California Senate 2024 - Schiff (D) vs Garvey (R)

[Citizen (The) Doctor]

Barbara Lee running probably also consolidates the NorCal Dem vote, which would be huge. I don't see Khanna getting in if she does.

[Citizen (The) Doctor]

I'm hoping Johnson and Caruso do run because it'll just make things so much more fun going into June.

[Citizen (The) Doctor]

How is this disqualifying? Most Democrats have supported Israel’s government for decades. Why is suddenly not OK to support Netanyahu now, but it was 10 years ago?

Because he left the realm of regular democratic leaders and entered the realm of Orbans with the new "reform", which she's legitimizing here.

Apparently she still thinks she's dealing with the same old center-right but democratic leader Bibi from when Obama and Trump were president. Schiff, who you'd expect to be to her right on this, criticized him.

Heck, even Bloomberg of all people is starting to come out against him.

I just keep getting amateur hour vibes from Katie Porter. A lot of progressive politicians do this: pivot hard to Zionism as a cheap way to become centrist. The problem is that most Zionist voters aren't die-hard Bibi Netanyahu fans and Adam Schiff has endless cred on this issue and IIRC is also Jewish. The only people I can even imagine this pleasing or placating are hard-right Orthodox and Conservative Jewish people who probably wouldn't vote for any Democrat least of all Katie Porter lol

My prediction is that Katie is gonna spend the most money in the campaign but wildly vacillate on her brand and issue positions in search of an audience. This is exactly how Elizabeth Warren's presidential campaign also went down. It's telling that Katie should be the undisputed frontrunner but has less establishment support than a corporate puppet and former "cop" despised by the left and right and an 80-year-old former Black Panther socialist from Oakland. The opinion polls are meaningless rn, basically barometers of "do you know who this is?" I don't see this getting any better for Katie Porter, and it's kinda a bummer to me now that she won't hold her OC house seat.

Eh Katie has less establishment support not because of ideology but because California state politics is very much its own machine and rewards those who have invested in it. Her opponents both have connections and reputations stretching back decades hitting different levers of power in different parts of the state.

Porter is essentially the outsider in this race in a very practical sense.

[Citizen (The) Doctor]

If anyone is vying for higher political office in CA outside of Schiff and Porter, it would strategically make the most sense to back Lee; being in that camp provides you the opportunity for insider access into the state's political infrastructure and it's highly likely that Lee will only serve one-two terms, as opposed to the others who may be lifers.

[Citizen (The) Doctor]

Why on earth can't Feinstein just resign when she is like 90 and her current health condition isn't good ?

If Feinstein would resign then Newsom will have appointed both California senators, the Attorney General, and the Secretary of State. That’s a lot of control/power for one person

I seriously don't care tbh...Newsom surely can find someone that he can appoint temporarily for 1 1/2 year. Feinstein's absence is holding up lot of judges appointments and after 2024, it might take a long time for Dems to even get an opportunity to appoint any new liberal judges

Maybe Jerry Brown will finally get to be Senator of California

[Citizen (The) Doctor]

In case DiFi resigns in the coming weeks or months: With the campaign de facto ongoing already and high-profile candidates in, it seems reasonable to assume Newsom would appoint a placeholder who's not running for a full term in 2024? Who could that be?

I could see him backtrack to appoint Jerry Brown or Cruz Bustamante. 

[Citizen (The) Doctor]

Looks like this potential self-funder is getting in as a Democrat, her pollster is Lake Research which has a middling reputation at best and is the firm that tends to get lower-tier Democratic candidates especially in statewide races.

https://twitter.com/ccadelago/status/1669334397814996994?s=20

why

[Citizen (The) Doctor]

The age issue is never going to stick with Barbara Lee. The people who criticize Feinstein for not retiring are the same people who would be Lee's natural base.

Has Schiff more access to big donors through Pelosi's network or generally more grassroots support?

Schiff is much more cozy with SoCal/Hollywood big money than any of the top 3.

[Citizen (The) Doctor]

Steve Garvey won a World Series. Herschel Walker never won a Super Bowl.

No doubt Garvey was the more successful professional athlete, but Walker is arguably one of the 5 best college football players of all time and in GA that matters more than what he did in the NFL. Plus Walker's prime was a decade more recent.

California is too big and complex for that kind of thing to work. You either need to be globally renowned (aka an actor) or you have to run more locally (if LeBron ran for a city council seat in LA for example he'd have a good shot).