PA-SN 2022 megathread: Shrek vs. The Wizard of Oz

[Chancellor Tanterterg]

Cartwright seems like a better bet at this point

It would probably be smarter to elevate Cartwright given the state of his district, and I like him, but I doubt he beats Fetterman in a primary. The Scranton area can't exactly compete with Philadelphia or Pittsburgh.

Fetterman isn't going to be the candidate of choice for Philly or its suburbs; he'll get killed there in the primary.  I'm not saying Cartwright will do any better, but the point stands.  I also don't think it's clear that Fetterman would wipe the floor with Cartwright in the Pittsburgh area.  He might, but it's not a given.  Lamb would certainly beat Fetterman there if he runs.  Fetterman is also pretty untested and while he may well prove to be a really strong candidate, right now there's not much to back up all the hype. 

You're right, but I don't think Fetterman is going to get a substantial challenge. Shapiro, darling of the Philadelphia suburbs is probably going for the governorship. Lamb I don't buy is running, and maybe Houlahan runs, but I don't think she can beat Fetterman. Cartwright's base is the Scranton area, and I don't buy that he could draw serious support in Philadelphia or Pittsburgh.

Fetterman running probably means Wolf is behind him privately anyway.

Houlahan would wipe the floor with Fetterman in a one on one primary.  Also, I see no reason to think Wolf is supporting Fetterman, I think read that they don’t even get along very well (but don’t quote me on that).

[Pheurton Skeurto]

Wasn't Lamb's house seat closer than people expected?

He's also of the age where he could easily jump to another state wide office later on, or just retire and wait for it to come up...

Lamb should try and go for AG when Shapiro (hopefully) is elected Governor.

Too much of a downgrade for Lamb. I assume he'd only take that post as a last resort.

Thoughts on a Cartwright Senate campaign?

I actually like Matt Cartwright a lot. He supports Medicare for All, has been consistently in favor of tax increases on the wealthy, and has generally been very progressive in Congress. I would prefer if he didn't challenge Fetterman in the primary, but it goes to show how deep PA's bench is moving forward. I would hope his district doesn't get messed up during redistricting, but I would absolutely vote for him if he were the nominee for Senate.

[Blair]

I'm curious- do people think a primary would be a tough primary would be a good thing?

I do wonder if the democrats problem is that we haven't really had a close senate primary for an open seat for a while & as a result some rather untested campaigners have gone through un-checked?

[Left Wing]

Cartwright seems like a better bet at this point

It would probably be smarter to elevate Cartwright given the state of his district, and I like him, but I doubt he beats Fetterman in a primary. The Scranton area can't exactly compete with Philadelphia or Pittsburgh.

Fetterman isn't going to be the candidate of choice for Philly or its suburbs; he'll get killed there in the primary.  I'm not saying Cartwright will do any better, but the point stands.  I also don't think it's clear that Fetterman would wipe the floor with Cartwright in the Pittsburgh area.  He might, but it's not a given.  Lamb would certainly beat Fetterman there if he runs.  Fetterman is also pretty untested and while he may well prove to be a really strong candidate, right now there's not much to back up all the hype. 

You're right, but I don't think Fetterman is going to get a substantial challenge. Shapiro, darling of the Philadelphia suburbs is probably going for the governorship. Lamb I don't buy is running, and maybe Houlahan runs, but I don't think she can beat Fetterman. Cartwright's base is the Scranton area, and I don't buy that he could draw serious support in Philadelphia or Pittsburgh.

Fetterman running probably means Wolf is behind him privately anyway.

Houlahan would wipe the floor with Fetterman in a one on one primary.  Also, I see no reason to think Wolf is supporting Fetterman, I think read that they don’t even get along very well (but don’t quote me on that).

That seems rather confident about Houlahan. Fetterman has the name recognition and almost certainly a fundraising advantage. And he has the advantage of having been elected statewide over her. I don’t see much reason to believe that she’d be a particularly strong candidate or that she’s even considering running at all. Also Wolf and Fetterman do seem like they get along pretty well, at least compared to Stack.

[Chancellor Tanterterg]

Cartwright seems like a better bet at this point

It would probably be smarter to elevate Cartwright given the state of his district, and I like him, but I doubt he beats Fetterman in a primary. The Scranton area can't exactly compete with Philadelphia or Pittsburgh.

Fetterman isn't going to be the candidate of choice for Philly or its suburbs; he'll get killed there in the primary.  I'm not saying Cartwright will do any better, but the point stands.  I also don't think it's clear that Fetterman would wipe the floor with Cartwright in the Pittsburgh area.  He might, but it's not a given.  Lamb would certainly beat Fetterman there if he runs.  Fetterman is also pretty untested and while he may well prove to be a really strong candidate, right now there's not much to back up all the hype. 

You're right, but I don't think Fetterman is going to get a substantial challenge. Shapiro, darling of the Philadelphia suburbs is probably going for the governorship. Lamb I don't buy is running, and maybe Houlahan runs, but I don't think she can beat Fetterman. Cartwright's base is the Scranton area, and I don't buy that he could draw serious support in Philadelphia or Pittsburgh.

Fetterman running probably means Wolf is behind him privately anyway.

Houlahan would wipe the floor with Fetterman in a one on one primary.  Also, I see no reason to think Wolf is supporting Fetterman, I think read that they don’t even get along very well (but don’t quote me on that).

That seems rather confident about Houlahan. Fetterman has the name recognition and almost certainly a fundraising advantage. And he has the advantage of having been elected statewide over her. I don’t see much reason to believe that she’d be a particularly strong candidate or that she’s even considering running at all. Also Wolf and Fetterman do seem like they get along pretty well, at least compared to Stack.

Well, Houlahan would clean up in the Philly burbs and Philly, that alone would kill Fetterman in a one on one primary.  Fetterman, Cartwright, and Lamb all need a 3-4 person field and/or multiple strong Philly area candidates.  Also, not convinced Fetterman will have a massive fundraising advantage or that most people in PA know who the Lt. Governor is

[Born to Slay. Forced to Work.]

Wasn't Lamb's house seat closer than people expected?

He's also of the age where he could easily jump to another state wide office later on, or just retire and wait for it to come up...

Lamb should try and go for AG when Shapiro (hopefully) is elected Governor.

Too much of a downgrade for Lamb. I assume he'd only take that post as a last resort.

Why do you consider it a downgrade for lamb?

[wbrocks67]

Fetterman and Wolf get a long very well, apparently. Wolf is definitely behind Fetterman (and likely Shapiro too)

I don't think Houlahan or Lamb will run though. Houlahan would certainly give Fetterman a run for his money, but Fetterman has more statewide name rec

[Left Wing]

Wasn't Lamb's house seat closer than people expected?

He's also of the age where he could easily jump to another state wide office later on, or just retire and wait for it to come up...

Lamb should try and go for AG when Shapiro (hopefully) is elected Governor.

Too much of a downgrade for Lamb. I assume he'd only take that post as a last resort.

Well if he loses re-election to the house, a statewide appointment wouldn’t be THAT much of a downgrade. It depends heavily on what his district looks like in 2022.

[KaiserDave]

Cartwright seems like a better bet at this point

It would probably be smarter to elevate Cartwright given the state of his district, and I like him, but I doubt he beats Fetterman in a primary. The Scranton area can't exactly compete with Philadelphia or Pittsburgh.

Fetterman isn't going to be the candidate of choice for Philly or its suburbs; he'll get killed there in the primary.  I'm not saying Cartwright will do any better, but the point stands.  I also don't think it's clear that Fetterman would wipe the floor with Cartwright in the Pittsburgh area.  He might, but it's not a given.  Lamb would certainly beat Fetterman there if he runs.  Fetterman is also pretty untested and while he may well prove to be a really strong candidate, right now there's not much to back up all the hype. 

You're right, but I don't think Fetterman is going to get a substantial challenge. Shapiro, darling of the Philadelphia suburbs is probably going for the governorship. Lamb I don't buy is running, and maybe Houlahan runs, but I don't think she can beat Fetterman. Cartwright's base is the Scranton area, and I don't buy that he could draw serious support in Philadelphia or Pittsburgh.

Fetterman running probably means Wolf is behind him privately anyway.

Houlahan would wipe the floor with Fetterman in a one on one primary.  Also, I see no reason to think Wolf is supporting Fetterman, I think read that they don’t even get along very well (but don’t quote me on that).

That seems rather confident about Houlahan. Fetterman has the name recognition and almost certainly a fundraising advantage. And he has the advantage of having been elected statewide over her. I don’t see much reason to believe that she’d be a particularly strong candidate or that she’s even considering running at all. Also Wolf and Fetterman do seem like they get along pretty well, at least compared to Stack.

Well, Houlahan would clean up in the Philly burbs and Philly, that alone would kill Fetterman in a one on one primary.  Fetterman, Cartwright, and Lamb all need a 3-4 person field and/or multiple strong Philly area candidates.  Also, not convinced Fetterman will have a massive fundraising advantage or that most people in PA know who the Lt. Governor is

Based on the last 48 hours he would absolutely have a fundraising edge.

[tosk]

I'm curious- do people think a primary would be a tough primary would be a good thing?

I do wonder if the democrats problem is that we haven't really had a close senate primary for an open seat for a while & as a result some rather untested campaigners have gone through un-checked?

I lean towards thinking that tough primaries are good, but not if theres 5 or more candiates. It gets too fractured and then someone with 25% wins and that just doesn't sit right with me.

This being said, GOP faced a problem with a tough primary in 2018 where Mike Braun made his come from behind win. If either of the others had won it *may* have been a problem.

I'd still rather we test our candidates though.

[RI]

Fetterman seems like a very strong candidate.

[Progressive Pessimist]

Let's remember that Fetterman ran in the Democratic primary for the 2016 Senate election. He clearly has always wanted to be Senator.

[Chancellor Tanterterg]

Cartwright seems like a better bet at this point

It would probably be smarter to elevate Cartwright given the state of his district, and I like him, but I doubt he beats Fetterman in a primary. The Scranton area can't exactly compete with Philadelphia or Pittsburgh.

Fetterman isn't going to be the candidate of choice for Philly or its suburbs; he'll get killed there in the primary.  I'm not saying Cartwright will do any better, but the point stands.  I also don't think it's clear that Fetterman would wipe the floor with Cartwright in the Pittsburgh area.  He might, but it's not a given.  Lamb would certainly beat Fetterman there if he runs.  Fetterman is also pretty untested and while he may well prove to be a really strong candidate, right now there's not much to back up all the hype. 

You're right, but I don't think Fetterman is going to get a substantial challenge. Shapiro, darling of the Philadelphia suburbs is probably going for the governorship. Lamb I don't buy is running, and maybe Houlahan runs, but I don't think she can beat Fetterman. Cartwright's base is the Scranton area, and I don't buy that he could draw serious support in Philadelphia or Pittsburgh.

Fetterman running probably means Wolf is behind him privately anyway.

Houlahan would wipe the floor with Fetterman in a one on one primary.  Also, I see no reason to think Wolf is supporting Fetterman, I think read that they don’t even get along very well (but don’t quote me on that).

That seems rather confident about Houlahan. Fetterman has the name recognition and almost certainly a fundraising advantage. And he has the advantage of having been elected statewide over her. I don’t see much reason to believe that she’d be a particularly strong candidate or that she’s even considering running at all. Also Wolf and Fetterman do seem like they get along pretty well, at least compared to Stack.

Well, Houlahan would clean up in the Philly burbs and Philly, that alone would kill Fetterman in a one on one primary.  Fetterman, Cartwright, and Lamb all need a 3-4 person field and/or multiple strong Philly area candidates.  Also, not convinced Fetterman will have a massive fundraising advantage or that most people in PA know who the Lt. Governor is

Based on the last 48 hours he would absolutely have a fundraising edge.

No one else is running yet

[Pheurton Skeurto]

Wasn't Lamb's house seat closer than people expected?

He's also of the age where he could easily jump to another state wide office later on, or just retire and wait for it to come up...

Lamb should try and go for AG when Shapiro (hopefully) is elected Governor.

Too much of a downgrade for Lamb. I assume he'd only take that post as a last resort.

Why do you consider it a downgrade for lamb?

Being a state attorney general pales in comparison to being a young, rising star in a crucial district in a swing state. He’s got pretty much a perfect resumé to be a Senator, which is why I think he may run for higher office.

[Co-Chair Bagel23]

https://twitter.com/JohnFetterman/status/1348659683716984833

You are welcome King.

[Co-Chair Bagel23]

ik it’s not the sexiest thing ever, but if dems want to keep PA competitive, they have to continue to cut into york, lancaster, cumberland, dauphin, lebanon. SEPA is not enough. There a looooooot of people in those five counties combined that I listed, and they are growing, and gop has room to fall further there.

[wbrocks67]

ik it’s not the sexiest thing ever, but if dems want to keep PA competitive, they have to continue to cut into york, lancaster, cumberland, dauphin, lebanon. SEPA is not enough. There a looooooot of people in those five counties combined that I listed, and they are growing, and gop has room to fall further there.

Yep, Lancaster and Cumberland in particular, which are both showing strong trends favorable to Dems. As well as Dauphin/Harrisburg suburbs

[Pheurton Skeurto]

ik it’s not the sexiest thing ever, but if dems want to keep PA competitive, they have to continue to cut into york, lancaster, cumberland, dauphin, lebanon. SEPA is not enough. There a looooooot of people in those five counties combined that I listed, and they are growing, and gop has room to fall further there.

I'm gonna do my part on the ground out here 👍Lancaster especially is demographically shifting to be very favorable for Democrats so hopefully we can make some significant gains out here.

[Oregon Eagle Politics]

Fetterman or Cartright pls.

[Ferguson97]

Is there a consensus on the R nominee?

[bee33]

I think Fetterman would probably start out as the favorite.

[Not Me, Us]

Is there a consensus on the R nominee?

Former Rep. Ryan Costello is making noise about running, but probably won't get through the primary. Reps. Brian Fitzpatrick and Guy Reschenthaler are probably going to run, with Reschenthaler starting as the favorite in the primary.

[Roll Roons]

Is there a consensus on the R nominee?

Former Rep. Ryan Costello is making noise about running, but probably won't get through the primary. Reps. Brian Fitzpatrick and Guy Reschenthaler are probably going to run, with Reschenthaler starting as the favorite in the primary.

I don't see Fitzpatrick and Costello both running. There's also the possibility for a hardcore Trumpy candidate like Kelly, Perry or Mastriano.

[wesmoorenerd]

Is there a consensus on the R nominee?

Former Rep. Ryan Costello is making noise about running, but probably won't get through the primary. Reps. Brian Fitzpatrick and Guy Reschenthaler are probably going to run, with Reschenthaler starting as the favorite in the primary.

I don't see Fitzpatrick and Costello both running. There's also the possibility for a hardcore Trumpy candidate like Kelly, Perry or Mastriano.

accept the inevitability of don jr

[Roll Roons]

Is there a consensus on the R nominee?

Former Rep. Ryan Costello is making noise about running, but probably won't get through the primary. Reps. Brian Fitzpatrick and Guy Reschenthaler are probably going to run, with Reschenthaler starting as the favorite in the primary.

I don't see Fitzpatrick and Costello both running. There's also the possibility for a hardcore Trumpy candidate like Kelly, Perry or Mastriano.

accept the inevitability of don jr

If he's the nominee, I will do my part to make sure the Democrat, whether it be Fetterman or someone else, wins the seat. The Trumps should be nowhere near public office. They are the single most dangerous and destructive family in our country's history.