PA-SN 2022 megathread: Shrek vs. The Wizard of Oz

[Not Me, Us]

Lean R. Biden only won here by about 1%; I think Fitzpatrick would be the GOP's strongest candidate, and they needn't worry about sacrificing a House seat.

Well, if we're going off of this year, then Shapiro should be the SEN candidate then, since he outperformed Biden by nearly 4% with record GOP turnout.

But yes, realistically, Fitz is probably the best person the GOP has statewide. Their bench is pretty awful.

They did pick up two statewide offices this year, so one of them could run.

[Not Me, Us]

You guys are so tiring with this shoddy broad brushed analysis.

1. Yes we are not going back to Paul Ryan and Jeb Bush, secure borders and some level of trade skepticism are a given but their is a wide gulf between that statement and saying that only Don Jr can get nominated. There will be a return to a greater level of professionalism and competence. Saying these things, saying that neoliberal GOP is dead and saying their will be a greater establishment influence are not incompatible.

2. All this talk of bench this and bench that, nobody is going to care they their is a super sexy, super special, super awesome bench of unbeatable titans. The courtyard is filled with the corpses of many D's political careers after this forum dubbed them as amazeballs candidates. There are plenty of GOP candidates in this state beyond just Fitzpatrick, especially McSwain and Defoor.

William McSwain is a total joke. I agree with you about DeFoor though, he has a real future.

[Not Me, Us]

My favorite politician in the country and the strongest possible candidate. He’s one of only a few truly good, honest people in politics, and I can’t wait to volunteer for his campaign. No better man than Fetterman!

[Not Me, Us]

Is there a consensus on the R nominee?

Former Rep. Ryan Costello is making noise about running, but probably won't get through the primary. Reps. Brian Fitzpatrick and Guy Reschenthaler are probably going to run, with Reschenthaler starting as the favorite in the primary.

[Not Me, Us]

https://twitter.com/JohnFetterman/status/1358776958042181635

Fetterman officially IN! Endorsed!

[Not Me, Us]

Shapiro out:

https://twitter.com/ElectionCenter_/status/1362139784001376256

Fully expected. I think he wants to avoid a potentially messy primary and knows that he won't face any real opposition in the gubernatorial primary, while the Senate one is probably going to be pretty crowded.

[Not Me, Us]

Shapiro out:

https://twitter.com/ElectionCenter_/status/1362139784001376256

Yeah, because he's running for Governor

I cannot wait

Yeah, Shapiro's pretty awesome. I just hope he announces sooner rather than later to clear the field.

[Not Me, Us]

Dang, I was hoping to avoid a divisive primary. My issue is honestly that I like both Fetterman and Kenyatta so much that I want to vote for both. I really wish Kenyatta had run for LG or something instead. Still with Fetterman for the moment, but I really like both, so my mind isn't completely made up yet.

[Not Me, Us]

Considering Pennsylvania hasn't had a black statewide politican of prominence in a long time (if ever? besides like Auditor General or something), this would be huge For Kenyatta. That could work in his favor.

Don't get the hype about Cartwright. Yeah, he did great in his district, but that's more reason for him to STAY there, b/c we'd lose that seat then if he'd lose. And I don't see Cartwright performing any different than someone like Lamb statewide. People may hate Lamb here for some reason, but PA is still very much a tossup, so I think he'd be an Ossoff-type statewide candidate (and I mean that in a good way)

I'm still not convinced Lamb will jump in though. Would make sense for him to wait for Attorney General, no?

I'm gonna be honest, I'd rather lose with Fetterman, Cartwright, or Kenyatta than win with Lamb. I cannot handle another Sinema sabotaging the Democratic agenda at every opportunity for "bipartisanship" points back home.

[Not Me, Us]

It’s not like Sinema has ever “sabotaged” the Democratic agenda either.

I'm gonna hard disagree here. Her weird obsession for maintaining the filibuster has absolutely hindered Democratic policy goals. Plus, she has killed using reconciliation for increasing the minimum wage. Manchin has done these as well, but he's the best we'll ever get out of WV. Sinema doesn't need to be as conservative as she is to win, Mark Kelly has shown that.

[Not Me, Us]

This would potentially make 3 SEPA candidates vs Fetterman.

Would this actually be good for Fetterman in the end? As in, is a modern-day Democratic primary really likely to end up dividing geographically/regionally rather than ideologically?

In PA, it is definitely east v west. This isn't even limited to dems. Look at the 2018 R Senate primary.

I think this factor can be specifically pronounced depending on the candidate. A huge part of Fetterman's political identity is rooted in Western PA as a Mayor of a working-class former steel town. That can resonate a lot more with WEPA voters than SEPA.

[Not Me, Us]

So now this leaves outstanding questions on Arkoosh (who I read is preparing to imminently announce a run for Senate, though I can't remember where I read that--I'll try to find a source if I can), Boyle, Houlahan, Wild, Lamb (who has expressed interest in running), Kenney, maybe Sestak, maybe Innamorato, maybe Fiedler, maybe Gym, maybe Lee, I mean that's a crazy amount of candidates to have for just one seat. You'd think that at least a couple of the smaller fish among those names would either run for LG or just sit this one out altogether, but it does seem like a lot of folks are looking at this like their only shot to elevate for quite some time.

Pardon my ignorance, but who is Gym? I've tried googling around but can't find anything. Thought this might be a nickname for Jim Kenney (in the way that people call Jim Jordan "Gym" - though that's more due to the wrestling issues) but you listed Kenney separately so feels like that's not it.

There is a Philly Councilmember called Helen Gym. It's a Korean name.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Helen_Gym

Ah, thanks. Hadn't seen her name on any of the lists or other speculation

I wouldn't expect her to run. Besides, isn't she a member of the Working Families Party and not a Dem?

[Not Me, Us]

Why haven't any serious Republicans actually announced yet?

Honestly, I'm not sure. I'm sure we'll get at least one or two announcements by the end of March, it's still pretty early.

[Not Me, Us]

No clue as to how much pull Rendell still has (particularly in Philly, if anywhere), but if anybody does actually care about his endorsement, Fetterman has it (& this is notably after Rendell was obviously unhappy about Fetterman running back when Rendell was literally the chair of McGinty's 2016 campaign).

Interesting. I believe Rendell endorsed Fetterman in 2018 as well. It's especially odd given how moderate hero-y he's been.

[Not Me, Us]

I wonder what Fetterman/his allies offered him.  I mean, the dude was presumably bought off somehow.

Fetterman does sit on the Board of Pardons...

[Not Me, Us]

I wonder what Fetterman/his allies offered him.  I mean, the dude was presumably bought off somehow.

Fetterman does sit on the Board of Pardons...

Ok yeah that's seems like a huge conflict of interestes, he needs to recuse himself from that like asap.

Relax, I was joking. This guy isn't up for a pardon anyway, and I doubt he ever will be.

[Not Me, Us]

I honestly have no idea why she's running. But if she can help split the Eastern PA vote and allow Fetterman to win, then I'm all for it.

[Not Me, Us]

Good Politico article about Fetterman and his campaign: https://www.politico.com/news/magazine/2021/04/16/john-fetterman-profile-2022-senate-politics-pennsylvania-481259

I think it's a pretty fair assessment of Fetterman's strengths and weaknesses as a candidate. The points about Fetterman's weak relationships with progressive groups is an interesting one, and one I can attest to, even as a supporter. A few weeks ago, there an organizing meeting for Our Revolution PA which I was a part of. Larry Krasner gave a quick speech, and Malcolm Kenyatta and another Senate candidate named Alex Khalil were both in the Zoom call live (Kenyatta gave a very good speech). But Fetterman wasn't there in-person, he only had a quick pre-recorded message. It isn't a big deal for me, but it did seem like Kenyatta cared a lot more about connecting with activists than Fetterman.

[Not Me, Us]

Urgent update: the Fettermans were in Lancaster today and I just drove around the city for 45 minutes trying to find them but was unsuccessful. This concludes this urgent update.

They were? If I weren't in DC right now I might've done the same thing.

[Not Me, Us]

Parnell is not a strong candidate. He has no experience and no name recognition. That being said, if he makes it to the general, he's more or less a generic R. I'm not convinced the R nominee really matters unless it's a particularly atrocious candidate. I think Parnell has as good of a chance as most other Republicans.

[Not Me, Us]

ANOTHER WFP socialist who wants to defund the police.
https://mobile.twitter.com/WorkingFamilies/status/1362569864297259010
Safe R.

Look, I’m the guy who called Nina Turner a radical socialist. But Kenyatta isn’t a radical socialist. He’s just a Warren Progressive type

He was a pretty ardent Biden supporter in the primary too

This and electability concerns are the reasons I'm supporting Fetterman. I like Kenyatta, but it's weird that he would support progressive policy while also being strongly for Biden over Bernie or Warren. It makes me think his beliefs aren't that genuine.

[Not Me, Us]

I'll echo others' opinions that Lamb really wouldn't be that bad. I don't buy that he would vote like Manchin or Sinema. I would rate Lamb as the favorite for the time being, but Fetterman is obviously still very competitive, and Arkoosh stands to benefit the most from a WEPA vote split. Unfortunately, I think Kenyatta stands pretty much no chance right now. His fundraising has been pretty bad so far and I don't think he'll be able to effectively compete with the money Fetterman, Arkoosh, and Lamb will have. If I were Kenyatta, I'd seriously consider dropping out and running for LG instead. That race is wide open and would have the added benefit of letting vote for both Fetterman and Kenyatta.

[Not Me, Us]

This would be a real liability in the general, assuming Parnell makes it that far. The race would remain a toss-up though, I’m not really convinced the nominees for either party matter much barring a Roy Moore situation.

[Not Me, Us]

How did none of this come out during Parnell's Congressional run?

Anyway, if Parnell is the nominee, this race is likely D. People in this thread seem to think that PA is like Alabama, which I assure you is not the case. PA Rs need to stem the bleeding with voters in the Philly suburbs, and Parnell would be absolutely toxic to suburbanites.

[Not Me, Us]

https://twitter.com/PascrellforNJ/status/1465771237574156289?t=Y3us-CIchsvqS5UCx...

New Jersey's Progressive Fighter. Honestly, I think New Jersey Democrats should shut up.

I think you should take your own advice.