2020 Presidential Election Results & Exit Polls commentary thread

[Gass3268]

Does anybody know if the Trump Campaign has put up the money for a recount in Wisconsin? Isn't today the deadline for them to pay?

Not yet, but they have until 5 PM CT today.

https://twitter.com/johnrobertsFox/status/1329079868227682304?s=20

Looks like it's gonna happen, but they still need to submit their paper work and I think pay the fee up front.

I imagine we all can guess where they are going to ask for a recount:

https://twitter.com/johnrobertsFox/status/1329083857526607880?s=20

[Brittain33]

I’ll believe it when I see the check. Sheldon Adelson didn’t get rich being stupid enough to waste money on this.

[Wiz in Wis]

Seems like a bad strategy to only request a recount in certain WI counties. Like, if you want to find more votes for yourself, you'd not want to JUST look at, say, Milwaukee and Dane, where you are likely to LOSE votes in a recount, rather than gain them.

The statewide canvass added about 150 votes to Biden's margin, and most of that was from blue counties finding a dozen votes more for Biden here and there. I don't think Trump gained more than single digits in any county.

[Wiz in Wis]

So Michigan is done? Or does the state need to certify overall? If so when will that happen.

State certifies Nov 23.

[2952-0-0]

Bush vs. Gore established that any recount in a statewide election must be statewide to guarantee equal protection under the law. LOL.

[Penn_Quaker_Girl]

Bush vs. Gore established that any recount in a statewide election must be statewide to guarantee equal protection under the law. LOL.

Huh.  So recounts can't be limited to singular counties?

[wbrocks67]

https://twitter.com/carlquintanilla/status/1329078299700588545

are they any different than what we've had for over a week?

[GeorgiaModerate]

https://twitter.com/WisVoter/status/1329092822494969865

[wbrocks67]

The fact that they are wasting $$ on this knowing full well deep in their hearts it's not gonna change anything is just so disturbing.

[brucejoel99]

Bush vs. Gore established that any recount in a statewide election must be statewide to guarantee equal protection under the law. LOL.

Huh.  So recounts can't be limited to singular counties?

Make Politics Boring Again is wrong, Bush v. Gore didn't explicitly establish that any recount in a statewide election must be statewide, but rather that the use of different standards of counting in different counties violates the Equal Protection Clause; so long as a partial recount is conducted using uniform manners (& in a timely manner), it would be constitutional.

[forsythvoter]

Bush vs. Gore established that any recount in a statewide election must be statewide to guarantee equal protection under the law. LOL.

Huh.  So recounts can't be limited to singular counties?

Make Politics Boring Again is wrong, Bush v. Gore didn't explicitly establish that any recount in a statewide election must be statewide, but rather that the use of different standards of counting in different counties violate the Equal Protection Clause; so long as a partial recount is conducted using uniform manners (& in a timely manner), it would be constitutional.

How does this work in practice though? Does that mean that if votes were tabulated by machine in the first round, they must be re-tabulated by machine in the second round? Otherwise, a hand recount in select counties would violate the equal method of counting provision?

[emailking]

I guess they're just hoping it will turn up discrepancies that help their narrative. The fewer votes you recount, the smaller the chance for a big change in votes.

[Wiz in Wis]

As an actual strategy, though, it's borderline insane to focus on just Milwaukee and Dane counties.

1) You need to find 20,000 votes, but you exclude 70/72 counties!
2) These counties were massively blue, so any errors are more likley to help Biden than Trump
3) The canvas/certification process moved like 150 votes statewide, and fewer than 50 of those were in these two counties (again, pro Biden).

Just burning money at this point.

[forsythvoter]

In GA, the counties that netted Trump votes were smaller to mid-size counties. If I were the Trump campaign, I'd focus on WOW, BOW and maybe some larger rurals. Dane + Milwaukee are more likely to find new votes for Biden in a recount.

[Penn_Quaker_Girl]

I guess they're just hoping it will turn up discrepancies that help their narrative. The fewer votes you recount, the smaller the chance for a big change in votes.

I think that's what they've been probing for all along: find one example of a discrepancy and use that to springboard the argument "if it happened here, who knows how many times it happened elsewhere?"

[Tender Branson]

Today:

AR is supposed to go official today, but there are a lot of counties still missing on their page.

ID is also still unofficial.

MA doesn’t even have a results page ...

Still no word from VA (long overdue).

[Person Man]

So basically Trump is trying to win the election by retroactively cancelling it.

[brucejoel99]

Bush vs. Gore established that any recount in a statewide election must be statewide to guarantee equal protection under the law. LOL.

Huh.  So recounts can't be limited to singular counties?

Make Politics Boring Again is wrong, Bush v. Gore didn't explicitly establish that any recount in a statewide election must be statewide, but rather that the use of different standards of counting in different counties violate the Equal Protection Clause; so long as a partial recount is conducted using uniform manners (& in a timely manner), it would be constitutional.

How does this work in practice though? Does that mean that if votes were tabulated by machine in the first round, they must be re-tabulated by machine in the second round? Otherwise, a hand recount in select counties would violate the equal method of counting provision?

All that matters is that the recount is conducted in a uniform manner; under the current precedent as it stands, what happened in the initial count is irrelevant.

[Mike88]

All seems like an ultimate desperate attempt to save their faces, as AZ, NV, PA are lost, not to mention GA and MI.

[Gass3268]

As an actual strategy, though, it's borderline insane to focus on just Milwaukee and Dane counties.

1) You need to find 20,000 votes, but you exclude 70/72 counties!
2) These counties were massively blue, so any errors are more likley to help Biden than Trump
3) The canvas/certification process moved like 150 votes statewide, and fewer than 50 of those were in these two counties (again, pro Biden).

Just burning money at this point.

If you read their statement, they want to do more than just recount the votes:

https://twitter.com/sadowskijourno/status/1329095042359848962?s=21

[2952-0-0]

It's all a grift. Trump can fleece his supporters. The campaign staff can please their boss by claiming we still have a path forward. The lawyers get lucrative billable hours for doing nothing. Why bother stopping?

[Penn_Quaker_Girl]

All seems like an ultimate desperate attempt to save their faces, as AZ, NV, PA are lost, not to mention GA and MI.

Again, I don't think it's so much about outright retroactively flipping those states.

It's about sowing doubt in the process. 

Even if Trump finally gives up on actually winning (which is doubtful to me), he's going to try and solidify his position of "I won the REAL election."

[emailking]

https://twitter.com/realDonaldTrump/status/1329087255168708608
https://twitter.com/realDonaldTrump/status/1329093126238203905

[Wiz in Wis]

As an actual strategy, though, it's borderline insane to focus on just Milwaukee and Dane counties.

1) You need to find 20,000 votes, but you exclude 70/72 counties!
2) These counties were massively blue, so any errors are more likley to help Biden than Trump
3) The canvas/certification process moved like 150 votes statewide, and fewer than 50 of those were in these two counties (again, pro Biden).

Just burning money at this point.

If you read their statement, they want to do more than just recount the votes:

https://twitter.com/sadowskijourno/status/1329095042359848962?s=21

Wait... so their legal theory is that this recount would compel the counties to ignore guidance from the WEC because reasons? I mean, they need to file a lawsuit, not a recount. The recount will not change anything!

[DrScholl]

All the people who said it was ridiculous to suggest that Trump wouldn't concede defeat look really naive right now