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DistingFlyer
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« Reply #2000 on: October 26, 2019, 04:12:08 PM »

I figured percentage margins haven't been broken this year, but some of those rural Alberta seats are really pushing it and that's with the PPC shaving a 2-3% off the Conservative margins.

I could be wrong, but I'm fairly certain the overall Conservative vote percentages in AB and SK are records (at least for the modern era). SK hasn't historically been strongly Conservative, but getting over 69% in AB even exceeds Mulroney's win in 1984.

The vote share in Alberta is an all-time record, while the Saskatchewan result is bested only by 1917 (when the Tories got 74%). The Tory vote of 64% on the Prairies is also a record since then (when they got 72%).

The 1917 election set a number of records - nationwide vote (57%), vote share in Ontario (62%), vote share in Quebec (73%), vote share in the West (71%) and even vote share in Toronto (72%), not to mention record constituency shares - that will probably never be broken.

The 85.5% racked up in Battle River – Crowfoot isn't an all-time record, nor even a record since 1917, but it is the best Conservative result since the time of Borden (in both percentage of the vote and percentage majority).
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politicallefty
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« Reply #2001 on: October 26, 2019, 04:45:46 PM »

Looking over some of the more apparently anomalous results, what's with the big Conservative wins in Thornhill and Richmond Centre? Obviously very different reasons I'm assuming apart from perhaps incumbent popularity. I'm assuming Richmond Centre has a fairly large Chinese population and I know the Tories have historically done well with Chinese voters, but I'm sure there have to be a number of other heavily Chinese seats that didn't go their way. Also, the lone NDP seat in Montreal was held by a pretty substantial margin as well.
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DistingFlyer
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« Reply #2002 on: October 26, 2019, 04:53:38 PM »

Looking over some of the more apparently anomalous results, what's with the big Conservative wins in Thornhill and Richmond Centre? Obviously very different reasons I'm assuming apart from perhaps incumbent popularity. I'm assuming Richmond Centre has a fairly large Chinese population and I know the Tories have historically done well with Chinese voters, but I'm sure there have to be a number of other heavily Chinese seats that didn't go their way. Also, the lone NDP seat in Montreal was held by a pretty substantial margin as well.

Conservative success (since 2008) in Thornhill has generally been attributed to the big Jewish population there (the largest of any riding), given that that demographic has been very good to the Tories for the last decade. It also helps to explain the strong Tory showing in Mount Royal four years ago.
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King of Kensington
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« Reply #2003 on: October 26, 2019, 04:59:45 PM »

Quote
Robert Brym, a University of Toronto sociologist and co-author the 2018 Survey of Jews in Canada, said he’s not surprised that Canadian Jews appear to have tilted toward the Liberals.

The survey “suggested that a Liberal bias exists in Canada’s Jewish community, not just in term of party preference, but in terms of attitudes toward income redistribution, same-sex relationships and Israeli settlement policy,” Brym told The CJN.

The Orthodox community, he went on, tends to lean more toward the Conservatives, in terms of party preference and attitudes, so “it is not a shock that Thornhill, with its substantial Orthodox population, tilted Conservative,” he added.

https://www.cjnews.com/news/canada/how-the-jewish-vote-will-shape-canadas-43rd-parliament
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DistingFlyer
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« Reply #2004 on: October 26, 2019, 05:17:24 PM »

Twenty-three ridings left to make official declarations now; curiously, the PM's is still among them.

Here are the safest seats for each party this time (biggest vote & biggest majority):

Largest Margin of Victory:

Cons - Damien Kurek wins Battle River – Crowfoot by 50124 (80.4%)
Lib - Patricia Lattanzio wins Saint-Leonard – Saint-Michel by 22443 (49.4%)
BQ - Louis Plamondon wins Becanour – Nicolet – Saurel by 20321 (38.8%)
NDP - Jenny Kwan wins Vancouver East by 19151 (34.4%)


Largest Share of the Vote:

Cons - Damien Kurek wins Battle River – Crowfoot with 85.5% of the vote
Lib - Gary Anandasangree wins Scarborough – Rouge Park with 62.2% of the vote
BQ - Gabriel Ste.-Marie wins Joliette with 58.2% of the vote
NDP - Jenny Kwan wins Vancouver East with 52.6% of the vote


The safest Liberal seat in terms of margin ranks below thirty-three Tory ridings; the safest in terms of vote share ranks below thirty-six. I can't recall such an imbalance in the Tories' favor before (though one has seen such avalanches in the other direction during the Liberals' heyday in Quebec).

Mr. Plamondon is not only the longest-serving Bloc member (he was one of the original founders back in 1990), but is also the longest-serving current MP, having first been elected for Richelieu in 1984.

Vancouver East, along with northern Winnipeg, ranks among the most consistently loyal NDP (& CCF & Labour before that) areas. Ms. Kwan also has the distinction of being one of only two NDP MLAs to survive the big provincial defeat of 2001, when she also represented an eastern Vancouver riding.
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adma
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« Reply #2005 on: October 26, 2019, 05:30:11 PM »

Globally it appears that populist or right-leaning parties have gained ground in rural areas, while more liberal, centrist, or left-wing parties have lost ground in rural areas while making gains in urban areas. However in Canada the Liberals who epitomize liberalism and centrism have held strongly onto rural areas of Atlantic Canada, while completely being removed from the picture in the rural prairies. This is not the first time this has happened I believe, but what drives this?

For example if you hop over the border to Maine or even Upstate New York we saw huge swing to Trump in 2016. Why aren't these trends playing out in Canada?

More of a "Celtic Fringe" dynamic in the Maritimes.  Even the provincial Tories tend to be more Ruth Davidson-like.
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King of Kensington
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« Reply #2006 on: October 26, 2019, 05:33:57 PM »

Six non-Alberta/Sask Conservative ridings had higher vote shares than the top Liberal, NDP, Bloc or Green ridings (albeit five are in Manitoba): Portage-Lisgar (71%), Prince George-Peace River-Northern Rockies (69.9%), Provencher (65.9%), Dauphin-Swan River-Neepawa (64.5%), Brandon-Souris (63.5%), Selkirk-Interlake (62.7%).

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DistingFlyer
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« Reply #2007 on: October 26, 2019, 05:34:17 PM »

Yellowhead has finally reported its official results (twenty left now). No other riding is remotely likely to post a majority of forty thousand or more now, so here's the updated list:

52544 - Mike Lake (Cons) in Edmonton – Wetaskiwin (2019)
51389 - Maurizio Bevilacqua (Lib) in York North (1993)
50124 - Damien Kurek (Cons) in Battle River – Crowfoot (2019)
50016 - John Barlow (Cons) in Foothills (2019)
49970 - Tom Kmiec (Cons) in Calgary Shepard (2019)
49819 - Earl Dreeshen (Cons) in Red Deer – Mountain View (2019)
47831 - Blaine Calkins (Cons) in Red Deer – Lacombe (2019)

47763 - Bobbie Sparrow (PC) in Calgary South (1984)
47079 - Blake Richards (Cons) in Banff – Airdrie (2019)
46953 - Chris Warkentin (Cons) in Grande Prairie – Mackenzie (2019)
46295 - Dane Lloyd (Cons) in Sturgeon River – Parkland (2019)
44733 - Garnett Genuis (Cons) in Sherwood Park – Fort Saskatchewan (2019)
44586 - Shannon Stubbs (Cons) in Lakeland (2019)
43106 - Martin Shields (Cons) in Bow River (2019)
43052 - Stephanie Kusie (Cons) in Calgary Midnapore (2019)

42928 - Benoit Sauvageau (BQ) in Terrebonne (1993)
42066 - Gerald Soroka (Cons) in Yellowhead (2019)
42047 - Kevin Sorenson (Cons) in Battle River – Crowfoot (2015)
41691 - Jason Kenney (Cons) in Calgary Southeast (2011)

40480 - Monique Begin (Lib) in Saint-Leonard – Anjou (1979)
40189 - Don Boudria (Lib) in Glengarry – Prescott – Russell (1993)
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adma
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« Reply #2008 on: October 26, 2019, 05:34:58 PM »


I'm sort of surprised I missed Edmonton-Wetaskiwin, either a larger electorate or just significantly higher turnout (I'm assuming the latter as I'm assuming it's a more suburban riding).

The population went up from 110,000 in 2011 to nearly 160,000 in 2016.  A beneficiary of boomburbia, much like Vaughan in 1993.
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King of Kensington
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« Reply #2009 on: October 26, 2019, 05:40:11 PM »

Two Saskatchewan ridings crossed the 80% threshold:  Souris-Moose Mountain (84.4%) and Cypress Hills-Grasslands (81.1%).  Hard to believe the Liberals (!) eked out a victory in the former in 1993 but the riding after that became a Reform/Alliance/Con stronghold (though Grant Devine's indy run made things interesting in 2004).
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adma
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« Reply #2010 on: October 26, 2019, 06:00:17 PM »

With all the talk of votes vs seat pluralities, it's interesting how when it comes to Student Vote Canada, the third place party in votes got the most seats, and the party with the most votes was third place in seats.  (And nobody got more than 25.1% of the vote.)
 https://studentvote.ca/canada/results/
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DistingFlyer
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« Reply #2011 on: October 26, 2019, 06:01:57 PM »

With all the talk of votes vs seat pluralities, it's interesting how when it comes to Student Vote Canada, the third place party in votes got the most seats, and the party with the most votes was third place in seats.  (And nobody got more than 25.1% of the vote.)
 https://studentvote.ca/canada/results/

Interesting to see it broken down by province; the low Bloc total in Quebec (both votes and ridings) is encouraging.
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Oryxslayer
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« Reply #2012 on: October 26, 2019, 06:49:32 PM »

With all the talk of votes vs seat pluralities, it's interesting how when it comes to Student Vote Canada, the third place party in votes got the most seats, and the party with the most votes was third place in seats.  (And nobody got more than 25.1% of the vote.)
 https://studentvote.ca/canada/results/

Interesting to see it broken down by province; the low Bloc total in Quebec (both votes and ridings) is encouraging.

We have known for a while that separatism is a dead issue among the younger generations, with the exception being the 'radical-on-everything' types that are lockstep with the QS. Those born recently only have memory of the Bloc as a separatist party, so even their movement away on that issue might not help with the youth. There are different battles to be fought, so why bother picking up the banner left by your parents when the Bloc doesn't own your issues the best. Additionally rural Quebec has that rural problem where the youth are heading for the Liberal/NDP cities and not staying in communities more tied to the Bloc.
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DistingFlyer
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« Reply #2013 on: October 26, 2019, 06:52:08 PM »

With all the talk of votes vs seat pluralities, it's interesting how when it comes to Student Vote Canada, the third place party in votes got the most seats, and the party with the most votes was third place in seats.  (And nobody got more than 25.1% of the vote.)
 https://studentvote.ca/canada/results/

Interesting to see it broken down by province; the low Bloc total in Quebec (both votes and ridings) is encouraging.

We have known for a while that separatism is a dead issue among the younger generations, with the exception being the 'radical-on-everything' types that are lockstep with the QS. Those born recently only have memory of the Bloc as a separatist party, so even their movement away on that issue might not help with the youth. There are different battles to be fought, so why bother picking up the banner left by your parents when the Bloc doesn't own your issues the best. Additionally rural Quebec has that rural problem where the youth are heading for the Liberal/NDP cities and not staying in communities more tied to the Bloc.

Agreed on all points - just having same confirmed by the figures was very nice to see.
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Gass3268
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« Reply #2014 on: October 26, 2019, 07:10:18 PM »


I don't think you can say that after 2016 and 2018.

Tulsa maybe?
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DistingFlyer
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« Reply #2015 on: October 26, 2019, 07:28:06 PM »
« Edited: November 08, 2019, 11:13:12 AM by DistingFlyer »

Here's a breakdown of ridings by party & marginality. For the purposes of this table, 'Safe' means a margin of 25% or more, 'Marginal' means winning by under 10%, and 'Moderate' is between the two.



Overall, the distribution of ridings within the three categories isn't much different from usual, though within parties (specifically government vs. opposition) we see some notable differences.

Firstly, just over a quarter of Liberal ridings were won by 25% or more - the lowest share for a Liberal government in the last century, and the lowest for any Government since 1962. Conversely, about 45% of Tory ridings were won by such margins - the highest share for them when they haven't won power in the last century, and the highest for a Liberal or Tory Official Opposition (the 1993 Bloc & 2000 Alliance had more) since 1979 (coincidentally, the last time the Liberals lost while still dominating Quebec).

The comparison between this week's Tory dominance of the Prairies (particularly Alberta & Saskatchewan) doesn't stop there if you look at the number of ridings won by 50% or more ('Ultra-Safe'): thirty-two this time, all by Tories (once more, say it with me now: the most in a century). The Liberals exceeded this number in 1980 (the last time they dominated Quebec, with 68% of the vote), and nearly matched it in 1921 & 1979 (albeit in a smaller Commons). The lack of any Liberal margins above this threshold is also a first for a winning party.
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adma
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« Reply #2016 on: October 26, 2019, 08:31:58 PM »

With all the talk of votes vs seat pluralities, it's interesting how when it comes to Student Vote Canada, the third place party in votes got the most seats, and the party with the most votes was third place in seats.  (And nobody got more than 25.1% of the vote.)
 https://studentvote.ca/canada/results/

Interesting to see it broken down by province; the low Bloc total in Quebec (both votes and ridings) is encouraging.

We have known for a while that separatism is a dead issue among the younger generations, with the exception being the 'radical-on-everything' types that are lockstep with the QS. Those born recently only have memory of the Bloc as a separatist party, so even their movement away on that issue might not help with the youth. There are different battles to be fought, so why bother picking up the banner left by your parents when the Bloc doesn't own your issues the best. Additionally rural Quebec has that rural problem where the youth are heading for the Liberal/NDP cities and not staying in communities more tied to the Bloc.

Agreed on all points - just having same confirmed by the figures was very nice to see.

Though young people being young people, I do notice your typical upticks in what might be called the trollish "Bart vote" (wherever there were Communist, Marxist-Leninist, Rhinoceros, Marijuana candidates running) and the more earnest "Lisa vote" (not just NDP/Green, but Animal Alliance and Stop Climate Change).

And perhaps, some might say in a scarier echo/reflection of the far right's young-male social-media outreach, the People's vote is also above par (though never in winning contention; almost like it's all confined to the scary-incel lunch room table)
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cinyc
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« Reply #2017 on: October 26, 2019, 08:34:52 PM »


I don't think you can say that after 2016 and 2018.

Tulsa maybe?

I meant more culturally than electorally - a city that's home to a lot of oil company HQ and cowboy boot swagger.
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DistingFlyer
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« Reply #2018 on: October 26, 2019, 08:36:59 PM »

With all the talk of votes vs seat pluralities, it's interesting how when it comes to Student Vote Canada, the third place party in votes got the most seats, and the party with the most votes was third place in seats.  (And nobody got more than 25.1% of the vote.)
 https://studentvote.ca/canada/results/

Interesting to see it broken down by province; the low Bloc total in Quebec (both votes and ridings) is encouraging.

We have known for a while that separatism is a dead issue among the younger generations, with the exception being the 'radical-on-everything' types that are lockstep with the QS. Those born recently only have memory of the Bloc as a separatist party, so even their movement away on that issue might not help with the youth. There are different battles to be fought, so why bother picking up the banner left by your parents when the Bloc doesn't own your issues the best. Additionally rural Quebec has that rural problem where the youth are heading for the Liberal/NDP cities and not staying in communities more tied to the Bloc.

Agreed on all points - just having same confirmed by the figures was very nice to see.

Though young people being young people, I do notice your typical upticks in what might be called the trollish "Bart vote" (wherever there were Communist, Marxist-Leninist, Rhinoceros, Marijuana candidates running) and the more earnest "Lisa vote" (not just NDP/Green, but Animal Alliance and Stop Climate Change).

And perhaps, some might say in a scarier echo/reflection of the far right's young-male social-media outreach, the People's vote is also above par (though never in winning contention; almost like it's all confined to the scary-incel lunch room table)

Could be, though I'd wager that most of their supporters belong with what you call the 'trollish "Bart vote"' than anything else.
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DistingFlyer
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« Reply #2019 on: October 26, 2019, 09:06:30 PM »
« Edited: October 26, 2019, 10:03:25 PM by DistingFlyer »

Here's a further breakdown by party of the average majority & average vote share of winners this time:

Liberal
Average Margin (%): 18.0% (lowest for a winning party since 1962)
Average Margin (votes): 9315 (lowest for a winning party since 2004)
Largest Margin (%): 49.4% in Saint-L้onard – Saint-Michel (lowest for a winning party since 1957)
Largest Margin (votes): 25539 in Lac-Saint-Louis (lowest for a winning party since 1962)
Average Vote: 46.6% (lowest for a winning party since 1962)
Largest Vote (%): 62.2% in Scarborough – Rouge Park (lowest ever for a winning party)
Candidates with >50% of the Vote: 54 (34% of MPs)

Conservative
Average Margin (%): 31.1% (highest for Conservatives since at least 1917, and highest for anyone since 1980)
Average Margin (votes): 17518 (highest ever)
Largest Margin (%): 80.4% in Battle River – Crowfoot (highest for Conservatives since 1917, highest for a losing party since 1917, & highest for anyone since 1968)
Largest Margin (votes): 52544 in Edmonton – Wetaskiwin (highest ever)
Average Vote: 54.8% (highest for small-c conservatives since Alliance in 2000, & capital-c Conservatives since 1958; highest for anyone since 2004)
Largest Vote: 85.5% in Battle River – Crowfoot (highest for Conservatives since 1917, highest for a losing party since 1957, & highest for anyone since 1968)
Candidates with >50% of the Vote: 57 (47% of MPs)

New Democratic
Average Margin (%): 12.7% (better than 2015, but less than 2006-2011)
Average Margin (votes): 6079 (see above remarks)
Largest Margin (%): 34.4% in Vancouver East (see above remarks again)
Largest Margin (votes): 19151 in Vancouver East (better than 2015, but less than 2008-2011)
Average Vote: 41.1% (better than 2015, but less than 2000-2011)
Largest Vote: 52.6% in Vancouver East (see above remarks)
Candidates with >50% of the Vote: 1 (4% of MPs)

Bloc
Average Margin (%): 16.9% (much better than 2011-2015, but less than 2004-2008)
Average Margin (votes): 9443 (see above remarks)
Largest Margin (%): 38.8% in B้canour – Nicolet – Saurel (much better than 2011-2015, but less than 1993-2008)
Largest Margin (votes): 20595 in Joliette (better than 2011-2015, but less than 2004-2008)
Average Vote: 45.1% (better than 2011-2015, but less than 1993-2008)
Largest Vote: 58.2% in Joliette (better than 2008-2015, but less than 1993-2006)
Candidates with >50% of the Vote: 11 (34% of MPs)


Overall
Average Margin (%): 22.1% (highest since 2008)
Average Margin (votes): 12015 (highest since 1993)
Largest Margin (%): 80.4% in Battle River – Crowfoot (highest since 1968)
Largest Margin (votes): 52544 in Edmonton – Wetaskiwin (highest ever)
Average Vote: 48.9% (higher than 2015, but lower than 2011)
Largest Vote: 85.5% in Battle River – Crowfoot (highest since 1968)
Candidates with >50% of the Vote: 123 (36% of MPs) (lowest as a percentage of the House since 1997; 2000 was the last time a majority of MPs were elected with a majority of the vote)
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adma
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« Reply #2020 on: October 26, 2019, 09:12:35 PM »


Though young people being young people, I do notice your typical upticks in what might be called the trollish "Bart vote" (wherever there were Communist, Marxist-Leninist, Rhinoceros, Marijuana candidates running) and the more earnest "Lisa vote" (not just NDP/Green, but Animal Alliance and Stop Climate Change).

And perhaps, some might say in a scarier echo/reflection of the far right's young-male social-media outreach, the People's vote is also above par (though never in winning contention; almost like it's all confined to the scary-incel lunch room table)

Could be, though I'd wager that most of their supporters belong with what you call the 'trollish "Bart vote"' than anything else.

Except that the PPC label doesn't have the casual "immediacy" of the Bart-vote exemplars listed above.  It's like you have to be *really* deep into and groomed by a beyond-Bart subreddit/chan/gamer-forum culture to take that option--and it accords with the far-right's current young-male reach in much of Europe, as well as with how Faith Goldy's biggest reported pool of Toronto mayoral support last year was among young males (and not just because she was "hawt", though that probably helped)
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King of Kensington
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« Reply #2021 on: October 26, 2019, 10:27:45 PM »
« Edited: October 28, 2019, 10:35:16 AM by King of Kensington »

Popular vote, City of Toronto:

Liberals  681,551  54%  +1.3
Conservatives  291,776 23.1% -4.0
NDP  207,666  16.5%  -2.3
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DistingFlyer
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« Reply #2022 on: October 26, 2019, 10:36:26 PM »

Popular vote, City of Toronto:

Liberals  681,551  54%  +1.3
Conservatives  291,776  -4.0
NDP  207,666  16.5%  -2.3



Yes, the Liberals saw their vote increase in the GTA as well as Montreal. To wit:

Metro Toronto
Liberals - 25 MPs & 54.0% (+2%)
Conservatives - 23.0% (-3%)
New Democrats - 16.5% (-2%)
Greens - 4.7% (+2%)

GTA (including Metro Toronto)
Liberals - 49 MPs & 49.5% (+0%)
Conservatives - 6 MPs & 30.2% (-4%)
New Democrats - 13.8% (-0%)
Greens - 4.4% (+2%)

Montreal & Laval
Liberals - 20 MPs & 48.7% (+3 MPs & +2%)
Bloquistes - 1 MP & 19.7% (+6%)
New Democrats - 1 MP & 14.2% (-3 MPs & -10%)
Conservatives - 10.1% (-2%)
Greens - 5.6% (+3%)


Additionally, while the Liberal vote declined fairly sharply in what one might call the Greater Vancouver area their number of MPs remained strong:

Liberals - 11 MPs & 33.7% (-3 MPs & -10%)
Conservatives - 6 MPs & 29.8% (+3 MPs & +1%)
New Democrats - 4 MPs & 24.3% (-1 MP & +1%)
Greens - 8.7% (+4%)
Others - 1 MP (Jody Wilson-Raybould)
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King of Kensington
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« Reply #2023 on: October 26, 2019, 11:09:41 PM »

Looks like the Greens cut significantly into the Liberal vote in BC. 
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DistingFlyer
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« Reply #2024 on: October 27, 2019, 06:00:20 AM »

Looks like the Greens cut significantly into the Liberal vote in BC. 

Could be. Here's how things looked in the rest of the province:

Conservatives - 11 MPs & 37.8% (+4 MPs & +6%)
New Democrats - 7 MPs & 24.6% (-2 MPs & -4%)
Greens - 2 MPs & 15.9% (+1 MP & +4%)
Liberals - 19.3% (-3 MPs & -8%)


Here's how the rest of Quebec voted:

Bloquistes: 31 MPs & 37.0% (+22 MPs & +16%)
Liberals - 15 MPs & 29.1% (-8 MPs & -3%)
Conservatives - 10 MPs & 18.1% (-2 MPs & -0%)
New Democrats - 9.6% (-12 MPs & -16%)
Greens - 4.1% (+2%)


And here's how the rest of Ontario voted:

Liberals - 30 MPs & 35.5% (-1 MP & -6%)
Conservatives - 30 MPs & 35.2% (+3 MPs & -1%)
New Democrats - 6 MPs & 19.1% (-2 MPs & +1%)
Greens - 7.6% (+4%)

Both big parties dropped in Ontario (the Tories probably because of their provincial counterparts, and the Liberals probably because of themselves); the Liberals fell by 7% in the East & North, and 4% in the West. The Tories fell 2% in the West, held steady in the East & rose 3% in the North. Once final figures are in for the last three Ontario seats I'll put up figures for those regions (they're all in Northern Ontario, and since the preliminary figures all appear to be missing some polling stations the final figures may alter the overall total a little bit as there are only ten ridings in total up there).
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