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Author Topic: 2020 Generic Ballot / Recruitment / Fundraising / Ratings Megathread v2  (Read 165629 times)
Dr Oz Lost Party!
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« on: October 19, 2019, 04:06:56 PM »
So outlets are beginning to report that Maya Rockeymoore Cummings is very likely to run for her husband's seat... but not in the upcoming special, probably in the 2020 election. Stephanie Rawlings Blake is being floated as a place holder in the special.
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Dr Oz Lost Party!
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« Reply #1 on: October 22, 2019, 12:20:55 PM »
Quote from: "Too Urban, Too Internet" Progressive on October 22, 2019, 09:43:01 AM
Rep. Elise Stefanik’s PAC devoted to electing Republican women to the House has made its first set of endorsements-



She also endorsed a load of female candidates in Likely and Safe D districts like FL-26 and PA-07 lol
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Dr Oz Lost Party!
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« Reply #2 on: October 24, 2019, 11:10:50 AM »
Quote from: "Too Urban, Too Internet" Progressive on October 24, 2019, 11:06:00 AM
This is an interesting development in the IL-14/FL-19 races:



What is it with the GOP's extreme carpet bagging this cycle?
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Dr Oz Lost Party!
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« Reply #3 on: October 29, 2019, 02:17:28 PM »
Quote from: gracile on October 29, 2019, 02:16:29 PM
^Looks like Sabato is moving PA-17 to Likely D:



PAAAAAAAHAHAHAHAHAHAHA *breathes* HAHAHAHAHAHAAAAAA
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Dr Oz Lost Party!
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« Reply #4 on: October 30, 2019, 03:22:36 AM »
Quote from: UncleSam on October 29, 2019, 03:01:27 PM
Quote from: PA is Lean D on October 29, 2019, 02:17:28 PM
Quote from: gracile on October 29, 2019, 02:16:29 PM
^Looks like Sabato is moving PA-17 to Likely D:



PAAAAAAAHAHAHAHAHAHAHA *breathes* HAHAHAHAHAHAAAAAA
Trump won the district by a few points and Parnell is a credible challenger. There’s no justification for rating a Trump 2016 district that is being contested Safe D, no matter how much you want you have relations with Connor Lamb

Lamb beat the incumbent Republican here by 12 points in 2018, and the best the GOP could do was to carpet bag their “top-tier candidate” all the way from Alaska.
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Dr Oz Lost Party!
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« Reply #5 on: November 01, 2019, 01:14:51 PM »
Quote from: Yellowhammer on October 30, 2019, 12:35:40 PM
Quote from: PA is Lean D on October 30, 2019, 03:22:36 AM
Quote from: UncleSam on October 29, 2019, 03:01:27 PM
Quote from: PA is Lean D on October 29, 2019, 02:17:28 PM
Quote from: gracile on October 29, 2019, 02:16:29 PM
^Looks like Sabato is moving PA-17 to Likely D:



PAAAAAAAHAHAHAHAHAHAHA *breathes* HAHAHAHAHAHAAAAAA
Trump won the district by a few points and Parnell is a credible challenger. There’s no justification for rating a Trump 2016 district that is being contested Safe D, no matter how much you want you have relations with Connor Lamb

Lamb beat the incumbent Republican here by 12 points in 2018, and the best the GOP could do was to carpet bag their “top-tier candidate” all the way from Alaska.

Do your research first, Einstein.

Because you do so much before you shoot your mouth.
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Dr Oz Lost Party!
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« Reply #6 on: November 16, 2019, 03:12:21 PM »
Stefanik really fell off the deep end...



Her challenger raised $400K since the stunt



I don’t think she’ll lose BUT the district is only R+4 so 🤷🏻‍♂️
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Dr Oz Lost Party!
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« Reply #7 on: December 05, 2019, 08:04:41 PM »
Brad Parscale tweeted out an internal poll that showed support for impeachment in OK-05 at 45%. Not sure what he was thinking, but if support is that high in the 5th, not only is the district clearly shifting Democrat but it’s good news for the Democratic majority lol.

Pollsters from both sides of the aisle are roasting him for it.

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Dr Oz Lost Party!
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« Reply #8 on: December 08, 2019, 10:48:24 AM »
Quote from: gracile on December 08, 2019, 09:46:45 AM
RRH Elections updated their House ratings:

https://rrhelections.com/index.php/2019/12/07/rrh-elections-december-2019-house-ratings/

Moved in favor of Republicans
CA-21: Tossup from Lean D
CA-25: Tossup from Likely D
CA-50: Likely R from Lean R
IL-12: Safe R from Likely R
IN-1: Likely D from Safe D
MI-1: Safe R from Likely R
NY-17: Likely D from Safe D
NY-27: Likely R from Lean R
NC-3: Safe R from Likely R
NC-9: Likely R from Lean R
NC-13: Safe R from Likely R
WA-10: Likely D from Safe D
WV-2: Safe R from Likely R

Moved in favor of Democrats
CA-8: Likely R from Safe R
CA-24: Safe D from Likely D
IL-6: Likely D from Lean D
MO-2: Lean R from Likely R
NJ-3: Lean D from Tossup
NY-2: Lean R from Likely R
NC-2: Safe D from Lean R
NC-6: Safe D from Safe R
NC-8: Likely R from Safe R

Throw the entire site out.
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Dr Oz Lost Party!
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« Reply #9 on: December 12, 2019, 12:38:46 AM »
« Edited: December 12, 2019, 12:45:26 AM by PA is Lean D »
Of course RCP sat on their own poll because it didn't look good for the GOP-
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Dr Oz Lost Party!
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« Reply #10 on: December 14, 2019, 08:06:12 PM »
The Democrats' generic ballot lead has increased since last week. So much for impeachment destroying us.

https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/congress-generic-ballot-polls/
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Dr Oz Lost Party!
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« Reply #11 on: December 14, 2019, 10:18:54 PM »
Quote from: Brittain33 on December 14, 2019, 10:07:43 PM
Quote from: PA is Lean D on December 14, 2019, 08:06:12 PM
The Democrats' generic ballot lead has increased since last week. So much for impeachment destroying us.

https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/congress-generic-ballot-polls/

The tremendous irony of an RCP poll driving up the Democratic advantage of a different poll aggregator.

LOL they never even entered it into their own aggregate.
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Dr Oz Lost Party!
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« Reply #12 on: December 16, 2019, 06:57:33 PM »
Quote from: Sen. Dean Heller on December 16, 2019, 06:54:41 PM
The NRCC is on twitter right now writing press releases against Wexton in VA-10.




How are we this stupid? How?

SHHH let them spend millions there Wink
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Dr Oz Lost Party!
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« Reply #13 on: December 17, 2019, 01:50:09 PM »
Quote from: You're Still Going to Vote for Biden on December 17, 2019, 01:16:47 PM
Quote from: Frenchrepublican on December 17, 2019, 12:45:45 PM


For impeachment : 45%
Against : 50%
Thats just the 2016 numbers. Decent news for dems, actually.

Might be why so many vulnerable dems are onboard with the impeachment. Internal polls must look pretty decent.
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Dr Oz Lost Party!
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« Reply #14 on: December 18, 2019, 05:21:30 PM »
« Edited: December 18, 2019, 05:26:21 PM by PA is Lean D »
Quote from: Gass3268 on December 18, 2019, 05:16:52 PM
The Generic Ballot is basically unchanged since the midterms.



Dems in disarray, impeachment backfire, Hunter Biden, Hillary Clinton, read the transcript, etc. etc.
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Dr Oz Lost Party!
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« Reply #15 on: December 19, 2019, 02:49:33 AM »
RCP's 2020 GCB aggregate has it D +7.2 which is up 1.4 from last week and levels almost exactly with where the Dems were for 2018 (+7.3)

https://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/other/2020_generic_congressional_vote-6722.html

Obviously, it's useless this far out but the narrative that impeachment is destroying the Democrats is hot garbage.
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Dr Oz Lost Party!
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« Reply #16 on: December 23, 2019, 11:15:59 PM »
Quote from: IndependentBendVoter on December 23, 2019, 11:04:38 PM
Republican internal shows Republican up by 9 in IL-06:




LOL Likely D.

Ives is possibly the worst fit for that district.
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Dr Oz Lost Party!
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« Reply #17 on: December 23, 2019, 11:23:17 PM »
Quote from: You're Still Going to Vote for Biden on December 23, 2019, 11:17:59 PM
Quote from: PA is Lean D on December 23, 2019, 11:15:59 PM
Quote from: IndependentBendVoter on December 23, 2019, 11:04:38 PM
Republican internal shows Republican up by 9 in IL-06:




LOL Likely D.

Ives is possibly the worst fit for that district.
Think there is something funky going on with this poll though- it still has dems up 48-43 on the generic ballot.

Yep. Ives is too much of a right wing nut to be outperforming any Republican in that district... she's definitely worse than generic R.
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Dr Oz Lost Party!
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« Reply #18 on: December 24, 2019, 01:45:06 PM »
Quote from: Frenchrepublican on December 24, 2019, 10:25:38 AM
Quote from: wbrocks67 on December 24, 2019, 08:21:43 AM
OK-05
Agree with Horn's vote to impeach Trump? 47% approve / 49% disapprove
Horn job approval: 45/42 (+3)
Vote to re-elect Horn: 40% yes, 45% R challenger

These are actually very good #s for OK-05, so if it's playing like this in a Trump +double digit district then this is nowhere near the calamity for Dems that pundits and the media are making it out to be.

https://oklahoman.com/article/5650629/poll-shows-even-split-over-horns-votes-to-impeach-trump

These datas are actually pretty good for the GOP, Trump is leading by 10, his approval rate is at +11 and a republican challenger is already leading by 5 in the House race.

If opposition to impeachment is only +1 in a Trump +double digit district, then it means impeachment isn't backfiring on the Democrats and they're probably going to hold the house.

Not actually great news for them. It also shows that Horn isn't DOA.
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Dr Oz Lost Party!
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« Reply #19 on: December 27, 2019, 07:05:35 PM »
Quote from: Non Swing Voter on December 27, 2019, 03:39:04 PM
so is the current thinking that Republicans might win back some of the low hanging fruit like Horn, Brindisi, Van Drew, etc. but that Democrats are certain to win 2 districts in North Carolina + a couple in Texas, Georgia, etc., so 2020 will be a wash and Democrats will maintain a sizable majority in the House?

Something like that... I've also been seeing that its more likely than not Dems make a net gain in the house.
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Dr Oz Lost Party!
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« Reply #20 on: January 03, 2020, 05:23:02 PM »
A bit late, but YouGov has the Generic Ballot at D+10.

Pelosi approval is only -4

Dem congressional approval is -5

GOP congressional approval is -20

Safe to say impeachment hasn't put a dent in Democrats' chances of holding the house. At least according to YouGov.

https://d25d2506sfb94s.cloudfront.net/cumulus_uploads/document/2r6hyqtv9p/econTabReport.pdf
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Dr Oz Lost Party!
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« Reply #21 on: January 10, 2020, 01:06:43 PM »
Quote from: The Unberarable Inevitability of Barbara Bollier on January 10, 2020, 12:56:58 PM
Quote from: ajc0918 on January 09, 2020, 07:52:31 PM
He voted for Hillary Clinton in 2016 which could help him in this district.

Nah, it really won’t.

Yeah, it'll probably screw him in the primary. There's a hardcore MAGA already running.
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Dr Oz Lost Party!
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« Reply #22 on: January 14, 2020, 10:29:10 PM »
Quote from: wbrocks67 on January 14, 2020, 06:46:53 PM
Anthony Brindisi (NY-22) - raised “more than $900,000” with more than $1.8 million COH

Sean Parnell (PA-17) R challenging Conor Lamb - raised $265K, with more than $200,000 COH

Andy Kim (NJ-03) - raised $900K in Q4 with $2.2 million COH

Dems are blowing this out of the water. Not to mention, Parnell is supposed to be a major threat to Lamb. That # doesn't really say that.

Yeah, I believe Lamb raised about $550K.
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Dr Oz Lost Party!
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« Reply #23 on: January 15, 2020, 05:40:55 PM »
The AZ and NV Dems are stomping the GOP in fundraising.



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Dr Oz Lost Party!
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« Reply #24 on: January 17, 2020, 01:13:07 PM »
Quote from: wbrocks67 on January 17, 2020, 12:10:39 PM
TX-23: Gina Ortiz Jones (D) raised $826K in 4th Q, bringing total cash to $2M+

https://twitter.com/PatrickSvitek/status/1218216412843372544

Lean>Likely D.

The presumed GOP frontrunner raised only $152K.
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