PA-SN 2022 megathread: Shrek vs. The Wizard of Oz

[sting in the rafters]

Lamb would arguably be the strongest candidate in the general, though his stances on fracking could cost him in the primary. The ultimate question is can Lamb or Fetterman consolidate their support out west and run up the score in Wyoming/Lehigh Valley to offset Kenyatta’s advantage in Philly?

[Zaybay]

Conventional wisdom would suggest that this is very good news for Kenyatta, no? Fetterman needed to do well in the western part of the state, but this is Lamb's geographic base as well and so they'll presumably split the vote there while Kenyatta runs up margins in the Philadelphia area.

This would be true...if Kenyatta was the only Philly/SEPA candidate in the race. So far he's splitting Philly with Sharif Street (state senator and vice chair of the state party), and splitting the region with a bunch of other candidates, almost all of whom are from Montgomery County (Val Arkoosh, Alexandria Khalil, John McGuigan).

In all honesty, Kenyatta himself seems to have completely fallen off the radar on this race. His fundraising haul is atrocious ($374,000 in Q1) and he's been losing out on local endorsements to Street and statewide endorsements to the other candidates. I doubt he's the main opposition to Fetterman at this point.

[brucejoel99]

Lamb is likely to run.

Ughhh...

[Skill and Chance]

If he can get through the primary, he'll be formidable. Much stronger than Fetterman.

Yes, Fetterman is a disaster waiting to happen.

[ctherainbow]

Gee thanks, Conor.  We reeeeeeeeeeeally needed to lose that House seat.   

[Spectator]

Gee thanks, Conor.  We reeeeeeeeeeeally needed to lose that House seat.   

That House seat was flipping no matter what unless they split Pittsburgh.

[ctherainbow]

Gee thanks, Conor.  We reeeeeeeeeeeally needed to lose that House seat.   

That House seat was flipping no matter what unless they split Pittsburgh.

Nah, you can scrape the south/east burbs off Pitt and give Doyle the conservative northern suburbs instead.  Pittsburgh city can stay whole and Doyle keeps a Dem seat, while Conor could remain in a Tossup seat.

[The Undefeatable Debbie Stabenow]

Conventional wisdom would suggest that this is very good news for Kenyatta, no? Fetterman needed to do well in the western part of the state, but this is Lamb's geographic base as well and so they'll presumably split the vote there while Kenyatta runs up margins in the Philadelphia area.

This would be true...if Kenyatta was the only Philly/SEPA candidate in the race. So far he's splitting Philly with Sharif Street (state senator and vice chair of the state party), and splitting the region with a bunch of other candidates, almost all of whom are from Montgomery County (Val Arkoosh, Alexandria Khalil, John McGuigan).

In all honesty, Kenyatta himself seems to have completely fallen off the radar on this race. His fundraising haul is atrocious ($374,000 in Q1) and he's been losing out on local endorsements to Street and statewide endorsements to the other candidates. I doubt he's the main opposition to Fetterman at this point.

Somehow I completely missed that Street was in the race. Yeah, that makes sense then.

[Lief 🗽]

Extremely good news. Fetterman's campaign has been a total dud. Lamb would be a very strong statewide candidate, maybe our only hope of pulling off the upset here.

[RussFeingoldWasRobbed]

Maybe a good sign for HR1..... Maybe???

[Mr.Phips]

Maybe a good sign for HR1..... Maybe???

Umm how?

[Pericles]

Senate control doesn't matter for legislation without the House, which is Likely R. The plus side of Senate control is that Democrats can fill a Supreme Court vacancy and control other confirmations, plus if the House flips back in 2024 (which depends partly on redistricting and the size of the likely 2022 Republican majority), then Democrats get another two years to pass bills. Though the Senate map in 2024 is not great, so result that would really taunt Democrats would be losing the House in 2022 while keeping the Senate, then regaining the House in 2024 while losing the Senate.

[free my dawg]

If the apparatus backs Lamb, it will mark my point of no return with the Democratic Party. Manchinism must be stopped if the party is truly interested in making policy.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

If the apparatus backs Lamb, it will mark my point of no return with the Democratic Party. Manchinism must be stopped if the party is truly interested in making policy.

If D's go out 53 seats, Manchin would vote for DC Statehood, he is only opposing DC Statehood due to fact D's as of now lack votes to end Filibuster

This is a Lean D takeover along with WI and GA and NH and OH Lean D I if you go by polls, PPP has Nelson, Evers leading and Ryan tied. I expect in a wave a 52/47 Senate and GA going to a Runoff and Manchin votes for Statehood after D's get rid of Filibuster after 2022

Lamb or Fetterman can win, but Fetterman is the nominee

[Epaminondas]

At what point in the year is it too late for Lamb to back out and remain in his seat?

[President Johnson]

How winnable is Lamb's new seat without an incumbent? I think Fetterman is the best senate candidate and the one I most want to win. He's the kind of progressive who can actually work to get something done because he appears to be someone who's a more integrating figure and not a divider. Furthermore, he has an interesting life story. Since congress should include people from all walks of life, his voice would be a very good addition.

[Pericles]

How winnable is Lamb's new seat without an incumbent? I think Fetterman is the best senate candidate and the one I most want to win. He's the kind of progressive who can actually work to get something done because he appears to be someone who's a more integrating figure and not a divider. Furthermore, he has an interesting life story. Since congress should include people from all walks of life, his voice would be a very good addition.

Biden and Lamb both won that district by 2 points. Sean Parnell may have been a strong opponent (Keith Rothfus and Rick Saccone certainly weren't)

[Blair]

I'm aware this must be a dumb take but how much is the geographic divide an issue?

I'd always assume that a well funded frontrunner with endorsements (see Lamb or Fetterman) can basically overperform? 

[Lambsbread]

I'm aware this must be a dumb take but how much is the geographic divide an issue?

I'd always assume that a well funded frontrunner with endorsements (see Lamb or Fetterman) can basically overperform? 

It’s pretty big. PA voters have a tendency to vote for the person closest to them. When Fetterman won the Lt Gov primary in 2018, I believe he was the only (or one of the only) candidates from Western PA on the ballot, which is most of the reason why he won. We’re a bunch of weirdos out here.

Sure, money and endorsements may help but how many people really care who their state senator endorses for a race? Unless one of them nets Wolf, Casey, or Biden...it won’t really matter all that much.

[Chancellor Tanterterg]

If the apparatus backs Lamb, it will mark my point of no return with the Democratic Party. Manchinism must be stopped if the party is truly interested in making policy.

Let’s see if the primary moves him to the left first.  I mean, he supports $15 minimum wage so that already puts him ahead of some Democratic Senators.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Lol Fetterman has the stamina to withstand Keyanetta or Lamb, have you seen Fetterman on TV he is tough just like Bob Casey Jr, he will withstand a Lamb or Keyanetta challenge and should because if we lose PA without Fetterman, we can kiss the Senate goidbye


FETTERMAN IS OUR NOMINEE AS I SAID BEFORE, HE ISNT LOSING AND ON CSPAN, CALLERS SAID THEY ARE VOTING FOR FETTERMAN, PA

[Chancellor Tanterterg]

If the apparatus backs Lamb, it will mark my point of no return with the Democratic Party. Manchinism must be stopped if the party is truly interested in making policy.

At least Manchin consistently overperformed top-of-the-ticket Democrats.

Lamb over-performed quite a bit in both the special and the 2018 GE.  In 2020, unlike most congressional Democrats in tough districts, he matched Biden’s showing IIRC.  Plus, every election he’s run in was a competitive race and he’s currently three for three.  I get not trusting him for ideological reasons - although I don’t think he’d be as bad as Sinema, Manchin, or even Maggie Hassen - and I’d even want him to commit to some things like nuking the filibuster. 

That said, while he’s not a Cartwright-level over-performer, he has an excellent electoral track record and is a good fit for PA.  And I don’t see how one can argue Lamb would be less electable than Fetterman, Kenyatta, or Street.  Maybe we don’t need Lamb to win and it isn’t worth the ideological tradeoff, but he’s definitely the strongest candidate currently running from an electability standpoint.

[Roll Roons]

If the apparatus backs Lamb, it will mark my point of no return with the Democratic Party. Manchinism must be stopped if the party is truly interested in making policy.

At least Manchin consistently overperformed top-of-the-ticket Democrats.

Lamb over-performed quite a bit in both the special and the 2018 GE.  In 2020, unlike most congressional Democrats in tough districts, he matched Biden’s showing IIRC.  Plus, every election he’s run in was a competitive race and he’s currently three for three.  I get not trusting him for ideological reasons - although I don’t think he’d be as bad as Sinema, Manchin, or even Maggie Hassen - and I’d even want him to commit to some things like nuking the filibuster. 

That said, while he’s not a Cartwright-level over-performer, he has an excellent electoral track record and is a good fit for PA.  And I don’t see how one can argue Lamb would be less electable than Fetterman, Kenyatta, or Street.  Maybe we don’t need Lamb to win and it isn’t worth the ideological tradeoff, but he’s definitely the strongest candidate currently running from an electability standpoint.

Yes. On his own, Fetterman has never won an election for anything higher than mayor of a small town. Street and Kenyatta have only won in extremely blue state legislative districts, and may have trouble running in a statewide race where they'll have to appeal to moderate and conservative-leaning voters.

[TiltsAreUnderrated]

If the apparatus backs Lamb, it will mark my point of no return with the Democratic Party. Manchinism must be stopped if the party is truly interested in making policy.

At least Manchin consistently overperformed top-of-the-ticket Democrats.

Lamb over-performed quite a bit in both the special and the 2018 GE.  In 2020, unlike most congressional Democrats in tough districts, he matched Biden’s showing IIRC.  Plus, every election he’s run in was a competitive race and he’s currently three for three.  I get not trusting him for ideological reasons - although I don’t think he’d be as bad as Sinema, Manchin, or even Maggie Hassen - and I’d even want him to commit to some things like nuking the filibuster.  

That said, while he’s not a Cartwright-level over-performer, he has an excellent electoral track record and is a good fit for PA.  And I don’t see how one can argue Lamb would be less electable than Fetterman, Kenyatta, or Street.  Maybe we don’t need Lamb to win and it isn’t worth the ideological tradeoff, but he’s definitely the strongest candidate currently running from an electability standpoint.

Not in terms of margin, but I deleted my post because he managed to do better than the average House Democratic candidate's underperformance.

I don't think he'd be the weakest candidate PA Dems could put up, but I'm not convinced he's more electable than the Lt Gov.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

WI, PA, NH are Lean D, Change Research has Nelson and Evers leading in WI and had Hassan at 55 percent Approvals and Fetterman is gonna win in PA, that clinched the Senate, GA, IA, OH, NC give us wave insurance and GA is a Runoff anyways and POP has Ryan tied