2020 Generic Ballot / Recruitment / Fundraising / Ratings Megathread v2

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Barr took donations from a Ukrainian businessman:

https://www.kentucky.com/news/politics-government/article236028068.html

Still a strong likely R seat.

Doesn't make it any less of a story

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FL-27 is already represented by one of the worst people in Congress who isn't a Republican, a true monster and likely sociopath of Trump levels. Well another notable stand out Horrible Person even beyond Republican levels could be her challenger.
https://twitter.com/rpyers/status/1190291742538387456?s=19

....if I was unfortunate enough to live in this sh!thole district I'd file and run myself in the D primary if no one else does.

Jesus! Not sure if I'm more taken aback by your hyperbole or how I thought you were talking about Rep. Wasserman-Schultz.

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FL-27 is already represented by one of the worst people in Congress who isn't a Republican, a true monster and likely sociopath of Trump levels. Well another notable stand out Horrible Person even beyond Republican levels could be her challenger.

....if I was unfortunate enough to live in this sh!thole district I'd file and run myself in the D primary if no one else does.

Why don't people like Shalala? Not that I like her, I've just never gotten any reason for the hate

When she was University of Miami President, she was cartoonish evil. She's most well known for her union busting and opposition to a janitor strike for a meager wage increase, leading to one of the university chaplains labeling her "an enemy of the working poor." She also sold land containing an endangered ecosystem to build a Wal-Mart. She's a truly terrible, greedy sociopathic person.

1. Love the leapfrogging over my take

2. As far as Democratic reps are concerned, I'd still put Wasserman-Schultz above her. Maybe even Sheila Jackson-Lee

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The DCCC released a poll one week ago that asked about Trump's job approval in a number of battleground districts:

https://2vmhfw1isbe32j3tgn3epw3x-wpengine.netdna-ssl.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/11/One-Year-Out.pdf

In 2018, record Republican retirements were an early sign that Democrats were going to take back the House. 2020 is no different. Retirements of senior Republicans like Rep. Susan Brooks, the NRCC’s Recruitment Chair, and Rep. Walden, the Ranking Member on the Energy and Commerce Committee, “raise questions about GOP optimism in 2020.”

Not true! Retirements only matter if the seats are flippable!

Yeah Atlas hasn't quite grasped out that Donald Trump is an unpopular President.

How much of Atlas hasn't grasped it? 2%? 1%?

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I am not surprised by this, Biden sapped up all the oxygen out the room except for Bernie online donations; consequently,  online donations have haulted due to the presidential race. As long as gas prices are elevated, people arent gonna keep giving. They still havent polled MA primary election and its March 3rd between Markey and Kennedy. Pelosi is begging for more donations

But, Trump is still a weaker Candidate than an Establishment R would be and he is beatable and so is the Leadership in the Senate. People are limiting their candidates who they are donating to

Do you just enjoying trolling with your takes? You never give any further explanation/reasoning for them.

It's been over a week and I'm still wondering what the hell "Warren's losing support because Castro is enabling her" is supposed to mean.

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Imagine telling a Texas Republican during the 2014 Midterms that there's a non-zero chance of the following scenarios happening during the 2020 elections

- Texas becomes a tossup state under President Donald Trump
- Democrats flip the State House
- Democrats control a majority of the states US House delegation
- Wendy Davis wins Lamar Smith's seat

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Crystal Ball downgrades GA-SEN (Perdue/Ossoff) from Likely R to Lean R as part of an in-depth look at the state (co-authored by Atlas alumnus J. Miles Coleman): http://centerforpolitics.org/crystalball/articles/states-of-play-georgia/.

Thoughts on that, GM? (As a Georgia resident)

Lean R seems right to me.  Ossoff is definitely making a race out of it, but I think Perdue still has a small lead.  Also, Ossoff probably needs to win outright on Nov. 3 (and there are a few minor candidates running) since Perdue would likely have a bigger edge in a runoff.  We may well have both Georgia seats in the Jan. 5 runoff, since the special election is almost certain to need one.

So basically, a typical Georgia race

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Really curious how the undecideds look.


Also very similar numbers to NBC/WSJ's poll around this time in 2018.


July 15-18, 2018
900 RV
MoE: 3.3%

Democrats: 49%
Republicans: 43%
Undecided: 8%

http://media1.s-nbcnews.com/i/today/z_creative/18570NBCWSJJulyPoll7-22-18Release.pdf

Their poll prior to that one had it D+10

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Not sure if this is the appropriate thread but help needed here!

I’m in the fortunate position where I have some extra cash each month that I’d like to donate to Democratic candidates. Can anyone point me to challengers/incumbents who would most benefit from some more donations? Whether it’s their expensive media market or that their challenger is also raising good money.

I have donated to Tipirneni in AZ06 since I’ll be moving to her district before the election. I know folks like Mark Kelly and Elissa Slotkin don’t need my $100!

I'd look into Texas. Either the handful of US House races that are quickly shifting from Solid/Likely R status or the Beto/Republican State House races that may decide control of the chamber

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The DCCC has started running digital ads in three battleground districts in Texas (TX-10, TX-22, TX-24):

https://www.texastribune.org/theblast/2020/07/21/#dccc-launches-digital-ads-against-3-republicans-ba

Very nice. Very glad about TX-22, since that seemed to be added to their target list after last week's primary.

Hopefully, TX-21 gets a good-sized ad buy soon

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The DCCC has started running digital ads in three battleground districts in Texas (TX-10, TX-22, TX-24):

https://www.texastribune.org/theblast/2020/07/21/#dccc-launches-digital-ads-against-3-republicans-ba

Very nice. Very glad about TX-22, since that seemed to be added to their target list after last week's primary.

Hopefully, TX-21 gets a good-sized ad buy soon

Wendy Davis has fundraised more than Hegar lol, she doesn't need any extra DCCC cash.

Damn you're certainly right. Could also explain why they're not spending in TX-23. Very encouraging

Even if Biden doesn't seriously contest it, I'm very pleased to see the Texas Democratic Party lay some campaign groundwork. If Beto's 2018 run accomplished anything, it was putting giant bullseyes around the specific districts to target this year and in the next few elections

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(snip)

This district was Trump +15 in 2016. If this is anywhere close to reality, Biden wins Texas.

This was also Cruz +5 in 2018. Seems clear to me that Texas is moving leftwards at a pace none of us could've imagined & that Beto's 2018 performance is closer to the Dems current floor than ceiling.

Like how the California GOPs losses in 2018 extended far beyond the House districts in Orange County, I think Texas is gonna provide some shocks and surprises this November.

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(snip)

This district was Trump +15 in 2016. If this is anywhere close to reality, Biden wins Texas.

This was also Cruz +5 in 2018. Seems clear to me that Texas is moving leftwards at a pace none of us could've imagined & that Beto's 2018 performance is closer to the Dems current floor than ceiling.

Like how the California GOPs losses in 2018 extended far beyond the House districts in Orange County, I think Texas is gonna provide some shocks and surprises this November.

Devin Nunes has to go as well. He won by only by 5 points in 2018, people talk about him as a super safe incumbent.

I agree and I wouldn't be surprised if he gets another scare this year. But with the GOP no longer controlling the House, I think the determination & lust to unseat him has worn off. Unlike last time when he was running the Russian investigation & wielded real power, the most prominence he's gotten since has been about suing Twitter over his cow.

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I'm assuming that's an internal poll?

McClintock won 54-46 in 2018. I'm expecting a similar result, more or less.

Still, perhaps another sign that 2020 is looking much more like 2018 than 2016.

I don't expect it to flip, but I'd be interested to see a poll of CA-22 & Devin Nunes

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Wow... though unsurprising given the numerous internal polls we've seen

https://twitter.com/JeremySWallace/status/1296111291296292864

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The DCCC is making a $9.9 million ad buy for 12 congressional districts, among them Alaska and Montana:

https://www.washingtonpost.com/elections/2020/08/19/democratic-national-convention-live-updates/#link-K3OKIWNJ5VEPZLMFFPSJELWUYA

The Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee is seeking to expand the House playing field in November by competing in races in Alaska and Montana as part of a new $9.9 million ad buy.

(...)

The DCCC buy also includes ads in Arizona, California, Iowa, Nebraska, New York, Ohio, South Carolina and Texas.

I can't get past the paywall. Does it say what specific districts they're targeting?

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Thanks you two!

I really hope they're buying in TX-24 and/or elsewhere in the Dallas metro. TX-23 is important too, but it's such low-hanging fruit that I somewhat worry that the DCCC sees it as the only Texas district worth serious spending (Besides some minimal buys in the 10th & 22nd)

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Thanks you two!

I really hope they're buying in TX-24 and/or elsewhere in the Dallas metro. TX-23 is important too, but it's such low-hanging fruit that I somewhat worry that the DCCC sees it as the only Texas district worth serious spending (Besides some minimal buys in the 10th & 22nd)

If anything, I can see TX-24 becoming a seat that the parties significantly reduce their spending in the fall. This district voted to the left of the state (in some cases by not-insignificant margins) in pretty much every statewide race in 2018 - most notably in the Senate election where Beto O'Rourke won by 3.5% - 6% to the left of the state. It also should be noted that this seat was heavily overlooked in 2018 at the House level and it ended up being close anyways. Jan McDowell only raised like $100K (or something pitifully low like that) for the entire cycle and ended up getting closer to winning than Siegel and Kulkarni (who both raised more money than her and got at least some attention from the national party).

Essentially, based on fundamentals alone this seat will flip if Texas is remotely competitive at the presidential level and the Democrats have a credible candidate (which it is and they do).

Of the competitive Texas races, I would say that 23 is Likely D, 24 is Lean D, and 10, 21, and 22 are the top-tier competitive races that are varying levels of tossups. I'm not convinced that the seats on the outer level of competitiveness (2, 3, 6, 25, 31) are going to flip, but I won't discount a potential upset.

You may have a point with the 24th. I just don't want the DCCC to sell themselves short in Texas, only caring about the 23rd & 24th. Though the candidates themselves are raising so much money (IE: Wendy Davis), the DCCC might have a bit more freedom to spread themselves district-wise. I can see them shifting spending more towards the 10th & 22nd, perhaps one of 2/25/31 if things look very good a month from now

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New candidates added to 'Red To Blue' program

Ammar Campa-Najjar (CA-50)
Nancy Goroff (NY-01)



Districts added to DCCC target list

NC-11 (OPEN, the Cawthorn one)
TX-03 (Taylor)
TX-06 (Wright)
TX-25 (Williams)

I think that makes it 10 GOP-held seats in Texas being targeted

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Sadly, I don't think the 3 race changes will include a Texas district. And if so, probably one of the 'obvious' ones like 7/23/24/32.

I'll go with CO-3 or some midwest district being the "shocker". I don't think it'll match the suspense

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I almost feel like the DCCC is selling themselves short in Texas by focusing so much on TX-23

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Finally.

https://twitter.com/PatrickSvitek/status/1313818860215173121?ref_src=twsrc%5Egoo...

What the hell was taking them so long? Did they consider this a 'last priority' seat in Texas or something?