2020 Generic Ballot / Recruitment / Fundraising / Ratings Megathread v2

[lfromnj]

Wow those Wendy Davis numbers are incredible.

[lfromnj]

Rep. Elise Stefanik’s PAC devoted to electing Republican women to the House has made its first set of endorsements-

https://mobile.twitter.com/ElizLanders/status/1186614776962732032

Why are they endorsing Karen Handel? She is a persistent underperformer, and is controversial.

Well, there aren't that many Republican women running for Congress to choose from.

Uh what? Even if they dont win the primaries there are plenty of Republican women currently running.

[lfromnj]

Rep. Elise Stefanik’s PAC devoted to electing Republican women to the House has made its first set of endorsements-

https://mobile.twitter.com/ElizLanders/status/1186614776962732032

Interesting, most of these districts will be difficult with Trump on the ballot, with the one notable exception of Malliotakis.

Uh IA 1st?. The guy who was supposed to get blanched and got triaged lost by like 5.

[lfromnj]

https://twitter.com/MattMackowiak/status/1187174849497780226

Don't know why, Chet Edwards isn't really gonna be getting amazing rural numbers. He's also been a lobbyist for 8 years.

[lfromnj]

Edwards is insurance incase the GOP nominates a Roy Moore-type figure. He is, though, the exact type of Dem retread who could lose the primary to an insurgent a la Ashford.

He almost certainly would as 40% of this district is Austin and the vast majority of D votes would come from there. However Edward's did have one liberal aspect in that he had a 100% NARAl rating.

[lfromnj]

The thing is that gaetz is fairly moderate. The only thing is that he's an absolute Trump hack .

[lfromnj]

Matt Gaetz's Dem challenger is generating interest on liberal twitter: https://twitter.com/PhilEhr/status/1181587062715244544?s=20

This will go about as well as the #resistance's efforts against Paul Gosar in 2018.

They might even got Gaetz to only win by 30 instead of 35!!!!

Honestly, if I ran the RNC, I'd tell all the incumbents in R+15 districts and higher to try to trigger the libs as much as possible to suck away millions of gullible #resistance dollars into the abyss.

But you see these are the people that wanna funnel all the money into VA10th

[lfromnj]

Cook Political moved IL-13 to the Toss Up column from Lean R (though they didn't announce it):

https://cookpolitical.com/ratings/house-race-ratings

Cook also moved MI-SEN from Likely to Lean D.

It's wild that they had it at Likely D to start off with but then again knowing Cook it shouldn't have been that surprising.

I know right, Gary Peters won by 14 points in a mega R wave . Looks like Safe to me.

[lfromnj]

https://www.reuters.com/article/us-usa-election-democrats/expanding-the-squad-us-liberals-challenge-moderate-democrats-to-move-party-left-idUSKBN1X00ZY

But the fact that the Texas congressional primary will be held on the same day as the state’s presidential primary could double turnout and boost Cisneros’ chances, said Mark P. Jones, a political science professor at Rice University in Houston.

“If she is able to make the case that she is the congressional equivalent of Elizabeth Warren and Bernie Sanders and Beto O’Rourke, and Henry Cuellar is not, then Cuellar could find himself in some trouble,” Jones said.

How on earth is this guy a political science professor btw? Clinton won every county in the district by large margins and won Texas Hispanics over Bernie 71-29, but yes, obviously being associated with Bernie is just the key to victory in this #risingProgressive #Sanders2020, NeverBiden district.

The daughter of Mexican-American immigrants, Cisneros said that residents in the largely Hispanic district, which is centered in Laredo and stretches from the San Antonio suburbs to the U.S.-Mexico border, are warming to liberal policies. Democrat Hillary Clinton won the district in the 2016 presidential race by 20 percentage points.

Acting like Clinton's margin of victory in a 79% Hispanic, South Texas district proves whether the district is liberal or conservative shows absolutely nothing except that whoever wrote this article has no idea what they're talking about. I can't wait for Cueller to get re-elected by a 40+ point margin.

If Sanders made it to Super Tuesday I wouldn't be shocked if Sanders did better than 2016 in this district by raw percentage aka he gets more than 29%.

[lfromnj]

The NRCC never learns, I can't believe they spent money for the labor to do this .



From townhall https://townhall.com/tipsheet/mattvespa/2019/11/01/get-packing-gop-sent-moving-boxes-to-democrats-in-competitive-races-after-impe-n2555745/

Anyway VA 10th is probably the 3rd most pro impeach district VA ahead of the 4th and maybe even the 3rd district. Obviously the 8th and 11th are more pro impeach.

[lfromnj]

https://mobile.twitter.com/Redistrict/status/1195345051808870401
What?
A state senator survived in a clinton plus 2 district from this area so Wasserman moves it left?
A nearby delegate survives by 10 points in a clinton plus 5 district?
I'm not gonna complain about it being lean d. I call it tossup and tilt d. The problem is thinking Democrats did good in 2019 in Virginia

[lfromnj]

Gonna do my analysis of competetive senate districts and house seats in VA 7th.
HD 72
Clinton +6, D incumbent + 6.5
HD 73 Clinton +7, D open seat, D+5
HD 68 Clinton +10, D+9 2019 incumbent
HD 27- Trump +4, R incubment +1 2019.
HD 66(this one im not sure if most of it is in VA 7th but part of it probably is.)
Clinton +4, R incumbent +10 albiet with a heavy african american population and heavy spending by the incumbent who was the Speaker.
SD-12
Clinton +2, R incumbent + 1.5
SD -10 CLinton +12, R incumbent and flip to D+10


Anyway I wouldn't take off year elections to analyze a presidential/congressional election too much but none of the Data I showed here shows that Spanberger is in an improved position, infact it looks worse for her as her District isn't a narrow Clinton or Trump district but Trump +7, overall this rating CHANGE was kinda absurd.

[lfromnj]

#Resistance cash has flowed in.
https://twitter.com/TedraCobb/status/1195828276192796673?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw%7Ct...

Its not unwinnable like Ky senate but more like CA 22

[lfromnj]

The new NC-08 is the only new seat on the fringes of competitiveness, but it would still likely take a reasonably good year for Democrats to actually flip.

NC 1 wont be competitive 2020 but if it continues in 2022 it could be competitive  in a low turnout D midterm.

[lfromnj]

https://twitter.com/brookefoxnews/status/1204047644492017668

[lfromnj]

https://twitter.com/ChadPergram/status/1204409827457486848

Time to break out the champagne.

....Why?

He promised only 4 terms. FF move to retire here,actually held to his promises.

[lfromnj]

Yeah, it’s becoming boring..... didn’t you know that VA-10 is more competitive than MN-7 ? VA-10 voted for Dole after all !

I’m honestly surprised that they’re targeting MI-SEN and MN-7, lol.

Well, yeah it’s a progress compared to 2018. Unfortunately it doesn’t seem that PA-8 will be a serious target.

Speaking about PA 8th
https://twitter.com/Politics1com/status/1204806116128935939

[lfromnj]

https://twitter.com/ThomasSuddes/status/1205631064682770433

Ryan is safe for 2020, though he could easily become a redistricting victim in 2022.

Also my opinion, now OH 13th had, I think, the biggest R swing of any congressional district in 2018

Similar to WV-3 having possibly the largest D swing of any congressional district in 2018.

 it was NJ 11th IIRC.

[lfromnj]

Never read too much into polls of single congressional districts, especially with small sample sizes and if they’re only *reported* on Twitter.

This is MUlaw but did they even weight the 3rd district or is it just a regular sub sample?

[lfromnj]

I think a Dem net pickup would require something more dramatic than just those seats.  Cartwright, Peterson, Brindisi, the open IA-02, etc. are going to flip unless the presidential election is a Dem blowout.

What? This is Iowa's most Democratic district.

?
All 3 districts are equally D.

[lfromnj]

Ok, and unlike Indiana 08 Trump still has plenty of room to grow in districts like MI-01 where he didn't even break 60 in 2016

And plenty of room to fall in the Detroit suburbs and Grand Rapids area.

Oh yes the well vaunted Detroit burns like down river Wayne. Macomber county and Monroe county and NW Oakland and Livingston.

[lfromnj]

https://twitter.com/NYTnickc/status/1228333195214626818

[lfromnj]

The GOP nominated two far right candidates for the run off for TX-22. Dems nominated Sri Kulkarni who ran in 2018 and got 46.4% of the vote.

Are dems now likely to pick up this seat? It was probably a toss up before the primary.

I mean I dont get why people would expect Pierce bush to go when he literally went to a #resistance rally lol.

[lfromnj]

https://www.desmoinesregister.com/story/news/politics/iowa-poll/2020/03/11/iowans-lean-toward-republicans-congress-election-2020-iowa-poll/4978477002/

D's down in all 4 Iowa districts in a SELZER poll!
Anyway don't worry too much as its a smallish sample for each district but if you average the 3 districts  you still have D's down by like 3 or 4 points which is not pretty.

[lfromnj]

https://www.desmoinesregister.com/story/news/politics/iowa-poll/2020/03/11/iowans-lean-toward-republicans-congress-election-2020-iowa-poll/4978477002/

D's down in all 4 Iowa districts in a SELZER poll!
Anyway don't worry too much as its a smallish sample for each district but if you average the 3 districts  you still have D's down by like 3 or 4 points which is not pretty.

Useless since it didn’t poll named people, but Iowa is going to be a Democratic wipeout in a Biden midterm

A selzer poll isn't useless lol.