2020 Presidential Election Results & Exit Polls commentary thread

[Hammy]

How do the Florida numbers compare with how things were going in 2016?

[Hammy]

So far the numbers seem to support Biden's narrow early vote leads getting overwhelmed by election day turnout.

[Hammy]

So far the numbers seem to support Biden's narrow early vote leads getting overwhelmed by election day turnout.

No?

So no elaboration? Simply denial? That doesn't seem like a confident answer as much as a self-convincing one.

[Hammy]

I started this Election Day with a covid-19 rapid test, after being exposed last Thursday and experiencing what I thought was allergy symptoms this past weekend (I assumed so because it was before I knew I'd been exposed).

The test showed negative, and I'm praying it wasn't a false negative.

While reading about possible riots on the streets tonight.



This is Trump's America.

Somehow Trump convinced 40% of the country that the riots are because of private citizen Joe Biden.

He's right, but obviously not about which 40%.

[Hammy]

https://twitter.com/asteadwesley/status/1323690337152454662?s=21

Now THAT would be a holy crap number if true.

Wisconsin should've never even been in doubt given the massive urban turnout. That it dropped so much in 2016 was the only thing that put Trump over the top.

[Hammy]

View of Florida at start of day:

Dem  3,548,112 or 66.6% turnout   +115,416
Rep   3,432,696 or 66.4% turrout    

At 11am (without Sarasota, Miami-Dade, Seminole)

Dem 3,705,868  or 69.9%       -57,563
Rep   3,763,431  or 72.8%

Strong Rep push this morn

Here is the noon report:  (without Sarasota, Miami-Dade, Seminole)

Dem 3,750,868 or 70.7%       -100,880
Rep  3,851,748 or 74.5%%

Florida Report for 1:30


Dem 3,793,231 or 71.5%       -137,145
Rep  3,930,376 or 76.0%

These are the numbers I was asking how this is good for Biden, with Dems having a 140k vote deficit?

[Hammy]

View of Florida at start of day:

Dem  3,548,112 or 66.6% turnout   +115,416
Rep   3,432,696 or 66.4% turrout    

At 11am (without Sarasota, Miami-Dade, Seminole)

Dem 3,705,868  or 69.9%       -57,563
Rep   3,763,431  or 72.8%

Strong Rep push this morn

Here is the noon report:  (without Sarasota, Miami-Dade, Seminole)

Dem 3,750,868 or 70.7%       -100,880
Rep  3,851,748 or 74.5%%

Florida Report for 1:30


Dem 3,793,231 or 71.5%       -137,145
Rep  3,930,376 or 76.0%

These are the numbers I was asking how this is good for Biden, with Dems having a 140k vote deficit?

That conclusion is based on two assumptions:

- That there are more registered Republicans willing to vote for Biden than registered Democrats willing to vote for Trump

- That the NPA/Other vote is made up of independents who will break for Biden

If you accept both of these assumptions*, and you interpolate from 2016 what the threshold for victory will be in terms of raw votes, then you can draw a conclusion about whether this is good or bad for Biden.

*There is evidence (polling data) that corroborates these assumptions.

Thank you, this gives an actual explanation (as I don't know a lot about election day returns pre-count) rather than simply complaining that the question's being asked.

[Hammy]

https://twitter.com/hollyotterbein/status/1323699959330471938?s=20

This would explain Pennsylvania's low return rate and overall low vote compared to surrounding states. People saw what was going on and didn't want to chance it.

[Hammy]

There's like 10 conflicting reads of the data here but it sounds less DOOMERY than an hour ago.  Must mean the numbers are looking better for Biden.

For me I just need some idea of what this or that statistic that's being dropped means as this is the first time I've watched the election day vote and it gets aggravating when I'm told to just read 25 pages as if I have the time to do that rather than a quick explanation

[Hammy]

Why republicans are being suddenly confident about Arizona is beyond me.

Same misunderstanding of the numbers that had me worry earlier. Except most people aren't new to following ED vote and need something to desperately hold on to.

[Hammy]

LOL! Cuomo would sooner give the Senate seat to his brother than AOC.

Don't give him ideas, he probably wants to

[Hammy]

https://twitter.com/JonThompsonDC/status/1323748940471275520

Funny they just ignore 51% are things Dems are trusted on more, and just focus on that 34% that is basically his cult.

[Hammy]

48% says covid is handled well, wtf???

I cannot get over this number.

That number should be 0%

We handled coronavirus worse than nearly every nation on EARTH.

lol you can't look at our covid deaths & japan covid deaths .etc and seriously try and claim any policy or mask accounts for the difference. Our death metrics don't make sense in contrast with literally any other country in the world regardless of how you account for them.

And this is because we are aggressively marking our deaths with comobidity more than any other country on earth. Carry on.

Actually yes, you can extrapolate exactly that from the data. Japan is among the best healthcare systems in the world, we're among the worst. Japan has more hospital beds per population of any country. And yes, having 90% of the population wearing masks absolutely will reduce the number of deaths and cases compared to somewhere half the country not only thinks the pandemic is fake, but actively goes around spreading it.

[Hammy]

Anyone else getting nervous? Not in the "Well sh**t Trump will win now" way but just it's here, this is the real deal, there's no going back, its not like with bad polls where if things go wrong we can't have another poll a day or two later as encouragement

[Hammy]

https://twitter.com/Megan_Palin/status/1323751340477218817

Is this normal?

[Hammy]

Biden is already only 300 shy of Clinton’s total in Boone County, KY. We still have all ED left it looks like. Looks like he’s massive getting swings in the burbs, even in dark red suburbs.

I thought election day vote came in first?

[Hammy]

Why does DDHQ seem to have a range of % in instead of a solid number?

[Hammy]

Trump starting to exceed his 2016 numbers in counties with higher number of votes in in Kentucky.

[Hammy]

So I'm noticing in the smaller counties that are coming in, Trump's % isn't moving much from 2016, but Biden's up several points from Clinton. Could be consistent with the 52-45 I'm expecting since Trump got 46% in 2016.

[Hammy]

We saw from polling that Florida was all over the place and might not come through for Biden. There are states where he polled much better that haven't even closed yet. Please calm down.

This enitre damn forum was insisting Biden would win Florida no matter what.

You seem more interested in screaming that you deserve a pat on the back than actually discussing the results so you should probably take a break from the election for awhile

[Hammy]

PA or bust. And that exit poll is too close for any confidence.

[Hammy]

Its official: Florida Democratic Party needs dissolved

[Hammy]

This is definitely going down to PA, isn’t it?

That's always been the case.

[Hammy]

This doesn't look good for Biden.

Everybody making fun of me for being a doomer is looking pretty bad right now.

If after everything, Trump wins again or makes it close, I'm not going to trust the polls again. This is seeming like a 2016 redux.

Except the FL polls were all over the place--and I'd been saying all election not to trust them because the state always does whatever it wants in the end.

[Hammy]

This doesn't look good for Biden.

Everybody making fun of me for being a doomer is looking pretty bad right now.

If after everything, Trump wins again or makes it close, I'm not going to trust the polls again. This is seeming like a 2016 redux.

Except the FL polls were all over the place--and I'd been saying all election not to trust them because the state always does whatever it wants in the end.

And you were right. I had predicted Florida as a narrow Biden win, but as I said the other day, I anticipated that this state could go either way, with the Miami-Dade vs. outstate swings that we saw in 2018. And as in 2018, it appears that the Miami-Dade swing has prevailed, and will hand Florida to Trump.

Not really wanting credit but more that it's not a great reason to not trust the polls in general, as long as the remaining states are within the MoE.

Florida's just a really bad state in general to figure out until the votes are actually in.