Virginia Mega Thread: The Youngkin Administration

[MATTROSE94]

Terry McAuliffe is definitely the favorite to win this race, though I am not ruling out Glenn Youngkin pulling an upset.

[MATTROSE94]

The truth is that Youngkin could  win and this will be within 5 or 6 points either way maximum. This is the only major race the GOP has a shot at this year so expect them to fight hard for it.

Larry Elder had a 50-50 shot and Jack Ciattarelli has a non-zero chance as well.

[MATTROSE94]

The truth is that Youngkin could  win and this will be within 5 or 6 points either way maximum. This is the only major race the GOP has a shot at this year so expect them to fight hard for it.

Larry Elder had a 50-50 shot and Jack Ciattarelli has a non-zero chance as well.

Emphasis on this word. That is not the case anymore.

And while I'll agree with you on Ciatarelli, technically, it's still barely 5% at best.

My blurb about Larry Elder aged well lol. Still, I am thinking that Phil Murphy will only win by 8% due to a backlash against his COVID policies among Jews, Catholics, and African American and Hispanic non essential business owners in Newark, Trenton, Elizabeth, Paterson, and Camden. Additionally, Glenn Trumpkin seems to be gaining quite a bit of ground lately due to the fact that the Republicans are likely going to get a pretty big dead cat bounce in NOVA.

[MATTROSE94]

The truth is that Youngkin could  win and this will be within 5 or 6 points either way maximum. This is the only major race the GOP has a shot at this year so expect them to fight hard for it.

Larry Elder had a 50-50 shot and Jack Ciattarelli has a non-zero chance as well.

Emphasis on this word. That is not the case anymore.

And while I'll agree with you on Ciatarelli, technically, it's still barely 5% at best.

My blurb about Larry Elder aged well lol. Still, I am thinking that Phil Murphy will only win by 8% due to a backlash against his COVID policies among Jews, Catholics, and African American and Hispanic non essential business owners in Newark, Trenton, Elizabeth, Paterson, and Camden. Additionally, Glenn Trumpkin seems to be gaining quite a bit of ground lately due to the fact that the Republicans are likely going to get a pretty big dead cat bounce in NOVA.

I don't mean to derail this thread with NJ stuff, but where is the concrete evidence of this? NJ has actually been doing very well with COVID since last year when Murphy took restrictions, and seems most people in the state are supportive of the measures he's taken, especially given COVID being under control in the state and things still being able to be open.

A lot of Orthodox Jewish voters and Traditionalist Catholic voters in Monmouth and Ocean County despise Phil Murphy over the fact that he placed stringent capacity restrictions on houses of worship. Additionally, the capacity restrictions and closure of non essential businesses seemed to have severely impacted African Americans and Hispanics in larger cities in New Jersey (an overwhelming majority of African Americans and Hispanics that I know are owners of non essential businesses). Because of these factors, Jack Ciatarelli should easily win Monmouth and Ocean County by 10% and 50% respectively and could bring the Democratic margins in the larger cities back to the levels they were in the 1981 New Jersey Gubernatorial election.

[MATTROSE94]

I've been following elections for almost 30 years now and one thing I can say is people are vastly exaggerating the role of campaigns or politicians in losing or winning.

* Democrats have governed Virginia and New Jersey for the last term and enacted a lot of policy
* President is unpopular and general situation is unhappy for most
* A big chunk of voters Dems rely on for their majorities will vote for change easily and flip their votes

TMac's campaign looks inept because it threw a lot of things at the wall to see what would stick. It was beyond their control that nothing could stick in the face of people wanting to try something different and having a Republican who wasn't Trump or a nutcase on the ballot.

Dems are heading into the wilderness below the Presidential level, and it likely leads to major constitutional crises later this decade at the federal level but it's beyond our control. Let NJ and VA have a different party in charge, that's democracy.

Explain

Basically Donald Trump attempting to run for a third term in 2028 after his inevitable win in 2024.