PA-SN 2022 megathread: Shrek vs. The Wizard of Oz

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I know, I know, the comparisons are played out. But Georgia just elected a black pastor and a Jewish millennial and we're still doing the whole "Kenyatta is unelectable because he's gay and black" spiel. Give me a break.

One moment: Georgia isn't Pennsylvania

Wow really, I'd never considered that before.

Look, does anyone here have an actual reason why Fetterman is supposedly so much more electable than Kenyatta other than the fact he happens to fit our stereotype of what a white working class voter happens to look like? I can understand this argument with someone like Cartwright, who has actually had electoral overperformance in federal races before, but Fetterman's only won races in a heavily Democratic city and a crowded primary for lieutenant governor where he was the only Western Pennsylvania candidate running.

If you view swing voters in Pennsylvania as all racists and homophobes who won't vote for Kenyatta because he's a scary gay black man, then just be up front and say that.Both Kenyatta and Fetterman seem absolutely fine on policy and I'd be happy to run with either, but y'all need to actually base your arguments against Kenyatta on something more tangible than an imaginary aura of electability that Fetterman has.

unfortunately that is my belief

Very common misconception regarding PA. Anyone who's a homophobic racist in central PA hasn't voted for a Democrat since Casey in 2012 at the federal level (maybe Casey in '18 though it's more likely this hypothetical voter stayed home then). The swing voters of the Philadelphia suburbs are culturally liberal and will only become more progressive due to population growth. My childhood county of Chester has gone from Bush+10 in 2000 to Biden+17 because of the housing boom and good school districts. Just recently Democrats gained the party registration edge in Chester County for the first time ever. Voters here are repulsed by the poor handling of COVID+there's a number of young professionals who are struggling with student loan debt. Ditto for Pittsburgh metro, Pittsburgh's had a major tech boom in the past 5-10 years which is fueling population growth similar to the influx of young college grads in Colorado+Arizona.

I think the 2020 race is a true tossup regardless of whom the nominee is. Historically Democrats are at a disadvantage in PA midterms due to the New Deal Coalition of WWC and urban nonwhite base not showing up. However, they may actually have an advantage if the realignment of college-educated suburban voters holds, which would in turn require the GOP to have a phenomenal turnout effort in the rural areas of the state to have a shot of winning. Obviously PA's always gonna be a competitive state and it's gonna come down to which party can pump their base more.

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I get that some people seem to think the Democratic primary is all that matters in this race (this race seems to be the new poster child for Atlas' "Democratic candidate quality matters, all Republican candidates are clowns" shtick), but no Republican will be "toast" in a general election for federal office in PA in 2022, please get real.

the GOP primary really is under discussed here, however lack of chatter is indicative of the fact that the PA GOP doesn't really have a bench. Yes, they have two row offices now, but they're probably not the best candidates for this seat and are very green. The GOP delegation here is mostly old backbenchers with a few exceptions. It'll be quite interesting to see whom the party GOP will rally around, but there's so many unknowns as of right now.

Comparing the weak GOP bench to the field of talent that the dems have in the state: Fetterman, Kenyatta, Dean, Wild, Cartwright, Shapiro (yeah ik he's not running), Lamb, Boyle, etc

Not only that, but whoever the GOP nominee is has to walk a very fine line between winning over swing voters in the Philly burbs/Lehigh Valley/Wyoming Valley and pumping turnout in Pennsyltucky.

[sting in the rafters]

I get that some people seem to think the Democratic primary is all that matters in this race (this race seems to be the new poster child for Atlas' "Democratic candidate quality matters, all Republican candidates are clowns" shtick), but no Republican will be "toast" in a general election for federal office in PA in 2022, please get real.

the GOP primary really is under discussed here, however lack of chatter is indicative of the fact that the PA GOP doesn't really have a bench. Yes, they have two row offices now, but they're probably not the best candidates for this seat and are very green. The GOP delegation here is mostly old backbenchers with a few exceptions. It'll be quite interesting to see whom the party GOP will rally around, but there's so many unknowns as of right now.

Comparing the weak GOP bench to the field of talent that the dems have in the state: Fetterman, Kenyatta, Dean, Wild, Cartwright, Shapiro (yeah ik he's not running), Lamb, Boyle, etc

Not only that, but whoever the GOP nominee is has to walk a very fine line between winning over swing voters in the Philly burbs/Lehigh Valley/Wyoming Valley and pumping turnout in Pennsyltucky.

It's not too fine a line if you're not the incumbent and your party is seen to be out of power at the Congressional and presidential levels. They probably just need to avoid offending either group too much, as opposed to actively having to win them over.

Not necessarily. While NEPA's gotten more favorable for Rs since 2010, No R nominee is getting the margins Toomey got in the Lehigh Valley nor Philly suburbs. Which in turn means not only will they need to get super-heated Appalachian turnout, but also cut the margins in the east as well.

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I get that some people seem to think the Democratic primary is all that matters in this race (this race seems to be the new poster child for Atlas' "Democratic candidate quality matters, all Republican candidates are clowns" shtick), but no Republican will be "toast" in a general election for federal office in PA in 2022, please get real.

the GOP primary really is under discussed here, however lack of chatter is indicative of the fact that the PA GOP doesn't really have a bench. Yes, they have two row offices now, but they're probably not the best candidates for this seat and are very green. The GOP delegation here is mostly old backbenchers with a few exceptions. It'll be quite interesting to see whom the party GOP will rally around, but there's so many unknowns as of right now.

Comparing the weak GOP bench to the field of talent that the dems have in the state: Fetterman, Kenyatta, Dean, Wild, Cartwright, Shapiro (yeah ik he's not running), Lamb, Boyle, etc

Not only that, but whoever the GOP nominee is has to walk a very fine line between winning over swing voters in the Philly burbs/Lehigh Valley/Wyoming Valley and pumping turnout in Pennsyltucky.

I totally disagree. There are plenty messages that unify those groups: low taxes, strong border, defending the police.

Trumpists will certainly turnout and I could see some of the suburban R's not being offended by some generic R

Let me stress that this is a lean R race at best for dems

Will they? Turnout in rural PA would definitely make the race a tight. Ultimately PA comes down to who can turnout their base more, and that number of swing voters that are fiscally conservative/socially liberal is shrinking. The county office races in 2019 and decisive margins in 2020 from Chesco/Montco/Delco are all from those 3 counties urbanizing from the housing boom. Thing is, that voter shows up in every election. The Ds have made progress with converting former swing voters into their base, and maximizing their registration numbers with younger voters in those counties. Likewise the same trend is shown in the Harrisburg metro though that


I'm not saying the Ds will win for sure. If Rs can expand in Wilkes-Barre/Scranton area+run a true Trumpist who gets the gaudy rural numbers, then they could pull it out and unseat Cartwright. It'll be important for the economy to do well and for the Dems to deliver on their campaign promises to keep voter engagement high.

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Lamb would arguably be the strongest candidate in the general, though his stances on fracking could cost him in the primary. The ultimate question is can Lamb or Fetterman consolidate their support out west and run up the score in Wyoming/Lehigh Valley to offset Kenyatta’s advantage in Philly?

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Probably better Wild runs for her seat, whatever way the commision redraws the lines Lehigh Valley will be one of the most crucial districts for Ds to hold on to nationwide.

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Parnell almost beat Lamb, he's got a good chance in the general election.

Uh, no. Parnell lost when he honestly should have been favored, in a Trump coattails election in a very depressed WWC area. He wouldn't have a prayer in a state race.

Agreed with your reasoning though not entirely with your description of PA-17. While Beaver County most certainly has its fair share of rust and issues with deindustrialization (especially towards the Ohio border) it’s also rebounded somewhat due to the tech boom and most of the towns there have decent enough public school districts. The northern parts of Allegheny in his district are actually some of the more affluent Pittsburgh suburbs such as Franklin Park or Cranberry Township where it dips into Butler. And of course Mt Lebanon itself is one of the hidden gems of Appalachia with one of the finest public health systems in the nation.


20-30 years ago you would be right on the money, nowadays though the “very depressed WWC area” you’re looking for is more limited to Fayette or Washington County (which of course, Mr. Lamb did rather well capturing ancestrally D support in addition to the strong numbers in SW Allegheny when he first outlasted Saccone for the 18th.)

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I wouldn't be surprised if Biden endorses Lamb, assuming he endorses anyone in the primary.

Biden said the Lamb reminds him of his son Beau, which he also said about Buttigieg.

While he is more moderate than Fetterman or Kenyatta, he wouldn't be another Manchin or Sinema. He'd be more like a Booker, Klobuchar, or Gillibrand.

Biden will likely stay out of the race. Now Casey? His endorsement will be crucial if he decides to.

As for Lamb, the issue I see for him is his stance on energy. His support for natural gas could cost him in Chesco/Delco where there have been numerous problems with the Mariner East pipeline. Fetterman has flip-flopped on it since he won the Lt. Governor race in '18, rather disappointing imo.

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Its a pretty safe bet 85-90% of those who vote in the GOP primary will be Trump voters. Oz will cost the GOP in SEPA, but just afraid Oz wins because of VA/NJ-GOV's indications of Appalachian turnout. Remember, Oz wants to build the wall. For a lot of the older Dems Trump brought into the GOP, that's enough.

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The Fettermemes are going to be very funny, especially when he gets >65% in Montgomery and <45% in Luzerne.

I mean basically all you're saying is Fetterman is more popular with younger voters and professionals whereas Lamb is more popular with older voters/the industrial trades (he has the endorsements but Idk how rank-and-file will break aside from along general regional lines) so maybe who knows?

What's very poignant is Casey hasn't made an endorsement. THAT is the telling sign the state party doesn't know who they like and is fine w/letting the process play out between the 3 of them.

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If I'm reading nyt right most of the outstanding vote in GOP primary is in Bucks/Delco. In theory should be in Oz's wheelhouse but we'll see what Barnette eats from him.

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It’s Mehmet’s world and we just live in it.

Oz world! Oz world! Party time! Excellent!

In all seriousness its gonna f---ing blow when Fetterman loses in November off turnout differential alone and the consensus starts calling him damaged goods. Better not do him like Sestak.

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It’s Mehmet’s world and we just live in it.

Oz world! Oz world! Party time! Excellent!

In all seriousness its gonna f---ing blow when Fetterman loses in November off turnout differential alone and the consensus starts calling him damaged goods. Better not do him like Sestak.

Fetterman could beat Oz.  I wouldn’t call him the favorite but it’s not some unfathomable thing. 

Fetterman's standup fs aside from fracking but like dude gas is still $5,000 a gallon. 50-cent cakes are now 75-cent cakes. Nobody's gonna be able to afford to buy a house till they have their first gray hair. They can't get anything fired up to protect women's health concerns on the federal level, state level sure but you're still gonna see people suffer from the patchwork clusterf--- alone. The situation on the ground is just so unfavorable to Ds rn and even if it isn't really their fault as the incumbent party they're gonna get blamed.

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Lean R -> Lean R. Candidate quality the only reason the jawn's not Likely R.

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*snip*

This is all pretty true ref. the campaign trail. However consider the following:
1. Will PA’s electorate this November be plurality BIDEN voters or plurality TRUMP voters?
2. Which party is currently doing a better job engaging low-propensity voters?
3. Industrial revitalization illustrates the steelworkers and other industrial trades’ support but doesn’t do much for the Delaware Valley’s collective construction trades/Whole Foods wonder-breads/flower children. In addition, Fetterman must synthesize the link between Appalachian’s opiate crisis and Kensington’s. Urban Puerto Ricans swung towards Trump (or rather, Trump engaged otherwise apathetic voters) in part because he emphasized opiates+gun violence. I don’t think Oz possesses the political capital to hit Fetterman on crime however imo it’s better to sniff that out before it begins. Kenyatta said it best in the primary debate: “What about Philly”?

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Oz has attempted to hit Fetterman on crime, but he also clowned himself by focusing on the whole "Fetterman wants to release 1/3 of prisoners!" thing.

They indeed border self-parody. Consider them dog-whistling towards the bitter people clinging to guns and religion.

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Oh this isn't how averages work.

>Implying median isn't an average

Parochial Pennsylvania moment.

Tbh this might be why despite enthusiastically endorsing his platform I'm somewhat lukewarm towards Fetterman's carpetbagger appeals. Because if there's us Philly area dwellers hate more than North Jersey, it's a phuckin' Sh**tz cheese curd-gobbling Silent Hill-inspiring can-of-pop swilling groundhog-spotting PENNDOT fund-siphoning pipefitting Industrial Age-fetishizing EPA regulation-ignoring Terrible Towel-waving Cindy Crysby-worshipping Yinzer who thinks Deer Hunter was a utopia and not a tragedy.

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Fetterman must synthesize the link between Appalachian’s opiate crisis and Kensington’s. Urban Puerto Ricans swung towards Trump (or rather, Trump engaged otherwise apathetic voters) in part because he emphasized opiates+gun violence. I don’t think Oz possesses the political capital to hit Fetterman on crime however imo it’s better to sniff that out before it begins. Kenyatta said it best in the primary debate: “What about Philly”?

Just recently announced, retail theft is up 59% from last year. There have been more than 750 carjackings this year. Anybody have a nice car? Because you’re not going to have it long. More than triple the average for 2010 to 2019, and it’s heading way up, heading up in other cities that are run by Democrats also. Instead of trying to demonize half of the population, Biden and congressional Democrats should focus on stopping the killing and the bloodshed in Philadelphia and every other Democrat-run city in America, where record death and destruction is taking place every single day.

I got some Enron stock to sell y'all if you still think conservatives view the Lockean social contract (Blackstone's ratio in this particular instance) as an absolute good vis a vis merely the most convenient means (for now) to perpetuate their perceived material and sociological needs. Oz is still a clown, however Fetterman will need to substantially refute these charges if he wants NEPA's legions of Mutts Mets fans who might not buy his carpetbagger appeals.

NYT article on "Pennsylvania stakes its claim as center of the political universe":

“Perhaps no other state features as many high-stakes, competitive races, each pulsing with political currents shaping midterm campaigns across the country. The open race for governor between a right-wing political outsider and a veteran of the Democratic establishment may determine both the future of abortion rights and of free and fair elections in a large presidential swing state.”

“The personality-driven, increasingly ugly Senate contest — shaped by clashes over celebrity and elitism, crime and crudité, and a candidate’s health — could decide control of the chamber.”

https://www.nytimes.com/2022/09/02/us/politics/pennsylvania-midterm-elections.html

Joey’s itinerary next week includes unveiling his gun violence epidemic response in Wilkes-Barre. Likewise Trump will spend Labor Day Weekend bringing the World’s Largest Political College Football Tailgate^TM to the minor league Pens’ arena and play his Greatest Hits for the “Pennsylvania Trump Ticket’s” benefit. SCOTUS overreaches and inflation have clearly galvanized both voter coalitions and the respective parties are deploying as if they expect a neutral environment. We’re only getting started.

Eureka, at least some of you mamooks are getting with the program!

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Mark Canha haunts your dreams.

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Its encouraging to see Fetterman check in with Montco’s Wissahickon-hiking Always Sunny suburbs episode-inspirers to turnout the base however I gotta say it’s a bit tone-deaf holding a rally while THE BUHHHHHHRRRRRRRRRDZ were on. He’s missing a massive swath of potential voters by going opposite the Eagles just as Biden did 2 years ago when he gave a fall Sunday speech during the campaign homestretch.

In contrast Oz ran the same ad which reiterated the Greatest Hits (inflation, immigration, crime) several times during the Eagles game. Only time will tell which one moves the needle more among the Phaithful.

[sting in the rafters]

Its encouraging to see Fetterman check in with Montco’s Wissahickon-hiking Always Sunny suburbs episode-inspirers to turnout the base however I gotta say it’s a bit tone-deaf holding a rally while THE BUHHHHHHRRRRRRRRRDZ were on. He’s missing a massive swath of potential voters by going opposite the Eagles just as Biden did 2 years ago when he gave a fall Sunday speech during the campaign homestretch.

In contrast Oz ran the same ad which reiterated the Greatest Hits (inflation, immigration, crime) several times during the Eagles game. Only time will tell which one moves the needle more among the Phaithful.

What were the ads looking like overall during the game?

Tbh I dont really remember the details bc I was checking my fantasy team/had the Patriots game on my laptop but IIRC was pretty basic stuff, just highlighting what Oz’s charity did for poor black kids then pivoted to Fetterman in scary negative contrast lighting as a radical boogeyman who supports the aforementioned greatest hits.

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Was there a balance between Fetterman and Oz ads or was there more of either?

There were a couple for Oz, don't remember seeing any for Fetterman.

This (and Ryan's criticism of Vance's rally running parallel to the Ohio State-Toledo game) falsely suggests the purpose of rallies is to get people to physically show up to them; it's actually to get clips of the candidate for the evening news and social media. The only people who show up to rallies for Senate candidates (especially ones without Donald Trump at them) are psychopathically political.

Fair point, however 1) Who in the phuck was watching the evening news during the first NFL Sunday of the 2022 season and 2) You're underscoring the reason I have anxiety ab the midterms is because Rs have The World's Largest Political College Football Tailgate^TM on their side and Ds don't.

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UPDATE: Fetterman just ran a response ad to Oz's crime attacks during the 4th inning of tonight's Phightins-Marlins game showing off his tattoos which memorialize the murder victims during his mayoral tenure and claimed Oz "wouldn't last 15 seconds in Braddock."

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Fetterman's campaign re-aired the ad refuting Oz's public safety attacks during the 1st-quarter break of the PSU-Auburn game right after State forced an interception. It's encouraging he understands both the way to tailor his credentials towards law-and-order voters and reach the largest audience of them. Furthermore, buying a 30-second ad on CBS's broadcast of the most significant non-conference game State's play this season illustrates Dems recognize the issue's importance. Good stuff.