Virginia Mega Thread: The Youngkin Administration

[Matty]

I know most of you guys are unwilling to attack your own, but Terry McAulife flip flopping on qualified immunity for police is just absurd.

It makes no political sense and even worse, it makes him look like a whore.

Qualified immunity polls like hemorrhoids when voters are told what it does.

Not sure what the calculation is there.

I also think endorsing that abortion bill is risky. It makes legal in VA certain abortion practices that are very unpopular among the general population. 2nd and 3rd term abortions for mental health reasons.

Not that debates matter much.

i do think youngkin needs to run a more "I will provide balance against the dems in the state chamber" than a "I will do this and that" campaign.

that's how hogan and baker do so well in states a lot bluer than VA.

[jamestroll]

I was voter #3 in fairfax county today!

I voted for Terry!

[slothdem]

Dem polls have McAuliffe up by mid-single digits. They aren't being released because they are concerned about complacency, and would rather send the message that the race is close. What's happened in California has vindicated that strategy, I think.

A few pages ago, MT made a comment about how the 2013 map wasn't necessarily suggestive of "weak dem turnout." That year, Mac got 48k votes in Arlington. In 2017, Ralph got 68k votes in Arlington. If Mac matches or improves on Ralph's raw vote totals in the blue sections of the state (which should be easy to do given the fast population growth) then there isn't really a path for Youngkin.

[jamestroll]

Why is there a cult following behind this Trumpkin guy???

There is nothing special about him. Literally nothing!!

[Non Swing Voter]

LOL @ thinking qualified immunity is going to help Youngkin in this race.  The more any police issue is discussed the more Youngkin is screwed.  

BTW, Youngkin is pure evil.  I listened to that audio of him on vaccines again.  What a disgrace.

[Non Swing Voter]

Why is there a cult following behind this Trumpkin guy???

There is nothing special about him. Literally nothing!!

what cult are you talking about?  He's spamming the airwaves and literally no-one cares.  He inspired weak turnout in the GOP primary or convention or whatever they refer to it as. 

[Progressive Pessimist]

The McAuliffe campaign is probably going to go into onslaught mode against Youngkin in these final few weeks, when they'd be the most potent, if that audio leak is anything to go by.

I predicted the election ending up as McAuliffe+6 for awhile, but I might bump that up to McAuliffe+7, at least, now.

[Non Swing Voter]

The McAuliffe campaign is probably going to go into onslaught mode against Youngkin in these final few weeks, when they'd be the most potent, if that audio leak is anything to go by.

I predicted the election ending up as McAuliffe+6 for awhile, but I might bump that up to McAuliffe+7, at least, now.

Agreed.  It's about to get really nasty.  And I agree with the post above, the reason they aren't releasing stuff is so there isn't complacency.  T Mac doesn't need to persuade anyone, he just needs to get his people out.

But if the GOP thinks there is going to be complacency here that is very wishful thinking.  A significant portion of the Dem base is highly educated NOVA voters.  They are going to turn out.  If anything I'm gonna be watching the turnout in SW VA to see if there's significant drop-off without Trump on the ballot. 

[KaiserDave]

This race has always been Safe D, but Youngkin is really performing pathetically. Sad!

[Duke of York]

https://www.13newsnow.com/article/news/politics/virginia-house-candidate-blasted-tweet/291-023fb29d-8830-4866-8baf-1ca1d3ab6090

Virginia House candidate blasted for insulting tweet about House Speaker

[beaver2.0]

https://www.13newsnow.com/article/news/politics/virginia-house-candidate-blasted-tweet/291-023fb29d-8830-4866-8baf-1ca1d3ab6090

Virginia House candidate blasted for insulting tweet about House Speaker

I saw it and I'm not sure if it is actually anti-Semitic (I had no idea she is Jewish and her names are not stereotypically Jewish in my mind) but it was bad regardless. 

Also the whole "apology' was even worse.  I have more respect for someone that makes a bad insult and then defends it than someone that says it was wrong and then tries to deflect blame.

[Non Swing Voter]

This race has always been Safe D, but Youngkin is really performing pathetically. Sad!

Imagine blowing so much of his own money and then running such a weak campaign with it. 

[Progressive Pessimist]

The McAuliffe campaign is probably going to go into onslaught mode against Youngkin in these final few weeks, when they'd be the most potent, if that audio leak is anything to go by.

I predicted the election ending up as McAuliffe+6 for awhile, but I might bump that up to McAuliffe+7, at least, now.

Agreed.  It's about to get really nasty.  And I agree with the post above, the reason they aren't releasing stuff is so there isn't complacency.  T Mac doesn't need to persuade anyone, he just needs to get his people out.

But if the GOP thinks there is going to be complacency here that is very wishful thinking.  A significant portion of the Dem base is highly educated NOVA voters.  They are going to turn out.  If anything I'm gonna be watching the turnout in SW VA to see if there's significant drop-off without Trump on the ballot. 

Base turnout is definitely the future of our elections as our political divides continue increasing. It's why fear works so well as a motivator, for both sides. Of course Democrats have many more justified reasons to fear their state turning into Florida or Texas than Republicans do of critical race theory.

[jamestroll]

some one help me! i can't take it any more.. those youngkin signs I am seeing are going to make me have a nervous breakdown

[wbrocks67]

There were 14,000 in person votes Friday/Sat

https://www.vpap.org/elections/early-voting/

[SnowLabrador]

There were 14,000 in person votes Friday/Sat

https://www.vpap.org/elections/early-voting/

Is that a lot?

[Skill and Chance]

There were 14,000 in person votes Friday/Sat

https://www.vpap.org/elections/early-voting/

Is that a lot?

IDK.  There were 125K total early votes in the June Dem primary and over 2.8M early votes in the 2020 presidential election.  Until 2020, VA required an excuse to vote before election day, so there isn't anything else to compare to. 

[Non Swing Voter]

There were 14,000 in person votes Friday/Sat

https://www.vpap.org/elections/early-voting/

Is that a lot?

It is more than I would have expected for a Governor's race more than a month out and with few if any mail ballots trickling in yet.  That said it's the first day so maybe there were heavy partisans waiting to go to the polls and the numbers will subside.  I'd say if the numbers stay at that clip for the next week then it's a lot. 

One thing you have to keep in mind is that big counties like Fairfax usually only have one central location to early vote early on.  This doesn't sound bad but Fairfax is a huge county with tons of traffic and most people would rather wait until they open regional polling places or just vote on Election Day.  I plan to vote on Election Day.

[wbrocks67]

9/16:
In-Person: 5
Mail: 251

9/17:
In-Person: 13,506
Mail: 403

9/18:
In-Person: 851
Mail: 11

Is there not in-person voting on weekends?

[Skill and Chance]

9/16:
In-Person: 5
Mail: 251

9/17:
In-Person: 13,506
Mail: 403

9/18:
In-Person: 851
Mail: 11

Is there not in-person voting on weekends?

Generally no.  Counties are only required to have it the last 2 Saturdays before the election.  Fairfax, the biggest county, had it open this Saturday, but that is not common.

[MATTROSE94]

The truth is that Youngkin could  win and this will be within 5 or 6 points either way maximum. This is the only major race the GOP has a shot at this year so expect them to fight hard for it.

Larry Elder had a 50-50 shot and Jack Ciattarelli has a non-zero chance as well.

Emphasis on this word. That is not the case anymore.

And while I'll agree with you on Ciatarelli, technically, it's still barely 5% at best.

My blurb about Larry Elder aged well lol. Still, I am thinking that Phil Murphy will only win by 8% due to a backlash against his COVID policies among Jews, Catholics, and African American and Hispanic non essential business owners in Newark, Trenton, Elizabeth, Paterson, and Camden. Additionally, Glenn Trumpkin seems to be gaining quite a bit of ground lately due to the fact that the Republicans are likely going to get a pretty big dead cat bounce in NOVA.

[wbrocks67]

The truth is that Youngkin could  win and this will be within 5 or 6 points either way maximum. This is the only major race the GOP has a shot at this year so expect them to fight hard for it.

Larry Elder had a 50-50 shot and Jack Ciattarelli has a non-zero chance as well.

Emphasis on this word. That is not the case anymore.

And while I'll agree with you on Ciatarelli, technically, it's still barely 5% at best.

My blurb about Larry Elder aged well lol. Still, I am thinking that Phil Murphy will only win by 8% due to a backlash against his COVID policies among Jews, Catholics, and African American and Hispanic non essential business owners in Newark, Trenton, Elizabeth, Paterson, and Camden. Additionally, Glenn Trumpkin seems to be gaining quite a bit of ground lately due to the fact that the Republicans are likely going to get a pretty big dead cat bounce in NOVA.

I don't mean to derail this thread with NJ stuff, but where is the concrete evidence of this? NJ has actually been doing very well with COVID since last year when Murphy took restrictions, and seems most people in the state are supportive of the measures he's taken, especially given COVID being under control in the state and things still being able to be open.

[Non Swing Voter]

The truth is that Youngkin could  win and this will be within 5 or 6 points either way maximum. This is the only major race the GOP has a shot at this year so expect them to fight hard for it.

Larry Elder had a 50-50 shot and Jack Ciattarelli has a non-zero chance as well.

Emphasis on this word. That is not the case anymore.

And while I'll agree with you on Ciatarelli, technically, it's still barely 5% at best.

My blurb about Larry Elder aged well lol. Still, I am thinking that Phil Murphy will only win by 8% due to a backlash against his COVID policies among Jews, Catholics, and African American and Hispanic non essential business owners in Newark, Trenton, Elizabeth, Paterson, and Camden. Additionally, Glenn Trumpkin seems to be gaining quite a bit of ground lately due to the fact that the Republicans are likely going to get a pretty big dead cat bounce in NOVA.

what?

[wbrocks67]

T-Mac better be putting that college audio in ads ASAP.

[Non Swing Voter]

T-Mac better be putting that college audio in ads ASAP.

He should save it for a week or two when people start thinking about this more.  If he releases it right now it will get lost under new ads and/or people will get desensitized to it.  It's extremely damaging and he has to release it at the perfect time.  That audio is game over for Youngkin.