Canadian Election 2019

[vileplume]

I honestly am very worried that those urban Toronto ridings like Danforth/PHP/Davenport might be becoming solid Liberal instead of ridings we have a shot in. We completely and utterly tanked in those ridings, even with strong candidates.

Well Davenport was very close and actually had the tiniest of swings to the NDP (Liberal margin went down from 2.9% to 2.8%). The others were indeed poor for the NDP though: Toronto-Danforth 14.4% Liberal margin, up from 2.2% and Parkdale-High Park 16.8% Liberal margin, up from 1.8%.

The Toronto seat the Tories were closest in was Willowdale (12.9% Liberal margin, down from 16.4%) followed by Scarborough-Agincourt (13.1% Liberal margin, down from 13.9%) and then York Centre (13.7% Liberal margin, up from 2.9%).

[adma]

What *I* find depressing is how the Cons just keep getting more stratospheric in the West, i.e. all the 75%+ and even 80%+  mandates with opposition all in single digits--and really, that should be depressing to *them*, too, in a dumbed-down "why bother having elections?" way...

Between that and a few other things, I'm starting to think that for the health of the Canadian polity (if not necessarily the party) it would be a good idea for the NDP to have a Westerner as leader for a while.

Similarly, the Tories probably should put a non-westerner in charge at some point

Had Charlie Angus won the NDP leadership, he'd probably have gone a good way t/w that end.

But really; is there any end in sight?  These Western Con seats are looking like cartoons of electoral democracy.  They're...electoral swamps, like provincial Liberal seats in Anglo Montreal or "urban" Dem congressional districts in the US.  That.  Is.  Not.  Healthy.  

I mean, I might be fine with the Cons getting 2/3 of the vote in such ridings--but 4/5 or 5/6, sheesh.  *No wonder* this election's been followed by rekindled talk of Western separation...

[adma]

I'm not saying the left wing would take all of them, that's why I labeled many tossup, but like there is no doubt vote splitting cost the left wing like a couple dozen seats ish.

***So.  Freaking.  What.***  Such is non-binary FPTP.  You win some, you lose some.

And y'know; whatever one's partisanship, that's what makes Canadian elections and election results so much more *interesting* than when it's pared down to a strict US-style binary.  Like, take a Lib-NDP marginal race like Davenport; if it were the US, the seat would be 80-90% Democratic.  *Bo-ring*...

[adma]

I'm going to be contrarian, and suggest that this is a very good result for the NDP in that it will be a great opportunity for them.

The result is very similar to Jack's first election in 2004. 4th place, 16% of the vote, Liberal-led minority government. The big difference was the gain in seats, but they only won a paltry 19 seats. Another difference was that the NDP didn't quite hold the balance of power. But, now they do. The NDP has more power now than they did in 2011 when they were opposition.

The minority governments of the 2000s were great for the NDP, and ultimately led to the Orange crush in 2011. The same could happen now.

Not too long ago, the NDP were poised for a single digit election night, but Jagmeet pulled them out from that. Sure, it fell rather short from what we hoped, but it's still a relief. Jagmeet is a great campaigner, he's not going anywhere.

I agree here; even if it was a comedown from Jagmeetmania's hopes as well as 2015's raw numbers, Jagmeet comes out of this in a *lot* better shape than Mulcair in 2015.

And if it's a *meh* result like 2015, it's coming from the opposite direction--for Mulcair, it was a comedown from being on the brink of victory; for Jagmeet, it was a come-*up* for a party that seemed, a month or two ago, poised for a rock-bottom Audrey '93 reprise.  And if anything, the final result was vestigially pressed down by those recently-prevailing circumstances; that is, the NDP as a broke and sick party--but even if Jagmeetmania was too little too late and still a little too fairy-dustish, it finally blazed a trail away from broke-sickdom...

[adma]

Bloc got a swing towards them in 77 of the 78 Quebec ridings.

And -5.5 in Laurier--Ste-Marie.

Of course, that was with Gilles Duceppe running in 2015--but they were even behind the NDP in *2019*.

Essentially, seats like LSM, Hochelaga, and Quebec which once would have been central to the PQ/BQ urban-social-democratic base are increasingly defined by a "millennial cosmopolitanism" that's more inclined t/w the Lib-NDP-Green-QS realm.  And if they're out of Bloc reach today, it's for roughly the same reasons why, provincially, they're out of CAQ reach.  Today's Bloc has better fish to fry elsewhere.

[adma]

The Toronto seat the Tories were closest in was Willowdale (12.9% Liberal margin, down from 16.4%) followed by Scarborough-Agincourt (13.1% Liberal margin, down from 13.9%) and then York Centre (13.7% Liberal margin, up from 2.9%).

Willowdale is weird--I suppose it's candidate-related; otherwise, it's the kind of seat I'd imagine swinging increasingly *leftward* with all the North York Centre condo asparagus...

[Filuwaúrdjan]

But really; is there any end in sight?  These Western Con seats are looking like cartoons of electoral democracy.  They're...electoral swamps, like provincial Liberal seats in Anglo Montreal or "urban" Dem congressional districts in the US.  That.  Is.  Not.  Healthy.  

I mean, I might be fine with the Cons getting 2/3 of the vote in such ridings--but 4/5 or 5/6, sheesh.  *No wonder* this election's been followed by rekindled talk of Western separation...

Yes, this is pretty clearly not ideological voting in any sense, but sectional and... that's really not good or healthy.

[cinyc]

Clipped it and added more insets (I skipped over Ottawa for some reason). I'm also testing whether you can just post a photo from Twitter - the source is me on Twitter from Elections Canada shapefiles & results.

https://twitter.com/cinyc9/status/1186801161988399105

Edited to add: it doesn't appear Twitter allows you to only link a photo from a Tweet.

[Co-Chair Bagel23]

I'm not saying the left wing would take all of them, that's why I labeled many tossup, but like there is no doubt vote splitting cost the left wing like a couple dozen seats ish.

***So.  Freaking.  What.***  Such is non-binary FPTP.  You win some, you lose some.

And y'know; whatever one's partisanship, that's what makes Canadian elections and election results so much more *interesting* than when it's pared down to a strict US-style binary.  Like, take a Lib-NDP marginal race like Davenport; if it were the US, the seat would be 80-90% Democratic.  *Bo-ring*...

Excitement and how interesting something is? Wut? This isn't some game. A safe and boring left wing hold sounds just fine, thank you very much.

Also, this benefitted the left wing in canada in almost no races whatsover, instead it prolly cost the left wing a couple dozen seats. So f%ck that, bring on the mundane.

[Antonio the Sixth]

The (clap) Liberal (clap) Party (clap) of (clap) Canada (clap) is (clap) not (clap) "left"

[Oryxslayer]

The (clap) Liberal (clap) Party (clap) of (clap) Canada (clap) is (clap) not (clap) "left"

Left (clap) And (clap) Right (clap) Are (clap) Meaningless (clap) Terms (clap) Whose (clap) Applicability (clap) And (clap) Tenants (clap) Change (clap) Based (clap) On (clap) Time (clap) Period, (clap) Geography, (clap) Culture, (clap) Context, (clap) And (clap) Perspective (clap) Of (clap) The (clap) Defined (clap) Selection.

[🐒Gods of Prosperity🔱🐲💸]

nice gif-map here showing changes between '15 and now (click to see):
https://twitter.com/mcimaps/status/1186829755364106240?s=20

[Antonio the Sixth]

The (clap) Liberal (clap) Party (clap) of (clap) Canada (clap) is (clap) not (clap) "left"

Left (clap) And (clap) Right (clap) Are (clap) Meaningless (clap) Terms (clap) Whose (clap) Applicability (clap) And (clap) Tenants (clap) Change (clap) Based (clap) On (clap) Time (clap) Period, (clap) Geography, (clap) Culture, (clap) Context, (clap) And (clap) Perspective (clap) Of (clap) The (clap) Defined (clap) Selection.

maeks u think

Nevertheless, the LPC is not left-wing in any reasonable definition of the word.

[OSR stands with Israel]

I'm not saying the left wing would take all of them, that's why I labeled many tossup, but like there is no doubt vote splitting cost the left wing like a couple dozen seats ish.

***So.  Freaking.  What.***  Such is non-binary FPTP.  You win some, you lose some.

And y'know; whatever one's partisanship, that's what makes Canadian elections and election results so much more *interesting* than when it's pared down to a strict US-style binary.  Like, take a Lib-NDP marginal race like Davenport; if it were the US, the seat would be 80-90% Democratic.  *Bo-ring*...

Excitement and how interesting something is? Wut? This isn't some game. A safe and boring left wing hold sounds just fine, thank you very much.

Also, this benefitted the left wing in canada in almost no races whatsover, instead it prolly cost the left wing a couple dozen seats. So f%ck that, bring on the mundane.

If you had a two party system in Canada it probably would result in Tories vs NDP since those are the two ideological parties and Lib vote would at best go 3/5 NDP .  The Liberal Party is designed to be meant for a multi-party Parliamentary system where you have one party to the left of them and one party to the right . If NDP and Libs merged it would not benefit the Liberal party at all.


When Alliance and PC merged , the Alliance side won out

[brucejoel99]

The (clap) Liberal (clap) Party (clap) of (clap) Canada (clap) is (clap) not (clap) "left"

Left (clap) And (clap) Right (clap) Are (clap) Meaningless (clap) Terms (clap) Whose (clap) Applicability (clap) And (clap) Tenants (clap) Change (clap) Based (clap) On (clap) Time (clap) Period, (clap) Geography, (clap) Culture, (clap) Context, (clap) And (clap) Perspective (clap) Of (clap) The (clap) Defined (clap) Selection.

maeks u think

Nevertheless, the LPC is not left-wing in any reasonable definition of the word.

I mean, sure, the Liberals are right-wing in the social "welfare state" sense. You don't hear much talk from them about 35-hour work weeks or expanding paid holidays, & they're certainly not Che Guevara fetishists or something. But in an Anglosphere & even G7 sense, they're undeniably left-wing. After all, name me one major party in any other industrialized nation that still even advocates for one-tier health care, let alone counts it as a cornerstone policy. I think that, at the end of the day, the Liberals are more of a consensus-based, pragmatic party than anything else. They tend to provide what the Canadian voter generally wants.

[adma]

I'm not saying the left wing would take all of them, that's why I labeled many tossup, but like there is no doubt vote splitting cost the left wing like a couple dozen seats ish.

***So.  Freaking.  What.***  Such is non-binary FPTP.  You win some, you lose some.

And y'know; whatever one's partisanship, that's what makes Canadian elections and election results so much more *interesting* than when it's pared down to a strict US-style binary.  Like, take a Lib-NDP marginal race like Davenport; if it were the US, the seat would be 80-90% Democratic.  *Bo-ring*...

Excitement and how interesting something is? Wut? This isn't some game. A safe and boring left wing hold sounds just fine, thank you very much.

Also, this benefitted the left wing in canada in almost no races whatsover, instead it prolly cost the left wing a couple dozen seats. So f%ck that, bring on the mundane.

You have to realize, though: in this forum, you're dealing with psephologists.  Election geeks who are into poll-by-poll statistics and election maps and whatnot: documents which express the electoral "soul" of the land, if you will.  We may have our political inclinations; but we're willing to suspend them on behalf of fascinated bystanderdom relative to maps like this (Toronto 2011: a wonderful patchwork of blue, red, and orange)
http://2.bp.blogspot.com/-a0qWaCgupOk/Tib2R82-bRI/AAAAAAAAAGs/NAsWVtrTH2Q/s1600/toronto2011.png
It's kind of like opting for an electoral Route 66 over the electoral Interstate.  And if you'd rather take the Interstate even as a "leisurely" option, that's your problem.

[Oryxslayer]

I'm not saying the left wing would take all of them, that's why I labeled many tossup, but like there is no doubt vote splitting cost the left wing like a couple dozen seats ish.

***So.  Freaking.  What.***  Such is non-binary FPTP.  You win some, you lose some.

And y'know; whatever one's partisanship, that's what makes Canadian elections and election results so much more *interesting* than when it's pared down to a strict US-style binary.  Like, take a Lib-NDP marginal race like Davenport; if it were the US, the seat would be 80-90% Democratic.  *Bo-ring*...

Excitement and how interesting something is? Wut? This isn't some game. A safe and boring left wing hold sounds just fine, thank you very much.

Also, this benefitted the left wing in canada in almost no races whatsover, instead it prolly cost the left wing a couple dozen seats. So f%ck that, bring on the mundane.

You have to realize, though: in this forum, you're dealing with psephologists.  Election geeks who are into poll-by-poll statistics and election maps and whatnot: documents which express the electoral "soul" of the land, if you will.  We may have our political inclinations; but we're willing to suspend them on behalf of fascinated bystanderdom relative to maps like this (Toronto 2011: a wonderful patchwork of blue, red, and orange)
http://2.bp.blogspot.com/-a0qWaCgupOk/Tib2R82-bRI/AAAAAAAAAGs/NAsWVtrTH2Q/s1600/toronto2011.png
It's kind of like opting for an electoral Route 66 over the electoral Interstate.  And if you'd rather take the Interstate even as a "leisurely" option, that's your problem.

I'm sorry, but this is a copy-pasta waiting to happen.

[brucejoel99]

I'm not saying the left wing would take all of them, that's why I labeled many tossup, but like there is no doubt vote splitting cost the left wing like a couple dozen seats ish.

***So.  Freaking.  What.***  Such is non-binary FPTP.  You win some, you lose some.

And y'know; whatever one's partisanship, that's what makes Canadian elections and election results so much more *interesting* than when it's pared down to a strict US-style binary.  Like, take a Lib-NDP marginal race like Davenport; if it were the US, the seat would be 80-90% Democratic.  *Bo-ring*...

Excitement and how interesting something is? Wut? This isn't some game. A safe and boring left wing hold sounds just fine, thank you very much.

Also, this benefitted the left wing in canada in almost no races whatsover, instead it prolly cost the left wing a couple dozen seats. So f%ck that, bring on the mundane.

You have to realize, though: in this forum, you're dealing with psephologists.  Election geeks who are into poll-by-poll statistics and election maps and whatnot: documents which express the electoral "soul" of the land, if you will.  We may have our political inclinations; but we're willing to suspend them on behalf of fascinated bystanderdom relative to maps like this (Toronto 2011: a wonderful patchwork of blue, red, and orange)
http://2.bp.blogspot.com/-a0qWaCgupOk/Tib2R82-bRI/AAAAAAAAAGs/NAsWVtrTH2Q/s1600/toronto2011.png
It's kind of like opting for an electoral Route 66 over the electoral Interstate.  And if you'd rather take the Interstate even as a "leisurely" option, that's your problem.

I'm sorry, but this is a copy-pasta waiting to happen.

You have to realize, though: in this forum, you're dealing with psephologists.  Election geeks who are into poll-by-poll statistics and election maps and whatnot: documents which express the electoral "soul" of the land, if you will.  We may have our political inclinations; but we're willing to suspend them on behalf of fascinated bystanderdom relative to maps like this (Toronto 2011: a wonderful patchwork of blue, red, and orange)

[Antonio the Sixth]

After all, name me one major party in any other industrialized nation that still even advocates for one-tier health care, let alone counts it as a cornerstone policy.

What on earth are you talking about?? Most Western countries have reached a consensus around some form of publicly funded health care system (and note that Canada has a weaker form of it, only State health insurance rather than a socialized health industry itself) that not even right-wing parties dare to touch. If not wanting to abolish Medicare makes Trudeau left-wing, I guess BoJo is a full-blown communist for wanting to increase NHS funding?

[Swedish Rainbow Capitalist Cheese]

After all, name me one major party in any other industrialized nation that still even advocates for one-tier health care, let alone counts it as a cornerstone policy.

What on earth are you talking about?? Most Western countries have reached a consensus around some form of publicly funded health care system (and note that Canada has a weaker form of it, only State health insurance rather than a socialized health industry itself) that not even right-wing parties dare to touch. If not wanting to abolish Medicare makes Trudeau left-wing, I guess BoJo is a full-blown communist for wanting to increase NHS funding?

His name is Boris... sounds pretty communist to me...

[EastAnglianLefty]

At the end of the day, what a race. I think it has to be seen as a repudiation of Andrew Scheer & the Conservatives, though. He claimed he's put Trudeau "on notice," but that's what my 5th Grade teacher Mrs. Fox did when she wrote names on the whiteboard. Scheer isn't a teacher, & Trudeau isn't a 5th-grader.

As it stands, the Conservatives have received around 6.1 million votes. That's about 500,000 more votes than they received in 2015, & this was the election where it came out that the PM wore blackface more times than he could remember.

Despite all the gnashing of teeth about Trudeau's "horrible" performance as PM, & all the sly nods about the shy Tories, it turns out that running without a climate plan, running on maligning your opponents outright, & explicitly supporting misinformation is a losing plan. Based on the regional results, the Conservatives were supported in the West by a larger margin compared to 2015 while losing votes everywhere else. This despite 4 years (& 40 days) of telling us over & over that Trudeau was ruining this country. So something went wrong.

Despite what the CBC was intimating last night, we know this: Doug Ford is a disaster for the province & the Conservatives. Conservative supporters have trumped Ford up as some messiah, despite every indication that fatigue with Liberals granted him a majority, & we have yet more proof in Toronto last night that Ford is an albatross around the Conservative neck. Maybe somebody on the right will admit he was a bad choice? Maybe, somewhere, a cadre of social conservatives are understanding the depth of their mistake in supporting him?

We know this: the anti-carbon tax crusade was a disastrous position to take, let alone clutch to your chest like a pearl necklace. The Greens received 1.1 million votes in this election. They got 600,000 in 2015, & turnout dropped this time around. Right now, we can see that the Canadian electorate is changing. I think in 5 years' time, we'll be able to say that the Canadian electorate has changed.

All of this to say that as we hear whining about Western alienation & separation in the weeks to come, it's important to remember that a party that seemingly ran on a campaign for the last 4 years (& 40 days) crafted to increase their vote count in ridings that they've already won have dug a hole that Western voters are now sitting in. Andrew Scheer & the Conservatives have alienated the West. Andrew Scheer & the Conservatives are now the opposition to a minority government in which they'll have no say in the governance of the country. Andrew Scheer & the Conservatives have systematically turned this country against the West by refusing to budge on issues on which the majority of Canadians disagree. If the West wants in, the West must compromise.

Time to admit, for instance, that climate change is real (not a party position, but one anecdotally espoused by the CPC). Time to admit that a Conservative-originated carbon-tax might be an okay idea. Time to admit that Trudeau might be a bad PM, but not a traitor, nor a criminal, nor whatever denigrating term they're using this week.

If these results continue for Conservatives, they'll once again be shut out of government for a decade. Maybe it's time to rethink what they've done since 2011?

My friends who live in Western Canada say it’s the East who have alienated the west over and over again not the other way around . Which is why they hate the Liberals a lot .


They think the Tories are currently already too pro Quebec and pro East in general

But in electoral terms, your friends are observably wrong. The Tories are getting more votes than they need in the west, they aren't getting enough votes in Quebec or the east (or most of BC, for that matter) to form a government. If they actually want to do something for the West, then they have to do something to win support in those areas, even if it ends up driving away some of their support.

I'm going to be contrarian, and suggest that this is a very good result for the NDP in that it will be a great opportunity for them.

The result is very similar to Jack's first election in 2004. 4th place, 16% of the vote, Liberal-led minority government. The big difference was the gain in seats, but they only won a paltry 19 seats. Another difference was that the NDP didn't quite hold the balance of power. But, now they do. The NDP has more power now than they did in 2011 when they were opposition.

The minority governments of the 2000s were great for the NDP, and ultimately led to the Orange crush in 2011. The same could happen now.

Not too long ago, the NDP were poised for a single digit election night, but Jagmeet pulled them out from that. Sure, it fell rather short from what we hoped, but it's still a relief. Jagmeet is a great campaigner, he's not going anywhere.

I want to agree with this, but I'm not sure I do. Singh is popular in the abstract, but there is a question of where the votes are going to come from to turn that into seats. It wasn't a good election result in the west or in non-GTA Ontario; in BC the Greens continue to be a threat (both in terms of the NDP base and their chances of winning disillusioned Liberals); the results in Toronto were straight-up disastrous, as voters who had no need to vote tactically for Trudeau did it anyway; and you can't blame him for Quebec's median voter being pretty racist, but it doesn't seem likely to change any time soon and that will dull the NDP's prospects there.

It just feels like people like him because it's safe to do so, but when push comes to shove it doesn't transform into anything meaningful.

[DC Al Fine]

The comments about Scheer and Singh's results are classic Atlas.

Scheer: +25 seats, wins the popular vote. "He has to go"
Singh: -15 seats, worst share in 15 years. "Here's a list of reasons why he should stay"

[Epaminondas]

Still bro, dozens of seats.

Can you give us a list?

Port Moody-Coquitlam, Right wing parties only got ~33% and won the seat

Kenora, Right wing parties only got ~36% and won the seat

Niagara Falls, Right wing parties only got ~37% and won the seat

Chicoutimi-Le Fjord, Right wing parties only got ~38% and won the seat

Pitt Meadows-Maple Ridge, Right wing parties only got ~38% and won the seat

_______________________________________________________________

Cloverdale-Langley City, Right wing parties only got ~40% and won the seat

West Nova, Right wing parties only got ~40% and won the seat

Charlesbourg-Haute-Saint-Charles, Right wing parties only got ~40% and won the seat

Flamborough-Glanbrook, Right wing parties only got ~40% and won the seat

Barrie-Springwater-Oro-Medonte, Right wing parties only got ~41% and won the seat

Oshawa, Right wing parties only got ~41% and won the seat

Northumberland-Peterborough South, Right wing parties only got ~42% and won the seat

Parry Sound-Muskoka, Right wing parties only got ~42% and won the seat

Desnethé-Missinippi-Churchill River, Right wing parties only got ~42% and won the seat

Steveston-Richmond East, Right wing parties only got ~42% and won the seat

Your effort is commendable, but in fairness only the 15 seats above could really have flipped under FPTP. It's unreasonable to expect parties to pull candidates in line for 3rd place, or voters to cast ballots strategically on a large scale.

What your list does show is that if Trudeau had successfully carried out his promised electoral reform, he would without a doubt be sitting on a majority of ~180 today.

[Ethelberth]

The (clap) Liberal (clap) Party (clap) of (clap) Canada (clap) is (clap) not (clap) "left"

Left (clap) And (clap) Right (clap) Are (clap) Meaningless (clap) Terms (clap) Whose (clap) Applicability (clap) And (clap) Tenants (clap) Change (clap) Based (clap) On (clap) Time (clap) Period, (clap) Geography, (clap) Culture, (clap) Context, (clap) And (clap) Perspective (clap) Of (clap) The (clap) Defined (clap) Selection.

maeks u think

Nevertheless, the LPC is not left-wing in any reasonable "eight school of socialism" definition of the word.

The Canadian Right is not hyseterically right-wing and Canadian Liberals do not stem from socialist tradition of parties. They not pretend to be tenth version of socialism either.

[lilTommy]

I'm going to be contrarian, and suggest that this is a very good result for the NDP in that it will be a great opportunity for them.

The result is very similar to Jack's first election in 2004. 4th place, 16% of the vote, Liberal-led minority government. The big difference was the gain in seats, but they only won a paltry 19 seats. Another difference was that the NDP didn't quite hold the balance of power. But, now they do. The NDP has more power now than they did in 2011 when they were opposition.

The minority governments of the 2000s were great for the NDP, and ultimately led to the Orange crush in 2011. The same could happen now.

Not too long ago, the NDP were poised for a single digit election night, but Jagmeet pulled them out from that. Sure, it fell rather short from what we hoped, but it's still a relief. Jagmeet is a great campaigner, he's not going anywhere.

I want to agree with this, but I'm not sure I do. Singh is popular in the abstract, but there is a question of where the votes are going to come from to turn that into seats. It wasn't a good election result in the west or in non-GTA Ontario; in BC the Greens continue to be a threat (both in terms of the NDP base and their chances of winning disillusioned Liberals); the results in Toronto were straight-up disastrous, as voters who had no need to vote tactically for Trudeau did it anyway; and you can't blame him for Quebec's median voter being pretty racist, but it doesn't seem likely to change any time soon and that will dull the NDP's prospects there.

It just feels like people like him because it's safe to do so, but when push comes to shove it doesn't transform into anything meaningful.
[/quote]

I think you're really failing to realize that in Toronto in particular, the strategic voting fear mongering works, and works well sadly. I'd wager that in the core ridings of Toronto (those 8 old city of Toronto seats, more like 7 since Toronto-St.Pauls is much more mid-town feeling then DT except for the 2018 ON election) about 40% of those Progressive voters are swinger voters who will equally vote NDP or LPC. It doesn't matter that many of these voters don't have to vote LPC to stop the CPC, they do b/c it scares them so much, they will vote LPC since they were seen nationally as the strongest Progressive party. That's partly why the NDP swept these ridings provincially as well, Horwath and the ONDP were seen as the best Progressive choice so you saw places like Spadina-Fort York go 50% NDP; in 2015 and 2019 FED this went LPC by 50%. You can see where the NDP can win in TO, you just need to look at ON 2018. It was, frankly not a LPC vote but an anti-CPC vote.
For me it even more clear in the Old suburbs where this strategic vote was the most obvious, places like Humber River-Black Creek, Scarborough Southwest where the NDP have a strong and growing base that the shift was most obvious that this was a strategic vote. The Ford/Scheer smear again worked.
BC might be different, also disappointing especially not picking up Burnaby North-Seymor and losing Port-Moody-Coquitlam (But only by 300 votes or so). While the Green breakthrough did not happen and the NDP saved their seats on the Island, the Greens cost them half a dozen seats in the Lower Mainland.

My take is people were willing to vote NDP until the last few days of massive fear mongering from both the CPC and LPC, you can see it in the pre-election polling of the NDP at 18-20 and the CPC/LPC at around 30-32%. Sadly in Canada it's becoming standard people to vote against someone.

Hatmans point is that Singh is in a better position then Mulcair was in terms of influence and frankly power.