2020 Generic Ballot / Recruitment / Fundraising / Ratings Megathread v2

[morgieb]

I am not surprised by this, Biden sapped up all the oxygen out the room except for Bernie online donations; consequently,  online donations have haulted due to the presidential race. As long as gas prices are elevated, people arent gonna keep giving. They still havent polled MA primary election and its March 3rd between Markey and Kennedy. Pelosi is begging for more donations

But, Trump is still a weaker Candidate than an Establishment R would be and he is beatable and so is the Leadership in the Senate. People are limiting their candidates who they are donating to

How the hell did this get 3 recommendations?

The OC love is basically ironic/having him as their quasi-mascot at this point.

[morgieb]

DMR pollhas Ernst’s approval “falling” to 47...with 37% disapproval. Still Safe R if anyone was wondering

+10 (47/37) after an onslaught of Democratic attack ads? If it wasn’t for her retail politics, she’d probably be as unpopular as Collins right now.

I am stunned at how well Ernst has done in the fake moderate game v Collins.

Well Collins represents a Democratic state whereas Iowa is increasingly Republican.

[morgieb]

Jaime Harrison raked in $7M+ and Amy McGrath raked in $12M+

Am I the only one not mad about this? First of all, I'm not saying they have a "lean" chance of winning, but hey, that's a LOT of cash, so you never know what could happen. Meanwhile, it would help the Democrats down ballot in both states, so it's worth it for that alone.

I remember similar bitching about donating to Beto. Look what happened there.

Fortunately though Dems do not have a shortage of small donors.

[morgieb]

https://www.dailykos.com/stories/2020/4/30/1941431/-Even-if-Republicans-run-the-table-that-won-t-be-enough-to-take-back-the-House-our-new-ratings-show

Daily Kos came out with House ratings. For the most part, they actually seem pretty reasonable, though I might move IA-01, CA-21 and CA-48 (especially if they include FL-26, NJ-07 and TX-07) to tossup.

Would also move TX 24 to tossup, its a carbon copy of GA 7th(+23 Romney to +6.5 Trump and solid margins in 2018 statewide races)

The primary matters there IMO, though even with Valenzuela it's still a toss-up (would be far more of a problem if she was a Berniecrat rather than a Warrencrat)

[morgieb]

https://twitter.com/realDonaldTrump/status/1257286796523814914
Trump is actually endorsing the grift
.

lmao. Running against The Squad seems like the easiest way to get rich quick.

[morgieb]

https://twitter.com/kirk_bado/status/1265262975096684545

Oh thank christ. Plame would be a Bachmann-esque disaster, and that's not even considering that she's to Fernandez's right!

[morgieb]

https://twitter.com/rpyers/status/1283822699408576512?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw%7Ctwca...

LMAO

[morgieb]

https://twitter.com/rpyers/status/1283822699408576512?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw%7Ctwca...
LMAO

Lighting money on fire is a bipartisan affair, so don't laugh too hard. However, it does appear that McGrath's millions may end up bearing some fruit if KY06 ends up returning to it's 2018 position on the battlefield via down-ballot boosts.

I know, but it feels like the first three are getting more money than the people that actually have a shot. Say what you will at McGrath, but she's pretty much the only really comparable one in this circumstance and most of the other high earners are people who can win.

[morgieb]

They now have 10 GOP-held seats in Texas outside of Safe GOP: a 2020 Biden landslide could make the house 23-13 for the Dems

Even for the morally-unmoored GOP that would probably be at challenge to gerrymander in 2022.

I mean if that was to happen the Texas State House would be long gone so.....

[morgieb]

I wonder if Pete Sessions is weighed down by #MAGA hating Jeff Sessions and not knowing the difference.

I must admit, it would be hilarious if true.

But the bottom line was that Trump was only ahead by 1 in that poll, so unless something really weird is going on in Texas it's safe to say it's junk.