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  Canadian Election 2019
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Author Topic: Canadian Election 2019  (Read 119467 times)
adma
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« Reply #2025 on: October 26, 2019, 09:12:35 pm »


Though young people being young people, I do notice your typical upticks in what might be called the trollish "Bart vote" (wherever there were Communist, Marxist-Leninist, Rhinoceros, Marijuana candidates running) and the more earnest "Lisa vote" (not just NDP/Green, but Animal Alliance and Stop Climate Change).

And perhaps, some might say in a scarier echo/reflection of the far right's young-male social-media outreach, the People's vote is also above par (though never in winning contention; almost like it's all confined to the scary-incel lunch room table)

Could be, though I'd wager that most of their supporters belong with what you call the 'trollish "Bart vote"' than anything else.

Except that the PPC label doesn't have the casual "immediacy" of the Bart-vote exemplars listed above.  It's like you have to be *really* deep into and groomed by a beyond-Bart subreddit/chan/gamer-forum culture to take that option--and it accords with the far-right's current young-male reach in much of Europe, as well as with how Faith Goldy's biggest reported pool of Toronto mayoral support last year was among young males (and not just because she was "hawt", though that probably helped)
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King of Kensington
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« Reply #2026 on: October 26, 2019, 10:27:45 pm »
« Edited: October 28, 2019, 10:35:16 am by King of Kensington »

Popular vote, City of Toronto:

Liberals  681,551  54%  +1.3
Conservatives  291,776 23.1% -4.0
NDP  207,666  16.5%  -2.3
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DistingFlyer
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« Reply #2027 on: October 26, 2019, 10:36:26 pm »

Popular vote, City of Toronto:

Liberals  681,551  54%  +1.3
Conservatives  291,776  -4.0
NDP  207,666  16.5%  -2.3



Yes, the Liberals saw their vote increase in the GTA as well as Montreal. To wit:

Metro Toronto
Liberals - 25 MPs & 54.0% (+2%)
Conservatives - 23.0% (-3%)
New Democrats - 16.5% (-2%)
Greens - 4.7% (+2%)

GTA (including Metro Toronto)
Liberals - 49 MPs & 49.5% (+0%)
Conservatives - 6 MPs & 30.2% (-4%)
New Democrats - 13.8% (-0%)
Greens - 4.4% (+2%)

Montreal & Laval
Liberals - 20 MPs & 48.7% (+3 MPs & +2%)
Bloquistes - 1 MP & 19.7% (+6%)
New Democrats - 1 MP & 14.2% (-3 MPs & -10%)
Conservatives - 10.1% (-2%)
Greens - 5.6% (+3%)


Additionally, while the Liberal vote declined fairly sharply in what one might call the Greater Vancouver area their number of MPs remained strong:

Liberals - 11 MPs & 33.7% (-3 MPs & -10%)
Conservatives - 6 MPs & 29.8% (+3 MPs & +1%)
New Democrats - 4 MPs & 24.3% (-1 MP & +1%)
Greens - 8.7% (+4%)
Others - 1 MP (Jody Wilson-Raybould)
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King of Kensington
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« Reply #2028 on: October 26, 2019, 11:09:41 pm »

Looks like the Greens cut significantly into the Liberal vote in BC. 
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DistingFlyer
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« Reply #2029 on: October 27, 2019, 06:00:20 am »

Looks like the Greens cut significantly into the Liberal vote in BC. 

Could be. Here's how things looked in the rest of the province:

Conservatives - 11 MPs & 37.8% (+4 MPs & +6%)
New Democrats - 7 MPs & 24.6% (-2 MPs & -4%)
Greens - 2 MPs & 15.9% (+1 MP & +4%)
Liberals - 19.3% (-3 MPs & -8%)


Here's how the rest of Quebec voted:

Bloquistes: 31 MPs & 37.0% (+22 MPs & +16%)
Liberals - 15 MPs & 29.1% (-8 MPs & -3%)
Conservatives - 10 MPs & 18.1% (-2 MPs & -0%)
New Democrats - 9.6% (-12 MPs & -16%)
Greens - 4.1% (+2%)


And here's how the rest of Ontario voted:

Liberals - 30 MPs & 35.5% (-1 MP & -6%)
Conservatives - 30 MPs & 35.2% (+3 MPs & -1%)
New Democrats - 6 MPs & 19.1% (-2 MPs & +1%)
Greens - 7.6% (+4%)

Both big parties dropped in Ontario (the Tories probably because of their provincial counterparts, and the Liberals probably because of themselves); the Liberals fell by 7% in the East & North, and 4% in the West. The Tories fell 2% in the West, held steady in the East & rose 3% in the North. Once final figures are in for the last three Ontario seats I'll put up figures for those regions (they're all in Northern Ontario, and since the preliminary figures all appear to be missing some polling stations the final figures may alter the overall total a little bit as there are only ten ridings in total up there).
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DistingFlyer
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« Reply #2030 on: October 27, 2019, 06:38:08 am »

One further item: thirty-two of thirty-four Ministers running for re-election were successful. That's one of the better success rates for a Ministry (in the top third), as well as the best result for a Government that lost seats overall since 1953 (1958, 1974 & 2008 saw fewer losses than this time, but in all three cases the Government was returned with an improved position). The last time an election saw no Ministers defeated at all was 1958.
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DistingFlyer
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« Reply #2031 on: October 27, 2019, 07:35:29 am »
« Edited: October 27, 2019, 07:44:44 am by DistingFlyer »

I'd spoken earlier about the Prairies vs. the GTA, and how when the Tories bregan to do well in the former they did poorly in the latter.

Lacking maps from the period I want to describe (except ones of 1953-65 that omit the West), I'll have to make do with figures. I'll cover 1921 to 1965:


1921 - GTA (15 MPs)
Conservatives - 12 MPs, 47.9%
Liberals - 2 MPs, 31.7%
Progressives - 1 MPs, 12.4%
Labour - 4.4%

1921 - Prairies (43 MPs)
Progressives - 38 MPs, 54.5%
Liberals - 2 MPs, 16.3%
Labour - 2 MPs, 4.1%
Conservatives - 20.1%


1925 - GTA (16 MPs)
Conservatives - 16 MPs, 67.2%
Liberals - 29.7%
Labour - 0.5%

1925 - Prairies (54 MPs)
Progressives - 22 MPs, 30.2%
Liberals - 20 MPs, 30.1%
Conservatives - 10 MPs, 32.5%
Labour - 2 MPs


1926 - GTA (16 MPs)
Conservatives - 16 MPs, 62.4%
Liberals - 29.0%
Labour - 1.0%

1926 - Prairies (54 MPs)
Liberals - 32 MPs, 42.1%
Progressives - 18 MPs, 20.2%
Labour - 3 MPs, 4.0%
Conservatives - 1 MP, 33.4%


1930 - GTA (16 MPs)
Conservatives - 14 MPs, 61.8%
Liberals - 2 MPs, 37.7%
Labour - 0.3%

1930 - Prairies (54 MPs)
Conservatives - 23 MPs, 39.7%
Liberals - 18 MPs, 39.4%
Progressives - 11 MPs, 14.5%
Labour - 2 MPs, 3.4%


With the Depression having dragged on for nearly six years, three new parties arrive and the Prairies get a big political shakeup:

1935 - GTA (19 MPs)
Conservatives - 12 MPs, 38.1%
Liberals - 7 MPs, 33.9%
CCF - 13.3%
Reconstructionists - 13.3%

1935 - Prairies (55 MPs)
Liberals - 31 MPs, 35.3%
Socreds - 17 MPs, 20.7%
CCF - 4 MPs, 18.4%
Conservatives - 3 MPs, 20.9%
Reconstructionists - 2.6%


1940 - GTA (19 MPs)
Conservatives - 12 MPs, 48.7%
Liberals - 7 MPs, 45.7%
CCF - 4.8%

1940 - Prairies (55 MPs)
Liberals - 34 MPs, 43.1%
Socreds - 10 MPs, 11.6%
CCF - 6 MPs, 21.2%
Conservatives - 3 MPs, 17.7%
Others - 2 (both communist affiliates)


The CCF's 1944 victory in Saskatchewan and their 1943 near-victory in Ontario make themselves felt:

1945 - GTA (19 MPs)
Conservatives - 15 MPs, 43.4%
Liberals - 4 MPs, 34.5%
CCF - 17.1%
Socreds - 0.2%

1945 - Prairies (55 MPs)
CCF - 23 MPs, 32.3%
Liberals - 14 MPs, 30.0%
Socreds - 13 MPs, 13.4%
Conservatives - 5 MPs, 20.7%


The Liberals' big nationwide victory (still their best peacetime result) sees them edge ahead of the Tories in Toronto for the first time, but this doesn't last; Louis Saint-Laurent also presides over the last two Liberal victories on the Prairies:

1949 - GTA (19 MPs)
Liberals - 11 MPs, 40.2%
Conservatives - 7 MPs, 37.2%
CCF - 1 MP, 21.5%

1949 - Prairies (53 MPs)
Liberals - 31 MPs, 41.9%
Socreds - 10 MPs, 12.6%
CCF - 8 MPs, 25.9%
Conservatives - 4 MPs, 17.6%


1953 - GTA (22 MPs)
Conservatives - 11 MPs, 40.4%
Liberals - 10 MPs, 40.1%
CCF - 1 MP, 17.5%
Socreds - 0.2%

1953 - Prairies (48 MPs)
Liberals - 17 MPs, 37.5%
CCF - 14 MPs, 25.3%
Socreds - 11 MPs, 18.1%
Conservatives - 6 MPs, 17.0%


With Prairie boy John Diefenbaker now leading the Tories, the realignment slowly begins:

1957 - GTA (22 MPs)
Conservatives - 21 MPs, 51.5%
Liberals - 1 MP, 29.8%
CCF - 16.8%
Socreds - 1.6%

1957 - Prairies (48 MPs)
CCF - 15 MPs, 21.4%
Conservatives - 14 MPs, 28.6%
Socreds - 13 MPs, 21.3%
Liberals - 6 MPs, 28.2%


At this point, the two lines intersect and the Tories sweep both regions for the first (and last) time since 1917:

1958 - GTA (22 MPs)
Conservatives - 22 MPs, 58.9%
Liberals - 27.0%
CCF - 13.3%
Socreds - 0.4%

1958 - Prairies (48 MPs)
Conservatives - 47 MPs, 56.2%
CCF - 1 MP, 16.9%
Liberals - 18.1%
Socreds - 8.6%


Now things begin to look more like the modern day, as the Tories remain strong on the Prairies but plunge way down in favor of both the Liberals and New Democrats in Toronto:

1962 - GTA (22 MPs)
Liberals - 15 MPs, 38.6%
Conservatives - 4 MPs, 36.8%
New Democrats - 3 MPs, 23.4%
Socreds - 1.1%

1962 - Prairies (48 MPs)
Conservatives - 42 MPs, 44.9%
Liberals - 2 MPs, 24.0%
New Democrats - 2 MPs, 16.1%
Socreds - 2 MPs, 14.7%


1963 - GTA (22 MPs)
Liberals - 19 MPs, 47.7%
New Democrats - 2 MPs, 22.7%
Conservatives - 1 MP. 28.8%
Socreds - 0.6%

1963 - Prairies (48 MPs)
Conservatives - 41 MPs, 47.0%
Liberals - 3 MPs, 26.1%
Socreds - 2 MPs, 13.6%
New Democrats - 2 MPs, 13.1%


1965 - GTA (22 MPs)
Liberals - 17 MPs, 42.9%
New Democrats - 4 MPs, 27.0%
Conservatives - 1 MP, 29.7%
Socreds - 0.1%

1965 - Prairies (48 MPs)
Conservatives - 42 MPs, 45.3%
New Democrats - 3 MPs, 18.2%
Socreds - 2 MPs, 10.9%
Liberals - 1 MP, 25.4%


. . . and you can essentially fast-forward to the present day. The Tories do a little better in the GTA now, and the NDP a little worse, but that's mostly due to the increased population of the areas surrounding Metro Toronto itself (Mississauga, Brampton, Oakville, Markham, etc.), where the Tories tend to do better (both then and now) relative to the actual City. They've sometimes surpassed the Liberals in the years since (1979, 1984, 1988 & 2011), but only when they've won majorities (or near-majorities) nationwide. As for the Prairies, even with the increased urbanization there the Tories' dominance remains. The realignment that took place from the late 1950s to the early 1960s is arguably one of the most significant in our political history, yet one doesn't hear it mentioned that often now.
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EastAnglianLefty
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« Reply #2032 on: October 27, 2019, 08:06:08 am »

Six non-Alberta/Sask Conservative ridings had higher vote shares than the top Liberal, NDP, Bloc or Green ridings (albeit five are in Manitoba): Portage-Lisgar (71%), Prince George-Peace River-Northern Rockies (69.9%), Provencher (65.9%), Dauphin-Swan River-Neepawa (64.5%), Brandon-Souris (63.5%), Selkirk-Interlake (62.7%).


5 in Manitoba and one bordering Alberta and with an economy heavily dependent on fossil fuels. So still arguably the same pattern.
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adma
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« Reply #2033 on: October 27, 2019, 08:28:19 am »

I find the "counterintuitiveness" of the final Conservative tally interesting--that is, I know about the "wasted vote in the West" arguments; but usually (and contrary to uniform-swing arguments), when the share increases into a vote plurality as it did, it increases more in the lower-tier seats than in the maxed-out strongholds.  Instead, there was no ceiling to how maxed-out the Western vote could get, while Ontario and Quebec basically went flat.  (Maybe the closest hint of what "could have happened" was in the Maritimes, particularly w/the NB seat gains and the Newf/Cape Breton share increases--even if in the latter case, translating those increases into gains proved to be a bridge too far.)
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DistingFlyer
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« Reply #2034 on: October 27, 2019, 08:32:34 am »

I find the "counterintuitiveness" of the final Conservative tally interesting--that is, I know about the "wasted vote in the West" arguments; but usually (and contrary to uniform-swing arguments), when the share increases into a vote plurality as it did, it increases more in the lower-tier seats than in the maxed-out strongholds.  Instead, there was no ceiling to how maxed-out the Western vote could get, while Ontario and Quebec basically went flat.  (Maybe the closest hint of what "could have happened" was in the Maritimes, particularly w/the NB seat gains and the Newf/Cape Breton share increases--even if in the latter case, translating those increases into gains proved to be a bridge too far.)

Yes, the biggest Tory swings tended to be in places where they did the least good: either on the Prairies, where they held most of the ridings already, or in ultra-secure Liberal areas in Atlantic Canada like Cape Breton or rural Newfoundland where it would take a huge shift for the ridings to turn over. The Liberals held up rather well in marginals - not only in Ontario but in Atlantic Canada too.
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DistingFlyer
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« Reply #2035 on: October 27, 2019, 08:45:28 am »
« Edited: October 27, 2019, 10:17:46 am by DistingFlyer »

Earlier someone suggested that maybe Northern Ontario was starting to align itself with the Prairies as opposed to the rest of its own province. Obviously one can't yet say if that's happening, but the results there are rather curious:

Until the Depression, the Conservatives did well in the north, winning that region in every election from 1908 through 1930 (albeit by much smaller margins than they got provincewide). The 1935 election saw a huge Liberal lead, and the Tories lost some seats they have yet to win back.

The CCF pulled into second place in 1945, probably on the coattails of their successes there in 1943 at the provincial level; this didn't last, however, as the Tories surpassed them again in 1949 (though the Liberals still remained way ahead of both - this was by far their best region within Ontario throughout this period). Even the big Tory wins provincewide in 1957 & 1958 couldn't see them beat the Liberals here, and the Liberal lead became very large once again in 1962.

The 1965 election saw the NDP advance strongly, pulling ahead of the Tories into second place; this ranking of parties remained the same (the big Tory victory in 1984 excepted, when they jumped from third to first) until 1993, when the Rae government's unpopularity saw the NDP slip behind the Reformers and just barely ahead of the PCs. The NDP edged back into second place in 1997, but fell behind the Alliance again in 2000.

The Tory reunification in 2003 didn't do them any favors in this region, as the NDP leaped back into a strong second six months later. The 2008 election, which saw a Tory lead provincewide, saw them come second (taking Kenora for the first time since 1917), the NDP win, and the Liberals drop to third here. That order of parties remained the same in 2011.

The 2015 election saw the region revert to its usual form, with the Liberals winning and the Tories dropping to third place. If one wanted to sum up the region's tendencies in a single pithy phrase, it could be something like Northern Ontario still votes today the way the Prairies voted in the 1950s - that is, largely Liberals vs NDP.

This most recent election had the NDP fall to third and the Tories come second (winning Kenora again and coming second in six of eight ridings that they didn't take).

For the Tories to place higher than third here is rather surprising when you consider that they've only done so since the 1960s under the following circumstances: a nationwide (and provincewide) lead, and a very weak NDP at the provincial and federal levels, none of which apply in this case.

Additionally, it's the only region of Ontario that saw a notable increase in Tory support; they rose about 3% (by the most recent tally), while they flatlined in the East, dropped 2% in the West and dropped 4% in the GTA. In fact, the Liberal lead over the Tories in the GTA now exceeds their lead in the North, as does their lead provincewide (something that hasn't happened in a century, if ever).

As I said at the beginning, one can't even come close to saying that there's a long-term shift going on there, but the results are anomalous enough to make me very interested to see what happens in that region next time.
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MaxQue
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« Reply #2036 on: October 27, 2019, 09:41:16 am »

With all the talk of votes vs seat pluralities, it's interesting how when it comes to Student Vote Canada, the third place party in votes got the most seats, and the party with the most votes was third place in seats.  (And nobody got more than 25.1% of the vote.)
 https://studentvote.ca/canada/results/

Interesting to see it broken down by province; the low Bloc total in Quebec (both votes and ridings) is encouraging.

We have known for a while that separatism is a dead issue among the younger generations, with the exception being the 'radical-on-everything' types that are lockstep with the QS. Those born recently only have memory of the Bloc as a separatist party, so even their movement away on that issue might not help with the youth. There are different battles to be fought, so why bother picking up the banner left by your parents when the Bloc doesn't own your issues the best. Additionally rural Quebec has that rural problem where the youth are heading for the Liberal/NDP cities and not staying in communities more tied to the Bloc.

Totally wrong, there is huge overlap between QS voters and NDP voters. QS voters don't vote Bloc.
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Oryxslayer
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« Reply #2037 on: October 27, 2019, 10:55:33 am »

With all the talk of votes vs seat pluralities, it's interesting how when it comes to Student Vote Canada, the third place party in votes got the most seats, and the party with the most votes was third place in seats.  (And nobody got more than 25.1% of the vote.)
 https://studentvote.ca/canada/results/

Interesting to see it broken down by province; the low Bloc total in Quebec (both votes and ridings) is encouraging.

We have known for a while that separatism is a dead issue among the younger generations, with the exception being the 'radical-on-everything' types that are lockstep with the QS. Those born recently only have memory of the Bloc as a separatist party, so even their movement away on that issue might not help with the youth. There are different battles to be fought, so why bother picking up the banner left by your parents when the Bloc doesn't own your issues the best. Additionally rural Quebec has that rural problem where the youth are heading for the Liberal/NDP cities and not staying in communities more tied to the Bloc.

Totally wrong, there is huge overlap between QS voters and NDP voters. QS voters don't vote Bloc.

Yes, and? I wasn't implying QS voters picked the Bloc, only their political views on that issue align with said position on the separatist-federalist scale. The QS/NDP alignment does get a little weird at times like when the NDP had a separatist nominated this cycle form the QS, despite the official party mantra. I'm the guy who mapped quebec 2018 by poll, I know where the QS is strong and how their strength in Sherbrooke/Plateau/etc correlates with the NDP and visa versa.
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adma
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« Reply #2038 on: October 27, 2019, 11:02:07 am »


As I said at the beginning, one can't even come close to saying that there's a long-term shift going on there, but the results are anomalous enough to make me very interested to see what happens in that region next time.

And perhaps a leapfrog hint of that is in how Renfrew-Nipissing-Pembroke--probably the most "Northern/Rural-Prairie-esque" of the Southern Ontario ridings, demographically and economically--went from being a Liberal holdout in 1984 to a Cheryl Gallant Conservative stronghold in this century.  (Though the NDP's never really been a factor there, though there were hints of that provincially as recently as the 1970s)
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DistingFlyer
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« Reply #2039 on: October 27, 2019, 11:09:20 am »
« Edited: October 27, 2019, 11:14:02 am by DistingFlyer »


As I said at the beginning, one can't even come close to saying that there's a long-term shift going on there, but the results are anomalous enough to make me very interested to see what happens in that region next time.

And perhaps a leapfrog hint of that is in how Renfrew-Nipissing-Pembroke--probably the most "Northern/Rural-Prairie-esque" of the Southern Ontario ridings, demographically and economically--went from being a Liberal holdout in 1984 to a Cheryl Gallant Conservative stronghold in this century.  (Though the NDP's never really been a factor there, though there were hints of that provincially as recently as the 1970s)

Yes, and John Yakabuski was able to do the same thing at the provincial level: he made it the only riding to switch from Liberal to Tory in 2003, and turned it into the safest Conservative seat in the province in 2011 (as well as the safest seat for any party in 2011 & 2018). Personal popularity has a lot to do with both members' successes, I'm sure, but it could also be a hint of something more. Certainly the more populist tone of the post-reunion Tories (and their Alliance predecessors) seemed to do reasonably well in these areas, though curiously the Prairie-based populism of Diefenbaker did not work its charms here six decades ago.
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MaxQue
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« Reply #2040 on: October 27, 2019, 11:26:36 am »

With all the talk of votes vs seat pluralities, it's interesting how when it comes to Student Vote Canada, the third place party in votes got the most seats, and the party with the most votes was third place in seats.  (And nobody got more than 25.1% of the vote.)
 https://studentvote.ca/canada/results/

Interesting to see it broken down by province; the low Bloc total in Quebec (both votes and ridings) is encouraging.

We have known for a while that separatism is a dead issue among the younger generations, with the exception being the 'radical-on-everything' types that are lockstep with the QS. Those born recently only have memory of the Bloc as a separatist party, so even their movement away on that issue might not help with the youth. There are different battles to be fought, so why bother picking up the banner left by your parents when the Bloc doesn't own your issues the best. Additionally rural Quebec has that rural problem where the youth are heading for the Liberal/NDP cities and not staying in communities more tied to the Bloc.

Totally wrong, there is huge overlap between QS voters and NDP voters. QS voters don't vote Bloc.

Yes, and? I wasn't implying QS voters picked the Bloc, only their political views on that issue align with said position on the separatist-federalist scale. The QS/NDP alignment does get a little weird at times like when the NDP had a separatist nominated this cycle form the QS, despite the official party mantra. I'm the guy who mapped quebec 2018 by poll, I know where the QS is strong and how their strength in Sherbrooke/Plateau/etc correlates with the NDP and visa versa.

QS is left-wing first, independentist second.

The NDP recognizes Quebec is able to leave after a 50%+1 referendum. If you are a pro-independence left-winger, it makes sense to say that you want Quebec to be a country, but that will be decided in Quebec City, not Ottawa and that Canada should be improved in the mean time.
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adma
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« Reply #2041 on: October 27, 2019, 11:42:41 am »

With all the talk of votes vs seat pluralities, it's interesting how when it comes to Student Vote Canada, the third place party in votes got the most seats, and the party with the most votes was third place in seats.  (And nobody got more than 25.1% of the vote.)
 https://studentvote.ca/canada/results/

Interesting to see it broken down by province; the low Bloc total in Quebec (both votes and ridings) is encouraging.

We have known for a while that separatism is a dead issue among the younger generations, with the exception being the 'radical-on-everything' types that are lockstep with the QS. Those born recently only have memory of the Bloc as a separatist party, so even their movement away on that issue might not help with the youth. There are different battles to be fought, so why bother picking up the banner left by your parents when the Bloc doesn't own your issues the best. Additionally rural Quebec has that rural problem where the youth are heading for the Liberal/NDP cities and not staying in communities more tied to the Bloc.

Totally wrong, there is huge overlap between QS voters and NDP voters. QS voters don't vote Bloc.

Yes, and? I wasn't implying QS voters picked the Bloc, only their political views on that issue align with said position on the separatist-federalist scale. The QS/NDP alignment does get a little weird at times like when the NDP had a separatist nominated this cycle form the QS, despite the official party mantra. I'm the guy who mapped quebec 2018 by poll, I know where the QS is strong and how their strength in Sherbrooke/Plateau/etc correlates with the NDP and visa versa.

Though keep in mind that voting choices don't necessarily align with views; and also, if hardcore separatism is dead issue with younger voters, so is hardcore federalism.  Remember: younger voters have lived under a PQ government for some portion of their lives, the universe didn't fall down, they operated and were accepted as a natural party of government.  The federalism-vs-separatism battles are old hat, it's all a bunch of aging hippies and stuffed suits to them.  And QS is "post" all of those battles--as is CAQ (or even the present-day Bloc, adjusting to CAQ-centric reality), in its way.

If anything, it's a sort of international urban cosmopolitanism that's defined young voting preferences--QS's youth appeal is founded upon its being fashionably left, not upon its separatist leanings (and even when said leanings are accounted for, they're subsumed within more generic smash-the-state sentiment).  And even the "soft QS" vote can be said to overlap with a certain "Steven Guilbeault Liberal" element--and remember that a large part of Justin's Papineau is represented by QS provincially (which played out in the *NDP* being a strong if distant second, ahead of the Bloc--their strongest showing in a Quebec riding they did not win in 2011)
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adma
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« Reply #2042 on: October 27, 2019, 11:47:33 am »

Yes, and John Yakabuski was able to do the same thing at the provincial level: he made it the only riding to switch from Liberal to Tory in 2003, and turned it into the safest Conservative seat in the province in 2011 (as well as the safest seat for any party in 2011 & 2018). Personal popularity has a lot to do with both members' successes, I'm sure, but it could also be a hint of something more. Certainly the more populist tone of the post-reunion Tories (and their Alliance predecessors) seemed to do reasonably well in these areas, though curiously the Prairie-based populism of Diefenbaker did not work its charms here six decades ago.

When it comes to six decades ago, I wonder whether Lester Pearson's regional representation played a factor.  (Also helping the RNP Libs of yore was a heavy Catholic undercurrent, not just Franco- but also Irish and Polish--a demographic that's tended to swing rightward in recent times.)
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King of Kensington
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« Reply #2043 on: October 27, 2019, 01:08:38 pm »

Ottawa

Liberals  261,475  47.5%
Conservatives  155,132  28.2%
NDP  90,587  16.4%

Winnipeg

Liberals  123,168  35.9%
Conservatives  116,051  33.8%
NDP  80,734  23.5%

Edmonton and environs

Conservatives  347,157  57.9%
Liberals  115,463  19.3% 
NDP  109,515  18.3%

Calgary

Conservatives  404,262  65.9%
Liberals  110,769  18%
NDP  60,630  9.9%
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King of Kensington
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« Reply #2044 on: October 27, 2019, 04:57:20 pm »

Fairly similar levels of Conservative support in GTA, Metro Van, Ottawa, Winnipeg.
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Hatman 🍁
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« Reply #2045 on: October 27, 2019, 05:05:26 pm »


As I said at the beginning, one can't even come close to saying that there's a long-term shift going on there, but the results are anomalous enough to make me very interested to see what happens in that region next time.

And perhaps a leapfrog hint of that is in how Renfrew-Nipissing-Pembroke--probably the most "Northern/Rural-Prairie-esque" of the Southern Ontario ridings, demographically and economically--went from being a Liberal holdout in 1984 to a Cheryl Gallant Conservative stronghold in this century.  (Though the NDP's never really been a factor there, though there were hints of that provincially as recently as the 1970s)

Yes, and John Yakabuski was able to do the same thing at the provincial level: he made it the only riding to switch from Liberal to Tory in 2003, and turned it into the safest Conservative seat in the province in 2011 (as well as the safest seat for any party in 2011 & 2018). Personal popularity has a lot to do with both members' successes, I'm sure, but it could also be a hint of something more. Certainly the more populist tone of the post-reunion Tories (and their Alliance predecessors) seemed to do reasonably well in these areas, though curiously the Prairie-based populism of Diefenbaker did not work its charms here six decades ago.

On the contrary. Cheryl Gallant is not popular at all in her riding- or at least not as popular as her vote share would indicate.
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Hatman 🍁
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« Reply #2046 on: October 27, 2019, 05:10:21 pm »

Ottawa

Liberals  261,475  47.5%
Conservatives  155,132  28.2%
NDP  90,587  16.4%


16.4% is usually good enough for the NDP to win Ottawa Centre (our polling had the NDP even higher in Ottawa, which is why I went out on a limb and said they'd win the riding), but this time they didn't come close. However, the NDP increased their vote share in every other riding in Ottawa, mirroring their good showing in the provincial election. I'm not sure why this is. I know in my riding (Ottawa South) we had a very good candidate, in fact it was the first time ever the NDP beat their national vote share in this riding.
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King of Kensington
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« Reply #2047 on: October 27, 2019, 05:19:22 pm »

Since 2015 the NoVA-ization of Ottawa is very much evident.
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Oryxslayer
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« Reply #2048 on: October 27, 2019, 06:00:16 pm »

Since 2015 the NoVA-ization of Ottawa is very much evident.

It's interesting then that the Tories were able to hold Carleton, when they lost the other 'bedrooming communities' of Milton and Kitchener-Conestoga, with Milton being the notable target of the  three. It's also interesting with the context of the CAQ victories in the Outaouais last year.
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King of Kensington
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« Reply #2049 on: October 28, 2019, 01:01:40 am »

Since 2015, the Conservative vote share has been lower in Ottawa than in the GTA.
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