2020 Generic Ballot / Recruitment / Fundraising / Ratings Megathread v2

[Roll Roons]

Thanks you two!

I really hope they're buying in TX-24 and/or elsewhere in the Dallas metro. TX-23 is important too, but it's such low-hanging fruit that I somewhat worry that the DCCC sees it as the only Texas district worth serious spending (Besides some minimal buys in the 10th & 22nd)

If anything, I can see TX-24 becoming a seat that the parties significantly reduce their spending in the fall. This district voted to the left of the state (in some cases by not-insignificant margins) in pretty much every statewide race in 2018 - most notably in the Senate election where Beto O'Rourke won by 3.5% - 6% to the left of the state. It also should be noted that this seat was heavily overlooked in 2018 at the House level and it ended up being close anyways. Jan McDowell only raised like $100K (or something pitifully low like that) for the entire cycle and ended up getting closer to winning than Siegel and Kulkarni (who both raised more money than her and got at least some attention from the national party).

Essentially, based on fundamentals alone this seat will flip if Texas is remotely competitive at the presidential level and the Democrats have a credible candidate (which it is and they do).

Of the competitive Texas races, I would say that 23 is Likely D, 24 is Lean D, and 10, 21, and 22 are the top-tier competitive races that are varying levels of tossups. I'm not convinced that the seats on the outer level of competitiveness (2, 3, 6, 25, 31) are going to flip, but I won't discount a potential upset.

TX-10 should go behind behind the other two. McCaul is decently strong and personally very wealthy, while Siegel is a weaker candidate than Davis or Kulkarni. I'm pretty sure he's a Berniecrat, which I doubt plays well in what is still a fairly Republican-leaning district.

[RussFeingoldWasRobbed]

Thanks you two!

I really hope they're buying in TX-24 and/or elsewhere in the Dallas metro. TX-23 is important too, but it's such low-hanging fruit that I somewhat worry that the DCCC sees it as the only Texas district worth serious spending (Besides some minimal buys in the 10th & 22nd)

If anything, I can see TX-24 becoming a seat that the parties significantly reduce their spending in the fall. This district voted to the left of the state (in some cases by not-insignificant margins) in pretty much every statewide race in 2018 - most notably in the Senate election where Beto O'Rourke won by 3.5% - 6% to the left of the state. It also should be noted that this seat was heavily overlooked in 2018 at the House level and it ended up being close anyways. Jan McDowell only raised like $100K (or something pitifully low like that) for the entire cycle and ended up getting closer to winning than Siegel and Kulkarni (who both raised more money than her and got at least some attention from the national party).

Essentially, based on fundamentals alone this seat will flip if Texas is remotely competitive at the presidential level and the Democrats have a credible candidate (which it is and they do).

Of the competitive Texas races, I would say that 23 is Likely D, 24 is Lean D, and 10, 21, and 22 are the top-tier competitive races that are varying levels of tossups. I'm not convinced that the seats on the outer level of competitiveness (2, 3, 6, 25, 31) are going to flip, but I won't discount a potential upset.

TX-10 should go behind behind the other two. McCaul is decently strong and personally very wealthy, while Siegel is a weaker candidate than Davis or Kulkarni. I'm pretty sure he's a Berniecrat, which I doubt plays well in what is still a fairly Republican-leaning district.

LOL this meme needs to die. McCaul won by only 4 points in the district even though dems spent no money here. Cruz didn't win the district and I expect to be even worse for the more unpopular Trump. Siegel isn't the best candidate but from what we've seen candidate quality doesn't matter in these suburban districts. If Trump does worse then Cruz I don't see how McCaul wins

[Interlocutor is just not there yet]

Thanks you two!

I really hope they're buying in TX-24 and/or elsewhere in the Dallas metro. TX-23 is important too, but it's such low-hanging fruit that I somewhat worry that the DCCC sees it as the only Texas district worth serious spending (Besides some minimal buys in the 10th & 22nd)

If anything, I can see TX-24 becoming a seat that the parties significantly reduce their spending in the fall. This district voted to the left of the state (in some cases by not-insignificant margins) in pretty much every statewide race in 2018 - most notably in the Senate election where Beto O'Rourke won by 3.5% - 6% to the left of the state. It also should be noted that this seat was heavily overlooked in 2018 at the House level and it ended up being close anyways. Jan McDowell only raised like $100K (or something pitifully low like that) for the entire cycle and ended up getting closer to winning than Siegel and Kulkarni (who both raised more money than her and got at least some attention from the national party).

Essentially, based on fundamentals alone this seat will flip if Texas is remotely competitive at the presidential level and the Democrats have a credible candidate (which it is and they do).

Of the competitive Texas races, I would say that 23 is Likely D, 24 is Lean D, and 10, 21, and 22 are the top-tier competitive races that are varying levels of tossups. I'm not convinced that the seats on the outer level of competitiveness (2, 3, 6, 25, 31) are going to flip, but I won't discount a potential upset.

You may have a point with the 24th. I just don't want the DCCC to sell themselves short in Texas, only caring about the 23rd & 24th. Though the candidates themselves are raising so much money (IE: Wendy Davis), the DCCC might have a bit more freedom to spread themselves district-wise. I can see them shifting spending more towards the 10th & 22nd, perhaps one of 2/25/31 if things look very good a month from now

[Roll Roons]

Thanks you two!

I really hope they're buying in TX-24 and/or elsewhere in the Dallas metro. TX-23 is important too, but it's such low-hanging fruit that I somewhat worry that the DCCC sees it as the only Texas district worth serious spending (Besides some minimal buys in the 10th & 22nd)

If anything, I can see TX-24 becoming a seat that the parties significantly reduce their spending in the fall. This district voted to the left of the state (in some cases by not-insignificant margins) in pretty much every statewide race in 2018 - most notably in the Senate election where Beto O'Rourke won by 3.5% - 6% to the left of the state. It also should be noted that this seat was heavily overlooked in 2018 at the House level and it ended up being close anyways. Jan McDowell only raised like $100K (or something pitifully low like that) for the entire cycle and ended up getting closer to winning than Siegel and Kulkarni (who both raised more money than her and got at least some attention from the national party).

Essentially, based on fundamentals alone this seat will flip if Texas is remotely competitive at the presidential level and the Democrats have a credible candidate (which it is and they do).

Of the competitive Texas races, I would say that 23 is Likely D, 24 is Lean D, and 10, 21, and 22 are the top-tier competitive races that are varying levels of tossups. I'm not convinced that the seats on the outer level of competitiveness (2, 3, 6, 25, 31) are going to flip, but I won't discount a potential upset.

TX-10 should go behind behind the other two. McCaul is decently strong and personally very wealthy, while Siegel is a weaker candidate than Davis or Kulkarni. I'm pretty sure he's a Berniecrat, which I doubt plays well in what is still a fairly Republican-leaning district.

LOL this meme needs to die. McCaul won by only 4 points in the district even though dems spent no money here. Cruz didn't win the district and I expect to be even worse for the more unpopular Trump. Siegel isn't the best candidate but from what we've seen candidate quality doesn't matter in these suburban districts. If Trump does worse then Cruz I don't see how McCaul wins

He seems to be taking the race more seriously this time, and will almost certainly run ahead of Trump. Also bear in mind that Davis, Kulkarni and Valenzuela are all part of DCCC's Red to Blue program, while Siegel isn't.

[Oryxslayer]

https://twitter.com/Politics_Polls/status/1297773356721352704?s=20

Another Democratic Internal in IN05, another democratic lead large enough to be maintain itself even after one 'corrects' for the fact that this is an internal.

[WD]

https://twitter.com/Politics_Polls/status/1297773356721352704?s=20
Another Democratic Internal in IN05, another democratic lead large enough to be maintain itself even after one 'corrects' for the fact that this is an internal.

Lean D

[wbrocks67]

The Civiqs GCB tracker is back up to D+10

https://civiqs.com/results/vote_house_generic_2020?uncertainty=true&annotations=true&zoomIn=true

[TiltsAreUnderrated]

IN-05
Global Strategy Group (D)

Hale 47%
Spartz 40%
Tucker 4%
Undecided 9%

https://nmcdn.io/e186d21f8c7946a19faed23c3da2f0da/7c9798eaafd54081881797bf9a163295/files/research/IN-05-Polling-082120.pdf

House Majority PAC internal
August 17-19, 2020
400 likely voters
MoE: 4.9%

Generic D 47%
Generic R 44%
Refused 1%
Undecided 8%

Hale (D) 47%
Spartz (R) 40%
Tucker (L) 4%
Undecided/Refused 9%

[Landslide Lyndon]

https://twitter.com/MelissaRyan/status/1297960487922147328

[Landslide Lyndon]

https://twitter.com/ehananoki/status/1298302575272497168

[VAR]

NY-23
Global Strategy Group (D)
July 23-26

Reed (R, inc.) 50%
Mitrano (D) 38%

https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/20200825_NY.pdf

Tom Reed won re-election by 8 points in 2018.

[Roll Roons]

NY-23
Global Strategy Group (D)
July 23-26

Reed (R, inc.) 50%
Mitrano (D) 38%

https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/20200825_NY.pdf

Safe R race is Safe R. Especially in this district where college student turnout will likely be lower than usual.

[TiltsAreUnderrated]

NY-23
Global Strategy Group (D)
July 23-26

Reed (R, inc.) 50%
Mitrano (D) 38%

https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/20200825_NY.pdf

Tom Reed won re-election by 8 points in 2018.

July 23-26, 2020
502 likely voters
MoE: 4.4%

Generic R 45%
Generic D 41%

[n1240]

https://twitter.com/kirk_bado/status/1298451167471689729

[SnowLabrador]

https://twitter.com/kirk_bado/status/1298451167471689729

Absolutely a tossup.

[TiltsAreUnderrated]

Puerto Rico (old):
https://www.scribd.com/document/450474678/Cuestionario-de-La-Encuesta-de-El-Nuevo-Dia-de-marzo-de-2020

El Nuevo Día
February 21-25, 2020
1000 registered voters
MoE: 3.1%

Jenniffer Gonzalez (PNP-R): 41%
Aníbal Vilá (PPD-D): 20%
Other candidate: 12%
Would not vote: 7%
Luis Piñero (PIP): 5%
Zayira Conde (MVC): 5%
Generic Project Dignity (no nominee yet): 4%
Undecided: 6%

[TiltsAreUnderrated]

A much newer Puerto Rico poll:

https://radioisla.tv/jenniffer-gonzalez-obtendria-una-ventaja-comoda-frente-a-anibal-acevedo-vila/

Radio Isla/Jorge Benítez
July 28-August 3, 2020
983 likely voters
MoE: 2.5%

Jenniffer Gonzalez (PNP-R): 40%
Aníbal Vilá (PPD-D): 34%
Zayira Conde (MVC): 8%
Luis Piñero (PIP): 6%
Ada Henriquez (Project Dignity): 3%
Undecided: 9%

[politicallefty]

How exactly does that work where the statehood party candidate is aligned with the Republicans, yet only through Democrats will statehood actually be a possibility? (No need to explain how the PNP and PPD work. I already know that. I'm just talking about how things work in Congress.) There seems to be very little support among Republicans for PR statehood, which is a very real possibility in the near future.

[GeorgiaModerate]

How exactly does that work where the statehood party candidate is aligned with the Republicans, yet only through Democrats will statehood actually be a possibility? (No need to explain how the PNP and PPD work. I already know that. I'm just talking about how things work in Congress.) There seems to be very little support among Republicans for PR statehood, which is a very real possibility in the near future.

There's also the fact that the most recent Republican platform (2016, since they're not doing one in 2020) supports PR statehood.

[politicallefty]

How exactly does that work where the statehood party candidate is aligned with the Republicans, yet only through Democrats will statehood actually be a possibility? (No need to explain how the PNP and PPD work. I already know that. I'm just talking about how things work in Congress.) There seems to be very little support among Republicans for PR statehood, which is a very real possibility in the near future.

There's also the fact that the most recent Republican platform (2016, since they're not doing one in 2020) supports PR statehood.

And we all know how much worth the 2016 Republican platform was, lol.

[VAR]

DCCC reserves new ad buys in competitive districts, adds new members to 'Red to Blue' program $3.8M in total.

Philadelphia (NJ-02): $960k
Salt Lake City (UT-04): $852k
Los Angeles (CA-25): $751k
St. Louis (IL-13, MO-02): $480k
Indianapolis (IN-05): $400k
New York City (NJ-07): $320k

[Interlocutor is just not there yet]

New candidates added to 'Red To Blue' program

Ammar Campa-Najjar (CA-50)
Nancy Goroff (NY-01)



Districts added to DCCC target list

NC-11 (OPEN, the Cawthorn one)
TX-03 (Taylor)
TX-06 (Wright)
TX-25 (Williams)

I think that makes it 10 GOP-held seats in Texas being targeted

[TiltsAreUnderrated]

New candidates added to 'Red To Blue' program

Ammar Campa-Najjar (CA-50)
Nancy Goroff (NY-01)



Districts added to DCCC target list

NC-11 (OPEN, the Cawthorn one)
TX-03 (Taylor)
TX-06 (Wright)
TX-25 (Williams)

I think that makes it 10 GOP-held seats in Texas being targeted

What's the difference between the target list and Red to Blue?

[TiltsAreUnderrated]

https://twitter.com/PatrickSvitek/status/1298743012504276994

[VAR]

Generic ballot: PA (Franklin & Marshall College)

Democratic 45% (-1)
Republican 42% (nc)

Was D 48/39 in August 2018.

https://www.fandm.edu/uploads/files/166320825519932897-f-m-poll-release-aug-2020.pdf