California Senate 2024 - Schiff (D) vs Garvey (R)

[Citizen (The) Doctor]

Barbara Lee running probably also consolidates the NorCal Dem vote, which would be huge. I don't see Khanna getting in if she does.

[coloradocowboi]

Yeah, fair enough. Like I said, I'd vote for her, but I can't see how she'd have enough support to win except on the principle that that one of the senatorial seats has to belong to a black woman. This is, basically, what Gavin Newsom's approach to politics is, and it was in that sense that she was mentioned as a candidate for Kamala Harris's seat a couple years ago. It's tokenistic and unfair, but I don't think that there are any politicians in statewide office who are allowed to be anything but tokens of their particular identity group except Gavin Newsom.

First of all, Gavin Newsom is a puppet that various lobbyists wield, and the most insane thing about his pledge to give this seat to a Black woman is that he clearly had someone in mind (London Breed) who is the exact kind of "token" you are talking about....

But Barbara Lee is gonna leverage his promise and where you are dead wrong is that she's not a token anything. You might not be very familiar with her, especially if you're young. But she is a legend in her own right, and I suspect the above hypothesis that Khanna is being deferential to her is correct.

I think she would perform well in Mendocino, Napa, Sonoma, Sacramento area, all the college towns, all of the Bay Area including and especially Marin (which is a treasure trove of D voters along with SF). There are more people in SoCal, but also more of a likelihood that Schiff and Porter will split the D votes. If it's these three, it's a crap shoot who gets in, and also likely given how they split the vote that a Republican could get in with one of them too.

[H.E. VOLODYMYR ZELENKSYY]

Yeah, fair enough. Like I said, I'd vote for her, but I can't see how she'd have enough support to win except on the principle that that one of the senatorial seats has to belong to a black woman. This is, basically, what Gavin Newsom's approach to politics is, and it was in that sense that she was mentioned as a candidate for Kamala Harris's seat a couple years ago. It's tokenistic and unfair, but I don't think that there are any politicians in statewide office who are allowed to be anything but tokens of their particular identity group except Gavin Newsom.

First of all, Gavin Newsom is a puppet that various lobbyists wield, and the most insane thing about his pledge to give this seat to a Black woman is that he clearly had someone in mind (London Breed) who is the exact kind of "token" you are talking about....

But Barbara Lee is gonna leverage his promise and where you are dead wrong is that she's not a token anything. You might not be very familiar with her, especially if you're young. But she is a legend in her own right, and I suspect the above hypothesis that Khanna is being deferential to her is correct.

I think she would perform well in Mendocino, Napa, Sonoma, Sacramento area, all the college towns, all of the Bay Area including and especially Marin (which is a treasure trove of D voters along with SF). There are more people in SoCal, but also more of a likelihood that Schiff and Porter will split the D votes. If it's these three, it's a crap shoot who gets in, and also likely given how they split the vote that a Republican could get in with one of them too.

I don’t think Xahar is saying that Lee is a token, just that she’s viewed as such by the CADP establishment.

[President Johnson]

#AnybodybutFeinstein

However, I sometimes feel like Porter is somewhat overrated. California has several good options in their congressional delegation. Adam Schiff and Nanette Barragan would be my favorites, though I'm not sure either will run. The former probaly does have the statewide name rec to launch a winning bid in a state as large as California.

[coloradocowboi]

Yeah, fair enough. Like I said, I'd vote for her, but I can't see how she'd have enough support to win except on the principle that that one of the senatorial seats has to belong to a black woman. This is, basically, what Gavin Newsom's approach to politics is, and it was in that sense that she was mentioned as a candidate for Kamala Harris's seat a couple years ago. It's tokenistic and unfair, but I don't think that there are any politicians in statewide office who are allowed to be anything but tokens of their particular identity group except Gavin Newsom.

First of all, Gavin Newsom is a puppet that various lobbyists wield, and the most insane thing about his pledge to give this seat to a Black woman is that he clearly had someone in mind (London Breed) who is the exact kind of "token" you are talking about....

But Barbara Lee is gonna leverage his promise and where you are dead wrong is that she's not a token anything. You might not be very familiar with her, especially if you're young. But she is a legend in her own right, and I suspect the above hypothesis that Khanna is being deferential to her is correct.

I think she would perform well in Mendocino, Napa, Sonoma, Sacramento area, all the college towns, all of the Bay Area including and especially Marin (which is a treasure trove of D voters along with SF). There are more people in SoCal, but also more of a likelihood that Schiff and Porter will split the D votes. If it's these three, it's a crap shoot who gets in, and also likely given how they split the vote that a Republican could get in with one of them too.

I don’t think Xahar is saying that Lee is a token, just that she’s viewed as such by the CADP establishment.

Or the public. But I still think that’s an uninformed position. In progressive politics she’s long been a household name.

[Stand With Israel. Crush Hamas]

Yeah, Schiff is definitely the right candidate here and the fact that he's likely to hold his powder until Feinstein actually decides to retire will help him get establishment support. There is no real risk of two strong Republicans in a crowded primary, so there's no risk of letting three credible Dems battle it out, but I think this field will probably scare off other candidates like Khanna (hopefully) and Barragan (unfortunate).

[Ragnaroni]

Yeah, Schiff is definitely the right candidate here and the fact that he's likely to hold his powder until Feinstein actually decides to retire will help him get establishment support. There is no real risk of two strong Republicans in a crowded primary, so there's no risk of letting three credible Dems battle it out, but I think this field will probably scare off other candidates like Khanna (hopefully) and Barragan (unfortunate).

I don't even know who the CAGOP would run but it would be some weak sauce state senator or something. A half try.

[xavier110]

Curious to see how much ‘Porter is a loathsome personality’ sticks and how many enemies among Ds she’s made along the way. I’ve never heard great things about her…

[Stand With Israel. Crush Hamas]

Curious to see how much ‘Porter is a loathsome personality’ sticks and how many enemies among Ds she’s made along the way. I’ve never heard great things about her…

I don't think Porter is as extreme a case, but this is almost definitely what screwed up Yuh-Line Niou in NY-10. It definitely does play a role when your colleagues don't like you.

[coloradocowboi]

Curious to see how much ‘Porter is a loathsome personality’ sticks and how many enemies among Ds she’s made along the way. I’ve never heard great things about her…

I don't think Porter is as extreme a case, but this is almost definitely what screwed up Yuh-Line Niou in NY-10. It definitely does play a role when your colleagues don't like you.

Barbara Lee is, by all accounts, well-liked FTR

I'm not sure about your analysis of Schiff. He alienates as many constituencies as he attracts. It's a very unclear picture.

His pros: he's moderate, he's been on CNN and MSNBC a lot, he's from the vote-rich (but low primary turnout!) SFV and would likely be very competitive in similar places like Riverside, OC, SD, he's very good on the "law and order" issue

His cons: he's an older white guy, he's disliked on the left and the right (which obviously the former matters more in the primary, but Porter's poll suggests may matter in the general with GOP), his larger geographic base is Los Angeles where he will probably still get massacred by Porter and/or Lee, he did worse against Maebe a Girl than he did against a Republican in a higher turnout year

I think both Schiff and Porter, being white candidates in a state where diversity and representation matters a lot (regardless of how ppl in this forum pontificate on the issues), need to run pitch perfect campaigns to make it into the top 2 with either Lee or even a Republican. They will both be overreliant in the primary on swing voters, while Lee, the GOP candidate, and others who may run lock up guaranteed constituencies. There is a lot of risk in their candidacies. Lee can only go up, while they have little room to grow given their colossal name recognition.

In the end, there is a lot left unsettled. Will Khanna go for this? I doubt it. He's gonna run for governor. But what does that do to folks like Eleni Kounalakis and London Breed, who probably don't want to run against him. If Lee doesn't run, I expect Breed will and be very competitive. After all, she's probably as likely to win a Senate race as she is re-election at this point in time. Is there an opening for a Hispanic or Asian candidate? Who does the GOP run and how do they do?

This is gonna be a really fun and wide open race.

[Progressive Pessimist]

I think Porter would make an excellent Senator BUT I do agree that it's kind of tactless to announce this bid when Feinstein hasn't announced her plans yet and amidst a natural disaster in the state.

[Senator Spiral]

I think Porter would make an excellent Senator BUT I do agree that it's kind of tactless to announce this bid when Feinstein hasn't announced her plans yet and amidst a natural disaster in the state.

Speaks to her natural instincts as an Elizabeth Warren Democrat.

[Pres Mike]

If Feinstein had to retire, I could see Barbara Lee being appointed caretaker. A nice way to cap her long career

[Zedonathin2020]

If Feinstein had to retire, I could see Barbara Lee being appointed caretaker. A nice way to cap her long career

The problem with Lee is that she's 76 now, will be 78 on Election Day, and would be 84 in 2030. Why would Californian's replace the almost 90 year old DiFi with somebody almost as old as her?

[prag_prog]

I would guess Schiff is probably lot more hated than Porter among Cali Republicans and that might probably be a deciding factor in general election if Schiff, Porter are top2 candidates in the primary

[Chancellor Tanterterg]

Endorsed, regardless of who else runs.  


Side note: Porter was clearly right to fire that moron for ignoring the office’s COVID testing policies and then proceeding to give her COVID; if some selfish dumba** gave me COVID and put my and my family’s lives at risk with their stupidity, you better believe I’d fire them too!  This isn’t a scandal and there is no good-faith argument for pretending that it is

[Utah Neolib]

Endorsed, regardless of who else runs.  


Side note: Porter was clearly right to fire that moron for ignoring the office’s COVID testing policies and then proceeding to give her COVID; if some selfish dumba** gave me COVID and put my and my family’s lives at risk with their stupidity, you better believe I’d fire them too!  This isn’t a scandal and there is no good-faith argument for pretending that it is

The person was not ignoring the office COVID policies from what we know. Would you fire someone for getting a disease outside of their control? No one purposely gets a disease and firing someone for it is genuinely misguided.

[Roll Roons]

Endorsed, regardless of who else runs. 


Side note: Porter was clearly right to fire that moron for ignoring the office’s COVID testing policies and then proceeding to give her COVID; if some selfish dumba** gave me COVID and put my and my family’s lives at risk with their stupidity, you better believe I’d fire them too!  This isn’t a scandal and there is no good-faith argument for pretending that it is

That staffer's friend was brutally murdered, so I suspect she had bigger things on her mind than testing for a disease that's not even really a threat anymore.

Seriously, it's one thing if this story happened in May 2020. But imagine still being scared of COVID in summer 2022. That's not the kind of person we need in a high-profile position like being a Senator from the country's most populous state. Katie Porter can f**k off to Communist China where she would be much more at home.

[KaiserDave]

There was a time when I'd insta-support Porter for this office, but gosh, those reports are really bad on her treatment of staff. Would probably prefer Khanna at this point, but I've heard (unrelated) not-so-good stuff about him.

[tmthforu94]

I can't speak to the high turnover, but in regards to the text screenshots - this employee wasn't fired, she was part of a fellowship and her time on staff was about to expire anyways. Porter was merely telling her she would be working remote for her final weeks, her office clarified this. Her last response was still cold, though. But the headline of "Porter fires a staffer for having COVID" is not accurate.

Porter seems to be about the best bet we can get out of California.

[Chancellor Tanterterg]

Endorsed, regardless of who else runs.  


Side note: Porter was clearly right to fire that moron for ignoring the office’s COVID testing policies and then proceeding to give her COVID; if some selfish dumba** gave me COVID and put my and my family’s lives at risk with their stupidity, you better believe I’d fire them too!  This isn’t a scandal and there is no good-faith argument for pretending that it is

The person was not ignoring the office COVID policies from what we know. Would you fire someone for getting a disease outside of their control? No one purposely gets a disease and firing someone for it is genuinely misguided.

If she’s as irresponsible as she was when she was with Porter’s office, then I wouldn’t be surprised if she got herself sick by doing something similarly stupid tbh.  I’d definitely fire someone for violating office COVID policies and giving me COVID as a direct result, if that’s what you’re asking.

Endorsed, regardless of who else runs.  


Side note: Porter was clearly right to fire that moron for ignoring the office’s COVID testing policies and then proceeding to give her COVID; if some selfish dumba** gave me COVID and put my and my family’s lives at risk with their stupidity, you better believe I’d fire them too!  This isn’t a scandal and there is no good-faith argument for pretending that it is

That staffer's friend was brutally murdered, so I suspect she had bigger things on her mind than testing for a disease that's not even really a threat anymore.  

Seriously, it's one thing if this story happened in May 2020. But imagine still being scared of COVID in summer 2022. That's not the kind of person we need in a high-profile position like being a Senator from the country's most populous state. Katie Porter can f**k off to Communist China where she would be much more at home.

- It sucks that her friend got murdered, but that doesn’t give her the right to put Porter and her family’s lives in danger with her selfishness, stupidity, and irresponsibility (to say nothing of everyone else in Porter’s office’s lives).

- Re: COVID: With all due respect, you have no idea what you’re talking about.  Incidentally, Communist China’s policies on COVID seem to be far closer to what you want than the policies at Porter’s office.

[ProgressiveModerate]

This is still *extremely* unlikely, but what would happen if somehow too many Ds try to run for this seat, all split the primary vote, and allow for a R v R GE matchup. In a Trump state Senate District, the reversed happened and ultimately Ds won the seat; just looking at the State Senate results it seems so out of place lol.

Also, I don't think Feinstein 2024 is a serious scenario. She's just so old, and either way most of the public seems to be of the consensus that her time is up even if she did  run for re-election.

I rlly hope whoever gets this seat is someone younger and inspiring since under no scenario will Ds need to be worried about the GE here. I don't just want some rando to hold down this seat for possibly decades.

[NewYorkExpress]

Unless for some reason Newsom decides to jump in, rather than run for President, Becerra leaves the Cabinet to run for the seat, or another statewide officeholder decides to run (Bonta, Ma, Kounalakis, Thurmond in that order), I would say, Porter is the favorite, especially over any other member of the Congressional delegation.

As for the Republicans, Darrell Issa could win, but he'd have to be facing Feinstein or another Republican in November to have a realistic chance. Any other Republican only has a chance in an R v R race.

[Pres Mike]

If Feinstein had to retire, I could see Barbara Lee being appointed caretaker. A nice way to cap her long career

The problem with Lee is that she's 76 now, will be 78 on Election Day, and would be 84 in 2030. Why would Californian's replace the almost 90 year old DiFi with somebody almost as old as her?

I meant that if Feinstein were to retire in the next year and Newsom had to pick someone to replace her.

I could see Lee serving until 2025, which Porter takes over.

[Хahar 🤔]

This is still *extremely* unlikely, but what would happen if somehow too many Ds try to run for this seat, all split the primary vote, and allow for a R v R GE matchup. In a Trump state Senate District, the reversed happened and ultimately Ds won the seat; just looking at the State Senate results it seems so out of place lol.

There are a couple reasons that this won't happen. The first is that it's hard to imagine that two different Republicans will have enough name recognition to get somewhere and that they'll split the vote in an exactly optimal way. The second is that the California Democratic Party is disciplined and this would be the dooomsday scenario. It's come close to happening once (the 2014 election for controller) and there hasn't been any chance of it happening for any statewide election since and I don't expect that to change. The fact that there'll be substantial out-of-state money coming in (I expect Katie Porter in particular to be able to raise basically unlimited money from small donors) changes the calculation a little bit, but you may notice that in California statewide election, the Democratic field really narrows as the election draws near. Non-viable candidates won't have a chance.