2020 Presidential Election Results & Exit Polls commentary thread

[ηєω ƒяσηтιєя]

In a weird way I think we should all be thanking Trump for showing us just how weak and fragile our election system really is

He is single handedly showing us just how easily this system can be exploited and He is doing whatever he can stop a Biden win from being certified. He also has a major political party that is actively helping him do it.

The proves that we clearly need major reforms to our election system and hopefully Trump behavior is a wake up call for many Americans. The era where we automatically expect the losing candidate to accept the election results and help with a peaceful transfer of power is over...

now we are going to need to have a real plan in place in case a losing candidate wants to stop an election from being certified and refuses to give the winning candidate the vital Intel they need

Yep, you got it exactly correct. Also, a position like the GSA Administrator should NOT be held by a partisan, political appointee. The GSA and the GSA Administrator should be non-politically appointed and non-partisan.

Also, yes, many of the things that have happened in elections previously were mainly norms. However, as we all know, norms can and will be broken. A corrupt, deranged lunatic like Trump has broken those once "sacred" norms that people took for granted.

[Co-Chair Bagel23]

is it true there are still like 300k votes out in ohio

[BudgieForce]

So before anybody panics, all this does is delays Michigan's state certification.

The county has to get certified. If the County Board won't do it, than the State Board and the Secretary of State does it.

If the GOP manages to deadlock the State Board too, does the SoS have the final word?

While the question is strictly academic since the two republicans on the county board changed their mind, I'm actually not sure what would happen.

The Secretary of State implied in her statement today that the Bureau of Elections(which is run by her) would be able to step in. But I havent seen anyone back that up. It seems like one of the options would have been litigation forcing the State Board to certify, since they're legally obligated to do so. Trump supporters were under the assumption the State Assembly would step in and nominated their own electors, and I'm not sure they couldn't.

Is it now academic?  Can the state level board still block certification if it deadlocks?

I guess in theory they could, but why would they? Now that every bipartisan county board has certified or will certify, they have no reason to block anything.

[Horus]

So before anybody panics, all this does is delays Michigan's state certification.

The county has to get certified. If the County Board won't do it, than the State Board and the Secretary of State does it.

If the GOP manages to deadlock the State Board too, does the SoS have the final word?

While the question is strictly academic since the two republicans on the county board changed their mind, I'm actually not sure what would happen.

The Secretary of State implied in her statement today that the Bureau of Elections(which is run by her) would be able to step in. But I havent seen anyone back that up. It seems like one of the options would have been litigation forcing the State Board to certify, since they're legally obligated to do so. Trump supporters were under the assumption the State Assembly would step in and nominated their own electors, and I'm not sure they couldn't.

Is it now academic?  Can the state level board still block certification if it deadlocks?

I guess in theory they could, but why would they? Now that every bipartisan county board has certified, they have no reason to block anything.

Because most Republicans are evil.

[Hammy]

https://mobile.twitter.com/costareports/status/1328888520203767809

I've been saying since summer this is their goal.

Well they just folded in MI and have no real way to prevent it in PA and NV.

Not saying by any stretch they'll succeed, but I pretty much expected this was the end goal they were going for.

[Dr Oz Lost Party!]

Is there still a chance Biden cracks 60% in Allegheny?

[Annatar]

The final results in Ohio will shift the state a point towards dems but right now Trump is up 8% in Ohio and the House GOP won the vote by 14% in Ohio with every seat being contested, that is a pretty big difference of 6%, seems a lot of voters in Ohio liked Biden but also voted Republican.

[NOVA Green]

Alaska Update- 11/17/20 PM:

Trump under 10%:

Trump:    189,112    (52.5%)
Biden:     153,178    (42.6%)
TOTAL:    356,044

Trump: +2,506      (Trump +92)     Trump -0.2%
Biden:  +2,414                              Biden  +0.1%

Not sure yet which House Districts these votes came from.

[Antonio the Sixth]

Yep, you got it exactly correct. Also, a position like the GSA Administrator should NOT be held by a partisan, political appointee. The GSA and the GSA Administrator should be non-politically appointed and non-partisan.

This is a perfect illustration of why the Unitary Executive Theory is so dangerous. Parts of the state bureaucracy must imperatively be insulated from the presidency to preserve the basic workings of democracy. I know conservative hypocrisy is nothing new, but it still baffles me that "small-government" conservatives are such fans of it.

[Hammy]

https://twitter.com/Redistrict/status/1328775067334029316

Just wanted to kindly point out that Florida has a larger population than both New York and New Jersey.

I take it they're still being complete embarrassments at counting their votes?

[AGA]

Does anyone know if the NYTimes map is still being updated? Because a lot of the numbers haven't changed in a while.

[Tender Branson]

Does anyone know if the NYTimes map is still being updated? Because a lot of the numbers haven't changed in a while.

News sites usually stop updating their results after a week or so.

That’s why the US needs a national election commission and results page.

[Tender Branson]

is it true there are still like 300k votes out in ohio

More like 220-250k.

There are 320k left, but half of those are provisional ballots and historically only a handful of those get counted.

[AGA]

Does anyone know if the NYTimes map is still being updated? Because a lot of the numbers haven't changed in a while.

News sites usually stop updating their results after a week or so.

That’s why the US needs a national election commission and results page.

So should I just check state government sources?

[Tender Branson]

Does anyone know if the NYTimes map is still being updated? Because a lot of the numbers haven't changed in a while.

News sites usually stop updating their results after a week or so.

That’s why the US needs a national election commission and results page.

So should I just check state government sources?

Either that, or this page here is updated frequently as well:

https://uselectionatlas.org/RESULTS/index.html

Or here:

https://cookpolitical.com/2020-national-popular-vote-tracker?

Cook has more Biden and Trump votes than Atlas so far, but fewer 3rd party votes because Atlas shows more write-ins.

[AGA]

Does anyone know if the NYTimes map is still being updated? Because a lot of the numbers haven't changed in a while.

News sites usually stop updating their results after a week or so.

That’s why the US needs a national election commission and results page.

So should I just check state government sources?

Either that, or this page here is updated frequently as well:

https://uselectionatlas.org/RESULTS/index.html

Or here:

https://cookpolitical.com/2020-national-popular-vote-tracker?

Cook has more Biden and Trump votes than Atlas so far, but fewer 3rd party votes because Atlas shows more write-ins.

Thanks, but what about House results?

[Tender Branson]

Does anyone know if the NYTimes map is still being updated? Because a lot of the numbers haven't changed in a while.

News sites usually stop updating their results after a week or so.

That’s why the US needs a national election commission and results page.

So should I just check state government sources?

Either that, or this page here is updated frequently as well:

https://uselectionatlas.org/RESULTS/index.html

Or here:

https://cookpolitical.com/2020-national-popular-vote-tracker?

Cook has more Biden and Trump votes than Atlas so far, but fewer 3rd party votes because Atlas shows more write-ins.

Thanks, but what about House results?

https://cookpolitical.com/2020-house-vote-tracker?

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

So if that schedule is correct, by November 23 enough "disputed states" should certify for Biden for him to be above 270. Of course that'll probably "officially" become the case once Georgia finishes the recount and certifies (should happen this week) and Pennsylvania finally finishes counting for good and certifies (also should happen this week.) They've basically given up in Michigan so that should certify soon.

[(no subject)]

Yes the Bradley effect, after Tom Bradley the Black mayor of Los Angeles, who twice failed to be elected Governor despite polls saying he would win. But the consensus seems to be that is not what is happening now. What is happening now is that Republicans simply refuse to engage with polls - they hang up when a poll calls them, whether it's a live call or a robocall. They do this for the same reason they no longer watch the network news or read newspapers. They have retreated into Trumpworld, a fantasy world where they can believe their own facts, and they won't let anyone in from the real world outside. That's also the only possible explanation for 70 million people voting for the most disastrous failure in the history of US government.

[n1240]

is it true there are still like 300k votes out in ohio

150k or so assuming 5% outstanding mail return rate and 85% provisional count rate.

[wbrocks67]

Is there still a chance Biden cracks 60% in Allegheny?

Maybe a tiny bit, but depends on how much is out. Apparently there may be about ~5K mail-ins and ~5K provisionals, but unsure b/c they stopped updating DOS page of what's left and Allegheny hasn't updated anything in a few days... so not sure if they're waiting for one final dump like Philly did last night or if they're mostly done.

[wbrocks67]

Looks like NJ pulled a CO and stopped its slide to the right, and late counted ballots are trending more D. It was down to D+15.5, now back up to D+15.8.

[wbrocks67]

Sorry for triple post, but Biden officially crosses 51.0% on the Cook tracker.

Joe Biden 79,251,116 (51.0%)
Donald Trump 73,437,806 (47.2%)

Biden lead: +5,813,310 (3.8%)

[Person Man]

Yes the Bradley effect, after Tom Bradley the Black mayor of Los Angeles, who twice failed to be elected Governor despite polls saying he would win. But the consensus seems to be that is not what is happening now. What is happening now is that Republicans simply refuse to engage with polls - they hang up when a poll calls them, whether it's a live call or a robocall. They do this for the same reason they no longer watch the network news or read newspapers. They have retreated into Trumpworld, a fantasy world where they can believe their own facts, and they won't let anyone in from the real world outside. That's also the only possible explanation for 70 million people voting for the most disastrous failure in the history of US government.

How do we protect ourselves from people this untrustworthy and unreliable?

I hope that 2022 polls are as good as 2018 ones. But even then, Florida was a good mess.

[Penn_Quaker_Girl]

One thing that I think this election has made somewhat clear is that even an eight-to-ten-point county/IC win for a candidate's party in one cycle does not necessarily guarantee a win for that party in the next; just look at unexpected flips like Inyo (CA), Talbot (MD), Lynchburg (VA), the RGV gang (TX)...

It's part of what I love about national elections: there will always be surprises.