COVID-19 Megathread 5: The Trumps catch COVID-19

[Darthpi – Anti-Florida Activist]

Trump has stopped taking hydroxychloroquine btw:

https://www.nbcnews.com/politics/donald-trump/trump-says-he-s-no-longer-taking-hydroxychloroquine-n1214301

Call me a conspiracy theorist if you want, but I'm firm in my belief he was never taking it to begin with.

[It’s so Joever]

A country full of stupidity:

For the past 6 weeks we've seen a parade of these images and references to things like Georgia marching its citizens off to the morgue by opening up. The death rate in the US continues to go down, young people do not die from this, and things like 'we are so screwed' needlessly fear-mongers a population that is exhausted from the past quarters social and economic malaise.

Grow up.

You are kidding me.

Going to an overcrowded pool just for fun has nothing to do with the economy and you damn know it. It’s people like you who make it much more difficult to reopen. Instead of actually listening and social distancing+wearing masks while going back to work, you “grown-up” children demand to have your cake and eat it as well.
It’s absolutely ridiculous and honestly disgusting.
You want to reopen the economy, but don’t want to take the steps to make reopening safe and effective. This isn’t pro-economic growth, this is pro-death at its finest.

Now we aren’t even sacrificing grandma for the DOW anymore, we are sacrificing her so we can swim with a bunch of strangers in a pool.

[Bandit3 the Worker]

Here's a very sensible article outlining the leftist case against lockdowns...

https://medium.com/@ptomng/a-leftist-case-for-rethinking-the-wisdom-of-lockdowns-dbecc338f934

[💥💥 brandon bro (he/him/his)]

Snake's post is weird and bad for other reasons but he is right in one sense: people should really be asking themselves why states that opened up early (like GA) haven't seen NY-like explosions in cases like many people were predicting, and what we can learn from that.

Like, at this point I'm fairly confident that stuff like Lake of the Ozarks isn't going to cause case explosions the same way that the Florida beaches being open hasn't lead to explosions. It's bad because it's slowing the decline in cases but it's not worth being hysterically upset over.

[It’s so Joever]

Snake's post is weird and bad for other reasons but he is right in one sense: people should really be asking themselves why states that opened up early (like GA) haven't seen NY-like explosions in cases like many people were predicting, and what we can learn from that.

Like, at this point I'm fairly confident that stuff like Lake of the Ozarks isn't going to cause case explosions the same way that the Florida beaches being open hasn't lead to explosions. It's bad because it's slowing the decline in cases but it's not worth being hysterically upset over.

It’s honestly likely a mix of weather conditions (heat and humidity hinders the spread) and just plain luck.
If Australia sees an increase in cases after reopening while European countries don’t, we will know this is definitely a virus that follows a seasonal pattern. It also could just be that explosions take time to occur. Think about it, cases typically take anywhere around 7-14 days to even show, and testing takes more time both to get a test and for results to be processed. Considering how many cases in the US there already are, and how long it takes for these things to occur, it is possible (but unlikely in the case of Georgia) that we haven’t seen it yet. There was a tiny recent uptick in cases per day in GA according to NYT, while I think it’s just a blip, if it does grow, maybe that’s why.
Finally, these events such as the Ozark pool and the beaches are over reported. The vast majority of people care about this virus and still are at least trying to stay safe.

[GeorgiaModerate]

https://twitter.com/business/status/1265017821995687936

Point/Counterpoint:

https://twitter.com/MaxCRoser/status/1264981208645206020

[Absentee Voting Ghost of Ruin]

Snake's post is weird and bad for other reasons but he is right in one sense: people should really be asking themselves why states that opened up early (like GA) haven't seen NY-like explosions in cases like many people were predicting, and what we can learn from that.

Like, at this point I'm fairly confident that stuff like Lake of the Ozarks isn't going to cause case explosions the same way that the Florida beaches being open hasn't lead to explosions. It's bad because it's slowing the decline in cases but it's not worth being hysterically upset over.

Georgia was reported to be undercounting a month ago. Is there any reason to believe that has changed?

[Fmr. Gov. NickG]

https://twitter.com/business/status/1265017821995687936

Point/Counterpoint:

https://twitter.com/MaxCRoser/status/1264981208645206020

UK deaths per capita are still a bit higher than the US, but they are headed downward much more rapidly than the US.  The weekly average as of yesterday was 308 deaths, but this has consistently been dropping 90 deaths/week for the last five weeks.  It is not hard to imagine this will be below 50/day by June 15.

[GeorgiaModerate]

https://twitter.com/RiegerReport/status/1265035261387423753

[Grassroots]

Awesome numbers for today.

https://twitter.com/NateSilver538/status/1265032521567404032

[100% pro-life no matter what]

Awesome numbers for today.

https://twitter.com/NateSilver538/status/1265032521567404032

Those numbers look great!

Cases have been kind of high in Tennessee the last few days (462 new cases today), but we also had a ton of new tests today, so our % positive rate was just 3.65%.  However, it was regularly lower than that not long ago.

I guess the overall graph is pretty flat, but the next week or so will show if there is a slight uptick.  We're a month into reopening though, so this would correspond to later stages of it now, not the initial reopening.  But, they also sometimes do focused testing, so it's hard to know what daily changes really reflect.

https://www.tn.gov/health/cedep/ncov/data/epi-curves.html

[It’s so Joever]

In a bit of good news today, the State of Colorado has only reported 95 new cases today.
This is the lowest number for the State since mid-March and while Monday usually is a low day here for some reason, it still is a piece of good news for the entire State.
If these trends continue up to next week, I will eat my crow for warning against reopening in our State.

[It’s so Joever]

https://www.npr.org/2020/05/15/856293764/french-drug-giant-sanofi-takes-heat-after-suggesting-u-s-may-get-1st-vaccine-acc
Great news for the US

The French Government is acting ridiculous. As the most hit country in the World right now, it makes sense to give the vaccine to the Americans first. If America did the same and the circumstances were reversed, the media would have a field day.
(Although to be honest, given how long a vaccine will take, America probably won’t be the most hard hit by then.)

[Grassroots]

https://www.npr.org/2020/05/15/856293764/french-drug-giant-sanofi-takes-heat-after-suggesting-u-s-may-get-1st-vaccine-acc
Great news for the US

The French Government is acting ridiculous. As the most hit country in the World right now, it makes sense to give the vaccine to the Americans first. If America did the same and the circumstances were reversed, the media would have a field day.
(Although to be honest, given how long a vaccine will take, America probably won’t be the most hard hit by then.)

Brazil will be the hardest hit, without question. I actually think at the end of the day they might end up with more deaths than us, if not cases too.

[#TheShadowyAbyss]

While not entirely relevant to the discussion, if a vaccine is produced in another country it should be available to that country first, especially of a foreign company manufactures it and is tied to that nation. The United States already has like 10 vaccine candidates

[It’s so Joever]

https://www.npr.org/2020/05/15/856293764/french-drug-giant-sanofi-takes-heat-after-suggesting-u-s-may-get-1st-vaccine-acc
Great news for the US

The French Government is acting ridiculous. As the most hit country in the World right now, it makes sense to give the vaccine to the Americans first. If America did the same and the circumstances were reversed, the media would have a field day.
(Although to be honest, given how long a vaccine will take, America probably won’t be the most hard hit by then.)

Brazil will be the hardest hit, without question. I actually think at the end of the day they might end up with more deaths than us, if not cases too.

Brazil is possible given the government and context, although India/Mexico also seem like possible contenders in the future.

[GeorgiaModerate]

https://twitter.com/zerwekh/status/1265044004397371393

[GeorgiaModerate]

https://twitter.com/brithume/status/1265045009323241472

[Dr. Arch]

https://twitter.com/zerwekh/status/1265044004397371393

Looks like the country administration needs to "grow up." 

[lfromnj]

https://twitter.com/CNN/status/1264980497849036801

lol

[Absentee Voting Ghost of Ruin]

https://twitter.com/brithume/status/1265045009323241472

Trump is quaking in his lifts with ninja elf terminator Biden coming for him.

(And is that facemask dyed vantablack or what?)

[Dr. Arch]

The updated numbers for COVID-19 in the U.S. are in for 5/25 per: https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/us/

I'm keeping track of these updates daily and updating at the end of the day, whenever all states finish reporting for that day.

Δ Change: Day-by-day Growth or Decline or COVID-19 Spread/Deaths.

• IE: Are we flattening the curve enough?

Σ Increase: A day's contribution to overall percentage growth of COVID-19 cases/deaths.

• IE: What's the overall change in the total?

<Last Numbers for 3/26-3/28 in this Post>
<Last Numbers for 3/29-4/4 in this Post>
<Last Numbers for 4/5-4/11 in this Post>
<Last Numbers for 4/12-4/18 in this Post>
<Last Numbers for 4/19-4/25 in this post>
<Last Numbers for 4/26-5/2 in this post>
<Last Numbers for 5/3-5/9 in this post>

5/10: <Sunday>

• Cases: 1,367,638 (+20,329 | Δ Change: ↓20.35% | Σ Increase: ↑1.93%)
• Deaths: 80,787 (+750 | Δ Change: ↓47.27% | Σ Increase: ↑0.94%)

5/11:

• Cases: 1,385,834 (+18,196 | Δ Change: ↓10.49% | Σ Increase: ↑1.33%)
• Deaths: 81,795 (+1,008 | Δ Change: ↑34.40% | Σ Increase: ↑1.25%)

5/12:

• Cases: 1,408,155 (+22,321 | Δ Change: ↑22.67% | Σ Increase: ↑1.61%)
• Deaths: 83,377 (+1,582 | Δ Change: ↑56.94% | Σ Increase: ↑1.93%)

5/13:

• Cases: 1,430,348 (+22,193 | Δ Change: ↓0.57% | Σ Increase: ↑1.58%)
• Deaths: 85,197 (+1,820 | Δ Change: ↑15.44% | Σ Increase: ↑2.18%)

5/14:

• Cases: 1,456,828 (+26,480 | Δ Change: ↑19.32% | Σ Increase: ↑1.85%)
• Deaths: 86,901 (+1,704 | Δ Change: ↓6.37% | Σ Increase: ↑2.00%)

5/15 (Yesterday):

• Cases: 1,483,736 (+26,908 | Δ Change: ↑1.62% | Σ Increase: ↑1.85%)
• Deaths: 88,479 (+1,578 | Δ Change: ↓7.39% | Σ Increase: ↑1.82%)

5/16:

• Cases: 1,505,033 (+21,297 | Δ Change: ↓20.85% | Σ Increase: ↑1.44%)
• Deaths: 89,511 (+1,032 | Δ Change: ↓34.60% | Σ Increase: ↑1.17%)

5/17: <Sunday>

• Cases: 1,526,842 (+21,809 | Δ Change: ↑2.40% | Σ Increase: ↑1.44%)
• Deaths: 90,973 (+1,462 | Δ Change: ↑41.67% | Σ Increase: ↑1.45%)

5/18:

• Cases: 1,550,294 (+23,452 | Δ Change: ↑7.53% | Σ Increase: ↑1.54%)
• Deaths: 91,981 (+1,008 | Δ Change: ↓31.05% | Σ Increase: ↑1.11%)

5/19:

• Cases: 1,570,583 (+20,289 | Δ Change: ↓13.49% | Σ Increase: ↑1.31%)
• Deaths: 93,533 (+1,552 | Δ Change: ↑53.97% | Σ Increase: ↑1.69%)

5/20:

• Cases: 1,591,991 (+21,408 | Δ Change: ↑5.52% | Σ Increase: ↑1.36%)
• Deaths: 94,994 (+1,461 | Δ Change: ↓5.86% | Σ Increase: ↑1.56%)

5/21:

• Cases: 1,620,902 (+28,911 | Δ Change: ↑35.05% | Σ Increase: ↑1.82%)
• Deaths: 96,354 (+1,360 | Δ Change: ↓6.91% | Σ Increase: ↑1.43%)

5/22:

• Cases: 1,645,094 (+24,192 | Δ Change: ↓16.32% | Σ Increase: ↑1.49%)
• Deaths: 97,647 (+1,293 | Δ Change: ↓4.93% | Σ Increase: ↑1.34%)

5/23:

• Cases: 1,666,828 (+21,734 | Δ Change: ↓10.16% | Σ Increase: ↑1.32%)
• Deaths: 98,683 (+1,036 | Δ Change: ↓19.88% | Σ Increase: ↑1.06%)

5/24 (Yesterday): <Sunday>

• Cases: 1,686,436 (+19,608 | Δ Change: ↓9.78% | Σ Increase: ↑1.18%)
• Deaths: 99,300 (+617 | Δ Change: ↓40.44% | Σ Increase: ↑0.63%)

5/25 (Today):

• Cases: 1,706,224 (+19,788 | Δ Change: ↑0.92% | Σ Increase: ↑1.17%)
• Deaths: 99,805 (+505 | Δ Change: ↓18.15% | Σ Increase: ↑0.51%)

[Grassroots]

https://twitter.com/brithume/status/1265045009323241472

That's actually badass.

[jimrtex]

Seeing reports that several states are reporting combined antibody and PCR/viral tests. This is bad for a couple of reasons, but some people are claiming it will artificially lower the reported positive rate. I don't really understand why this would be unless there's some very big difference in who is being tested.

Seems to me like if anything combining these tests would artificially raise the positive rate, because antibody tests are essentially a record of ever having been infected while a viral test is only a record of being infected right now. So combining these tests and preventing them as viral tests would suggest that there are more infections happening right now/the last couple weeks than there really are.

Can anybody help me understand why these would lower the positive rate and not inflate it?

Texas had been combining antibody and viral tests.

Texas COVID-19 dashboard

Beginning on 5/13 they began reporting them separately. Beginning 5/19 antibody tests were removed from the denominator in calculating the positivity rate. It does not indicate whether positive antibody tests are being included in the numerator. Perhaps not, because they do not indicate a COVID-19 test.

A curiosity: They had been reporting Cases, Deaths, Active Cases, and Recovered (estimate), The estimate was apparently calculated based on a method similar to that used by Meclazine (X weeks after a case is determined, the patient is either dead or recovered).

As you would expect the sum of deaths, active cases, and recovered cases equaled precisely the total number of cases.

Now they are reporting: Reported Cases, Deaths, Active Cases (estimate), and Recovered (estimate).

The sum of deaths, active cases, and recovered, now exceed the number of reported cases.

They may be making an inference which is likely valid that there are persons who are actively infected who have not had a swab shoved up their nostril.

[Okay, maybe Mike Johnson is a competent parliamentarian.]

https://twitter.com/brithume/status/1265045009323241472

That's actually badass.

Biden should take the debate stage dressed as a plague doctor and see what happens in the polls. Thanks to negative polarization, it's not like it'll hurt.