2020 Generic Ballot / Recruitment / Fundraising / Ratings Megathread v2

[RussFeingoldWasRobbed]

https://twitter.com/JamesArkin/status/1255264363654656000?s=20

Interesting that AL/GA/TX/ are not on the list.

Because the dscc is run by morons that's why! They should spend a cent on IA and go all in on GA, GA-S and TX. What, do they want to have a useless 51-52 seat majority that cant pass any legislation?

[RussFeingoldWasRobbed]

Is he Allen West's long lost brother?

I remember when Allen West was a "rising star"^tm

[RussFeingoldWasRobbed]

Jon Hoadley (a candidate in MI-03) has commissioned a poll for his race and comparable races in the same district.

Sample size: 400 likely voters
MoE 4.9%
Sampling period: May 2-5

Hoadley 38%
Upton 37%
Undecided 25%

At the presidential level:

Biden 47%
Trump 44%

At the senatorial level:

Peters 40%
James 39%

MI-06 but Trump is screwed if this is accurate. Whitmer won by 9 and couldn't win this district.

[RussFeingoldWasRobbed]

DCCC Internal for OH-01 shows Chabot +7 againt Schroder
https://twitter.com/Politics_Polls/status/1261383050480553993?s=20

If the presidential race is close nationally, this will probably be the result. But I'd keep an eye on this one if things start to get really bad for Trump

[RussFeingoldWasRobbed]

No ad buys in Austin despite there being 3-4 competitive seats there. Grossly incompetent.

As far as I can tell it's really just Wendy Davis where the Ds have a good recruit. And Davis has already been a monster fundraiser, TX 31 doesn't have another Hegar tier recruit which is what was really needed as its a bit redder and so is Tx 25. TX 10 should be competitive as Beto did carry it, so its worth a shot of course. TX 17th is a decent bit redder and Beto only barely got within single digits here so its Safe R(although I do wonder how Chet Edwards would have done here)
Inb4 republicans tell me that davis crashed in 2014.
She won a romney +9 suburban district in 2012.
In 2014 she collapsed to awful non white turnout but check her suburban white numbers. For example Sarah davis,s romney+15 , Clinton+15 district was almost carried by Wendy in 2014. Also her austin numbers were better than Obama in 2012. Shes perfect for a white district like tx 21

There’s a good chance Trump loses TX-21, TX-10 and TX-31. These seats were all within five points in 2018 even after being written off by the DCCC

Dccc gonna dccc. These bozos are spending hoardes of money on ME-2 instead even though everyone knows Golden has no chance

[RussFeingoldWasRobbed]

No ad buys in Austin despite there being 3-4 competitive seats there. Grossly incompetent.

As far as I can tell it's really just Wendy Davis where the Ds have a good recruit. And Davis has already been a monster fundraiser, TX 31 doesn't have another Hegar tier recruit which is what was really needed as its a bit redder and so is Tx 25. TX 10 should be competitive as Beto did carry it, so its worth a shot of course. TX 17th is a decent bit redder and Beto only barely got within single digits here so its Safe R(although I do wonder how Chet Edwards would have done here)
Inb4 republicans tell me that davis crashed in 2014.
She won a romney +9 suburban district in 2012.
In 2014 she collapsed to awful non white turnout but check her suburban white numbers. For example Sarah davis,s romney+15 , Clinton+15 district was almost carried by Wendy in 2014. Also her austin numbers were better than Obama in 2012. Shes perfect for a white district like tx 21

There’s a good chance Trump loses TX-21, TX-10 and TX-31. These seats were all within five points in 2018 even after being written off by the DCCC

Dccc gonna dccc. These bozos are spending hoardes of money on ME-2 instead even though everyone knows Golden has no chance

Err...Golden has a much better chance of winning than we do of picking up TX-10 or even coming within double-digits in TX-31. In fact, Golden is more likely than not going to win reelection.

Jdb, I'm pretty sure an intelligent person like you cannot seriously believe TX-10 and TX-31 are not competitive. Siegel slightly underarm Beto, but that was with little attention to the race and the DCCC not spending that much money on it. And TX-31 John Carter didnt even outrun Cruz! If money is spent on the race it will be competitive.
And no, Golden is not likely to win re election. It's possible but he's definitely the underdog at this point. The voters in the district are not progressives like the bernie cult insisted they were. You really think that Golden is going to win when they put a picture of him next to Kamala Harris in one of their dumb ads and claim "Jared Golden endorsed Joe Biden and Kamala Harris, who want to overturn hyde amendment and allow your taxpayer dollars to be used to fund infanticide." And it doesnt matter how moderate he is, if he endorses Biden/Harris, he'll be toast.

[RussFeingoldWasRobbed]

Why did Elisa Cardnell drop out?

[RussFeingoldWasRobbed]

Why did Elisa Cardnell drop out?

She finished a distant 2nd in round 1, wasn't raising enough money to win the runoff, and wanted people to have time to unite around Sima Ladjevardian's long-shot bid, especially as primaries are delayed this year. Class act.

That makes sense

[RussFeingoldWasRobbed]

https://twitter.com/kirk_bado/status/1276497038658715654

Would love to see prez #s here. Would not be surprised if Good lost in November.

> taking a D internal that shows their own candidate down 2 as a good sign for Dems

Never said it was a good sign, did I? I said I would not be surprised if Webb won in Nov. First of all, Good is only up 2, and we have 3/4 months to go, with 16% undecided. Riggleman didn't win by a whole lot in 2018, and this seat is open again. Not to mention, Good seems a bit too far right for the district.

But Corey Stewart wasnt?

[RussFeingoldWasRobbed]

https://twitter.com/kirk_bado/status/1277950774652424193

I’m not sure how much Dems want to invest in this race if Republicans are just gonna cut this district up in two years (much like OK-05 and GA-07).

Why are we throwing the towel in on redistricting? This is about the Integrity of our elections. We need to put the pressure on states to adopt these commissions. If Mike Madigan has to threaten to draw an 18-0 map to scare GOP in GA, FL, so be it!

[RussFeingoldWasRobbed]

New Crystal Ball Ratings:

https://twitter.com/NilesGApol/status/1278550568877854720?s=20

LOl Texas! Talk about a dummymander man!

[RussFeingoldWasRobbed]

LOL.
Another "Safe R without awful candidate" take bites the dust.
This should pit "KS is Safe R" to bed

[RussFeingoldWasRobbed]

https://twitter.com/PatrickSvitek/status/1287790516399214599

Buh buh but it's not there yet!

[RussFeingoldWasRobbed]

Colby College poll of ME-02

Golden (D-inc.): 45%
Craft (R): 33%
Other: 5%

https://t.co/bb15uw1OpO?amp=1

I'm going to be eating some Crow in november, aren't I?

[RussFeingoldWasRobbed]

MN-01 Victoria Research & Consulting/HMP (D internal)

Feehan (D) 48
Hagedorn (R-inc) 46

http://files.www.thehousemajoritypac.com/research/MN-01_poll.pdf

Doubtful we can still win a district like this, but it's easier than MN_08

[RussFeingoldWasRobbed]

Inside Elections with a ton of rating changes:

https://mobile.twitter.com/JacobRubashkin/status/1291804033368432641

LOL @ FL-26 at tilt D. Even with Gillum crashing with Cubans he still won this district. If Biden is winning FL, he likely carries this by double digits. Game over

[RussFeingoldWasRobbed]

TX-03 internal for Taylor shows him up 13 on Seikaly:

https://twitter.com/InsideElections/status/1294348072512888832?s=20

The presidential race in this district was not polled.

The way I look at internals like these is if you have numbers like this, your in a good position. But he likely won't even get half of that margin even if he wins. Split ticket voting is rarer and rarer

[RussFeingoldWasRobbed]

Why are dems wasting money on FL-26. It's basically Safe D.
 The GOP could nominate Abraham Lincoln's ghost and they wouldn't win this district in an environment like this(and no trumpbots, the generic ballot is not tightening.)

[RussFeingoldWasRobbed]

Thanks you two!

I really hope they're buying in TX-24 and/or elsewhere in the Dallas metro. TX-23 is important too, but it's such low-hanging fruit that I somewhat worry that the DCCC sees it as the only Texas district worth serious spending (Besides some minimal buys in the 10th & 22nd)

If anything, I can see TX-24 becoming a seat that the parties significantly reduce their spending in the fall. This district voted to the left of the state (in some cases by not-insignificant margins) in pretty much every statewide race in 2018 - most notably in the Senate election where Beto O'Rourke won by 3.5% - 6% to the left of the state. It also should be noted that this seat was heavily overlooked in 2018 at the House level and it ended up being close anyways. Jan McDowell only raised like $100K (or something pitifully low like that) for the entire cycle and ended up getting closer to winning than Siegel and Kulkarni (who both raised more money than her and got at least some attention from the national party).

Essentially, based on fundamentals alone this seat will flip if Texas is remotely competitive at the presidential level and the Democrats have a credible candidate (which it is and they do).

Of the competitive Texas races, I would say that 23 is Likely D, 24 is Lean D, and 10, 21, and 22 are the top-tier competitive races that are varying levels of tossups. I'm not convinced that the seats on the outer level of competitiveness (2, 3, 6, 25, 31) are going to flip, but I won't discount a potential upset.

TX-10 should go behind behind the other two. McCaul is decently strong and personally very wealthy, while Siegel is a weaker candidate than Davis or Kulkarni. I'm pretty sure he's a Berniecrat, which I doubt plays well in what is still a fairly Republican-leaning district.

LOL this meme needs to die. McCaul won by only 4 points in the district even though dems spent no money here. Cruz didn't win the district and I expect to be even worse for the more unpopular Trump. Siegel isn't the best candidate but from what we've seen candidate quality doesn't matter in these suburban districts. If Trump does worse then Cruz I don't see how McCaul wins

[RussFeingoldWasRobbed]

Originally posted in the MA-SEN thread:

https://jewishinsider.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/08/RABAJewish-Insider-MA01-August-2020.pdf

MA-01 Democratic Primary
RABA Research/Jewish Insider
August 23-24, 2020
518 likely voters
MoE: 4.3%

Neal 49%
Morse 40%
Not sure 12%

It should be noted this poll has Kennedy over Markey by 7% in this district and that's not what I would expect assuming the statewide Markey leads are as high as recent polls suggest, although the Senate primary isn't going to break completely along traditional progressive/moderate lines so I can't be too sure.

Nationally, we think of Western Massachusetts as this bastion of the left since it's part of greater Vermont culturally, and backed democratic candidates in tight races like the 2012 Senate election. The issue with this birds-eye perspective is that you ignore the people living and voting there. A brief examination of the residents would explain why this is not the first poll to have a Kennedy lead in Western MA. A lot of the rural democratic strength over there is thanks to eco-retirees, older people who retire close to nature rather than in the heat of Florida. It makes sense that older voters would go for the name that they have a positive association with, since they have lived through at least the glory days of Ted Kennedy.

Its Berkshire that's causing Kennedy to lead there
Older WWC county, Hillary-Bernie-Biden

[RussFeingoldWasRobbed]

https://twitter.com/kylegriffin1/status/1310655515022839810?s=21

Good that they are spending on AR-02 but they cannot seriously still think MN-01 is winnable.

[RussFeingoldWasRobbed]

https://twitter.com/kylegriffin1/status/1310655515022839810?s=21

Good that they are spending on AR-02 but they cannot seriously still think MN-01 is winnable.

Id give Ds a 25-30% chance in AR02 and MN02 is around 15% but one is more valuable due to redistricting being more likely to be controlled by Ds in Minnesota while AR02 either has little rock cracked or made a touch more red.

Were doing redistricting reform in congress so it doesnt matter. MN-01 is not voting for Biden and I doubt feehan does any better.

[RussFeingoldWasRobbed]

https://twitter.com/kirk_bado/status/1314273845252104194?s=20

https://twitter.com/BenJKest/status/1314323590951641094?s=20

Grifters gonna grift

[RussFeingoldWasRobbed]

I hope people aren't dumb enough to believe that

[RussFeingoldWasRobbed]

I have a feeling ME-02 will be the MN-07 (2018) of this cycle. Polls show pie in the sky leads for Golden, and Republicans decide to concede the race, and while Golden ends up winning, it's by a very underwhelming margin, and it ends up closer than many races Republicans invested heavily in.

Ikr! These people have learned nothing from 2018