2020 Generic Ballot / Recruitment / Fundraising / Ratings Megathread v2

[GeorgiaModerate]

Roll Call House rating changes:

https://www.rollcall.com/news/campaigns/house-rating-changes-a-dozen-races-shift-toward-democrats

Toward R:

MN-7: Lean D to Tilt D

Toward D:

AZ-6: Solid R to Likely R
CA-25: Likely D to Solid D
IL-6: Lean D to Likely D
IL-13: Tilt R to Tossup
IA-2: Tossup to Tilt D
IA-4: Lean R to Tilt R
MI-8: Tilt D to Lean D
MI-11: Lean D to Likely D
MN-1: Lean R to Tilt R
MN-2: Lean D to Likely D
NH-1: Lean D to Likely D
VA-2: Tilt D to Lean D

[GeorgiaModerate]

Businessman Joe Profit (a great name for his occupation), who was running for the Republican nomination in GA-07, switches to GA-06 instead.

[GeorgiaModerate]

GA-07: Former Sen. Max Cleland changes his endorsement from Bourdeaux to Karinshak.

[GeorgiaModerate]

https://twitter.com/kirk_bado/status/1215393059275452417

[GeorgiaModerate]

Air Force veteran Ben Bullock pulls out of the GA-07 Republican primary and switches to GA-14.  He's the second candidate to do something like this; earlier, businessman Joe Profit switched from GA-07 (R) to GA-06.

[GeorgiaModerate]

Lucy McBath (GA-06) raised $1 MILLION in 4th Q

https://www.ajc.com/blog/politics/georgia-6th-lucy-mcbath-report-more-than-campaign-account/g7yTfDqJtgMwSEQoogRWMJ/

I will be quite surprised if McBath loses.  From what I've heard on the ground (I work in GA-06, although I don't live there) she's pretty well thought of, including by a lot of Republicans.

[GeorgiaModerate]

State Rep. Kevin Tanner (R-Dawsonville) is running for the GA-09 seat that Doug Collins is vacating to run for Senate.

https://www.dawsonnews.com/local/government/tanner-announces-congressional-bid/

[GeorgiaModerate]

https://twitter.com/HotlineJosh/status/1223652032025972737

[GeorgiaModerate]

State Rep. Kevin Tanner (R-Dawsonville) is running for the GA-09 seat that Doug Collins is vacating to run for Senate.

https://www.dawsonnews.com/local/government/tanner-announces-congressional-bid/

Another for GA-09: Cumming attorney Ethan Underwood.  I've interacted with him a bit on a couple of local zoning issues and he's always seemed like a decent person and willing to listen.

[GeorgiaModerate]

https://twitter.com/FordOConnell/status/1240645182552453124

[GeorgiaModerate]

Firehouse Strategies/Optimus, an R-leaning pollster, has the GCB at D+12 among both all adults and RV.

https://github.com/optimus-forecasting-and-polling/Firehouse-0ptimus-Coronavirus-Tracking/blob/master/April-16-2020/Toplines_2020-04-14.pdf

[GeorgiaModerate]

I had the House at Lean D but I think it's pretty Likely D at this point.

https://twitter.com/Redistrict/status/1253081178011250689?s=20

Defining Lean as "one side has a clear edge, but neither outcome would be a surprise" and Likely as "it would be a surprise if the leading side lost, but it's not completely implausible", then I think the House has to be Likely D at this point; it would certainly be a real surprise for Republicans to take the majority.

For the sake of completeness: I define Safe as "an upset would be completely shocking", Tilt as "it's really close, but if forced to choose there's one I'd pick", and Tossup as "I'm clueless".  At this point I'm calling the Presidency Lean D and the Senate Tossup (maybe Tilt D if you squint hard enough).

[GeorgiaModerate]

https://twitter.com/nataliewsj/status/1271453775002316800

[GeorgiaModerate]

https://twitter.com/kirk_bado/status/1272515655980498944

[GeorgiaModerate]

https://www.politico.com/playbook

FIRST LOOK FOR PLAYBOOKERS … MINNESOTA REP. TOM EMMER, the chair of the House GOP’s campaign arm, will use a virtual meeting of House Republican lawmakers this morning to brief them on a new battleground poll the Terrance Group conducted June 7-10 among 1,014 swing voters. Here are the highlights:

THE POLL SHOWS REPUBLICANS hold a 1-point advantage over Democrats on the generic ballot (testing a generic R vs. generic D). … THE ECONOMY is a top concern of voters -- 23% says it’s their top concern, followed by corruption in D.C. at 20% and the coronavirus at 10%. 56% of voters approve of the job the president is doing on the economy. … Unsurprisingly, DEFUNDING POLICE is unpopular, with 59% of swing voters opposed. But 51% support the protests -- which might help explain some of the urgency to address police conduct. Read the memo Republicans will get this morning

NRCC internal: R+1 on the generic ballot

Isn't this just R+1 among whatever they're defining as "swing voters?" LOL either way.

Or in specific states, since it's a "battleground poll"?

It's funny that they misspelled the pollster name (it's actually Tarrance Group).

[GeorgiaModerate]

https://twitter.com/PpollingNumbers/status/1278538571876622342

[GeorgiaModerate]

Crystal Ball downgrades GA-SEN (Perdue/Ossoff) from Likely R to Lean R as part of an in-depth look at the state (co-authored by Atlas alumnus J. Miles Coleman): http://centerforpolitics.org/crystalball/articles/states-of-play-georgia/.

[GeorgiaModerate]

Crystal Ball downgrades GA-SEN (Perdue/Ossoff) from Likely R to Lean R as part of an in-depth look at the state (co-authored by Atlas alumnus J. Miles Coleman): http://centerforpolitics.org/crystalball/articles/states-of-play-georgia/.

Thoughts on that, GM? (As a Georgia resident)

Lean R seems right to me.  Ossoff is definitely making a race out of it, but I think Perdue still has a small lead.  Also, Ossoff probably needs to win outright on Nov. 3 (and there are a few minor candidates running) since Perdue would likely have a bigger edge in a runoff.  We may well have both Georgia seats in the Jan. 5 runoff, since the special election is almost certain to need one.

[GeorgiaModerate]

Not sure if this is the appropriate thread but help needed here!

I’m in the fortunate position where I have some extra cash each month that I’d like to donate to Democratic candidates. Can anyone point me to challengers/incumbents who would most benefit from some more donations? Whether it’s their expensive media market or that their challenger is also raising good money.

I have donated to Tipirneni in AZ06 since I’ll be moving to her district before the election. I know folks like Mark Kelly and Elissa Slotkin don’t need my $100!

The most bang for your bucks might be Greenfield in Iowa-SEN.

[GeorgiaModerate]

IA-03
Tarrance Group
July 7-9
400 LV

Young 44%
Axne 43%
Holder 6%
Undecided 7%

https://www.politico.com/f/?id=00000173-6f68-d3de-ab7b-7f79a08f0000

Lol Trump at 58% approval on economy.

It's more revealing that this is the only Trump approval number they released; no other issues, and no general job approval.

[GeorgiaModerate]

MI-06: Gravis, July 16, 604 LV (Richardson internal)

Richardson 56
Upton 36

https://docs.google.com/document/d/1O4uevaasIOGnwxQALcpeWRT8_38Qxi_38NObAsgpa_I/edit

[GeorgiaModerate]

A new Echelon Insights poll (July 17-22, 1000 LV) has the GCB at D+14 (51-37).

[GeorgiaModerate]

DePasquale +2 (46/44) in a DFM poll of PA-10

Pretty horrendous to release a poll showing yourself trailing in a district where polls in 2018 were off by astronomical margins in favor of both Hurd and Cruz.

I think you've quoted the wrong poll, unless Texas has annexed Pennsylvania.

[GeorgiaModerate]

TX-03 internal for Taylor shows him up 13 on Seikaly:

The presidential race in this district was not polled.

It probably was, but they didn't like what they saw.

Exactly.  A consistent trend in these internal district polls has been that the D internals release the presidential numbers, while the R internals don't.

[GeorgiaModerate]

How exactly does that work where the statehood party candidate is aligned with the Republicans, yet only through Democrats will statehood actually be a possibility? (No need to explain how the PNP and PPD work. I already know that. I'm just talking about how things work in Congress.) There seems to be very little support among Republicans for PR statehood, which is a very real possibility in the near future.

There's also the fact that the most recent Republican platform (2016, since they're not doing one in 2020) supports PR statehood.