2020 Generic Ballot / Recruitment / Fundraising / Ratings Megathread v2

[VAR]

PA-01
American Viewpoint/R internal
July 13-15
400 LV
MoE: 4.9%

Fitzpatrick 50%
Finello 35%
Libertarian candidate 5%
Undecided 8%

https://app.luminpdf.com/viewer/5f164a1e9bdaca001a78b17b

[Brittain33]

I just saw that Harley Rouda (CA-48) challenged Michelle Steel to 8 debates, and she hasn’t responded. I wonder if he benefited more than most CA Dems from the quality of the incumbent he was challenging and this seat snaps back.

[TrendsareUsuallyReal]

I just saw that Harley Rouda (CA-48) challenged Michelle Steel to 8 debates, and she hasn’t responded. I wonder if he benefited more than most CA Dems from the quality of the incumbent he was challenging and this seat snaps back.

Other statewide California Democrats won CA-48 in 2018 aside from Newsom, so I doubt it.

[Oryxslayer]

I just saw that Harley Rouda (CA-48) challenged Michelle Steel to 8 debates, and she hasn’t responded. I wonder if he benefited more than most CA Dems from the quality of the incumbent he was challenging and this seat snaps back.

I also saw this. the usual rule is that if you call for a superfluous number of debates, you are concerned about your internals - either down or consistently tied. 

[Mr.Phips]

I just saw that Harley Rouda (CA-48) challenged Michelle Steel to 8 debates, and she hasn’t responded. I wonder if he benefited more than most CA Dems from the quality of the incumbent he was challenging and this seat snaps back.

I also saw this. the usual rule is that if you call for a superfluous number of debates, you are concerned about your internals - either down or consistently tied. 

I feel like if Rouda was behind or tied, we would have seen a poll from Republicans by now.

[Brittain33]

I just saw that Harley Rouda (CA-48) challenged Michelle Steel to 8 debates, and she hasn’t responded. I wonder if he benefited more than most CA Dems from the quality of the incumbent he was challenging and this seat snaps back.

I also saw this. the usual rule is that if you call for a superfluous number of debates, you are concerned about your internals - either down or consistently tied.  

I feel like if Rouda was behind or tied, we would have seen a poll from Republicans by now.

Haha, maybe he’s just exceptionally civic-minded. Or freaked out by CA25, which he shouldn’t be in a presidential year.

[Landslide Lyndon]

I just saw that Harley Rouda (CA-48) challenged Michelle Steel to 8 debates, and she hasn’t responded. I wonder if he benefited more than most CA Dems from the quality of the incumbent he was challenging and this seat snaps back.

Other statewide California Democrats won CA-48 in 2018 aside from Newsom, so I doubt it.

The only statewide Democrat who won this district in a D vs. R race was Yee, and even she barely.
I expect Biden to carry it comfortably but it's obvious that Republicans have still considerable downballot strength here.

[GeorgiaModerate]

MI-06: Gravis, July 16, 604 LV (Richardson internal)

Richardson 56
Upton 36

https://docs.google.com/document/d/1O4uevaasIOGnwxQALcpeWRT8_38Qxi_38NObAsgpa_I/edit

[n1240]

MI-06: Gravis, July 16, 604 LV (Richardson internal)

Richardson 56
Upton 36

https://docs.google.com/document/d/1O4uevaasIOGnwxQALcpeWRT8_38Qxi_38NObAsgpa_I/edit

Serious OR-05 Callahan+23 energy in this poll.

GCB is R+3 too lol. Seems they didn't prompt party affiliation of the candidates in the first question.

[Gracile]

The DCCC has started running digital ads in three battleground districts in Texas (TX-10, TX-22, TX-24):

https://www.texastribune.org/theblast/2020/07/21/#dccc-launches-digital-ads-against-3-republicans-ba

[Interlocutor is just not there yet]

The DCCC has started running digital ads in three battleground districts in Texas (TX-10, TX-22, TX-24):

https://www.texastribune.org/theblast/2020/07/21/#dccc-launches-digital-ads-against-3-republicans-ba

Very nice. Very glad about TX-22, since that seemed to be added to their target list after last week's primary.

Hopefully, TX-21 gets a good-sized ad buy soon

[YE]

The DCCC has started running digital ads in three battleground districts in Texas (TX-10, TX-22, TX-24):

https://www.texastribune.org/theblast/2020/07/21/#dccc-launches-digital-ads-against-3-republicans-ba

Hopefully this is a sign they aren't leaving Siegel in the dust.

[Beet]

https://twitter.com/mjhegar/status/1285611112612888577

[lfromnj]

The DCCC has started running digital ads in three battleground districts in Texas (TX-10, TX-22, TX-24):

https://www.texastribune.org/theblast/2020/07/21/#dccc-launches-digital-ads-against-3-republicans-ba

Very nice. Very glad about TX-22, since that seemed to be added to their target list after last week's primary.

Hopefully, TX-21 gets a good-sized ad buy soon

Wendy Davis has fundraised more than Hegar lol, she doesn't need any extra DCCC cash.

[Interlocutor is just not there yet]

The DCCC has started running digital ads in three battleground districts in Texas (TX-10, TX-22, TX-24):

https://www.texastribune.org/theblast/2020/07/21/#dccc-launches-digital-ads-against-3-republicans-ba

Very nice. Very glad about TX-22, since that seemed to be added to their target list after last week's primary.

Hopefully, TX-21 gets a good-sized ad buy soon

Wendy Davis has fundraised more than Hegar lol, she doesn't need any extra DCCC cash.

Damn you're certainly right. Could also explain why they're not spending in TX-23. Very encouraging

Even if Biden doesn't seriously contest it, I'm very pleased to see the Texas Democratic Party lay some campaign groundwork. If Beto's 2018 run accomplished anything, it was putting giant bullseyes around the specific districts to target this year and in the next few elections

[VAR]

OH-01
GQR/Schroder internal
June 29-July 2
605 LV
MoE: 4.0%

Chabot 48%
Schroder 46%
Undecided 6%

https://thehill.com/homenews/campaign/508362-internal-poll-shows-tight-race-brewing-in-key-ohio-house-race

[VAR]

Morning Consult
July 17-19
1991 RV
MoE: 2%

Democratic 47%
Republican 37%
Undecided 16%

https://assets.morningconsult.com/wp-uploads/2020/07/22072029/200766_crosstabs_POLITICO_RVs_v2.pdf

[ON Progressive]

https://apnews.com/8fd274506700ceb33274c8753010542f Shreveport mayor Adrian Perkins (D) is in for the Louisiana Senate race.

[Landslide Lyndon]

Morning Consult
July 17-19
1991 RV
MoE: 2%

Democratic 47%
Republican 37%
Undecided 16%

https://assets.morningconsult.com/wp-uploads/2020/07/22072029/200766_crosstabs_POLITICO_RVs_v2.pdf

So much for all those chicken littles who were worried that people will vote Republican downballot to put a check on president Biden.

[wbrocks67]

Morning Consult
July 17-19
1991 RV
MoE: 2%

Democratic 47%
Republican 37%
Undecided 16%

https://assets.morningconsult.com/wp-uploads/2020/07/22072029/200766_crosstabs_POLITICO_RVs_v2.pdf

So much for all those chicken littles who were worried that people will vote Republican downballot to put a check on president Biden.

FINALLY! I was wondering why MC stopped doing their GCB like 3 months ago

[Person Man]

Morning Consult
July 17-19
1991 RV
MoE: 2%

Democratic 47%
Republican 37%
Undecided 16%

https://assets.morningconsult.com/wp-uploads/2020/07/22072029/200766_crosstabs_POLITICO_RVs_v2.pdf

So much for all those chicken littles who were worried that people will vote Republican downballot to put a check on president Biden.

FINALLY! I was wondering why MC stopped doing their GCB like 3 months ago

Trends?

[Landslide Lyndon]

Morning Consult
July 17-19
1991 RV
MoE: 2%

Democratic 47%
Republican 37%
Undecided 16%

https://assets.morningconsult.com/wp-uploads/2020/07/22072029/200766_crosstabs_POLITICO_RVs_v2.pdf

So much for all those chicken littles who were worried that people will vote Republican downballot to put a check on president Biden.

FINALLY! I was wondering why MC stopped doing their GCB like 3 months ago

Trends?

Their last poll in May was D+5.

[Mr.Phips]

Morning Consult
July 17-19
1991 RV
MoE: 2%

Democratic 47%
Republican 37%
Undecided 16%

https://assets.morningconsult.com/wp-uploads/2020/07/22072029/200766_crosstabs_POLITICO_RVs_v2.pdf

So much for all those chicken littles who were worried that people will vote Republican downballot to put a check on president Biden.

Still something to potentially be concerned about for Dems.  I mean, after 2016, you can’t safely assume that one candidate won’t win the Presidential race.  

[wbrocks67]

NJ-03
CLF / R internal

Andy Kim (D) 45%
David Richter (R) 42%

Tragic for an R internal

https://newjerseyglobe.com/congress/gop-polls-hows-dead-heat-in-nj-3-race-between-kim-richter/

[Mr.Phips]

OH-01
GQR/Schroder internal
June 29-July 2
605 LV
MoE: 4.0%

Chabot 48%
Schroder 46%
Undecided 6%

https://thehill.com/homenews/campaign/508362-internal-poll-shows-tight-race-brewing-in-key-ohio-house-race

I’d be shocked if Chabot actually lost.  Despite being very conservative, he kept winning in a Dem leaning district from 1994-2008, only losing in 2008 due to high black turnout due to Obama (he still overperformed McCain by about four points).  Having Warren county gerrymandered into the district makes it even tougher for Dems.