2020 Presidential Election Results & Exit Polls commentary thread

[jimrtex]

They don't have to meet in the capital. New York electors used to meet in Hudson, and Alaska electors have met in Anchorage.

Yeah I remembered that wrong, sorry.

If they were that good, they would also know that the other candidates would get 1.5% of the vote. It is idiotic to believe that they thought the other vote could end up 0.5% or 2.5% but no matter what Biden would eke out a win.

If you believe that they had a 99.5% confidence interval, then you acknowledge they were using statistical methods and not just going on a hunch. If so, their statisticians had a mean estimate and a standard deviation. It is unbelievably unlikely that it would be less than 0.1%.

You can literally make this argument about any call any news organization has ever made. "If they're that good they could have just estimated the percentage. Oh look, the result was closer than I was expecting based on the quick call, no way they could have gotten it so close. Why didn't they give me the percentages?"

Yes they were using statistical methods, unless they are outright liars, and I don't believe they are.

If they predicted that it would 5% +/- 4%, and other organizations predicted that it would be 3% +/-4% or even 1% +/-4%. The others would have held off because they were not certain, even though their estimates were more correct, and Fox's would have been outside the actual result.

[jimrtex]

Note: In some cases the latest voting data may be delayed, and as more fraud is reported and analysed the fraud numbers may continue increase. We have a significant amount of voting data and fraud examples that we have received and have yet to process, so expect regular updates.

Did Trump put this website together himself? It's doing that thing where it keys in on one word and uses it ad nauseum. 

"Sure there's fraud.  Lots of fraud.  Even the smallest examples of fraud are huge examples of fraud.  All part of the fraud hoax.  All a hoax." 

Our election was hijacked by #BigFatFraud. There is no question. Congress has a duty to #ProtectOurDemocracyFromFraud & #FollowTheFactsNotTheFraud. #SAD #iWonTheElection


https://twitter.com/SpeakerPelosi/status/864522009048494080

Hey Russian Bear, you didn't notice that Pelosi tweet was from 2017. She was talking about the 2016 election.

[Non Swing Voter]

https://twitter.com/NPR/status/1329092381480800256

The blue spots on that map represent major economic hubs.  The red expanse is mostly decaying parts of the country living off the grift while unironically deriding socialism.

[jimrtex]

Yes the Bradley effect, after Tom Bradley the Black mayor of Los Angeles, who twice failed to be elected Governor despite polls saying he would win. But the consensus seems to be that is not what is happening now. What is happening now is that Republicans simply refuse to engage with polls - they hang up when a poll calls them, whether it's a live call or a robocall. They do this for the same reason they no longer watch the network news or read newspapers. They have retreated into Trumpworld, a fantasy world where they can believe their own facts, and they won't let anyone in from the real world outside. That's also the only possible explanation for 70 million people voting for the most disastrous failure in the history of US government.

What kind of person engages with robocalls?

Overall, completion of polling calls is around 10%.

If Democrats, get a polling call for a dead relative, they go ahead and answer because they are afraid their social security fraud will be detected.

[Non Swing Voter]

Right now the popular vote is essentially tied WITHOUT New York or California included. 

With so many uncounted ballots in blue states it's likely that Biden won the popular vote without either of those states.  I'm wondering if it's possible Biden won the popular vote without NY, CA or IL included.

 These statements are silly. We're the United States of America. Where Biden gets his huge PV margin from doesn't matter. It would be like saying take away all of Trump's EV wins in Texas, Florida, and Ohio and he'd be a huge loser.

no it's not at all silly because it shows how out of whack the electoral college has become.  It's also not silly because states have literally been divided in the past to change the senate/EC makeup for this very reason.  it's only "silly" if you just blindly look at electoral results without the context.  hope that better informs you.

 I agree the electoral college is trash. But Biden's margins should be respected, he was a huge popular vote winner. If Trump had the same PV win he would never shut up about it, never.

THAT WAS MY ENTIRE POINT!  Even if you took away Biden's 2 or 3 biggest states he STILL wins the popular vote...

[jimrtex]

It's all a grift. Trump can fleece his supporters. The campaign staff can please their boss by claiming we still have a path forward. The lawyers get lucrative billable hours for doing nothing. Why bother stopping?

Who paid for the Wisconsin recount in 2016?

[KaiserDave]

Anyone else noticing that Biden has gradually built a near 100k lead in PA?

He now leads by 1.2%

[wbrocks67]

Anyone else noticing that Biden has gradually built a near 100k lead in PA?

He now leads by 1.2%

Yep, latest count is +82,230. Though it probably won't grow a *ton* more - maybe 85K-ish? Philly is done and I think Allegheny is either done or nearly complete. They threw a couple more mail ins today I think that were a bit more R leaning than before.

[wbrocks67]

Looks like final certified count in Michigan didn't change much, as expected, Biden still at +2.7.

Joe Biden 2,797,407 (50.57%)
Donald Trump 2,650,498 (47.91%)

[Bootes Void]

Senator Bob Casey said Biden should win by around 100k, seems on the money

[Mike88]

So far, of the ballots dumped today from Ohio, Trump is now slightly leading Biden:

Trump +69,401
Biden +68,921

The margin on election night was 470,737, and now it's 471,217

[iceman]

Question: will Trump get to 1 Million votes in Maryland?

[BudgieForce]

So far, of the ballots dumped today from Ohio, Trump is now slightly leading Biden:

Trump +69,401
Biden +68,921

The margin on election night was 470,737, and now it's 471,217

So these are late mail in ballots and provisional? Surprising, but I guess it makes sense.

[Mike88]

Looks like final certified count in Michigan didn't change much, as expected, Biden still at +2.7.

Joe Biden 2,797,407 (50.57%)
Donald Trump 2,650,498 (47.91%)

According to the Cook popular vote tally, Biden picked up 9,492 votes and Trump 772:

Joe Biden 2,806,899 (50.64%)
Donald Trump 2,651,270 (47.84%)

[Mike88]

So far, of the ballots dumped today from Ohio, Trump is now slightly leading Biden:

Trump +69,401
Biden +68,921

The margin on election night was 470,737, and now it's 471,217

So these are late mail in ballots and provisional? Surprising, but I guess it makes sense.

Yep, that's right.

[wbrocks67]

Looks like final certified count in Michigan didn't change much, as expected, Biden still at +2.7.

Joe Biden 2,797,407 (50.57%)
Donald Trump 2,650,498 (47.91%)

According to the Cook popular vote tally, Biden picked up 9,492 votes and Trump 772:

Joe Biden 2,806,899 (50.64%)
Donald Trump 2,651,270 (47.84%)

Oh nice, so DDHQ is outdated. Biden +2.8 then!

[wbrocks67]

So far, of the ballots dumped today from Ohio, Trump is now slightly leading Biden:

Trump +69,401
Biden +68,921

The margin on election night was 470,737, and now it's 471,217

So these are late mail in ballots and provisional? Surprising, but I guess it makes sense.

Yep, that's right.

I'm surprised the late mail-ins are skewing that GOP.

[n1240]

So far, of the ballots dumped today from Ohio, Trump is now slightly leading Biden:

Trump +69,401
Biden +68,921

The margin on election night was 470,737, and now it's 471,217

So these are late mail in ballots and provisional? Surprising, but I guess it makes sense.

Yep, that's right.

I'm surprised the late mail-ins are skewing that GOP.

Most late vote being counted is provisional though, it's a 5:1 prov/mail ratio in Cuyahoga and could be higher in smaller counties. Late mail still does have a slight GOP skew relative to mail as a whole though.

[n1240]

Trump's margin in MS is now lower than it was in 2016 (currently 17%, was 17.8%) with Washington and Hinds certifying their election results.

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

LMAO.

https://twitter.com/nycsouthpaw/status/1329200499652956160?s=19

[Co-Chair Bagel23]

Bruh, someone needs to tell this pube head haired rand paul lookin dude that it's over lol.

[GeorgiaModerate]

https://twitter.com/kaitlancollins/status/1329186575901732866

[KaiserDave]

Bruh, someone needs to tell this pube head haired rand paul lookin dude that it's over lol.

That's just sad. Just....really sad.

[Hammy]

LMAO.

[snip]

Aren't there criminal penalties for fraudulent lawsuits?

[Co-Chair Bagel23]

Bruh, someone needs to tell this pube head haired rand paul lookin dude that it's over lol.

That's just sad. Just....really sad.

There aint nothing sad about citing predict unironically lmfao