2020 Generic Ballot / Recruitment / Fundraising / Ratings Megathread v2

[MT Treasurer]

UM/Big Sky MT-AL Poll:

36% Kathleen Williams (D)
35% Matt Rosendale (R)
20% Corey Stapleton (R)
3% Joe Dooling (R)
2% Matt Rains (D)
2% Tom Winter (D)
2% Timothy Johnson (R)

http://bit.ly/2LVT06u

[MT Treasurer]

UM/Big Sky MT-AL Poll:

36% Kathleen Williams (D)
35% Matt Rosendale (R)
20% Corey Stapleton (R)
3% Joe Dooling (R)
2% Matt Rains (D)
2% Tom Winter (D)
2% Timothy Johnson (R)

http://bit.ly/2LVT06u

Why are they polling it that way?  It isn't Louisiana!

Because they’re bad at this and shouldn’t be doing this.

[MT Treasurer]

Cook Political moved IL-13 to the Toss Up column from Lean R (though they didn't announce it):

https://cookpolitical.com/ratings/house-race-ratings

Cook also moved MI-SEN from Likely to Lean D.

[MT Treasurer]

WHAT!?! Trump is more unpopular in all the competitive Texas seats than he is in IA-2? This can’t be.

Didn't you learn your lesson already from KY?

The KY election didn’t disprove the urban/suburban shifts. Far from it when you look at how strongly suburban (or exurban, if you will) counties like Boone, Kenton, Campbell, Oldham, Madison, etc. trended away from Bevin. It wasn’t just Jefferson and Fayette.

[MT Treasurer]

You could make a case for Lean D, but then he should probably rate VA-02 Lean D too.

[MT Treasurer]

Speaking of NY-22 :

https://www.nystateofpolitics.com/2019/12/ny-22-mccarthy-endorses-tenney/

Not a very smart move to say the least.

Brindisi is a very lucky guy

It would be amazing if the GOP threw away their best chance to win back the most winnable seat for them in 2020.

It’s just the NRCC and NRSC doing what they always do: electing Democrats.

[MT Treasurer]

Yeah, it’s becoming boring..... didn’t you know that VA-10 is more competitive than MN-7 ? VA-10 voted for Dole after all !

I’m honestly surprised that they’re targeting MI-SEN and MN-7, lol.

[MT Treasurer]

Never read too much into polls of single congressional districts, especially with small sample sizes and if they’re only *reported* on Twitter.

[MT Treasurer]

Never read too much into polls of single congressional districts, especially with small sample sizes and if they’re only *reported* on Twitter.

lol. If this was a poll showing Trump unpopular in GA or something you'd cream your pants over it.

Believe it or not, but I wouldn’t. There’s so much evidence out there which points to Trump being in a world of trouble in GA that there’d be no need to cling to random tweets.

[MT Treasurer]

UT-04 is probably the most overrated pick-up opportunity for the GOP.

[MT Treasurer]

He voted for Hillary Clinton in 2016 which could help him in this district.

Nah, it really won’t.

[MT Treasurer]

MT-AL (UM/Big Sky Poll):

Kathleen Williams (D) 36%
Matt Rosendale (R) 36%
Corey Stapleton (R) 19%
Joe Dooling (R) 3%
Tom Winter (D) 3%
Timothy Johnson (R) 2%
John Evankovich (R) 2%

https://www.umt.edu/bigskypoll/Methodology/Spring2020_Aggregate%20Report.pdf

[MT Treasurer]

DMR pollhas Ernst’s approval “falling” to 47...with 37% disapproval. Still Safe R if anyone was wondering

+10 (47/37) after an onslaught of Democratic attack ads? If it wasn’t for her retail politics, she’d probably be as unpopular as Collins right now.

[MT Treasurer]

DMR pollhas Ernst’s approval “falling” to 47...with 37% disapproval. Still Safe R if anyone was wondering

+10 (47/37) after an onslaught of Democratic attack ads? If it wasn’t for her retail politics, she’d probably be as unpopular as Collins right now.

It’d be pretty funny if we see Trump and Ernst easily win Iowa but Democrats sweep all four of the House seats. I actually think if King makes it out of the primary on June 2 that he might even be a bit of an underdog after him going even further off the deep end with racist stuff since the 2018 election and Republicans cutting him loose. Of course, it would only be a one-term rental there, but it’d still be pretty incredible to see the ticket splitting in that seat in particular.

If Democrats actually sweep all four of the state's House seats, the "IA is not a Republican-leaning state, it’s just a Trump state that’s Tossup/Lean D again" takes will be insufferable. But boy, 2022 would be a colossal massacre in IA under a Democratic presidency (they’d probably lose all four House seats except maybe Axne's).

[MT Treasurer]

OK-05 Amber Integrated (very small sample size, so take it with a grain of salt):

44% Republican challenger
40% Kendra Horn (D, inc.)

https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/20200311_OK.pdf

[MT Treasurer]

And no, Golden is not likely to win re election. It's possible but he's definitely the underdog at this point. The voters in the district are not progressives like the bernie cult insisted they were. You really think that Golden is going to win when they put a picture of him next to Kamala Harris in one of their dumb ads and claim "Jared Golden endorsed Joe Biden and Kamala Harris, who want to overturn hyde amendment and allow your taxpayer dollars to be used to fund infanticide." And it doesnt matter how moderate he is, if he endorses Biden/Harris, he'll be toast.

In every wave election (which is what 2020 is shaping up to be) you’ll see incumbents or even challengers of the winning party (significantly) outperforming their district's/state's partisan baseline and/or unfavorable trends. People like Golden could easily win in 2020 (especially given how badly [but unsurprisingly] the NRCC seems to have bungled candidate recruitment and resource allocation this year), but they’re obviously going to face an uphill battle or be (close to) DOA in 2022. Even someone like Scholten could conceivably win this fall, but unless the Republican Party is going the way of the Whigs, he’d get wiped off the face of the earth in 2022.

[MT Treasurer]

Univeristy of Montana poll has Matt Rosendale leading Kathleen Williams by 8 points, 45/37.

Same poll has Trump +14 and Bullock +4.

Also has Gianforte leading by 10.

I honestly don’t think they could have released a more #populist poll.

[MT Treasurer]

It'll be +20% when the October surprise that Cooney was actually born in New Hampshire is revealed.

Trust me, if Cooney had been born in NH, 95% of my posts on this forum would have been deleted by now and I’d be busy doing other things at this very moment.

Fun fact: Cooney was actually delivered in D.C. and only arrived in Montana a few days later. #CarpetbaggingCooney will be DOA the minute someone adds his birthplace to his Wikipedia entry because Montana's nativist streak™ is just that strong (or so I’ve been told).

[MT Treasurer]

District of Cooney, not good!

Career Cooney: D.C. Deception in Diapers

[MT Treasurer]

The undecideds in AK-AL are apparently very Republican-leaning, so he might not underperform Sullivan/Trump that much. But yeah, I think this is a better pick-up opportunity for Democrats than MT-AL (don’t buy that the Williams internal poll accurately reflects the current state of the race — it’s somewhat close but more like Rosendale +4-5). Very telling that Williams' internal didn’t release the Senate numbers.

[MT Treasurer]

That wasn't very populist of her. Safe Montanan -> Tilt Maryland Matt?

Kathleen Williams isn’t a true Montanan, she was born in CA (as were Gianforte and Daines). Cooney was born in D.C. and Rosendale in MD.

Bullock is the only true Montanan of the six.

[MT Treasurer]

I don't think this is that true of Selzer though (though I'd be happy to be corrected)? Even she had Greenfield +3 not too long ago.

Even gold standard Selzer had Hubbell ahead by 2 in their November poll, he ended up losing by 3.

[MT Treasurer]

Losing FL-26 would be even more embarrassing for Democrats than losing CA-25, and that says a lot. It’s not going to happen, though.

[MT Treasurer]

My guess is MO-02.

https://twitter.com/Redistrict/status/1290799946267070467

Could also be IN-05. Anyway, I think the national GOP is going to just cut Trump loose and try to limit the downballot damage as much as possible.

That's impossible when they're tied at the hip.

If they try to abandon Trump, downballot Rs are going to see something similar to AL-2 in 2016. It would be a disaster.

They don’t have to outright disavow him like Roby did, though. It’s just that shifting resources to / focusing on downballot races (especially in the Senate) is just way more important than the money pit which is Trump's doomed reelection bid. Denying Biden a Democratic Senate and paving the way for a takeover of the House in 2022 should be their top priority.

They can still salvage MT/KS/AK/IA/etc., even if the presidency is a lost cause.

[MT Treasurer]

Yep, so Rosendale being up 6 in an R internal is not that great, especially considering people were freaking out that Emerson allegedly had Rs up over 6 in that poll a few weeks ago

Emerson didn’t poll the House race.

Also re MT-AL poll - no prez OR senate #s in there...

...Yes? Because they didn’t poll any of those races, maybe? (they’ve done polls for the Rosendale campaign/exclusively for Rosendale's races in the past as well)