Canadian Election 2019

[King of Kensington]

Six non-Alberta/Sask Conservative ridings had higher vote shares than the top Liberal, NDP, Bloc or Green ridings (albeit five are in Manitoba): Portage-Lisgar (71%), Prince George-Peace River-Northern Rockies (69.9%), Provencher (65.9%), Dauphin-Swan River-Neepawa (64.5%), Brandon-Souris (63.5%), Selkirk-Interlake (62.7%).

[DistingFlyer]

Yellowhead has finally reported its official results (twenty left now). No other riding is remotely likely to post a majority of forty thousand or more now, so here's the updated list:

52544 - Mike Lake (Cons) in Edmonton – Wetaskiwin (2019)
51389 - Maurizio Bevilacqua (Lib) in York North (1993)
50124 - Damien Kurek (Cons) in Battle River – Crowfoot (2019)
50016 - John Barlow (Cons) in Foothills (2019)
49970 - Tom Kmiec (Cons) in Calgary Shepard (2019)
49819 - Earl Dreeshen (Cons) in Red Deer – Mountain View (2019)
47831 - Blaine Calkins (Cons) in Red Deer – Lacombe (2019)
47763 - Bobbie Sparrow (PC) in Calgary South (1984)
47079 - Blake Richards (Cons) in Banff – Airdrie (2019)
46953 - Chris Warkentin (Cons) in Grande Prairie – Mackenzie (2019)
46295 - Dane Lloyd (Cons) in Sturgeon River – Parkland (2019)
44733 - Garnett Genuis (Cons) in Sherwood Park – Fort Saskatchewan (2019)
44586 - Shannon Stubbs (Cons) in Lakeland (2019)
43106 - Martin Shields (Cons) in Bow River (2019)
43052 - Stephanie Kusie (Cons) in Calgary Midnapore (2019)
42928 - Benoit Sauvageau (BQ) in Terrebonne (1993)
42066 - Gerald Soroka (Cons) in Yellowhead (2019)
42047 - Kevin Sorenson (Cons) in Battle River – Crowfoot (2015)
41691 - Jason Kenney (Cons) in Calgary Southeast (2011)
40480 - Monique Begin (Lib) in Saint-Leonard – Anjou (1979)
40189 - Don Boudria (Lib) in Glengarry – Prescott – Russell (1993)

[adma]

I'm sort of surprised I missed Edmonton-Wetaskiwin, either a larger electorate or just significantly higher turnout (I'm assuming the latter as I'm assuming it's a more suburban riding).

The population went up from 110,000 in 2011 to nearly 160,000 in 2016.  A beneficiary of boomburbia, much like Vaughan in 1993.

[King of Kensington]

Two Saskatchewan ridings crossed the 80% threshold:  Souris-Moose Mountain (84.4%) and Cypress Hills-Grasslands (81.1%).  Hard to believe the Liberals (!) eked out a victory in the former in 1993 but the riding after that became a Reform/Alliance/Con stronghold (though Grant Devine's indy run made things interesting in 2004).

[adma]

With all the talk of votes vs seat pluralities, it's interesting how when it comes to Student Vote Canada, the third place party in votes got the most seats, and the party with the most votes was third place in seats.  (And nobody got more than 25.1% of the vote.)
 https://studentvote.ca/canada/results/

[DistingFlyer]

With all the talk of votes vs seat pluralities, it's interesting how when it comes to Student Vote Canada, the third place party in votes got the most seats, and the party with the most votes was third place in seats.  (And nobody got more than 25.1% of the vote.)
 https://studentvote.ca/canada/results/

Interesting to see it broken down by province; the low Bloc total in Quebec (both votes and ridings) is encouraging.

[Oryxslayer]

With all the talk of votes vs seat pluralities, it's interesting how when it comes to Student Vote Canada, the third place party in votes got the most seats, and the party with the most votes was third place in seats.  (And nobody got more than 25.1% of the vote.)
 https://studentvote.ca/canada/results/

Interesting to see it broken down by province; the low Bloc total in Quebec (both votes and ridings) is encouraging.

We have known for a while that separatism is a dead issue among the younger generations, with the exception being the 'radical-on-everything' types that are lockstep with the QS. Those born recently only have memory of the Bloc as a separatist party, so even their movement away on that issue might not help with the youth. There are different battles to be fought, so why bother picking up the banner left by your parents when the Bloc doesn't own your issues the best. Additionally rural Quebec has that rural problem where the youth are heading for the Liberal/NDP cities and not staying in communities more tied to the Bloc.

[DistingFlyer]

With all the talk of votes vs seat pluralities, it's interesting how when it comes to Student Vote Canada, the third place party in votes got the most seats, and the party with the most votes was third place in seats.  (And nobody got more than 25.1% of the vote.)
 https://studentvote.ca/canada/results/

Interesting to see it broken down by province; the low Bloc total in Quebec (both votes and ridings) is encouraging.

We have known for a while that separatism is a dead issue among the younger generations, with the exception being the 'radical-on-everything' types that are lockstep with the QS. Those born recently only have memory of the Bloc as a separatist party, so even their movement away on that issue might not help with the youth. There are different battles to be fought, so why bother picking up the banner left by your parents when the Bloc doesn't own your issues the best. Additionally rural Quebec has that rural problem where the youth are heading for the Liberal/NDP cities and not staying in communities more tied to the Bloc.

Agreed on all points - just having same confirmed by the figures was very nice to see.

[Gass3268]

Let's put it this way: What is the "Calgary" of the USA?

Houston, probably.

I don't think you can say that after 2016 and 2018.

Tulsa maybe?

[DistingFlyer]

Here's a breakdown of ridings by party & marginality. For the purposes of this table, 'Safe' means a margin of 25% or more, 'Marginal' means winning by under 10%, and 'Moderate' is between the two.



Overall, the distribution of ridings within the three categories isn't much different from usual, though within parties (specifically government vs. opposition) we see some notable differences.

Firstly, just over a quarter of Liberal ridings were won by 25% or more - the lowest share for a Liberal government in the last century, and the lowest for any Government since 1962. Conversely, about 45% of Tory ridings were won by such margins - the highest share for them when they haven't won power in the last century, and the highest for a Liberal or Tory Official Opposition (the 1993 Bloc & 2000 Alliance had more) since 1979 (coincidentally, the last time the Liberals lost while still dominating Quebec).

The comparison between this week's Tory dominance of the Prairies (particularly Alberta & Saskatchewan) doesn't stop there if you look at the number of ridings won by 50% or more ('Ultra-Safe'): thirty-two this time, all by Tories (once more, say it with me now: the most in a century). The Liberals exceeded this number in 1980 (the last time they dominated Quebec, with 68% of the vote), and nearly matched it in 1921 & 1979 (albeit in a smaller Commons). The lack of any Liberal margins above this threshold is also a first for a winning party.

[adma]

With all the talk of votes vs seat pluralities, it's interesting how when it comes to Student Vote Canada, the third place party in votes got the most seats, and the party with the most votes was third place in seats.  (And nobody got more than 25.1% of the vote.)
 https://studentvote.ca/canada/results/

Interesting to see it broken down by province; the low Bloc total in Quebec (both votes and ridings) is encouraging.

We have known for a while that separatism is a dead issue among the younger generations, with the exception being the 'radical-on-everything' types that are lockstep with the QS. Those born recently only have memory of the Bloc as a separatist party, so even their movement away on that issue might not help with the youth. There are different battles to be fought, so why bother picking up the banner left by your parents when the Bloc doesn't own your issues the best. Additionally rural Quebec has that rural problem where the youth are heading for the Liberal/NDP cities and not staying in communities more tied to the Bloc.

Agreed on all points - just having same confirmed by the figures was very nice to see.

Though young people being young people, I do notice your typical upticks in what might be called the trollish "Bart vote" (wherever there were Communist, Marxist-Leninist, Rhinoceros, Marijuana candidates running) and the more earnest "Lisa vote" (not just NDP/Green, but Animal Alliance and Stop Climate Change).

And perhaps, some might say in a scarier echo/reflection of the far right's young-male social-media outreach, the People's vote is also above par (though never in winning contention; almost like it's all confined to the scary-incel lunch room table)

[cinyc]

Let's put it this way: What is the "Calgary" of the USA?

Houston, probably.

I don't think you can say that after 2016 and 2018.

Tulsa maybe?

I meant more culturally than electorally - a city that's home to a lot of oil company HQ and cowboy boot swagger.

[DistingFlyer]

With all the talk of votes vs seat pluralities, it's interesting how when it comes to Student Vote Canada, the third place party in votes got the most seats, and the party with the most votes was third place in seats.  (And nobody got more than 25.1% of the vote.)
 https://studentvote.ca/canada/results/

Interesting to see it broken down by province; the low Bloc total in Quebec (both votes and ridings) is encouraging.

We have known for a while that separatism is a dead issue among the younger generations, with the exception being the 'radical-on-everything' types that are lockstep with the QS. Those born recently only have memory of the Bloc as a separatist party, so even their movement away on that issue might not help with the youth. There are different battles to be fought, so why bother picking up the banner left by your parents when the Bloc doesn't own your issues the best. Additionally rural Quebec has that rural problem where the youth are heading for the Liberal/NDP cities and not staying in communities more tied to the Bloc.

Agreed on all points - just having same confirmed by the figures was very nice to see.

Though young people being young people, I do notice your typical upticks in what might be called the trollish "Bart vote" (wherever there were Communist, Marxist-Leninist, Rhinoceros, Marijuana candidates running) and the more earnest "Lisa vote" (not just NDP/Green, but Animal Alliance and Stop Climate Change).

And perhaps, some might say in a scarier echo/reflection of the far right's young-male social-media outreach, the People's vote is also above par (though never in winning contention; almost like it's all confined to the scary-incel lunch room table)

Could be, though I'd wager that most of their supporters belong with what you call the 'trollish "Bart vote"' than anything else.

[DistingFlyer]

Here's a further breakdown by party of the average majority & average vote share of winners this time:

Liberal
Average Margin (%): 18.0% (lowest for a winning party since 1962)
Average Margin (votes): 9315 (lowest for a winning party since 2004)
Largest Margin (%): 49.4% in Saint-Léonard – Saint-Michel (lowest for a winning party since 1957)
Largest Margin (votes): 25539 in Lac-Saint-Louis (lowest for a winning party since 1962)
Average Vote: 46.6% (lowest for a winning party since 1962)
Largest Vote (%): 62.2% in Scarborough – Rouge Park (lowest ever for a winning party)
Candidates with >50% of the Vote: 54 (34% of MPs)

Conservative
Average Margin (%): 31.1% (highest for Conservatives since at least 1917, and highest for anyone since 1980)
Average Margin (votes): 17518 (highest ever)
Largest Margin (%): 80.4% in Battle River – Crowfoot (highest for Conservatives since 1917, highest for a losing party since 1917, & highest for anyone since 1968)
Largest Margin (votes): 52544 in Edmonton – Wetaskiwin (highest ever)
Average Vote: 54.8% (highest for small-c conservatives since Alliance in 2000, & capital-c Conservatives since 1958; highest for anyone since 2004)
Largest Vote: 85.5% in Battle River – Crowfoot (highest for Conservatives since 1917, highest for a losing party since 1957, & highest for anyone since 1968)
Candidates with >50% of the Vote: 57 (47% of MPs)

New Democratic
Average Margin (%): 12.7% (better than 2015, but less than 2006-2011)
Average Margin (votes): 6079 (see above remarks)
Largest Margin (%): 34.4% in Vancouver East (see above remarks again)
Largest Margin (votes): 19151 in Vancouver East (better than 2015, but less than 2008-2011)
Average Vote: 41.1% (better than 2015, but less than 2000-2011)
Largest Vote: 52.6% in Vancouver East (see above remarks)
Candidates with >50% of the Vote: 1 (4% of MPs)

Bloc
Average Margin (%): 16.9% (much better than 2011-2015, but less than 2004-2008)
Average Margin (votes): 9443 (see above remarks)
Largest Margin (%): 38.8% in Bécanour – Nicolet – Saurel (much better than 2011-2015, but less than 1993-2008)
Largest Margin (votes): 20595 in Joliette (better than 2011-2015, but less than 2004-2008)
Average Vote: 45.1% (better than 2011-2015, but less than 1993-2008)
Largest Vote: 58.2% in Joliette (better than 2008-2015, but less than 1993-2006)
Candidates with >50% of the Vote: 11 (34% of MPs)


Overall
Average Margin (%): 22.1% (highest since 2008)
Average Margin (votes): 12015 (highest since 1993)
Largest Margin (%): 80.4% in Battle River – Crowfoot (highest since 1968)
Largest Margin (votes): 52544 in Edmonton – Wetaskiwin (highest ever)
Average Vote: 48.9% (higher than 2015, but lower than 2011)
Largest Vote: 85.5% in Battle River – Crowfoot (highest since 1968)
Candidates with >50% of the Vote: 123 (36% of MPs) (lowest as a percentage of the House since 1997; 2000 was the last time a majority of MPs were elected with a majority of the vote)

[adma]

Though young people being young people, I do notice your typical upticks in what might be called the trollish "Bart vote" (wherever there were Communist, Marxist-Leninist, Rhinoceros, Marijuana candidates running) and the more earnest "Lisa vote" (not just NDP/Green, but Animal Alliance and Stop Climate Change).

And perhaps, some might say in a scarier echo/reflection of the far right's young-male social-media outreach, the People's vote is also above par (though never in winning contention; almost like it's all confined to the scary-incel lunch room table)

Could be, though I'd wager that most of their supporters belong with what you call the 'trollish "Bart vote"' than anything else.

Except that the PPC label doesn't have the casual "immediacy" of the Bart-vote exemplars listed above.  It's like you have to be *really* deep into and groomed by a beyond-Bart subreddit/chan/gamer-forum culture to take that option--and it accords with the far-right's current young-male reach in much of Europe, as well as with how Faith Goldy's biggest reported pool of Toronto mayoral support last year was among young males (and not just because she was "hawt", though that probably helped)

[King of Kensington]

Popular vote, City of Toronto:

Liberals  681,551  54%  +1.3
Conservatives  291,776 23.1% -4.0
NDP  207,666  16.5%  -2.3

[DistingFlyer]

Popular vote, City of Toronto:

Liberals  681,551  54%  +1.3
Conservatives  291,776  -4.0
NDP  207,666  16.5%  -2.3

Yes, the Liberals saw their vote increase in the GTA as well as Montreal. To wit:

Metro Toronto
Liberals - 25 MPs & 54.0% (+2%)
Conservatives - 23.0% (-3%)
New Democrats - 16.5% (-2%)
Greens - 4.7% (+2%)

GTA (including Metro Toronto)
Liberals - 49 MPs & 49.5% (+0%)
Conservatives - 6 MPs & 30.2% (-4%)
New Democrats - 13.8% (-0%)
Greens - 4.4% (+2%)

Montreal & Laval
Liberals - 20 MPs & 48.7% (+3 MPs & +2%)
Bloquistes - 1 MP & 19.7% (+6%)
New Democrats - 1 MP & 14.2% (-3 MPs & -10%)
Conservatives - 10.1% (-2%)
Greens - 5.6% (+3%)


Additionally, while the Liberal vote declined fairly sharply in what one might call the Greater Vancouver area their number of MPs remained strong:

Liberals - 11 MPs & 33.7% (-3 MPs & -10%)
Conservatives - 6 MPs & 29.8% (+3 MPs & +1%)
New Democrats - 4 MPs & 24.3% (-1 MP & +1%)
Greens - 8.7% (+4%)
Others - 1 MP (Jody Wilson-Raybould)

[King of Kensington]

Looks like the Greens cut significantly into the Liberal vote in BC. 

[DistingFlyer]

Looks like the Greens cut significantly into the Liberal vote in BC. 

Could be. Here's how things looked in the rest of the province:

Conservatives - 11 MPs & 37.8% (+4 MPs & +6%)
New Democrats - 7 MPs & 24.6% (-2 MPs & -4%)
Greens - 2 MPs & 15.9% (+1 MP & +4%)
Liberals - 19.3% (-3 MPs & -8%)


Here's how the rest of Quebec voted:

Bloquistes: 31 MPs & 37.0% (+22 MPs & +16%)
Liberals - 15 MPs & 29.1% (-8 MPs & -3%)
Conservatives - 10 MPs & 18.1% (-2 MPs & -0%)
New Democrats - 9.6% (-12 MPs & -16%)
Greens - 4.1% (+2%)


And here's how the rest of Ontario voted:

Liberals - 30 MPs & 35.5% (-1 MP & -6%)
Conservatives - 30 MPs & 35.2% (+3 MPs & -1%)
New Democrats - 6 MPs & 19.1% (-2 MPs & +1%)
Greens - 7.6% (+4%)

Both big parties dropped in Ontario (the Tories probably because of their provincial counterparts, and the Liberals probably because of themselves); the Liberals fell by 7% in the East & North, and 4% in the West. The Tories fell 2% in the West, held steady in the East & rose 3% in the North. Once final figures are in for the last three Ontario seats I'll put up figures for those regions (they're all in Northern Ontario, and since the preliminary figures all appear to be missing some polling stations the final figures may alter the overall total a little bit as there are only ten ridings in total up there).

[DistingFlyer]

One further item: thirty-two of thirty-four Ministers running for re-election were successful. That's one of the better success rates for a Ministry (in the top third), as well as the best result for a Government that lost seats overall since 1953 (1958, 1974 & 2008 saw fewer losses than this time, but in all three cases the Government was returned with an improved position). The last time an election saw no Ministers defeated at all was 1958.

[DistingFlyer]

I'd spoken earlier about the Prairies vs. the GTA, and how when the Tories bregan to do well in the former they did poorly in the latter.

Lacking maps from the period I want to describe (except ones of 1953-65 that omit the West), I'll have to make do with figures. I'll cover 1921 to 1965:


1921 - GTA (15 MPs)
Conservatives - 12 MPs, 47.9%
Liberals - 2 MPs, 31.7%
Progressives - 1 MPs, 12.4%
Labour - 4.4%

1921 - Prairies (43 MPs)
Progressives - 38 MPs, 54.5%
Liberals - 2 MPs, 16.3%
Labour - 2 MPs, 4.1%
Conservatives - 20.1%


1925 - GTA (16 MPs)
Conservatives - 16 MPs, 67.2%
Liberals - 29.7%
Labour - 0.5%

1925 - Prairies (54 MPs)
Progressives - 22 MPs, 30.2%
Liberals - 20 MPs, 30.1%
Conservatives - 10 MPs, 32.5%
Labour - 2 MPs


1926 - GTA (16 MPs)
Conservatives - 16 MPs, 62.4%
Liberals - 29.0%
Labour - 1.0%

1926 - Prairies (54 MPs)
Liberals - 32 MPs, 42.1%
Progressives - 18 MPs, 20.2%
Labour - 3 MPs, 4.0%
Conservatives - 1 MP, 33.4%


1930 - GTA (16 MPs)
Conservatives - 14 MPs, 61.8%
Liberals - 2 MPs, 37.7%
Labour - 0.3%

1930 - Prairies (54 MPs)
Conservatives - 23 MPs, 39.7%
Liberals - 18 MPs, 39.4%
Progressives - 11 MPs, 14.5%
Labour - 2 MPs, 3.4%


With the Depression having dragged on for nearly six years, three new parties arrive and the Prairies get a big political shakeup:

1935 - GTA (19 MPs)
Conservatives - 12 MPs, 38.1%
Liberals - 7 MPs, 33.9%
CCF - 13.3%
Reconstructionists - 13.3%

1935 - Prairies (55 MPs)
Liberals - 31 MPs, 35.3%
Socreds - 17 MPs, 20.7%
CCF - 4 MPs, 18.4%
Conservatives - 3 MPs, 20.9%
Reconstructionists - 2.6%


1940 - GTA (19 MPs)
Conservatives - 12 MPs, 48.7%
Liberals - 7 MPs, 45.7%
CCF - 4.8%

1940 - Prairies (55 MPs)
Liberals - 34 MPs, 43.1%
Socreds - 10 MPs, 11.6%
CCF - 6 MPs, 21.2%
Conservatives - 3 MPs, 17.7%
Others - 2 (both communist affiliates)


The CCF's 1944 victory in Saskatchewan and their 1943 near-victory in Ontario make themselves felt:

1945 - GTA (19 MPs)
Conservatives - 15 MPs, 43.4%
Liberals - 4 MPs, 34.5%
CCF - 17.1%
Socreds - 0.2%

1945 - Prairies (55 MPs)
CCF - 23 MPs, 32.3%
Liberals - 14 MPs, 30.0%
Socreds - 13 MPs, 13.4%
Conservatives - 5 MPs, 20.7%


The Liberals' big nationwide victory (still their best peacetime result) sees them edge ahead of the Tories in Toronto for the first time, but this doesn't last; Louis Saint-Laurent also presides over the last two Liberal victories on the Prairies:

1949 - GTA (19 MPs)
Liberals - 11 MPs, 40.2%
Conservatives - 7 MPs, 37.2%
CCF - 1 MP, 21.5%

1949 - Prairies (53 MPs)
Liberals - 31 MPs, 41.9%
Socreds - 10 MPs, 12.6%
CCF - 8 MPs, 25.9%
Conservatives - 4 MPs, 17.6%


1953 - GTA (22 MPs)
Conservatives - 11 MPs, 40.4%
Liberals - 10 MPs, 40.1%
CCF - 1 MP, 17.5%
Socreds - 0.2%

1953 - Prairies (48 MPs)
Liberals - 17 MPs, 37.5%
CCF - 14 MPs, 25.3%
Socreds - 11 MPs, 18.1%
Conservatives - 6 MPs, 17.0%


With Prairie boy John Diefenbaker now leading the Tories, the realignment slowly begins:

1957 - GTA (22 MPs)
Conservatives - 21 MPs, 51.5%
Liberals - 1 MP, 29.8%
CCF - 16.8%
Socreds - 1.6%

1957 - Prairies (48 MPs)
CCF - 15 MPs, 21.4%
Conservatives - 14 MPs, 28.6%
Socreds - 13 MPs, 21.3%
Liberals - 6 MPs, 28.2%


At this point, the two lines intersect and the Tories sweep both regions for the first (and last) time since 1917:

1958 - GTA (22 MPs)
Conservatives - 22 MPs, 58.9%
Liberals - 27.0%
CCF - 13.3%
Socreds - 0.4%

1958 - Prairies (48 MPs)
Conservatives - 47 MPs, 56.2%
CCF - 1 MP, 16.9%
Liberals - 18.1%
Socreds - 8.6%


Now things begin to look more like the modern day, as the Tories remain strong on the Prairies but plunge way down in favor of both the Liberals and New Democrats in Toronto:

1962 - GTA (22 MPs)
Liberals - 15 MPs, 38.6%
Conservatives - 4 MPs, 36.8%
New Democrats - 3 MPs, 23.4%
Socreds - 1.1%

1962 - Prairies (48 MPs)
Conservatives - 42 MPs, 44.9%
Liberals - 2 MPs, 24.0%
New Democrats - 2 MPs, 16.1%
Socreds - 2 MPs, 14.7%


1963 - GTA (22 MPs)
Liberals - 19 MPs, 47.7%
New Democrats - 2 MPs, 22.7%
Conservatives - 1 MP. 28.8%
Socreds - 0.6%

1963 - Prairies (48 MPs)
Conservatives - 41 MPs, 47.0%
Liberals - 3 MPs, 26.1%
Socreds - 2 MPs, 13.6%
New Democrats - 2 MPs, 13.1%


1965 - GTA (22 MPs)
Liberals - 17 MPs, 42.9%
New Democrats - 4 MPs, 27.0%
Conservatives - 1 MP, 29.7%
Socreds - 0.1%

1965 - Prairies (48 MPs)
Conservatives - 42 MPs, 45.3%
New Democrats - 3 MPs, 18.2%
Socreds - 2 MPs, 10.9%
Liberals - 1 MP, 25.4%


. . . and you can essentially fast-forward to the present day. The Tories do a little better in the GTA now, and the NDP a little worse, but that's mostly due to the increased population of the areas surrounding Metro Toronto itself (Mississauga, Brampton, Oakville, Markham, etc.), where the Tories tend to do better (both then and now) relative to the actual City. They've sometimes surpassed the Liberals in the years since (1979, 1984, 1988 & 2011), but only when they've won majorities (or near-majorities) nationwide. As for the Prairies, even with the increased urbanization there the Tories' dominance remains. The realignment that took place from the late 1950s to the early 1960s is arguably one of the most significant in our political history, yet one doesn't hear it mentioned that often now.

[EastAnglianLefty]

Six non-Alberta/Sask Conservative ridings had higher vote shares than the top Liberal, NDP, Bloc or Green ridings (albeit five are in Manitoba): Portage-Lisgar (71%), Prince George-Peace River-Northern Rockies (69.9%), Provencher (65.9%), Dauphin-Swan River-Neepawa (64.5%), Brandon-Souris (63.5%), Selkirk-Interlake (62.7%).

5 in Manitoba and one bordering Alberta and with an economy heavily dependent on fossil fuels. So still arguably the same pattern.

[adma]

I find the "counterintuitiveness" of the final Conservative tally interesting--that is, I know about the "wasted vote in the West" arguments; but usually (and contrary to uniform-swing arguments), when the share increases into a vote plurality as it did, it increases more in the lower-tier seats than in the maxed-out strongholds.  Instead, there was no ceiling to how maxed-out the Western vote could get, while Ontario and Quebec basically went flat.  (Maybe the closest hint of what "could have happened" was in the Maritimes, particularly w/the NB seat gains and the Newf/Cape Breton share increases--even if in the latter case, translating those increases into gains proved to be a bridge too far.)

[DistingFlyer]

I find the "counterintuitiveness" of the final Conservative tally interesting--that is, I know about the "wasted vote in the West" arguments; but usually (and contrary to uniform-swing arguments), when the share increases into a vote plurality as it did, it increases more in the lower-tier seats than in the maxed-out strongholds.  Instead, there was no ceiling to how maxed-out the Western vote could get, while Ontario and Quebec basically went flat.  (Maybe the closest hint of what "could have happened" was in the Maritimes, particularly w/the NB seat gains and the Newf/Cape Breton share increases--even if in the latter case, translating those increases into gains proved to be a bridge too far.)

Yes, the biggest Tory swings tended to be in places where they did the least good: either on the Prairies, where they held most of the ridings already, or in ultra-secure Liberal areas in Atlantic Canada like Cape Breton or rural Newfoundland where it would take a huge shift for the ridings to turn over. The Liberals held up rather well in marginals - not only in Ontario but in Atlantic Canada too.

[DistingFlyer]

Earlier someone suggested that maybe Northern Ontario was starting to align itself with the Prairies as opposed to the rest of its own province. Obviously one can't yet say if that's happening, but the results there are rather curious:

Until the Depression, the Conservatives did well in the north, winning that region in every election from 1908 through 1930 (albeit by much smaller margins than they got provincewide). The 1935 election saw a huge Liberal lead, and the Tories lost some seats they have yet to win back.

The CCF pulled into second place in 1945, probably on the coattails of their successes there in 1943 at the provincial level; this didn't last, however, as the Tories surpassed them again in 1949 (though the Liberals still remained way ahead of both - this was by far their best region within Ontario throughout this period). Even the big Tory wins provincewide in 1957 & 1958 couldn't see them beat the Liberals here, and the Liberal lead became very large once again in 1962.

The 1965 election saw the NDP advance strongly, pulling ahead of the Tories into second place; this ranking of parties remained the same (the big Tory victory in 1984 excepted, when they jumped from third to first) until 1993, when the Rae government's unpopularity saw the NDP slip behind the Reformers and just barely ahead of the PCs. The NDP edged back into second place in 1997, but fell behind the Alliance again in 2000.

The Tory reunification in 2003 didn't do them any favors in this region, as the NDP leaped back into a strong second six months later. The 2008 election, which saw a Tory lead provincewide, saw them come second (taking Kenora for the first time since 1917), the NDP win, and the Liberals drop to third here. That order of parties remained the same in 2011.

The 2015 election saw the region revert to its usual form, with the Liberals winning and the Tories dropping to third place. If one wanted to sum up the region's tendencies in a single pithy phrase, it could be something like Northern Ontario still votes today the way the Prairies voted in the 1950s - that is, largely Liberals vs NDP.

This most recent election had the NDP fall to third and the Tories come second (winning Kenora again and coming second in six of eight ridings that they didn't take).

For the Tories to place higher than third here is rather surprising when you consider that they've only done so since the 1960s under the following circumstances: a nationwide (and provincewide) lead, and a very weak NDP at the provincial and federal levels, none of which apply in this case.

Additionally, it's the only region of Ontario that saw a notable increase in Tory support; they rose about 3% (by the most recent tally), while they flatlined in the East, dropped 2% in the West and dropped 4% in the GTA. In fact, the Liberal lead over the Tories in the GTA now exceeds their lead in the North, as does their lead provincewide (something that hasn't happened in a century, if ever).

As I said at the beginning, one can't even come close to saying that there's a long-term shift going on there, but the results are anomalous enough to make me very interested to see what happens in that region next time.