2020 Generic Ballot / Recruitment / Fundraising / Ratings Megathread v2 (user search)
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Author Topic: 2020 Generic Ballot / Recruitment / Fundraising / Ratings Megathread v2  (Read 166103 times)
Lisa's voting Biden
LCameronAL
Jr. Member
***
Posts: 1,903
United States


Political Matrix
E: -2.75, S: -3.83
« on: October 11, 2019, 10:35:27 PM »
Still a strong likely R seat.
Logged
Lisa's voting Biden
LCameronAL
Jr. Member
***
Posts: 1,903
United States


Political Matrix
E: -2.75, S: -3.83
« Reply #1 on: October 13, 2019, 05:44:57 PM »
IA-04 GOP Primary (G1 Survey Research, Steve King Internal):

Steve King 59%
Randy Feenstra 15%
Jeremy Taylor 6%
Bret Richards 2%
Steve Reeder 0%

Head to Head
Steve King 64%
Randy Feenstra 24%

Steve King 64%
Jeremy Taylor 19%

Steve King's approval among the GOP in IA-04 is 72%.

https://static1.squarespace.com/static/5a95c6f4f2e6b174b5780c4e/t/5d9b81dd265a9f6db3c94050/1570472414702/King+Primary+Poll.pdf
Logged
Lisa's voting Biden
LCameronAL
Jr. Member
***
Posts: 1,903
United States


Political Matrix
E: -2.75, S: -3.83
« Reply #2 on: October 14, 2019, 05:47:43 PM »
CA-07: Ami Bera gives Q3 fundraising

Receipts - $157,972
Cash on Hand - $1,434,392
Logged
Lisa's voting Biden
LCameronAL
Jr. Member
***
Posts: 1,903
United States


Political Matrix
E: -2.75, S: -3.83
« Reply #3 on: October 15, 2019, 01:06:51 PM »
Current Q3 numbers for districts that are on the DCCC/NRCC target lists:
Logged
Lisa's voting Biden
LCameronAL
Jr. Member
***
Posts: 1,903
United States


Political Matrix
E: -2.75, S: -3.83
« Reply #4 on: October 25, 2019, 12:57:30 PM »
McLaughlin & Associates GCB (10/17-22)

GOP - 44%
DEM - 46% (+2)

https://mclaughlinonline.com/pols/wp-content/uploads/2019/10/National-Monthly-Omnibus-October-PUBLIC-1.pdf
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Lisa's voting Biden
LCameronAL
Jr. Member
***
Posts: 1,903
United States


Political Matrix
E: -2.75, S: -3.83
« Reply #5 on: November 06, 2019, 09:24:43 PM »
TX-24 Dem Primary Poll (Bold PAC)

Candace Valenzuela - 14%
Kim Olson - 12%
Crystal Fletcher - 10%
Jan McDowell - 9% (2018 Candidate)

https://thehill.com/latino/467717-hispanic-caucus-all-in-with-latina-in-crowded-texas-primary
Logged
Lisa's voting Biden
LCameronAL
Jr. Member
***
Posts: 1,903
United States


Political Matrix
E: -2.75, S: -3.83
« Reply #6 on: November 13, 2019, 11:22:17 AM »
Joyce Ann Elliott, Democrat senator from Arkansas Senate District 31 and former majority leader, has filed to run against French Hill in AR-02.

She was the 2010 nominee for this district and lost by 20% to Tim Griffin.
Logged
Lisa's voting Biden
LCameronAL
Jr. Member
***
Posts: 1,903
United States


Political Matrix
E: -2.75, S: -3.83
« Reply #7 on: November 16, 2019, 03:23:02 PM »
Quote from: PA is Lean D on November 16, 2019, 03:12:21 PM
Stefanik really fell off the deep end...



Her challenger raised $400K since the stunt



I don’t think she’ll lose BUT the district is only R+4 so 🤷🏻‍♂️
She won by almost 14% in a DEM wave year. This is a Trump +14 district. She will not lose.
Logged
Lisa's voting Biden
LCameronAL
Jr. Member
***
Posts: 1,903
United States


Political Matrix
E: -2.75, S: -3.83
« Reply #8 on: November 17, 2019, 01:07:42 PM »
Quote from: wbrocks67 on November 17, 2019, 11:18:55 AM
Can anyone tell me if there's a source to find who are the challengers in each district so far? I'm trying to find out who are the current R challengers for PA-04, PA-05, PA-06, PA-07, and PA-08, if any
Ballotpedia has everything you need.
Logged
Lisa's voting Biden
LCameronAL
Jr. Member
***
Posts: 1,903
United States


Political Matrix
E: -2.75, S: -3.83
« Reply #9 on: November 18, 2019, 09:23:16 AM »
Quote from: wbrocks67 on November 18, 2019, 07:18:11 AM
Cobb raised $1 million+


McGrath is raising how much again?
Logged
Lisa's voting Biden
LCameronAL
Jr. Member
***
Posts: 1,903
United States


Political Matrix
E: -2.75, S: -3.83
« Reply #10 on: November 18, 2019, 07:01:25 PM »
It's official: Steve Knight is running again in CA-25:
Logged
Lisa's voting Biden
LCameronAL
Jr. Member
***
Posts: 1,903
United States


Political Matrix
E: -2.75, S: -3.83
« Reply #11 on: November 22, 2019, 12:57:45 PM »
Politico's House and Senate rating maps are atrocious.

Some of the worst House offenders:
-AZ-09 being Likely D
-CA-03, CA-09, CA-16, and CA-31 being Likely D
-CT-02 being Likely D
-CT-05 being Lean D
-FL-06 and FL-25 being Likely R
-FL-19 being Likely D
-IL-03 being Likely D
-IL-16 being Likely R
-MA-09 being Likely D
-NH-02 being Lean D
-NJ-04 being Likely R
-NJ-5 and NJ-11 being Lean D
-NY-03 being Likely D
-PA-06 being Likely D
-PA-17 being Lean D
-TX-07 being a tossup
-TX-03, TX-17 being Likely R
-VA-01 being Likely R
-WV-02 and WV-03 being Likely R

Some of the worst Senate offenders:
-CO-SEN being a tossup
-DE-SEN being Likely D
-OR-SEN being Likely D
-TN-SEN being Likely R

https://www.politico.com/2020-election/race-forecasts-and-predictions/house/
Logged
Lisa's voting Biden
LCameronAL
Jr. Member
***
Posts: 1,903
United States


Political Matrix
E: -2.75, S: -3.83
« Reply #12 on: December 05, 2019, 11:01:42 AM »
Quote from: gracile on December 05, 2019, 10:09:14 AM
Mark Walker update:


Running for the senate would be a bad, bad idea.
Logged
Lisa's voting Biden
LCameronAL
Jr. Member
***
Posts: 1,903
United States


Political Matrix
E: -2.75, S: -3.83
« Reply #13 on: December 10, 2019, 05:20:17 PM »
Knute Buehler is running for OR-02
Logged
Lisa's voting Biden
LCameronAL
Jr. Member
***
Posts: 1,903
United States


Political Matrix
E: -2.75, S: -3.83
« Reply #14 on: December 11, 2019, 11:20:15 AM »
It would be amazing if the GOP threw away their best chance to win back the most winnable seat for them in 2020.
Logged
Lisa's voting Biden
LCameronAL
Jr. Member
***
Posts: 1,903
United States


Political Matrix
E: -2.75, S: -3.83
« Reply #15 on: December 14, 2019, 12:08:57 PM »
« Edited: December 14, 2019, 12:23:55 PM by LCameronOR »
Quote from: Frenchrepublican on December 14, 2019, 11:32:55 AM

Still Safe D, but depending how Trump does statewide, this could be maybe 2% more competitive.
Logged
Lisa's voting Biden
LCameronAL
Jr. Member
***
Posts: 1,903
United States


Political Matrix
E: -2.75, S: -3.83
« Reply #16 on: December 23, 2019, 11:04:38 PM »
Republican internal shows Republican up by 9 in IL-06:
Logged
Lisa's voting Biden
LCameronAL
Jr. Member
***
Posts: 1,903
United States


Political Matrix
E: -2.75, S: -3.83
« Reply #17 on: January 03, 2020, 05:16:00 PM »
Quote from: Frenchrepublican on January 03, 2020, 05:14:46 PM


NY-19 : Molinaro won't run, a big recruitment failure to say the least
Who would want to be in the House minority during the age of Trump? Molinaro is smart.
Logged
Lisa's voting Biden
LCameronAL
Jr. Member
***
Posts: 1,903
United States


Political Matrix
E: -2.75, S: -3.83
« Reply #18 on: January 09, 2020, 11:01:39 PM »
Quote from: ajc0918 on January 09, 2020, 07:52:31 PM
GOP gets a good recruit for FL-26 in Miami-Dade Mayor Jimenez.

https://www.miamiherald.com/news/politics-government/article239046258.html

His entry will be applauded by the GOP but he has some baggage and has never run in a partisan race.  He voted for Hillary Clinton in 2016 which could help him in this district.
Lean D
Logged
Lisa's voting Biden
LCameronAL
Jr. Member
***
Posts: 1,903
United States


Political Matrix
E: -2.75, S: -3.83
« Reply #19 on: January 17, 2020, 02:56:10 PM »
Quote from: gracile on January 17, 2020, 01:38:38 PM
Quote from: Xing on January 17, 2020, 12:55:57 PM
Sabato makes some ratings changes:

NH-SEN: Lean D -> Likely D
VA-SEN: Likely D -> Safe D

VT-GOV: Likely R -> Lean R

CA-50: Likely R -> Safe R

Inside Elections have also moved CA-50 to Safe R, making it now Safe by all of the big three pundits. I believe this is the first district this cycle that was once seen as competitive by all three that has been moved off the table.
I would argue that VT-GOV should stay at Likely R.
Logged
Lisa's voting Biden
LCameronAL
Jr. Member
***
Posts: 1,903
United States


Political Matrix
E: -2.75, S: -3.83
« Reply #20 on: January 18, 2020, 10:19:29 PM »
AL-02 Primary poll shows Coleman up big:
Logged
Lisa's voting Biden
LCameronAL
Jr. Member
***
Posts: 1,903
United States


Political Matrix
E: -2.75, S: -3.83
« Reply #21 on: January 20, 2020, 06:59:08 PM »
Safe R
Logged
Lisa's voting Biden
LCameronAL
Jr. Member
***
Posts: 1,903
United States


Political Matrix
E: -2.75, S: -3.83
« Reply #22 on: January 30, 2020, 09:29:01 PM »
Michael McCaul from TX-10:

Receipts - $377,910
Expenses - $213,465
Cash on hand - $984,384
Logged
Lisa's voting Biden
LCameronAL
Jr. Member
***
Posts: 1,903
United States


Political Matrix
E: -2.75, S: -3.83
« Reply #23 on: February 07, 2020, 01:55:18 PM »
Paulette Jordan, the 2018 Democrat nominee for Idaho governor, has announced her run against Republican senator Jim Risch!
Logged
Lisa's voting Biden
LCameronAL
Jr. Member
***
Posts: 1,903
United States


Political Matrix
E: -2.75, S: -3.83
« Reply #24 on: February 07, 2020, 02:51:40 PM »
« Edited: February 07, 2020, 03:12:53 PM by LCameronOR »
Quote from: Frenchrepublican on February 07, 2020, 02:39:44 PM
Quote from: LCameronOR on February 07, 2020, 01:55:18 PM
Paulette Jordan, the 2018 Democrat nominee for Idaho governor, has announced her run against Republican senator Jim Risch!


Okay and ?? It's not really a game-changer development
She's the most high-profile candidate the Democrats could have got to run. She'll definitely sweep the primary. She's also the kind of progressive I support. I've already donated $20 to her campaign.
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