California Senate 2024 - Schiff (D) vs Garvey (R)

[NewYorkExpress]

I don't think anyone in the Congressional delegation runs against Feinstein, quite honestly.

I would look at current and recent statewide downballot officeholders as the likely Feinstein opponents in 2024. So, Kounlakis, possibly Becerra if he decides to leave the Cabinet, also probably Ma and Yee seem like plausible candidates in 2024.

[NewYorkExpress]

Unless for some reason Newsom decides to jump in, rather than run for President, Becerra leaves the Cabinet to run for the seat, or another statewide officeholder decides to run (Bonta, Ma, Kounalakis, Thurmond in that order), I would say, Porter is the favorite, especially over any other member of the Congressional delegation.

As for the Republicans, Darrell Issa could win, but he'd have to be facing Feinstein or another Republican in November to have a realistic chance. Any other Republican only has a chance in an R v R race.

[NewYorkExpress]

Really, Newsom shouldn't have backed himself into the corner of saying he'd only appoint an African-American woman.

The best appointment, really is Kounalakis, because even if she did run, she'd be no threat in a primary, and she probably won't run because she wants to be Governor more.

[NewYorkExpress]

Apparently there's been some idle speculation about Oprah being appointed to the Senate if Feinstein is unable to finish the term.

Among the many plot lines in the Dianne Feinstein saga is Gov. Gavin Newsom's pledge to appoint a Black woman to replace the 89-year-old should a vacancy arise before her term expires in January 2025.


He made that promise during his 2021 anti-recall campaign, and a new article from the Associated Press' Michael R. Blood conveys the extent to which the governor may have boxed himself in. While many Black Democrats expect the governor to follow through on his pledge, the two candidates who seemed the most likely at the time of the pledge — Reps. Barbara Lee and Karen Bass — may no longer be options. Lee is running against Rep. Adam Schiff to succeed Feinstein, so Newsom may want to avoid tilting the scales in that race. Meanwhile, Bass just began her tenure as mayor of Los Angeles.

That leaves the “caretaker” route, in which Newsom appoints someone who doesn't enter the Senate race, and the Associated Press story provided just one name that has been “floated in California circles” as a caretaker pick: celebrity talk show host Oprah Winfrey.

[NewYorkExpress]

I mean does she really though? She had a great launch yes with donors from across the country but when people from outside Cali learn about Lee especially if a national figure like Bernie endorses her, will as many people keep there donations to her up? One of the reasons she had such a successful launch too was there's no major national races going on now. As we get closer to November there will be the presidential race, the national Senate race and the house. Most national donors are gonna put Katie's Senate race at a much lower priority while all the in state organizations and donors who will be backing Lee will still have a vested interest in the race and it will be one of there top priorities.

Honestly I think this race will be over after the March Primary.  With three major Democratic candidates I think it's likely a Republican finishes in the top 2.

Rs aren't gonna invest in this race there's already 6 republican candidates in and that will likely grow a bit. Rs actually prefer a democrat vs democrat runoff so d money is wasted there instead of the competitive house seats. Not saying a republican making the runoff is impossible, but I wouldn't hedge my bets on it.

The thing is, a D v D race in California arguably could cost Republicans House seats there. They should be trying to get one of their candidates into the runoff, because that would help them in the House races more than it would hurt them.

[NewYorkExpress]

Honestly, though there's no way Newsom will do it, Nancy Pelosi being a Senator for a year would be an excellent capstone to her career.