2020 Presidential Election Results & Exit Polls commentary thread

[n1240]

NY absentee update:

Biden 220638 (74.2%)
Trump 71209 (23.9%)
Total 297539
Margin of 50.2%, average weighted final eday margin of Trump +.1%, so average swing of 50.3%.

Excluding Monroe and Nassau:

Biden 74865 (72.1%)
Trump 26782 (25.8%)
Total 103828
Margin of 46.3%, averaged weighted final eday margin of Trump+10%, so average swing of 56.3%.

[wbrocks67]

NY absentee update:

Biden 220638 (74.2%)
Trump 71209 (23.9%)
Total 297539
Margin of 50.2%, average weighted final eday margin of Trump +.1%, so average swing of 50.3%.

Excluding Monroe and Nassau:

Biden 74865 (72.1%)
Trump 26782 (25.8%)
Total 103828
Margin of 46.3%, averaged weighted final eday margin of Trump+10%, so average swing of 56.3%.

Seems like Biden on track to top Hillary's +22.5 margin statewide?

[roxas11]

Yes the Bradley effect, after Tom Bradley the Black mayor of Los Angeles, who twice failed to be elected Governor despite polls saying he would win. But the consensus seems to be that is not what is happening now. What is happening now is that Republicans simply refuse to engage with polls - they hang up when a poll calls them, whether it's a live call or a robocall. They do this for the same reason they no longer watch the network news or read newspapers. They have retreated into Trumpworld, a fantasy world where they can believe their own facts, and they won't let anyone in from the real world outside. That's also the only possible explanation for 70 million people voting for the most disastrous failure in the history of US government.

I think a simpler explanation is that the Fake News coming from social media sites like facebook was way more effective than many could have possibly imagined.  

I can't tell you how many times this year a family member would come up to me and tell me about some Big news story they saw on facebook. 80 percent of the time it was about some idiot Doctor telling them that Covid was not serious and that they should refuse to take a Covid Vaccine because it secretly the Mark of the Beast lol

The reality is this is where many people are getting thier news these days and This is why polls are kind of worthless because even if the voter was telling the truth the day they polled him

That same voter can just as easily start buying into the BS News that they are reading on facebook and other social media sites

[Tender Branson]

Sorry for triple post, but Biden officially crosses 51.0% on the Cook tracker.

Joe Biden 79,251,116 (51.0%)
Donald Trump 73,437,806 (47.2%)

Biden lead: +5,813,310 (3.8%)

I’m wondering what additional info the people from Cook have that Atlas Dave does not have ...

Cook has ca. 250.000 votes more for Biden and 140.000 more for Trump, but fewer write-in votes.

[Gass3268]

Sorry for triple post, but Biden officially crosses 51.0% on the Cook tracker.

Joe Biden 79,251,116 (51.0%)
Donald Trump 73,437,806 (47.2%)

Biden lead: +5,813,310 (3.8%)

I’m wondering what additional info the people from Cook have that Atlas Dave does not have ...

Cook has ca. 250.000 votes more for Biden and 140.000 more for Trump, but fewer write-in votes.

Looks like Dave hasn’t updated New York in a while.

[Tender Branson]

Sorry for triple post, but Biden officially crosses 51.0% on the Cook tracker.

Joe Biden 79,251,116 (51.0%)
Donald Trump 73,437,806 (47.2%)

Biden lead: +5,813,310 (3.8%)

I’m wondering what additional info the people from Cook have that Atlas Dave does not have ...

Cook has ca. 250.000 votes more for Biden and 140.000 more for Trump, but fewer write-in votes.

Looks like Dave hasn’t updated New York in a while.

?

New York State Board of Elections. New York State Unofficial Election Night Results U.S. President > All Counties, New York State Board of Elections (https://nyenr.elections.ny.gov/home.aspx) (accessed 18 Nov 2020)

https://uselectionatlas.org/RESULTS/sources.php?year=2020&type=vot&f=1&off=0&elect=0

Is Cook using updated county data that Dave ain’t using ?

[Gass3268]

Sorry for triple post, but Biden officially crosses 51.0% on the Cook tracker.

Joe Biden 79,251,116 (51.0%)
Donald Trump 73,437,806 (47.2%)

Biden lead: +5,813,310 (3.8%)

I’m wondering what additional info the people from Cook have that Atlas Dave does not have ...

Cook has ca. 250.000 votes more for Biden and 140.000 more for Trump, but fewer write-in votes.

Looks like Dave hasn’t updated New York in a while.

?

New York State Board of Elections. New York State Unofficial Election Night Results U.S. President > All Counties, New York State Board of Elections (https://nyenr.elections.ny.gov/home.aspx) (accessed 18 Nov 2020)

https://uselectionatlas.org/RESULTS/sources.php?year=2020&type=vot&f=1&off=0&elect=0

Is Cook using updated county data that Dave ain’t using ?

Correct, just look at Nassau County, Dave still has Trump winning there.

[emailking]

https://twitter.com/realDonaldTrump/status/1329054683441278977

[Tender Branson]

And Biden will receive 15 million more votes than Hillary in 2016 ...

What’s his point ?

[ProgressiveModerate]

https://twitter.com/realDonaldTrump/status/1329054683441278977

Ah FL gets more so irked!

[Roll Roons]

https://twitter.com/Redistrict/status/1328775067334029316

Just wanted to kindly point out that Florida has a larger population than both New York and New Jersey.

I take it they're still being complete embarrassments at counting their votes?

Oh yes. NJ-07 only got called by the NJ Globe last night, and NY-22 is still undetermined.

[Panda Express]

The Nov. 13-17 opinion poll showed that Trump’s open defiance of Biden’s victory in both the popular vote and Electoral College appears to be affecting the public’s confidence in American democracy, especially among Republicans

Wouldn't be the worst thing in the world if some of these Republicans "gave up" on participating in the political process.

[Gass3268]

Biden's lead up to 6 points now in Nassau County, New York. On pace for a 9.5 point margin, which would be about 3 points larger than Clinton's.

https://twitter.com/nickgourevitch/status/1329066453455220737?s=20

[Penn_Quaker_Girl]

Biden's lead up to 6 points now in Nassau County, New York. On pace for a 9.5 point margin, which would be about 3 points larger than Clinton's.

https://twitter.com/nickgourevitch/status/1329066453455220737?s=20

How is Suffolk County looking, Gass?

[Gass3268]

Biden's lead up to 6 points now in Nassau County, New York. On pace for a 9.5 point margin, which would be about 3 points larger than Clinton's.

https://twitter.com/nickgourevitch/status/1329066453455220737?s=20

How is Suffolk County looking, Gass?

I can't find the tweet, but with the number of outstanding absentee votes and current % breakdown statewide of those votes, Biden's on the razor's edge to flip the county. It's going to be close.

[n1240]

NY absentee update:

Biden 220638 (74.2%)
Trump 71209 (23.9%)
Total 297539
Margin of 50.2%, average weighted final eday margin of Trump +.1%, so average swing of 50.3%.

Excluding Monroe and Nassau:

Biden 74865 (72.1%)
Trump 26782 (25.8%)
Total 103828
Margin of 46.3%, averaged weighted final eday margin of Trump+10%, so average swing of 56.3%.

Seems like Biden on track to top Hillary's +22.5 margin statewide?

Pretty easily, results for some counties at or near complete totals compared to 2016

Broome: Trump+2.0 -> Biden+3.4
Chautaqua: Trump+23.0 -> Trump+19.9
Columbia: Clinton+5.0 -> Biden+16.0
Cortland: Trump+5.6 -> Trump+1.9
Livingston: Trump+22.0 -> Trump+18.3
Madison: Trump+14.0 -> Trump+12.5
Monroe: Clinton+15.0 -> Biden+20.8
Otsego: Trump+11.1 -> Trump+5.0
Schuyler: Trump+22.3 -> Trump+17.6
Yates: Trump+19.9 -> Trump 18.6

As I mentioned before Biden probably does worse than Clinton in NYC but this will be offset by most of the rest of the state swinging in his direction. Only other places that could swing R are some rurals in center of the state or Rockland County.

[Splash]

Does anybody know if the Trump Campaign has put up the money for a recount in Wisconsin? Isn't today the deadline for them to pay?

[Gass3268]

Does anybody know if the Trump Campaign has put up the money for a recount in Wisconsin? Isn't today the deadline for them to pay?

Not yet, but they have until 5 PM CT today.

[Gass3268]

Biden added 9,477 votes to his lead in Franklin County, Ohio and passed 400,000 votes.

https://twitter.com/AndrewJTobias/status/1329076183867170824?s=20

[wbrocks67]

So we should theoretically have final Ohio results by 2pm today?

[GeorgiaModerate]

https://twitter.com/carlquintanilla/status/1329078299700588545

[Gass3268]

Does anybody know if the Trump Campaign has put up the money for a recount in Wisconsin? Isn't today the deadline for them to pay?

Not yet, but they have until 5 PM CT today.

https://twitter.com/johnrobertsFox/status/1329079868227682304?s=20

Looks like it's gonna happen, but they still need to submit their paper work and I think pay the fee up front.

[Sir Mohamed]

The Trump campaign so delusional with these recounts. But I have no sympathy for the people continuing to fund his campaign and their scams.

[forza nocta]

So Michigan is done? Or does the state need to certify overall? If so when will that happen.

[forza nocta]

How will the re-canvass that WI just did be different from this recount? Or is there a difference between how they count the votes in each.