COVID-19 Megathread 5: The Trumps catch COVID-19

[100% pro-life no matter what]

89 of Tennessee's 95 counties will have "the vast majority" of businesses open on May 1st, with some things set to open on April 27th.  The 6 exceptions are the Big 4 Cities plus Madison and Sullivan Counties.

https://www.tn.gov/governor/news/2020/4/20/gov--lee-announces-safer-at-home-order-will-expire-april-30--tennessee-begins-phased-reopening-next-week.html

[100% pro-life no matter what]

Of all past epidemics/pandemics in world history, which do you all think comes as the closest analogy to what we are going through now?  

The 1889-90 flu pandemic:

-0.1-0.3% mortality rate (serology based estimates of COVID-19 are 0.1-0.5%)
-R0 of 2.1 (COVID-19 is slightly worse, but not dramatically so)
-Infected 20-60% of world's population
-1 million deaths (world's population 1/5 the size of today's)

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/1889%E2%80%931890_flu_pandemic

[100% pro-life no matter what]

Of all past epidemics/pandemics in world history, which do you all think comes as the closest analogy to what we are going through now?  

Probably somewhere between the Spanish Flu and the Asian Flu.
If I had to make a scale out of 5, Covid-19 would be in the middle.
5: Black Death/N.A Smallpox
4: Spanish Flu
3: Covid-19
2: Asian Flu/Polio
1. Swine Flu/Ebola

I don't think Ebola belongs on the same scale, as it has never caused a true pandemic, only localized epidemics (and it's ill-suited to cause one in most developed countries based on how it spreads).  Also, the gaps between these are not consistent.  The Black Death (which some believe may have actually been an Ebola-like illness) would be a 100+ if the Spanish Flu was a 4.  I think it's hard to comprehend an epidemic truly killing 1/3 to 1/2 of the population- because nothing like that has been seen since the Black Death (except smallpox in the New World).

[100% pro-life no matter what]

Of all past epidemics/pandemics in world history, which do you all think comes as the closest analogy to what we are going through now?  

Probably somewhere between the Spanish Flu and the Asian Flu.
If I had to make a scale out of 5, Covid-19 would be in the middle.
5: Black Death/N.A Smallpox
4: Spanish Flu
3: Covid-19
2: Asian Flu/Polio
1. Swine Flu/Ebola

I don't think Ebola belongs on the same scale, as it has never caused a true pandemic, only localized epidemics (and it's ill-suited to cause one in most developed countries based on how it spreads).  Also, the gaps between these are not consistent.  The Black Death (which some believe may have actually been an Ebola-like illness) would be a 100+ if the Spanish Flu was a 4.  I think it's hard to comprehend an epidemic truly killing 1/3 to 1/2 of the population- because nothing like that has been seen since the Black Death (except smallpox in the New World).

Bro what? The Black Death was caused by Plague, a disease which is caused by the bacterium Yersinia Pestis. That's nothing like Ebola, which is a virus.

Some researchers have called that into question and believe that its spread, mortality, and symptoms were more in line with a viral hemorrhagic fever than the plague.

https://www.nature.com/scitable/blog/viruses101/could_the_black_death_actually/
https://www.independent.co.uk/life-style/health-and-families/health-news/black-death-was-caused-by-the-ebola-virus-9242867.html
https://abcnews.go.com/Health/story?id=117310&page=1

[100% pro-life no matter what]

Am I the only person who legit thinks dine-in restaurants, malls, and theaters are done after this?

People are just going to stop wanting to go out to eat?  I really doubt that.  Restaurants are reopening in my state next week.

[100% pro-life no matter what]

I went out to eat for the first time since March today and wanted to share some observations.  For context, I live in a well-off suburban county that is even redder than my already very red state.

I got to the restaurant at 11, right as they were opening for lunch.  There were probably 2 or 3 other parties who were also arriving at the same time.  I could see employees finishing up sanitizing tables and menus as I was walking in.  It is a really nice day- bright sunshine, temperatures in the 80s, and a warm breeze- so I decided to sit on the outdoor patio, but I could still see into the main restaurant.  They had the bar seating roped off, and there was a sign on the bathrooms saying to not have more than 3 people in them at once for social distancing.  There were also hand sanitizing stations everywhere.  By the time I had finished eating and left, they had reached the 50% capacity limit in the front room, which was more desirable due to having floor-to-ceiling windows that they opened, as well as having all of the appropriately spaced outdoor tables occupied, so they had to send new diners to the darker and fully indoors back room.  The servers were all wearing masks and gloves, but obviously none of the diners were wearing them, as you couldn't eat with them on.

Then, I drove into Downtown Franklin and parked in the garage to walk around for a little bit.  I saw pretty decent crowds walking around, but slightly less than an average Saturday.  There, maybe a little over half of the restaurants and most of the stores had resumed in-person service.  A couple stores had signs on their doors asking people to wear masks if they came in, but that was the minority.  Of all the people I saw walking downtown, I only saw 2 wearing masks.  The restaurants that had reopened looked like they were doing pretty well, and at least one appeared to have hit the 50% capacity limit and had a line out the door.

The most surprising thing I saw was on my drive home.  I saw what appeared to be a food truck festival going on.  I just drove by and didn't stop, but I assume that there must have been some precautions being taken.  Plus, sunlight kills this virus pretty quickly from what I have heard.  All in all, having returned home yesterday after quarantining with my parents, I was a little surprised at just how much normal life has come back here.  While I'm sure that some people are choosing to stay home (and all the crowds I saw were mostly young-ish looking), it certainly looks to me like there is a lot of appetite to return to normal life, at least here.

[100% pro-life no matter what]

Tucker Carlson talks about Sweden and the WHO.

He said they were the only Western country not to place people in lockdown:

https://www.facebook.com/TuckerCarlsonTonight/videos/255471012495949/

Tucker is a little bit hysterical, but the interesting part is that Sweden might become a model for what Phase 2 and 3 relaxations look like.

Though that would require people not to act hysterically and to take social distancing seriously. The behaviour of the Sweden fans actually makes a Swedish-style relaxation less likely to be effective.

Sweden is an important data point for us because the post-lockdown America that is starting to form (especially in the South and Plains) is looking broadly similar to the Swedish model.

[100% pro-life no matter what]

Over the last week, Google searches for "Reopen" and "Stay at home" have been almost identical (Stay at home had a massive edge a few weeks ago).  One cool feature is that it lets you break it down by state.

Strongest States for Reopen:
Arkansas- 87%
Oklahoma- 83%
New Jersey- 77%
New York- 76%
Connecticut- 73%
Nebraska- 73%
Utah- 71%
Kentucky- 70%
Tennessee- 69%
Iowa- 69%

Strongest States for Stay at home:
Indiana- 81%
Minnesota- 81%
Michigan- 81%
New Hampshire- 80%
Kansas- 78%
Washington- 78%
Maine- 76%
Illinois- 75%
Missouri- 68%
Wisconsin- 66%

Full map:

If you're curious, Reopen (in blue) would win this "Electoral College" 282-256, despite losing the popular vote 52.6%-47.4%.  The closest state was California, which rounded to 50-50.

[100% pro-life no matter what]

I would agree with this. Individual businesses should have the right to decide whether or not they will require customers to wear masks while on their premises, but government should not, at least to the extent of fining, jailing, or otherwise penalizing people for not wearing them.

Does government have the right to tell you to cover your genitals in public, including in stores? It's for hygiene right? Because, so is this.

There is a difference between indecent exposure and mask wearing.

I'm OK with an enforceable mask law, but I prefer just encouraging private businesses to provide them to employees and throw out customers who aren't wearing them.  Make it part of the safe harbor guidelines for legal liability.

How do you propose that restaurants require people to wear masks to eat?

[100% pro-life no matter what]

5/6 (Today):

• Cases: 1,263,092 (+26,105 | Δ Change: ↑8.09% | Σ Increase: ↑2.11%)
• Deaths: 74,799 (+2,558 | Δ Change: ↑10.26% | Σ Increase: ↑3.54%)

Cases seems to have decreased in the last week. Deaths continue to be just as bad.

Deaths would always be a lagging indicator.  We also have to remember that testing has ramped up.  Nate Silver tweets a metric every day with the percentage of the tests coming back positive, and that has showed a slow, but steady, decline over the last month or so.

[100% pro-life no matter what]

Until we get a vaccine or a very strong treatment that will reduce the risk of mortality to a very low level socially distancing in masks in public are going to be a thing. This is kind of why I'm hoping that the Oxford vaccine ends up working because it works so we can get a vaccine by September life can start to go back to normal around election time and for the holidays.

but until either one of those two things happen we just have to accept we're going to live in a new reality

See, I don't really buy this just because the risk of mortality is already so low that vaccination or improved antiviral remedies just aren't going to be massive game-changers.  The basic math of COVID-19 creates a huge barrier for success; already, more than 99% of people with the virus survive.  An unimaginably successful therapy that has a massive 50% reduction in death will therefore only deliver 0.5% absolute risk reduction.

And it seems like there's been a fundamental recharacterization of "social distancing" since the beginning of this crisis.  Social distancing will not lower the IFR.  Even with strict social distancing, the number of cases will likely be the same after two years as a world with no social distancing.  If the number of cases is the same then the number of people who cumulatively die will not likely change either.

And, I know it's different in different places, but I'm seeing almost no one here wearing masks, apart from employees in stores and restaurants.  Obviously, you wouldn't expect people eating in a restaurant to be wearing one, but people walking on the street weren't wearing one, nor were customers in a convenience store.

[100% pro-life no matter what]

Can someone with more expertise than me give any insight into how this works and what it would mean?

https://twitter.com/ScottGottliebMD/status/1259194332793446402

[100% pro-life no matter what]

For anyone looking for a rare positive development in all this, today had the lowest percentage of positive tests since way back on March 16.

Where do you find national positivity rates?

Nate Silver tweets it every day.

[100% pro-life no matter what]

https://twitter.com/NateSilver538/status/1259957359532740609

Although Monday numbers are usually lower, these are apparently the best since late March.

Sunday and Monday numbers are always lower, but that doesn't stop us from being able to compare to previous Sundays and Mondays.  And, by that standard, we're heading in the right direction.

[100% pro-life no matter what]

Today just had by far the most tests of any day so far. Yet still, Worldometers may show only about 17,000 new cases today, if that. Percentage of positive cases tumbled to about 4.5% today.

It was still a good day, but the testing number was increased because New Jersey dumped a bunch of backlogged negative tests.

[100% pro-life no matter what]

https://twitter.com/NateSilver538/status/1260324940114464768

Just over 1500 deaths, compared to 2500 a week ago.

The positive test rate at 7% is also really good.  It's the lowest other than yesterday (which may have had some data issues).

[100% pro-life no matter what]

Obviously, this is very localized, but the main hospital in my town is now reporting zero coronavirus cases!

https://www.williamsonhomepage.com/news/williamson-medical-center-reports-zero-covid-19-patients-in-house-since-saturday/article_c9494642-93ee-11ea-9db9-d7a395926d1f.html

[100% pro-life no matter what]

https://twitter.com/atrupar/status/1261787286368186369

There's zero chance that any impact of that decision would register in the data yet.

[100% pro-life no matter what]

Only 100 new cases in Tennessee today (including 0 in my county).  Granted testing was down, but the % positive rate was only 1.97%.  We've mostly been in the 3-4% range, which is well better than the rest of the nation, but today's look good.

[100% pro-life no matter what]

Testing hits an all-time high as test-positivity rate hits a new low (excluding the NJ negative test day):

https://twitter.com/NateSilver538/status/1262140597089034240

[100% pro-life no matter what]

Florida is surging.

https://twitter.com/DWUhlfelderLaw/status/1263503578578202626?s=20

One day does not inherently mean a surge, particularly if testing has gone up or if it was a localized outbreak/focus testing program.

[100% pro-life no matter what]

Facts.

“For the first time, the CDC has attempted to offer a real estimate of the overall death rate for COVID-19, and under its most likely scenario, the number is 0.26%. Officials estimate a 0.4% fatality rate among those who are symptomatic and project a 35% rate of asymptomatic cases among those infected, which drops the overall infection fatality rate (IFR) to just 0.26% — almost exactly where Stanford researchers pegged it a month ago.”

“We destroyed our entire country and suspended democracy all for a lie, and these people perpetrated the unscientific degree of panic. Will they ever admit the grave consequences of their error?”

https://www.conservativereview.com/news/horowitz-cdc-confirms-remarkably-low-coronavirus-death-rate-media/

I guess my signature was actually too pessimistic!

[100% pro-life no matter what]

Glad the virus-truthers want to listen to the CDC without question now!
Since we are doing that, how about we have everyone wear a mask, slowly reopen (and revert back to shutdowns if cases spike), and social distance, like the CDC recommends?

You know, I don't really have a huge problem with masks.  I'm happy to wear one if I'm going to be in a place like a supermarket (I actually remember kind of regretting not wearing one the last time I went in one).  I just think that most businesses should be open, even those not conducive to masks or social distancing (like restaurants).  As I live alone, I am also going to see friends when I can, as I would go crazy otherwise.

If masks in certain circumstances (like a crowded store) are what it takes to otherwise get back to normal, I'm fine with that.  It kind of feels dystopian when restaurant servers have masks on, but I don't mind that either at the end of the day.

What I do think we need (and even once this is over) is hand sanitizer everywhere.  You should never have a hard time finding it when you enter a store, workplace, church, stadium, or restaurant.

[100% pro-life no matter what]

Even though we are months removed, and the weather is now warm, in my head it still feels like it’s March. Anyone else?

Yeah people have wasted two months of their lives on this; fortunately, that’s starting to change now as lockdowns are being relaxed. 

The sad reality is that, for the vast majority of people, the percentage of their life that they miss out on due to fear of the coronavirus (including after lockdowns are formally over) will probably be greater than their percentage chance of dying, even if they contracted the coronavirus.

[100% pro-life no matter what]

Even though we are months removed, and the weather is now warm, in my head it still feels like it’s March. Anyone else?

Yeah people have wasted two months of their lives on this; fortunately, that’s starting to change now as lockdowns are being relaxed.  

"Wasted?"

I really don't get why people are acting like not being able to go to group events is "wasting" one's life. I've been carrying on with life pretty much as normal, though obviously not making impulse shopping trips. I can go to the park, I can read (libraries being closed is tough, but at least here they're open for curbside service), I can still talk to to people on the phone or even video chat, I can order delicious food from local restaurants, I can do crafts, I can train my pets, I can play video games, etc etc etc. Why is social distancing "wasting" life?

The mental health impacts of this are real and we must be aware of making sure we get the interaction we need, even if it's different than normal. But anyone who is "wasting" their life cannot blame the virus for it: there's plenty to do that doesn't require being in close proximity to others.

I can't help but compare people complaining about this to a spoiled child who has way more toys than they can ever play with complaining when some of the toys are taken away, even though there are still dozens in reach.

Umm, no, most of what living life is requires being around other people.  Basically all you can do alone is distract yourself from the fact that you are alone with entertainment and stuff.  If you actually support social distancing (which has been a stupid concept from day 1), you could make every single one of those same arguments for seasonal flu.

Fortunately, I live in a place where people have brains and have largely given up on social distancing out of fear for a virus that is basically the flu in terms of death rate.

In fact, I've come to believe that the proper policy would have been literally the opposite of social distancing, where we encouraged everyone young and healthy to have even greater social contact than usual to try to hit herd immunity within a couple weeks or so while sparing the tiny minority of people for whom the coronavirus is actually a concern from the virus.