PA-SN 2022 megathread: Shrek vs. The Wizard of Oz

[KaiserDave]

Shapiro for Senate, Fetterman for Governor!

[KaiserDave]

Shapiro for Senate, Fetterman for Governor!

How about Wolf for Senate and Fetterman for gov.?

Wolf isn't really interested in higher office. He will be over 70.

[KaiserDave]

Shapiro for Senate, Fetterman for Governor!

Funny enough I think the opposite.. I'd expect Shapiro for Gov and Fetterman for Senate. I feel like the Senate race will be more partisan and Fetterman could appeal more to a possibly more R electorate. But then again, Shapiro will likely be up 5% by the end of it this year when Biden only won by ~1

I think Shapiro has a better track record winning over R voters. In any case I expect the race to be within 2%.

[KaiserDave]

Shapiro for Senate, Fetterman for Governor!

Other way around for me

I feel like Shapiro is a stronger candidate, and therefore should run for Senate. Fetterman is also Lt. Governor, feels logical he would go for the Gov position.

[KaiserDave]

Lean R. Biden only won here by about 1%; I think Fitzpatrick would be the GOP's strongest candidate, and they needn't worry about sacrificing a House seat.

Well, if we're going off of this year, then Shapiro should be the SEN candidate then, since he outperformed Biden by nearly 4% with record GOP turnout.

But yes, realistically, Fitz is probably the best person the GOP has statewide. Their bench is pretty awful.

They did pick up two statewide offices this year, so one of them could run.

The Treasury isn't confirmed yet.

Torsella Conceded

[KaiserDave]

Lean R. Biden only won here by about 1%; I think Fitzpatrick would be the GOP's strongest candidate, and they needn't worry about sacrificing a House seat.

Well, if we're going off of this year, then Shapiro should be the SEN candidate then, since he outperformed Biden by nearly 4% with record GOP turnout.

But yes, realistically, Fitz is probably the best person the GOP has statewide. Their bench is pretty awful.

They did pick up two statewide offices this year, so one of them could run.

The Treasury isn't confirmed yet.

Torsella Conceded

The Torsella loss is really sad, too. He won by 5% in 2016 while Clinton lost - even out performing Shapiro. Not sure what happened this year. Straight ticket voting was gone, but he was also the incumbent too. He should not have underperformed Biden.

I think he got serious flak for obviously seeking higher office and not focusing on his job

[KaiserDave]

Fitzpatrick has an F from the NRA. It's not going to be him.

[KaiserDave]

Fitzpatrick has an F from the NRA. It's not going to be him.

Depends on what year we're going to have IMO. If we have an Anti-Establishment Year in the GOP during 2022 then yes I agree with you it's probably not going to be him.

However if the GOP returns to the Establishment like they did in 2014 when they captured the Senate Majority he will be the Nominee I think. Remember in 2014: McConnell beat Bevin in the Primary, the Establishment pushed out far-right extremists like Ken Buck in CO so that Gardner could win, they threw everything behind Tillis in the NC Primary. That paid dividends in the General Election.

The GOP isn't going back to 2014, that is long past

[KaiserDave]

Fitzpatrick has an F from the NRA. It's not going to be him.

Depends on what year we're going to have IMO. If we have an Anti-Establishment Year in the GOP during 2022 then yes I agree with you it's probably not going to be him.

However if the GOP returns to the Establishment like they did in 2014 when they captured the Senate Majority he will be the Nominee I think. Remember in 2014: McConnell beat Bevin in the Primary, the Establishment pushed out far-right extremists like Ken Buck in CO so that Gardner could win, they threw everything behind Tillis in the NC Primary. That paid dividends in the General Election.

The GOP isn't going back to 2014, that is long past

How do you know that? Do you have a Crystal Ball or something? It's more likely than not that 2022 will be the year of the Establishment in BOTH PARTIES given that Trump is gone and AOC & her cohorts hurt Democrats a lot this year by failing to expand their House Majority.

If you think the GOP is going back to the Jeb!/Mitt/Paul Ryan years, I think you're very wrong.

[KaiserDave]

Fitzpatrick has an F from the NRA. It's not going to be him.

Depends on what year we're going to have IMO. If we have an Anti-Establishment Year in the GOP during 2022 then yes I agree with you it's probably not going to be him.

However if the GOP returns to the Establishment like they did in 2014 when they captured the Senate Majority he will be the Nominee I think. Remember in 2014: McConnell beat Bevin in the Primary, the Establishment pushed out far-right extremists like Ken Buck in CO so that Gardner could win, they threw everything behind Tillis in the NC Primary. That paid dividends in the General Election.

The GOP isn't going back to 2014, that is long past

How do you know that? Do you have a Crystal Ball or something? It's more likely than not that 2022 will be the year of the Establishment in BOTH PARTIES given that Trump is gone and AOC & her cohorts hurt Democrats a lot this year by failing to expand their House Majority.

If you think the GOP is going back to the Jeb!/Mitt/Paul Ryan years, I think you're very wrong.

I am not saying that BUT McConnell will be making sure he gets the most electable Candidates running for Senate in 2022 especially with Rick Scott now being the new Chairman of the NRSC.

Remember: McConnell's Majority PAC was dumping a lot of $$$$ to make sure Kobach was defeated in the KS-SEN GOP Primary this year. This will happen all over the Country in 2022 methinks!

PA GOP has a very thin bench. Who's gonna challenge Fitzpatrick if he runs? Tell me!

I'm not saying that the PA GOP is going to nominate a QAnon acolyte. They very well might, but it's unlikely. But Fitzpatrick is much to the left of a Roger Marshall on key wedge issues for the GOP base. Fitzpatrick is pro gun control, pro-DACA, and at least more anti-Trump than the average Republican.

These are not positions that will be tenable in a Republican primary, especially in a year where Republican enthusiasm is probable to be higher than average.

I don't know who the GOP will nominate, but I doubt Fitzpatrick even runs.

[KaiserDave]

Fitzpatrick has an F from the NRA. It's not going to be him.

Depends on what year we're going to have IMO. If we have an Anti-Establishment Year in the GOP during 2022 then yes I agree with you it's probably not going to be him.

However if the GOP returns to the Establishment like they did in 2014 when they captured the Senate Majority he will be the Nominee I think. Remember in 2014: McConnell beat Bevin in the Primary, the Establishment pushed out far-right extremists like Ken Buck in CO so that Gardner could win, they threw everything behind Tillis in the NC Primary. That paid dividends in the General Election.

The GOP isn't going back to 2014, that is long past

How do you know that? Do you have a Crystal Ball or something? It's more likely than not that 2022 will be the year of the Establishment in BOTH PARTIES given that Trump is gone and AOC & her cohorts hurt Democrats a lot this year by failing to expand their House Majority.

If you think the GOP is going back to the Jeb!/Mitt/Paul Ryan years, I think you're very wrong.

I am not saying that BUT McConnell will be making sure he gets the most electable Candidates running for Senate in 2022 especially with Rick Scott now being the new Chairman of the NRSC.

Remember: McConnell's Majority PAC was dumping a lot of $$$$ to make sure Kobach was defeated in the KS-SEN GOP Primary this year. This will happen all over the Country in 2022 methinks!

PA GOP has a very thin bench. Who's gonna challenge Fitzpatrick if he runs? Tell me!

I'm not saying that the PA GOP is going to nominate a QAnon acolyte. They very well might, but it's unlikely. But Fitzpatrick is much to the left of a Roger Marshall on key wedge issues for the GOP base. Fitzpatrick is pro gun control, pro-DACA, and at least more anti-Trump than the average Republican.

These are not positions that will be tenable in a Republican primary, especially in a year where Republican enthusiasm is probable to be higher than average.

I don't know who the GOP will nominate, but I doubt Fitzpatrick even runs.

Why? Fitzpatrick must be tired having to hang on for dear life every two years to keep his House Seat. He even might be redistricted out of it. He's the only one who has a reasonable chance at least saving the Seat and force D's to spent money in it.

He just won handily. I expect him to have no issue winning reelection in 2022 or 2024.

[KaiserDave]

I'm not sure McConnell would want to recruit Fitzpatrick given his stance on the ACA.

Who cares? Once the SCOTUS rules on it, it will be in the rear-view mirror! ACA won't be an issue in 2022 at all.

SCOTUS isn't striking down ACA

[KaiserDave]

I'm not sure McConnell would want to recruit Fitzpatrick given his stance on the ACA.

Who cares? Once the SCOTUS rules on it, it will be in the rear-view mirror! ACA won't be an issue in 2022 at all.

SCOTUS isn't striking down ACA

However they rule is a boon to the GOP, gets the issue out of politics and peoples minds thankfully. Same thing happened with gay marriage, the SCOTUS saved the GOP on the issue.

If they do strike down ACA...that’s not good at all for the GOP

[KaiserDave]

Fitzpatrick has an F from the NRA. It's not going to be him.

Depends on what year we're going to have IMO. If we have an Anti-Establishment Year in the GOP during 2022 then yes I agree with you it's probably not going to be him.

However if the GOP returns to the Establishment like they did in 2014 when they captured the Senate Majority he will be the Nominee I think. Remember in 2014: McConnell beat Bevin in the Primary, the Establishment pushed out far-right extremists like Ken Buck in CO so that Gardner could win, they threw everything behind Tillis in the NC Primary. That paid dividends in the General Election.

McConnell, Gardner, and Tillis are all pretty conservative. Fitzpatrick not so much.

Exactly. While Gardner and Tillis are far more manageable than Akin, Buck, or Moore types, they haven’t done anything really to turn the base sharply against them in a primary

As for Reschenthaler, he is a good choice, but unless R turnout is very good, I think Shapiro beats him

[KaiserDave]

Ughhh no run for Governor
We need Shapiro for Senate

[KaiserDave]

I’m still on board with Reschenthaler, because the others are too moderate for me.

As Reschenthaler's constituent, you do NOT want this guy in the U.S. Senate.

He seems like the PA version of Mike Gallagher. It's not like we're talking about Senator Doug Mastriano here, are we?

https://twitter.com/GReschenthaler/status/1346868343295389704

Truly a sane Republican

[KaiserDave]

I’m still on board with Reschenthaler, because the others are too moderate for me.

As Reschenthaler's constituent, you do NOT want this guy in the U.S. Senate.

He seems like the PA version of Mike Gallagher. It's not like we're talking about Senator Doug Mastriano here, are we?

https://twitter.com/GReschenthaler/status/1346868343295389704

Truly a sane Republican

That's not much different than what we hear Ron DeSantis and Dan Crenshaw talk about. That doesn't bother me.

Sad

[KaiserDave]

https://twitter.com/RyanCostello/status/1347618307403362307

I'm crossing Costello of the list of serious candidates

He's not winning the nomination, and if he did, he'd collapse with the base.

Serious candidates don't desperately post attention seeking tweets

[KaiserDave]

Anyone else think Shapiro would be better for senate and Fetterman for governor or is that just me?

Agreed completely

[KaiserDave]

Fetterman and Shapiro are great candidates. Fetterman has run for Senate previously so I think he is kind of doing a "revenge tour" as it were by running for this seat again. Shapiro has been a brilliant AG and seems to have masterful command of PA-specific laws, which would aid him well as Governor. Not to say that Fetterman doesn't and he has absolutely built his brand around being "The Big Dude from Braddock" but he seems to have a much greater focus on a national agenda--M4A, legal weed, etc.--than Shapiro does. They're both great future candidates for POTUS as well

I've always thought this about Shapiro so I'm happy others agree. In the event of a Democratic defeat in 2024. Shapiro 2028!

[KaiserDave]

Cartwright seems like a better bet at this point

It would probably be smarter to elevate Cartwright given the state of his district, and I like him, but I doubt he beats Fetterman in a primary. The Scranton area can't exactly compete with Philadelphia or Pittsburgh.

[KaiserDave]

Cartwright seems like a better bet at this point

It would probably be smarter to elevate Cartwright given the state of his district, and I like him, but I doubt he beats Fetterman in a primary. The Scranton area can't exactly compete with Philadelphia or Pittsburgh.

Fetterman isn't going to be the candidate of choice for Philly or its suburbs; he'll get killed there in the primary.  I'm not saying Cartwright will do any better, but the point stands.  I also don't think it's clear that Fetterman would wipe the floor with Cartwright in the Pittsburgh area.  He might, but it's not a given.  Lamb would certainly beat Fetterman there if he runs.  Fetterman is also pretty untested and while he may well prove to be a really strong candidate, right now there's not much to back up all the hype. 

You're right, but I don't think Fetterman is going to get a substantial challenge. Shapiro, darling of the Philadelphia suburbs is probably going for the governorship. Lamb I don't buy is running, and maybe Houlahan runs, but I don't think she can beat Fetterman. Cartwright's base is the Scranton area, and I don't buy that he could draw serious support in Philadelphia or Pittsburgh.

Fetterman running probably means Wolf is behind him privately anyway.

[KaiserDave]

Wasn't Lamb's house seat closer than people expected?

He's also of the age where he could easily jump to another state wide office later on, or just retire and wait for it to come up...

Lamb should try and go for AG when Shapiro (hopefully) is elected Governor.

[KaiserDave]

Wasn't Lamb's house seat closer than people expected?

He's also of the age where he could easily jump to another state wide office later on, or just retire and wait for it to come up...

Lamb should try and go for AG when Shapiro (hopefully) is elected Governor.

Too much of a downgrade for Lamb. I assume he'd only take that post as a last resort.

Thoughts on a Cartwright Senate campaign?

[KaiserDave]

Cartwright seems like a better bet at this point

It would probably be smarter to elevate Cartwright given the state of his district, and I like him, but I doubt he beats Fetterman in a primary. The Scranton area can't exactly compete with Philadelphia or Pittsburgh.

Fetterman isn't going to be the candidate of choice for Philly or its suburbs; he'll get killed there in the primary.  I'm not saying Cartwright will do any better, but the point stands.  I also don't think it's clear that Fetterman would wipe the floor with Cartwright in the Pittsburgh area.  He might, but it's not a given.  Lamb would certainly beat Fetterman there if he runs.  Fetterman is also pretty untested and while he may well prove to be a really strong candidate, right now there's not much to back up all the hype. 

You're right, but I don't think Fetterman is going to get a substantial challenge. Shapiro, darling of the Philadelphia suburbs is probably going for the governorship. Lamb I don't buy is running, and maybe Houlahan runs, but I don't think she can beat Fetterman. Cartwright's base is the Scranton area, and I don't buy that he could draw serious support in Philadelphia or Pittsburgh.

Fetterman running probably means Wolf is behind him privately anyway.

Houlahan would wipe the floor with Fetterman in a one on one primary.  Also, I see no reason to think Wolf is supporting Fetterman, I think read that they don’t even get along very well (but don’t quote me on that).

That seems rather confident about Houlahan. Fetterman has the name recognition and almost certainly a fundraising advantage. And he has the advantage of having been elected statewide over her. I don’t see much reason to believe that she’d be a particularly strong candidate or that she’s even considering running at all. Also Wolf and Fetterman do seem like they get along pretty well, at least compared to Stack.

Well, Houlahan would clean up in the Philly burbs and Philly, that alone would kill Fetterman in a one on one primary.  Fetterman, Cartwright, and Lamb all need a 3-4 person field and/or multiple strong Philly area candidates.  Also, not convinced Fetterman will have a massive fundraising advantage or that most people in PA know who the Lt. Governor is

Based on the last 48 hours he would absolutely have a fundraising edge.