very close to unseat Lamb despite the race being rated by most pundits as Likely D if not even Safe D, also he is a good fundraiser and has a good resume, in a neutral year / non dem leaning year he would be favoured against all the potential democratic candidates.

I mean, he essentially did the same as Trump. It was mostly the Trump effect imo, added with a few split ticket voters to keep a "check" on Biden.

In 2022 if the electorate that comes out to vote would have voted Biden by say 5 points it's a Dem win almost no matter what, and if it's an electorate that would have voted for Trump that seat is probably voting for the Republican candidate.

[Pericles]

Senate control doesn't matter for legislation without the House, which is Likely R. The plus side of Senate control is that Democrats can fill a Supreme Court vacancy and control other confirmations, plus if the House flips back in 2024 (which depends partly on redistricting and the size of the likely 2022 Republican majority), then Democrats get another two years to pass bills. Though the Senate map in 2024 is not great, so result that would really taunt Democrats would be losing the House in 2022 while keeping the Senate, then regaining the House in 2024 while losing the Senate.

[Pericles]

How winnable is Lamb's new seat without an incumbent? I think Fetterman is the best senate candidate and the one I most want to win. He's the kind of progressive who can actually work to get something done because he appears to be someone who's a more integrating figure and not a divider. Furthermore, he has an interesting life story. Since congress should include people from all walks of life, his voice would be a very good addition.

Biden and Lamb both won that district by 2 points. Sean Parnell may have been a strong opponent (Keith Rothfus and Rick Saccone certainly weren't)

[Pericles]

Parnell lost to Lamb 49-51 when Trump lost the same seat 48-51. This doesn't seem like an especially impressive result (especially given that House Rs lost by 3 points while Trump lost by 5, so Parnell out-performed Trump by less than the normal candidate), but it also doesn't seem very disastrous. I think Parnell is going to perform at about the level of Generic R, and I think even if the midterm is very forgiving to Democrats that'll still be good enough for the GOP to hold PA.

Nitpicking here but 4.45% (or 4.46%?) really shouldn't be rounded up to 5%, it's more accurate to say he lost by 4%.

[Pericles]

Lamb looks like a winning candidate. Logically a young, fresh candidate with his profile and moderate image is likely to do well. I don't think he'd be 'right-wing' or anything like that, hell he's promised to get rid of the filibuster and his messaging seems clear to me that he'll help get the Biden agenda through. The other candidates seem cool too, though I do wonder with Fetterman if he's too much of an upper-class stereotype of a working class person. I doubt it will matter much though, if it's a normal midterm the Republican wins by a few points. If 2022 is a surprisingly Democratic year, then maybe the nominee makes the difference between a 0.5% loss and a 0.5% win.

[Pericles]

Lamb beat Saccone in a Trump +20% district and then won by double digits in a Trump 2016 district. His 2020 performance was not as strong, but it was still good and overall he has a good electoral record.

[Pericles]

Fetterman is a Randy Bryce 2.0, a carciture of a working class democrat that all metropolitan democrats think is exactly what they need to win back rural and working class areas due to this aesthetics despite his policy and rethoric being indistrigushable from a normal progressive. and are then suprised when he flops among those voters.

Fetterman's main issue seems to be legal weed which while broadly popular isn't really an important issue that will allow him to make gains among trump voters. He has never run in actual competitive election beyond his LG primary where he was the sole western PA canidate against 4 philly canidates and his braddock mayor primary.  Braddock is a town that gave Joe Biden 90% of their vote, so it's hardly any indication of cross-over support.

Connor Lamb on the other hand flipped a trump +20% district against a fairly normal repubclain candidate and won another Trump district by double digits in 2018 an incredibly strong perfomance. Even in 2020 his vote share was higher than Biden showing proof that he is able to win over trump and non-democratic voters, despite his margin being lower due to his republcian opponent outperforming trump.

This! People think Fetterman is some electoral juggernaut, when he’s just a progressive with a beard

I don't think Fetterman is an electoral titan, but aesthetics are a pretty big part of politics these days, and not something you can completely dismiss in a crowded primary

The aesthetic might be over the top though.

[Pericles]

It's funny how many people think Vigilante Shrek has this is in the bag. LOL.

If "Vigilante Shrek" is Fetterman, I'm not one of them. Pennsylvania being 3 points to the right of the nation + a slightly R-leaning national environment = Parnell winning by up to 5 points.

I presume he meant in the primary.

[Pericles]

Oh Parnell is one of those people that just from looking at them my gut reaction is to dislike them.

[Pericles]

"At least one" credible Republican is considering jumping in to stop Parnell.

I'm thinking someone like Smucker or Meuser who hasn't worked to antagonize Trump.

Isn't Meuser getting drawn out anyway? He might as well run for Senate then.

[Pericles]

Well, good luck. We deserve to lose if we nominate Lamb.

I don't see what's so bad about Lamb-maybe he cast a few votes people don't like but I think he's pretty close to what a good Democratic candidate looks like and he has a pretty good electoral record of his own.

[Pericles]

Honestly, Fetterman's a terrible candidate at this point. I'm for this, even if I agree with Fetterman more on policy. The most important thing is winning. Of course, it's not likely than any Democrat can beat any Republican in Pennsylvania this year.

Boo hoo. It's either us or McCormick/Oz.

We're tired of out-of-touch politicians deciding who the best nominee is. We're especially tired of voting for Democrats that campaign like Democrats, grift and leech off our ideas, and vote like Republicans. We're also tired of the increasingly sportsified approach Democrats have taken to elections. Cool, you won an election. What's the point when you can't pass a bill because you elected a bunch of serial flip-floppers whose loyalty lies with rich donors?

This is an unhealthy attitude to have. It is Democratic voters who have the same good intentions as you that decide who the nominee is.

[Pericles]

The white working class voted for Tom wolf not Fetterman who has no general election accomplishment at all.

Cope and seethe

The "Articulate" Left at work here

It's not our fault your candidate is the worst Senate candidate in recent memory.

Ah, yes. That idiot exists - can't believe that was almost 5 years ago.

Considering everything Lamb is probably the worst Democratic Senate candidate in recent memory. I thought he was grossly overrated from the get-go but holy f**k I did not expect him to go that far

Mandela Barnes, Alan Grayson, and Cal Cunningham say hi

Cal Cunningham was perfectly fine, if he hadn't gotten caught until after the election he probably would've outrun the top of the ticket and won. Even after getting caught, he ran essentially even with Biden. Don't see how that is a 'weak' candidate.

I'd also argue that not voting for somebody due to that person having a consensual affair is a really stupid reason to change your vote. But unfortunately that is the society we live in and yes he should've known better (or gotten luckier).

As for Barnes and Grayson - neither has even won a primary yet or been a nominee. Don't see how we can declare them to be terrible candidates just yet.

I'd argue the objective worst D candidate in recent memory is Sara Gideon, who managed to lose by 8 while Biden was winning her state by 9. Even Strickland didn't get outrun by the top of the ticket by 17 points.

I don't see how having more affairs would have been a vote-winner.

[Pericles]

Is McCormick still in this?

[Pericles]

If you pay attention to political campaigns, you're supposed to be bored to death by the repetition of their talking points, because that means normal people will absorb it a few times.

[Pericles]

What a scumbag Dr Oz is. Biden and Fetterman should take him behind the gym.

[Pericles]

Republicans are counting on the cost of living getting people to vote for them, they should at least not promise to make it worse lol.

[Pericles]

https://twitter.com/DavidABergstein/status/1585348082119897088

Dude can you cool it on posting so many things from literal Democratic operatives? He’s the communications director of the DSCC, his job is to create Democratic biased content.

The forum at least has a pretense of objectivity. It struggles with that already, it doesn’t need to become VoteDem.

His posts are increasingly becoming white noise to me. As I said the other day, Fetterman could be comatose and in a hospital bed, hooked to life support, and Democrats - such as many on this forum - would crawl on their hands and knees over broken glass to vote for him.

Obviously Democrats would, this seat decides control of the Senate and we don't want Mitch McConnell to be Majority Leader again.

[Pericles]

https://twitter.com/DavidABergstein/status/1585348082119897088

Dude can you cool it on posting so many things from literal Democratic operatives? He’s the communications director of the DSCC, his job is to create Democratic biased content.

The forum at least has a pretense of objectivity. It struggles with that already, it doesn’t need to become VoteDem.

His posts are increasingly becoming white noise to me. As I said the other day, Fetterman could be comatose and in a hospital bed, hooked to life support, and Democrats - such as many on this forum - would crawl on their hands and knees over broken glass to vote for him.

Obviously Democrats would, this seat decides control of the Senate and we don't want Mitch McConnell to be Majority Leader again.

That makes Democrats no better than Republicans here. Just as Republicans are fully behind Herschel Walker, even in the aftermath of his scandals, so are Democrats fully behind John Fetterman, even with his health struggles. All that matters is power for both political parties.

We nominated a decent person who can do the job, it's not at all like Republicans who keep on nominating terrible people like in this very race the known quack and scammer who tortured and killed 329 dogs.

[Pericles]

https://twitter.com/JohnFetterman/status/1586385240880054273
But do the voters know Oz is from New Jersey???

I have to imagine that message is pretty ingrained in voters minds at this voice. We’ll see how much if at all it impacts how they vote.

Repetition works, voters aren't political junkies and need messages hammered home to them for them to start to get it.

[Pericles]

Does the fact that Oz still did much better than Mastriano mean there's a lot of voters who don't care if a candidate denies the 2020 election as long as they weren't at the 1/6 rally? Or is there something else I'm missing?

Mastriano was basically the guy who was your crazy, probably racist uncle that shouts conspiracy theories at Thanksgiving. Oz, while problematic in other ways, was not that.

Oz also had a higher floor because he was running for Senate and not for Governor.

[Pericles]

Not that unreasonable to believe Fetterman won’t make it past one term given (a) some of his health issues, (b) the likelihood of 2028 either marking the election of a new Republican president after eight years of Biden/Harris or the reelection of a Republican president (PA will be a must-win for the GOP by then), (c) the unusually favorable circumstances from which he benefited in 2022 and which won’t be replicated in 2028 (cartoonishly catastrophic/psychopathic opponent, strongest D midterm overperformance in nearly 100 years, localized nature of the race in a non-presidential year, GOP implosion in the gubernatorial race, Roe v. Wade decision, etc.). I can’t think of another post-2012 Senate/high-profile statewide race where the D candidate got as many breaks as Fetterman in 2022.

Obviously there’s no point in predicting anything this far out, but I would expect him and Cortez Masto to struggle quite a bit even in a neutral environment.

Come on, don't act like 2022 was a great environment for Democrats. Sure it was an embarassing underperformance for Republicans but high inflation and the midterm dynamic still played against Democrats. Democrats who won in 2022 can win again, and in a presidential year could plausibly have a better starting position.