PA-SN 2022 megathread: Shrek vs. The Wizard of Oz

[Tekken_Guy]

You guys are so tiring with this shoddy broad brushed analysis.

1. Yes we are not going back to Paul Ryan and Jeb Bush, secure borders and some level of trade skepticism are a given but their is a wide gulf between that statement and saying that only Don Jr can get nominated. There will be a return to a greater level of professionalism and competence. Saying these things, saying that neoliberal GOP is dead and saying their will be a greater establishment influence are not incompatible.

2. All this talk of bench this and bench that, nobody is going to care they their is a super sexy, super special, super awesome bench of unbeatable titans. The courtyard is filled with the corpses of many D's political careers after this forum dubbed them as amazeballs candidates. There are plenty of GOP candidates in this state beyond just Fitzpatrick, especially McSwain and Defoor.

William McSwain is a total joke. I agree with you about DeFoor though, he has a real future.

Definitely too soon for him to run in 2022. He should wait until maybe 2026 for governor if a Dem wins or 2030 otherwise.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Dems are favored in WI and PA and AZ, NH and NV due to the fact D's will reelect or elect Dem Govs in those states. NC and GA are pure Tossups

The only Gov races Rs are favored to defeat Gov Laura Kelly, KS went right in 2020

[Southern Senator North Carolina Yankee]

Dems are favored in WI and PA and AZ, NH and NV due to the fact D's will reelect or elect Dem Govs in those states. NC and GA are pure Tossups

The only Gov races Rs are favored to defeat Gov Laura Kelly, KS went right in 2020

Open seat PA Governor elections have for decades gone to the party not controlling the White House and PA is much more Republican then it was back then. PA also arguably went right in 2020.

[Southern Senator North Carolina Yankee]

You guys are so tiring with this shoddy broad brushed analysis.

1. Yes we are not going back to Paul Ryan and Jeb Bush, secure borders and some level of trade skepticism are a given but their is a wide gulf between that statement and saying that only Don Jr can get nominated. There will be a return to a greater level of professionalism and competence. Saying these things, saying that neoliberal GOP is dead and saying their will be a greater establishment influence are not incompatible.

2. All this talk of bench this and bench that, nobody is going to care they their is a super sexy, super special, super awesome bench of unbeatable titans. The courtyard is filled with the corpses of many D's political careers after this forum dubbed them as amazeballs candidates. There are plenty of GOP candidates in this state beyond just Fitzpatrick, especially McSwain and Defoor.

William McSwain is a total joke. I agree with you about DeFoor though, he has a real future.

Heard the same about Toomey twelve years ago from a D-PA poster, look how that turned out.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Dems are favored in WI and PA and AZ, NH and NV due to the fact D's will reelect or elect Dem Govs in those states. NC and GA are pure Tossups

The only Gov races Rs are favored to defeat Gov Laura Kelly, KS went right in 2020

Open seat PA Governor elections have for decades gone to the party not controlling the White House and PA is much more Republican then it was back then. PA also arguably went right in 2020.

Fettermam is an ALL STAR and will be elected Gov or Shapiro, Erie County, PA went from Red to Blue just like it did in 2008/12

The last R to be elected Gov was Corbett and he was a disaster, Wolf won by 17 pts over Wagner im 2018.

DeWine, DeSantis, Reynolds, Kemp and the pickup in KS will be the bright spots for Govs in 2022

[GALeftist]

Dems are favored in WI and PA and AZ, NH and NV due to the fact D's will reelect or elect Dem Govs in those states. NC and GA are pure Tossups

The only Gov races Rs are favored to defeat Gov Laura Kelly, KS went right in 2020

Open seat PA Governor elections have for decades gone to the party not controlling the White House and PA is much more Republican then it was back then. PA also arguably went right in 2020.

Feels a little disingenuous to say that when Wolf unseated an incumbent in 2014, of all years. I recognize that Corbett was awful but people hated Snyder's guts too and he still squeaked it out. I think the GOP might be favored but they would be foolish to take this race for granted.

[Southern Senator North Carolina Yankee]

Dems are favored in WI and PA and AZ, NH and NV due to the fact D's will reelect or elect Dem Govs in those states. NC and GA are pure Tossups

The only Gov races Rs are favored to defeat Gov Laura Kelly, KS went right in 2020

Open seat PA Governor elections have for decades gone to the party not controlling the White House and PA is much more Republican then it was back then. PA also arguably went right in 2020.

Feels a little disingenuous to say that when Wolf unseated an incumbent in 2014, of all years. I recognize that Corbett was awful but people hated Snyder's guts too and he still squeaked it out. I think the GOP might be favored but they would be foolish to take this race for granted.

I said open seat for a reason. Please read more carefully next time and don't accuse rs of taking this for granted when a bunch of d posters are already measuring the drapes bc of their super sexy special awesome "all star" bench.

[Boss_Rahm]

One way or another, the results of redistricting will leave their mark on this race. Lamb, Cartwright, and Fitzpatrick could all conceivably see unfriendly voters added to their districts, and Republicans will likely lose a district in the middle of the state. Any of them could decide to throw their hat in the ring. My only strong hunch is that Fitzpatrick would have a hard time winning a Republican primary.

[RussFeingoldWasRobbed]

TossuI. But republicans will probably win. Biden midterm will be brutal

[GALeftist]

Dems are favored in WI and PA and AZ, NH and NV due to the fact D's will reelect or elect Dem Govs in those states. NC and GA are pure Tossups

The only Gov races Rs are favored to defeat Gov Laura Kelly, KS went right in 2020

Open seat PA Governor elections have for decades gone to the party not controlling the White House and PA is much more Republican then it was back then. PA also arguably went right in 2020.

Feels a little disingenuous to say that when Wolf unseated an incumbent in 2014, of all years. I recognize that Corbett was awful but people hated Snyder's guts too and he still squeaked it out. I think the GOP might be favored but they would be foolish to take this race for granted.

I said open seat for a reason. Please read more carefully next time and don't accuse rs of taking this for granted when a bunch of d posters are already measuring the drapes bc of their super sexy special awesome "all star" bench.

That's why I said disingenuous instead of wrong. You are correct that open seats have tended to go to the party not in the White House, but everything's true until it's not; until 2014 you wouldn't have needed to add the open caveat. Perhaps Ds are being overconfident, but that doesn't mean that any point made against Democrats is automatically a good one.

[Southern Senator North Carolina Yankee]

Dems are favored in WI and PA and AZ, NH and NV due to the fact D's will reelect or elect Dem Govs in those states. NC and GA are pure Tossups

The only Gov races Rs are favored to defeat Gov Laura Kelly, KS went right in 2020

Open seat PA Governor elections have for decades gone to the party not controlling the White House and PA is much more Republican then it was back then. PA also arguably went right in 2020.

Feels a little disingenuous to say that when Wolf unseated an incumbent in 2014, of all years. I recognize that Corbett was awful but people hated Snyder's guts too and he still squeaked it out. I think the GOP might be favored but they would be foolish to take this race for granted.

I said open seat for a reason. Please read more carefully next time and don't accuse rs of taking this for granted when a bunch of d posters are already measuring the drapes bc of their super sexy special awesome "all star" bench.

That's why I said disingenuous instead of wrong. You are correct that open seats have tended to go to the party not in the White House, but everything's true until it's not; until 2014 you wouldn't have needed to add the open caveat. Perhaps Ds are being overconfident, but that doesn't mean that any point made against Democrats is automatically a good one.

I am restoring balance to the discussion after innumerable  declarative proclamations of D victory in PA based on crappy analysis itself. You look past all that and take issue with what I said but not the likes of Kanye/OC. Corbett being a crappy Governor and getting his clocked cleaned is not illustrative of anything that would help the Democrats in 2022. Rendell, Ridge and Casey Sr did a good job and were popular, Corbett tried to implement the Koch bros agenda and was a terrible salesmen for it in a state that isn't suited to that kind of Politics.

2014-2015 saw Philly suburbs reallign down ballot as  millennials have aged into becoming more reliable voters voting straight ticket D in place of their ticket splitting parents. That this happened before D strength in select places in the rest of the state did likewise for the Republicans in 2016 and 2020, and also expedited by Corbett's unpopularity is partially why Corbett lost and Ds picked up the Supreme Court in 2015.

[Yellowhammer]

Democrats looking awful confident about picking up a senate seat in a state that voted for Joe Biden by 1% in a D +~4 year, and where Republicans just picked up two row offices (one of these against an incumbent dem).

[GALeftist]

Dems are favored in WI and PA and AZ, NH and NV due to the fact D's will reelect or elect Dem Govs in those states. NC and GA are pure Tossups

The only Gov races Rs are favored to defeat Gov Laura Kelly, KS went right in 2020

Open seat PA Governor elections have for decades gone to the party not controlling the White House and PA is much more Republican then it was back then. PA also arguably went right in 2020.

Feels a little disingenuous to say that when Wolf unseated an incumbent in 2014, of all years. I recognize that Corbett was awful but people hated Snyder's guts too and he still squeaked it out. I think the GOP might be favored but they would be foolish to take this race for granted.

I said open seat for a reason. Please read more carefully next time and don't accuse rs of taking this for granted when a bunch of d posters are already measuring the drapes bc of their super sexy special awesome "all star" bench.

That's why I said disingenuous instead of wrong. You are correct that open seats have tended to go to the party not in the White House, but everything's true until it's not; until 2014 you wouldn't have needed to add the open caveat. Perhaps Ds are being overconfident, but that doesn't mean that any point made against Democrats is automatically a good one.

I am restoring balance to the discussion after innumerable  declarative proclamations of D victory in PA based on crappy analysis itself. You look past all that and take issue with what I said but not the likes of Kanye/OC. Corbett being a crappy Governor and getting his clocked cleaned is not illustrative of anything that would help the Democrats in 2022. Rendell, Ridge and Casey Sr did a good job and were popular, Corbett tried to implement the Koch bros agenda and was a terrible salesmen for it in a state that isn't suited to that kind of Politics.

2014-2015 saw Philly suburbs reallign down ballot as  millennials have aged into becoming more reliable voters voting straight ticket D in place of their ticket splitting parents. That this happened before D strength in select places in the rest of the state did likewise for the Republicans in 2016 and 2020, and also expedited by Corbett's unpopularity is partially why Corbett lost and Ds picked up the Supreme Court in 2015.

OC is OC, vro. He's just vibing. I will concede, though, that Democrats are probably a tad overconfident about this race; the bench helps, but Democratic midterms are rarely good news. Tossup at this point, I'd guess.

[Citizen (The) Doctor]

Fetterman would be amazing on the federal level. I'd love to see him in the Senate.

[VAR]

coolface thread, but whatever

https://twitter.com/RyanDeto/status/1333090087672950785

[SnowLabrador]

Parnell might be a strong candidate. He came within a few points of Lamb.

[Flyersfan232]

You guys are so tiring with this shoddy broad brushed analysis.

1. Yes we are not going back to Paul Ryan and Jeb Bush, secure borders and some level of trade skepticism are a given but their is a wide gulf between that statement and saying that only Don Jr can get nominated. There will be a return to a greater level of professionalism and competence. Saying these things, saying that neoliberal GOP is dead and saying their will be a greater establishment influence are not incompatible.

2. All this talk of bench this and bench that, nobody is going to care they their is a super sexy, super special, super awesome bench of unbeatable titans. The courtyard is filled with the corpses of many D's political careers after this forum dubbed them as amazeballs candidates. There are plenty of GOP candidates in this state beyond just Fitzpatrick, especially McSwain and Defoor.

William McSwain is a total joke. I agree with you about DeFoor though, he has a real future.

Definitely too soon for him to run in 2022. He should wait until maybe 2026 for governor if a Dem wins or 2030 otherwise.

2026 could be hurt if a republican wins in 2022

[Tekken_Guy]

You guys are so tiring with this shoddy broad brushed analysis.

1. Yes we are not going back to Paul Ryan and Jeb Bush, secure borders and some level of trade skepticism are a given but their is a wide gulf between that statement and saying that only Don Jr can get nominated. There will be a return to a greater level of professionalism and competence. Saying these things, saying that neoliberal GOP is dead and saying their will be a greater establishment influence are not incompatible.

2. All this talk of bench this and bench that, nobody is going to care they their is a super sexy, super special, super awesome bench of unbeatable titans. The courtyard is filled with the corpses of many D's political careers after this forum dubbed them as amazeballs candidates. There are plenty of GOP candidates in this state beyond just Fitzpatrick, especially McSwain and Defoor.

William McSwain is a total joke. I agree with you about DeFoor though, he has a real future.

Definitely too soon for him to run in 2022. He should wait until maybe 2026 for governor if a Dem wins or 2030 otherwise.

2026 could be hurt if a republican wins in 2022

I said "if a Dem wins".

[tosk]

coolface thread, but whatever

https://twitter.com/RyanDeto/status/1333090087672950785

I'm of the opinion republicans should learn from democrats lessons and *not* run failed house candidates for senate.

[Mike Thick]

https://twitter.com/catargetbot/status/1335494239715659777?s=21

McSwain domain name registered

[Roll Roons]

https://twitter.com/RyanCostello/status/1347361567101378560

This may be one of the first tests of a post-Trump GOP. If Costello runs, I'm on board with him. In any case, I think the moderates (Costello, Dent, Fitzpatrick) will coalesce around one of the three.

[Tekken_Guy]

https://twitter.com/RyanCostello/status/1347361567101378560

This may be one of the first tests of a post-Trump GOP. If Costello runs, I'm on board with him. In any case, I think the moderates (Costello, Dent, Fitzpatrick) will coalesce around one of the three.

I’m still on board with Reschenthaler, because the others are too moderate for me.

[Secretary of State Liberal Hack]

https://twitter.com/JohnFetterman/status/1347534306110009346?s=20
Fetterman is going for it.

[Mr.Phips]

https://twitter.com/JohnFetterman/status/1347534306110009346?s=20
Fetterman is going for it.

Good he’s the best candidate.

[No War, but the War on Christmas]

https://twitter.com/JohnFetterman/status/1347534306110009346?s=20
Fetterman is going for it.

Enthusiastically endorsed.