2020 Generic Ballot / Recruitment / Fundraising / Ratings Megathread v2
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Author Topic: 2020 Generic Ballot / Recruitment / Fundraising / Ratings Megathread v2  (Read 168476 times)
VAR
VARepublican
Junior Chimp
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« Reply #1350 on: August 04, 2020, 08:43:28 AM »
OH-01
DCCC/Schroder internal

Schroder 47%
Chabot 46%

https://twitter.com/kirk_bado/status/1290637888716251136
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Pollster
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« Reply #1351 on: August 04, 2020, 08:48:58 AM »
Quote from: wbrocks67 on August 03, 2020, 04:26:31 PM
Quote from: Pollster on August 03, 2020, 04:01:06 PM
Quote from: wbrocks67 on August 03, 2020, 02:38:43 PM
There's a LOT that is questionable about that poll, plus it's Scott Rasmussen so...

Scott Rasmussen is a good pollster, Rasmussen Reports (with which he is no longer affiliated) is not.

is RMG really that good? the poll had 25% undecided, which is kind of a ridiculous #. Not to mention, his unknown challenger has a better approval rating than McAdams does?

This guy has like $90k CoH compared to McAdams. And yet 2/3 of the electorate has an opinion?

It's probably just that undecideds weren't pushed - if they were the race would probably look like both candidates' approval numbers (i.e. tie in the mid-40's). I'm not surprised to see such high fluidity in this race considering Utahns (and Mormons elsewhere) are among the most politically frustrated voters right now.
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VAR
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« Reply #1352 on: August 04, 2020, 08:51:15 AM »
GA-06
North Star Opinion Research/Handel internal

McBath 48%
Handel 46%

https://twitter.com/kirk_bado/status/1290644125604368388

Handel was leading by 2 points in March.
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wbrocks67
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« Reply #1353 on: August 04, 2020, 08:55:44 AM »
Quote from: VARepublican on August 04, 2020, 08:51:15 AM
GA-06
North Star Opinion Research/Handel internal

McBath 48%
Handel 46%

https://twitter.com/kirk_bado/status/1290644125604368388

Handel was leading by 2 points in March.

Yikes, if her own internals have her down 2... this was always gonna be a stretch for Handel.

Oh - and no prez toplines either... again
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Dr Oz Lost Party!
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« Reply #1354 on: August 04, 2020, 10:38:06 AM »
Quote from: VARepublican on August 04, 2020, 08:51:15 AM
GA-06
North Star Opinion Research/Handel internal

McBath 48%
Handel 46%

https://twitter.com/kirk_bado/status/1290644125604368388

Handel was leading by 2 points in March.

Putting aside how horrendous this poll is for Handel, it is amazing how much this district has changed. Tom Price won it by 32 points just five years ago.
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VAR
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Junior Chimp
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« Reply #1355 on: August 04, 2020, 12:51:55 PM »
CA-50
Campa-Najjar internal

Issa 47%
Campa-Najjar 43%

https://thehill.com/homenews/campaign/510382-harris-endorses-democrat-in-tight-california-house-race

Was Issa 48-45 in March.
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Landslide Lyndon
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« Reply #1356 on: August 04, 2020, 07:08:16 PM »
My guess is MO-02.
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Roll Roons
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« Reply #1357 on: August 04, 2020, 07:11:08 PM »
Quote from: Landslide Lyndon on August 04, 2020, 07:08:16 PM
My guess is MO-02.



Could also be IN-05. Anyway, I think the national GOP is going to just cut Trump loose and try to limit the downballot damage as much as possible.
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TrendsareUsuallyReal
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« Reply #1358 on: August 04, 2020, 07:12:21 PM »
Quote from: Roll Roons on August 04, 2020, 07:11:08 PM
Quote from: Landslide Lyndon on August 04, 2020, 07:08:16 PM
My guess is MO-02.



Could also be IN-05. Anyway, I think the national GOP is going to just cut Trump loose and try to limit the downballot damage as much as possible.

That's impossible when they're tied at the hip.
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WD
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« Reply #1359 on: August 04, 2020, 07:14:12 PM »
Quote from: TrendsareUsuallyReal on August 04, 2020, 07:12:21 PM
Quote from: Roll Roons on August 04, 2020, 07:11:08 PM
Quote from: Landslide Lyndon on August 04, 2020, 07:08:16 PM
My guess is MO-02.



Could also be IN-05. Anyway, I think the national GOP is going to just cut Trump loose and try to limit the downballot damage as much as possible.

That's impossible when they're tied at the hip.

If they try to abandon Trump, downballot Rs are going to see something similar to AL-2 in 2016. It would be a disaster.
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lfromnj
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« Reply #1360 on: August 04, 2020, 07:50:18 PM »
« Edited: August 04, 2020, 08:16:44 PM by lfromnj »
Quote from: Landslide Lyndon on August 04, 2020, 07:08:16 PM
My guess is MO-02.



GOP poll in this term is used in the wrong sense, its not a true internal. IIRC Wasserman said there was a poll of Duffy being tied or something similar in a GOP Internal in 2018. Still a bad sign for the GOP of course.
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MT Treasurer
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« Reply #1361 on: August 04, 2020, 09:21:08 PM »
Quote from: Western Democrat on August 04, 2020, 07:14:12 PM
Quote from: TrendsareUsuallyReal on August 04, 2020, 07:12:21 PM
Quote from: Roll Roons on August 04, 2020, 07:11:08 PM
Quote from: Landslide Lyndon on August 04, 2020, 07:08:16 PM
My guess is MO-02.



Could also be IN-05. Anyway, I think the national GOP is going to just cut Trump loose and try to limit the downballot damage as much as possible.

That's impossible when they're tied at the hip.

If they try to abandon Trump, downballot Rs are going to see something similar to AL-2 in 2016. It would be a disaster.

They don’t have to outright disavow him like Roby did, though. It’s just that shifting resources to / focusing on downballot races (especially in the Senate) is just way more important than the money pit which is Trump's doomed reelection bid. Denying Biden a Democratic Senate and paving the way for a takeover of the House in 2022 should be their top priority.

They can still salvage MT/KS/AK/IA/etc., even if the presidency is a lost cause.
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Gracile
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« Reply #1362 on: August 04, 2020, 10:09:35 PM »
KS-02 DCCC Poll: LaTurner (R) 45%, De La Isla (D) 41%
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ajc0918
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« Reply #1363 on: August 04, 2020, 11:24:21 PM »
DCCC AZ-06 Poll:
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SnowLabrador
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« Reply #1364 on: August 05, 2020, 08:09:46 AM »
Sabato moved Iowa to Tossup and Georgia special to Likely R today.
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VAR
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« Reply #1365 on: August 05, 2020, 08:48:46 AM »
NC-08
brilliant corners/Timmons-Goodson internal

Hudson (R, inc.) 43%
Timmons-Goodson (D) 41%
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wbrocks67
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« Reply #1366 on: August 05, 2020, 10:56:19 AM »
Quote from: VARepublican on August 05, 2020, 08:48:46 AM
NC-08
brilliant corners/Timmons-Goodson internal

Hudson (R, inc.) 43%
Timmons-Goodson (D) 41%



What would the new NC-08 have voted in 2016?
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Gracile
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« Reply #1367 on: August 05, 2020, 11:05:27 AM »
Quote from: wbrocks67 on August 05, 2020, 10:56:19 AM
Quote from: VARepublican on August 05, 2020, 08:48:46 AM
NC-08
brilliant corners/Timmons-Goodson internal

Hudson (R, inc.) 43%
Timmons-Goodson (D) 41%



What would the new NC-08 have voted in 2016?

It's a 53-44 Trump district (trended R slightly from 52-47 Romney). So normally it would be a district that is modestly to the right of the nation, but it's not surprising to see it close given the current national climate.
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wbrocks67
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« Reply #1368 on: August 05, 2020, 05:38:21 PM »
Wow. Andy Kim (NJ-03) basically raised $500K in just July alone. Q3 reports are gonna be insane.
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Lisa's voting Biden
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« Reply #1369 on: August 05, 2020, 10:20:13 PM »
Quote from: wbrocks67 on August 05, 2020, 05:38:21 PM
Wow. Andy Kim (NJ-03) basically raised $500K in just July alone. Q3 reports are gonna be insane.


Yeah this seat ain't flipping back this cycle.
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Oryxslayer
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« Reply #1370 on: August 06, 2020, 08:21:30 AM »
Garcia internal has him leading by 48-41, Biden+5. Given the rules around released internals, it clearly looks like a tossup race for CA-25.

Also a bad poll for the D v D CA53 race:
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wbrocks67
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« Reply #1371 on: August 06, 2020, 08:26:20 AM »
Yeah, re: CA25, if the poll has Biden essentially doing the same as Clinton in that district, I'd say it's definitely R-leaning
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Greedo punched first
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« Reply #1372 on: August 06, 2020, 08:27:28 AM »
CA-25 is A GOP internal. What is that CA-53 Huh poll?
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ajc0918
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« Reply #1373 on: August 06, 2020, 08:28:33 AM »
TX-24:
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Horus
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« Reply #1374 on: August 06, 2020, 08:29:20 AM »
« Edited: August 06, 2020, 08:33:44 AM by Horus »
Quote from: wbrocks67 on August 06, 2020, 08:26:20 AM
Yeah, re: CA25, if the poll has Biden essentially doing the same as Clinton in that district, I'd say it's definitely R-leaning

Smith is also a horrific candidate while Garcia is on track to be the John katko of the decade
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