COVID-19 Megathread 5: The Trumps catch COVID-19

[T'Chenka]

This is really really long, but Sam completely dismantles this libertarian Costco Kevin guy in a debate about whether or not having to wear masks in stores during the pandemic is too authoritarian. I put it on while I did the dishes and listened in the background. Glorious.

Best quote: "I'm not a Republican, I listen to rap music."

[Stockdale for Veep]

"Muh Freedoms!" truly is the ultimate participation trophy.

[Landslide Lyndon]

2) contact tracing with enforced mandatory self-isolation is not a realistic outcome in the U.S. or any other Western democracy, and the social/political costs of such aren’t worth the risks.

Really? It worked pretty well here.

Greece is doing less testing than Kyrgyzstan (population adjusted, Greece ranks #81 in testing; the US ranks #36, ahead of Germany and Switzerland).  

So no, “your country” isn’t doing this.  Did you even watch the video?  No country is forcibly isolating all virus contacts

We do as much testing we need. And yes, when someone tested positively there was mandatory quarantine. Not than any force was needed in 99% of cases. There were only a handful of idiots here who broke quarantine and were promptly arrested and fined.

[YE]

There's absolutely no evidence that accelerating towards herd immunity works. First of all, the virus does all sorts of unknown damage to your body, not only your lungs but cardiovascular system, nervous system, digestive system, reproductive system and mental health. Many of these effects are long term. The military is concerned enough that it is not even accepting any recruits from recoverees. It also has unknown effects on children and in areas of very high spread we have seen child mortality. It is also not known how long immunity even lasts even once you've gotten it.

Further, even in areas of very high spread like Spain and Italy, antibody tests show only 5%-10% of the population have them. That would have to be 40% to 70% to reach herd immunity. So you'd be looking at what some of the worst countries have already been through, plus another 4 to 14 times.

Then there's the fact that there are no successful examples of herd immunity. The prime argument for it is supposed to be economic, but so far Sweden has taken about the same economic hit as its neighbors despite having worse health outcomes. There is no trade off. It has nothing to do with mandates from authorities either; if the outbreak is bad enough people will simply voluntarily curtail their activity. In fact the worse the outbreak is, the longer and worse the economic damage will be (with all the consequences that of that.) Meanwhile there are countries who have reopened their economies more or less fully already, but it was due to successful containment, not herd immunity.

That leaves containment. The notion that the virus can't be contained is thus far unproven. I mean look no further than New York City, which even six weeks ago was the epicenter of the U.S. outbreak, and now is seeing steadily declining numbers on a regular basis. Obviously, the more strict you are, the faster the virus can be contained, but the idea that it absolutely requires measures that won't fly in a democratic country is off base. Not only is it possible to contain the virus, but a number of states have already done so or are the path to doing so.

This.

There’s decent evidence (based on the counties that already have been through this outbreak) that if you have the proper testing and some ability to do contract tracing and isolate the sick, the virus can be controlled once past its peak. That’s also why I’m not really concerned about a second wave or even think a vaccine is the end all be all. With that said, not everywhere appears to be on a clear downward trajectory despite the fact these areas have been on a lengthy lockdown which leads me to less confidence containment will be successful here than in other countries.

[Smeulders]

2) contact tracing with enforced mandatory self-isolation is not a realistic outcome in the U.S. or any other Western democracy, and the social/political costs of such aren’t worth the risks.

Really? It worked pretty well here.

Greece is doing less testing than Kyrgyzstan (population adjusted, Greece ranks #81 in testing; the US ranks #36, ahead of Germany and Switzerland). 

So no, “your country” isn’t doing this.  Did you even watch the video?  No country is forcibly isolating all virus contacts

Circle A represents Greece having a contact tracing system.
Circle B represents testing per capita.

As you can see from this Venn Diagram, there is no overlap.

You're not going to get a lot of mileage out of contact tracing in a country that is not testing adequately to identify the vast majority of cases (Greece has only identified 3k cases, in a country of almost 11 million).  Ramping up testing is a necessary precedent of implementing robust contact tracing (that is, assuming containment is off-the-table).  That's how the two are related.

"(Not) testing adequately to identify the vast majority of cases" depends a lot of the number of cases you have. Greece appears to have very little because they intervened early and strongly. If you have very low numbers of cases, then you have very low numbers of contacts and you do not need many tests.

You may be mistaken here because there has been a lot of talk about how testing needs to increase for contact tracing (I'm pretty sure I was involved in a few of those discussions on this thread). This point was assuming the current situation in the US and other European countries with large outbreaks. This does not necessarily hold for countries where the outbreak is much smaller.

Of course, more testing is always better. If Greece ramps up testing they can start testing even people with the slightest symptoms. They'll probably find a few more cases, prevent a few more cases down the line and save a few more lives. That doesn't mean that the current contact tracing is not sufficient to keep the outbreak under control.

[Grassroots]

I think the US just needs to continue accelerating the testing at the rate that it has been, and begin contact tracing. We can also do local restriction measures during future local flareups of the virus.

[Bandit3 the Worker]

The video about how we can end the pandemic by July 4 was another elitist bait-and-switch. I watched it only to be told that even if we follow his suggestions, the pandemic still won't be over by July 4.

What we really need to do is test everybody, and I mean everybody, ASAP.

[100% pro-life no matter what]

https://thehill.com/opinion/healthcare/499394-the-covid-19-shutdown-will-cost-americans-millions-of-years-of-life

Considering only the losses of life from missed health care and unemployment due solely to the lockdown policy, we conservatively estimate that the national lockdown is responsible for at least 700,000 lost years of life every month, or about 1.5 million so far — already far surpassing the COVID-19 total.

And this doesn't even go in to the reduction in quality of life and the increase in deaths of despair (which will not show immediately, as something like addiction leading to death takes time).

[Absentee Voting Ghost of Ruin]

The Coronavirus Is Deadliest Where Democrats Live

Democrats are far more likely to live in counties where the virus has ravaged the community, while Republicans are more likely to live in counties that have been relatively unscathed by the illness, though they are paying an economic price. Counties won by President Trump in 2016 have reported just 27 percent of the virus infections and 21 percent of the deaths — even though 45 percent of Americans live in these communities, a New York Times analysis has found.

The very real difference in death rates has helped fuel deep disagreement over the dangers of the pandemic and how the country should proceed. Right-wing media, which moved swiftly from downplaying the severity of the crisis to calling it a Democratic plot to bring down the president, has exacerbated the rift. And even as the nation’s top medical experts note the danger of easing restrictions, communities across the country are doing so, creating a patchwork of regulations, often along ideological lines.

[SnowLabrador]

The Coronavirus Is Deadliest Where Democrats Live

Democrats are far more likely to live in counties where the virus has ravaged the community, while Republicans are more likely to live in counties that have been relatively unscathed by the illness, though they are paying an economic price. Counties won by President Trump in 2016 have reported just 27 percent of the virus infections and 21 percent of the deaths — even though 45 percent of Americans live in these communities, a New York Times analysis has found.

The very real difference in death rates has helped fuel deep disagreement over the dangers of the pandemic and how the country should proceed. Right-wing media, which moved swiftly from downplaying the severity of the crisis to calling it a Democratic plot to bring down the president, has exacerbated the rift. And even as the nation’s top medical experts note the danger of easing restrictions, communities across the country are doing so, creating a patchwork of regulations, often along ideological lines.

This is why the virus helps the Republicans overall.

[Tender Branson]

People living in the Ozarks, MO have a strange way of interpreting "social distancing":



https://twitter.com/scottpasmoretv/status/1264394565861232640
https://twitter.com/BruceyD17/status/1264406101287743488

[The Free North]

A country full of stupidity:

For the past 6 weeks we've seen a parade of these images and references to things like Georgia marching its citizens off to the morgue by opening up. The death rate in the US continues to go down, young people do not die from this, and things like 'we are so screwed' needlessly fear-mongers a population that is exhausted from the past quarters social and economic malaise.

Grow up.

[Fmr. Gov. NickG]

Can anyone explain why the US has a lower death rate per capita than Italy, Spain, and the UK despite all those countries having both a lower per capita number of cases and a higher per capita number of tests?  Is it just that our poulation is younger?

[YE]

Can anyone explain why the US has a lower death rate per capita than Italy, Spain, and the UK despite all those countries having both a lower per capita number of cases and a higher per capita number of tests?  Is it just that our poulation is younger?

The US instituted lockdowns faster than other countries and lowered the amount of community spread early on. Meaning we need less testing to adequately measure the number of cases.

[lfromnj]

https://www.npr.org/2020/05/15/856293764/french-drug-giant-sanofi-takes-heat-after-suggesting-u-s-may-get-1st-vaccine-acc
Great news for the US

[Middle-aged Europe]

Trump has stopped taking hydroxychloroquine btw:

https://www.nbcnews.com/politics/donald-trump/trump-says-he-s-no-longer-taking-hydroxychloroquine-n1214301

[Mr. Reactionary]

Trump has stopped taking hydroxychloroquine btw:

https://www.nbcnews.com/politics/donald-trump/trump-says-he-s-no-longer-taking-hydroxychloroquine-n1214301

I wonder if he is going to start taking colloidal silver next? Although back in March Alex Jones said Gin and Tonic prevents corona. Trump may have to take up drinking.

[emailking]

https://thehill.com/opinion/healthcare/499394-the-covid-19-shutdown-will-cost-americans-millions-of-years-of-life

Considering only the losses of life from missed health care and unemployment due solely to the lockdown policy, we conservatively estimate that the national lockdown is responsible for at least 700,000 lost years of life every month, or about 1.5 million so far — already far surpassing the COVID-19 total.

And this doesn't even go in to the reduction in quality of life and the increase in deaths of despair (which will not show immediately, as something like addiction leading to death takes time).

Did they estimate how many millions of years of life would be lost without a lockdown?

[T'Chenka]

These morons acting like there's no pandemic have blood on their hands.

[President Johnson]

Trump has stopped taking hydroxychloroquine btw:

https://www.nbcnews.com/politics/donald-trump/trump-says-he-s-no-longer-taking-hydroxychloroquine-n1214301

I wish he'd stop talking at all. It would save lives.

[KaiserDave]

Trump has stopped taking hydroxychloroquine btw:

https://www.nbcnews.com/politics/donald-trump/trump-says-he-s-no-longer-taking-hydroxychloroquine-n1214301

I wish he'd stop talking at all. It would save lives.

Perhaps including his own

[T'Chenka]

Trudeau public service announcement to Canadians and our fellow Earth-dwellers about how to minimize the COVID-19 spread:

[GeorgiaModerate]

https://twitter.com/NateSilver538/status/1264958223074889729

[Dr. Arch]

A country full of stupidity:

For the past 6 weeks we've seen a parade of these images and references to things like Georgia marching its citizens off to the morgue by opening up. The death rate in the US continues to go down, young people do not die from this, and things like 'we are so screwed' needlessly fear-mongers a population that is exhausted from the past quarters social and economic malaise.

Grow up.

This doesn't even deserve a real response, so have a nice day and continue enshrining the ignorance that makes this country "great."

Have fun being "grown up."

[Del Tachi]

Can anyone explain why the US has a lower death rate per capita than Italy, Spain, and the UK despite all those countries having both a lower per capita number of cases and a higher per capita number of tests?  Is it just that our poulation is younger?

The U.S. has more robust healthcare infrastructure, with more ventilators/ICU beds/docs per capita than practically any European country.  Outcomes are simply better in the U.S. for this reason.

There are Italian and Spanish hospitals that are literally 400 year old buildings with terracotta floors.