2020 Generic Ballot / Recruitment / Fundraising / Ratings Megathread v2

[ajc0918]

GOP gets a good recruit for FL-26 in Miami-Dade Mayor Jimenez.

https://www.miamiherald.com/news/politics-government/article239046258.html

His entry will be applauded by the GOP but he has some baggage and has never run in a partisan race.  He voted for Hillary Clinton in 2016 which could help him in this district.

[ajc0918]

Yeah McSally wasn't nearly as bad as most people think, the best way to think about it is that she lost a Trump +3 to a super moderate D by 2 points in 2018. Considering the national environment, that was a pretty good showing tbh

She lost by 2.4% and the Green Party candidate took an additional 2.4%. Had she not have been on the ballot McSally would have lost by like 4%... I get your point but still.

[ajc0918]

GOP gets a good recruit for FL-26 in Miami-Dade Mayor Jimenez.

https://www.miamiherald.com/news/politics-government/article239046258.html

His entry will be applauded by the GOP but he has some baggage and has never run in a partisan race.  He voted for Hillary Clinton in 2016 which could help him in this district.

FL GOP may not be getting their prized recruit. Weeks after initially saying he'd launch a campaign, Gimenez still hasn't announced. Now an ethics complain has been filed.

FAILURE TO LAUNCH: Gimenez congressional campaign ensnared by Public Ethics complaint already.

Both the Mayor and his Communications Director and Senior Advisor Myriam Marquez are facing a serious ethics complaint about her use of government staff time and resources to respond to a political inquiry triggered by Miami Herald’s reporters David Smiley and Doug Hanks’ coverage of the congressional race. Marquez used to be the Executive Editor of the Herald.

Former Miami-Dade Democratic Party Chairman Juan Cuba obtained records showing that Marquez did use her office on Gimenez’s partisan chore and shared the information with him directly by text message, all of which is filed in the complaint to Miami-Dade’s Commission on Ethics & Public Trust, a copy of which is below.

https://medium.com/@grantstern/failure-to-launch-gimenez-congressional-campaign-ensnared-by-public-ethics-complaint-already-5b4e7dd14ccd

This follows a pre-launch campaign by the Florida Democratic Party / DCCC labeling Gimenez as "Corrupt Carlos." https://www.miamiherald.com/news/politics-government/article239154493.html

[ajc0918]

The GCB has ballooned to Dem +13

https://d25d2506sfb94s.cloudfront.net/cumulus_uploads/document/3rdraw493c/econTabReport.pdf

People are really underrating the possibility that 2020 will turn into a pretty decent-sized victory for Dems. I'm not saying that swing state polls aren't important, but it's a pretty bad sign for the GOP that RCP has the generic ballot at D+8.3 and has Biden up 5 over Trump in national polling.

A democratic trifecta is within reach. I'm feeling incredibly optimistic for the first time in a while.

[ajc0918]

The GOP nominated two far right candidates for the run off for TX-22. Dems nominated Sri Kulkarni who ran in 2018 and got 46.4% of the vote.

Are dems now likely to pick up this seat? It was probably a toss up before the primary.

[ajc0918]

Looks like the NRCC is not playing offense in FL-26 and FL-27.

Donna Shalala is just too powerful.

[ajc0918]

Martha is going to force the NRSC to spend millions here just to reach parity. Awesome news.

[ajc0918]

https://twitter.com/allymutnick/status/1250473398544805890?s=20

https://twitter.com/allymutnick/status/1250458207081955328?s=20

[ajc0918]

https://twitter.com/libmeyer/status/1250488173391687682?s=20

[ajc0918]

https://twitter.com/allymutnick/status/1250473398544805890?s=20

https://twitter.com/allymutnick/status/1250458207081955328?s=20

The crazy thing is that these people are the same ones who complain about money in politics.

They complain about corporate money in politics - not thousands of $50 donations from teachers and nurses.

[ajc0918]

Apparently, Riggleman in VA-05 is expected to lose the nomination to Bob Good.

https://twitter.com/vapoliticalnews/status/1258150366060953600?s=21

This probably moves the seat from Likely R to Lean R.

[ajc0918]

https://static.texastribune.org/media/files/bc453ab900a62c2a5139a494a15c0cfa/TX-06%20DCCC%20Analytics%20-%20Toplines%20-%202020.06.24.pdf

DCCC poll for TX-06
June 24-28, 2020
376 likely voters

D 46%
R 45%
Blank ballot/refused 9%

Candidates named:

Ron Wright (R) 45%
Stephen Daniel (D) 41%
Undecided 15%

Cook has this as a Safe R seat.

[ajc0918]

CA-25: Katie Porter raised $2.5M in Q2 and ended June with $6.6M in the bank. This is her fifth quarter raising over $1M.

[ajc0918]

https://twitter.com/averyjaffe/status/1283245149053767684?s=21

[ajc0918]

DCCC AZ-06 Poll:

https://twitter.com/allymutnick/status/1290864382474412033?s=21

[ajc0918]

TX-24:
https://twitter.com/coleleiter/status/1291338706327134209?s=20

[ajc0918]

House Dems could realistically pick up 20+ seats this election. These internals are wild.

[ajc0918]

https://twitter.com/JamesArkin/status/1300941685518741507

Could Harrison's fundraising help Joe Cunningham win?

[ajc0918]

Mike Espy raises $700,000 since RBG's passing.

https://twitter.com/MikeEspyMS/status/1308112217074798600?s=20

I'm curious how much the more high profile democratic senate candidates have raised.

[ajc0918]

Holy sh*t... $6 million for Cal in North Carolina in three days. Insane.

[ajc0918]

This is insane

https://twitter.com/shanegoldmacher/status/1308198252181946368?s=21

[ajc0918]

Reminder that the 2018 blue wave was partially due to a a monetary green wave. 2020 is no different.

[ajc0918]

Republicans are slowly but surely getting better at small dollar fundraising.

Not really. Dem donors are just all directing to Senate races.