Virginia Mega Thread: The Youngkin Administration (user search)
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  Virginia Mega Thread: The Youngkin Administration (search mode)
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Author Topic: Virginia Mega Thread: The Youngkin Administration  (Read 335462 times)
crazy jimmie
jamespol
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« on: November 10, 2020, 06:42:12 AM »
« edited: December 18, 2022, 03:50:14 PM by Gracile »

Trumpkin won by 2%
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crazy jimmie
jamespol
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« Reply #1 on: November 10, 2020, 06:50:14 AM »

How would you rate a Cox / McAuliffe matchup ?

Tilt McAulliffe.

Neither candidate would win by a wide margin. My hunch is that Cox would overperform a bit in the Richmond area and that Hampton Roads would revert back to more moderated voting patterns.

Nova was somewhat of a shocker. It voted Democratic up and down the ballot and Wexton did not significantly underperform Biden unlike Democrats in places like Orange which suggest the number of people in Loudoun/Fairfax willing to vote for a Republican candidate for Governor may be limited.

Lt. Governor I have no rating right now.

Attorney General:  Likely Democratic.
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crazy jimmie
jamespol
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« Reply #2 on: November 10, 2020, 07:33:40 AM »

I do feel like Republicans are over estimating their chances in these elections for VA -2021 but some people on Atlas will over estimate the Dem margins.
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crazy jimmie
jamespol
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« Reply #3 on: November 10, 2020, 10:28:11 AM »


He might run as either Republican or independent. He would stand as much chance as Kirk Cox statewide. Basically, decent but not favored.
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crazy jimmie
jamespol
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« Reply #4 on: November 10, 2020, 10:42:15 AM »


He might run as either Republican or independent. He would stand as much chance as Kirk Cox statewide. Basically, decent but not favored.

In this case the race would be close to Safe D.

haha yes. If Riggleman won the nomination as a Republican it would be a watched race. Decent chance but like I said not favored.

2021 Elections in Virginia will be a good test to Biden's appeal in suburbs. Look especially around Richmond and Hampton Roads. Now a narrow loss in Chesterfield County would not be a big deal for the Democrats but if Henrico County is competitive or if the GOP sweeps the Virginia Beach and Hampton Roads (except Norfolk, Hampton, Newport news and all those tiny cities) that would obviously be a bad omen.
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crazy jimmie
jamespol
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« Reply #5 on: November 10, 2020, 10:50:33 AM »

Now let's say it is a normal democrat versus a normal Republican and the GOP wins Chesterfield County by 10+ points, carries Chesapeake City and Virginia Beach easy and we see Loudoun showing GOP numbers nearly the mid-40s (it is the most flexible of all of Nova).. that would be cause for alarm for Democrats.
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crazy jimmie
jamespol
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« Reply #6 on: November 12, 2020, 08:48:51 AM »

terry mcauliffe has already ruled out  a Biden administration post. He is running for sure.
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crazy jimmie
jamespol
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« Reply #7 on: November 13, 2020, 03:49:40 AM »

The Republicans need to run a fiscally conservative socially moderate/liberal candidate to have any chance of winning but of course they won't because how could one survive a GOP primary (see Riggleman). 

If I Republican wins this election I will throw stuff, break all my windows, bang my head against the wall and claim voter fraud.

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crazy jimmie
jamespol
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« Reply #8 on: November 13, 2020, 03:53:21 AM »

terry mcauliffe has already ruled out  a Biden administration post. He is running for sure.

I was going to ask you if you heard rumors about him on the ground. If I was on his team I would no doubt be telling him to run. As a republican, I'm not thrilled because I know what it means for our chances in the race. But clearly he should run.

He is very strongly likely to run.

My impression of the candidates are:

McAuliffe: Very likely to win unless he just gets lazy.

Fairfax: He could well lose statewide and it would depend on who the GOP Nominates.

Jennifer Carrol Foy: Reasonably strong but has a chance of being overrated.

Jennifer McClellan: Wont be as large of a factor in the primary as you would think
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crazy jimmie
jamespol
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« Reply #9 on: November 14, 2020, 09:39:44 PM »
« Edited: April 05, 2022, 10:16:35 PM by jimmie »

Foy is not as week as you would think but I would prefer she is not the nominee
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crazy jimmie
jamespol
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« Reply #10 on: November 16, 2020, 09:24:26 AM »

I am about to lose my mind .. god has personally told me kirk cox is the next governor and amanda chase is the next lt governor
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crazy jimmie
jamespol
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« Reply #11 on: November 17, 2020, 12:06:55 AM »


How scared should democrats be of that?
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crazy jimmie
jamespol
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« Reply #12 on: November 26, 2020, 01:56:11 PM »

For those of you without NY Times access I will post part of the article here.

https://www.nytimes.com/2020/11/24/us/politics/virginia-democrats-governor.html

Quote
Mr. Biden’s victory was powered by suburban voters, especially women like Ms. White, who were motivated during the primary and the general election by what they perceived as the existential threat of a second term for the president. Without Mr. Trump on the ballot, Ms. White and other liberal suburban women are looking to see the Democratic Party put forward more candidates that look like them — and they are not interested in waiting much longer.


Fairfax County, which includes Ms. White’s hometown, Annandale, has in one generation transformed from a place that George W. Bush carried in the 2000 presidential election to one of the nation’s most reliable Democratic strongholds. Fairfax gave 70 percent of its vote to Mr. Biden, a larger percentage than the party’s traditional battleground state strongholds in Milwaukee County, Wis., or Wayne County, Mich., which includes Detroit.


I will still support the safe choice. Terry Mcauliffe
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crazy jimmie
jamespol
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« Reply #13 on: December 06, 2020, 01:55:32 AM »

https://www.wsls.com/news/local/2020/12/05/campbell-county-crowd-protests-gov-northams-social-distancing-order/

what are they doing? For being a Democratic Governor and a physician, Northam has been quite lax on covid restrictions. Thank goodness.

But with the way they GOP is going to nominate their ticket this year.. we may get some crazy nominee like Kurt Santini for Governor.. who attended that rally.
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crazy jimmie
jamespol
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« Reply #14 on: December 06, 2020, 02:19:25 AM »


This race was always Safe D (with any Democrat/Republican).

I would be worried if Lee Carter is chosen as the Democratic nominee...
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crazy jimmie
jamespol
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« Reply #15 on: December 09, 2020, 02:13:54 PM »

Carter's departure from HD-50 ironically makes me feel better about the seat. I wish he would stay in the house of delegates though as we need his voice. (I hate anyone who is wealthy).

But yea, HD-50 is relatively competitive for Northern Virginia so if the climate got good for the GOP it could flip especially with a Democrat like Carter.

I have not made a decision in the primary yet between Jennifer Carrol Foy or Terry Mcauliffe.
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crazy jimmie
jamespol
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« Reply #16 on: December 09, 2020, 03:22:26 PM »
« Edited: April 05, 2022, 10:17:43 PM by jimmie »

Carter's departure from HD-50 ironically makes me feel better about the seat. I wish he would stay in the house of delegates though as we need his voice. (I hate anyone who is wealthy).

But yea, HD-50 is relatively competitive for Northern Virginia so if the climate got good for the GOP it could flip especially with a Democrat like Carter.

I have not made a decision in the primary yet between Jennifer Carrol Foy or Terry Mcauliffe.
Hes running for reelection in HD-50 too so if he loses the VA gov dem primary he's still going to run for reelection. Also yall hate on Lee Carter away to much he's charismatic and funny af and has a very good story I don't think he'll win but he's got a better shot than you'd think


Its possibly there would be some blood letting in the most upscale parts of nova and in particular fairfaix.

But he would probably pull it out at the end and already has experience in running competitive campaigns. He was a prime target in 2019.

But I'm playing it safe.
 
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crazy jimmie
jamespol
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« Reply #17 on: December 09, 2020, 05:07:32 PM »

I am doing a lot of thinking whether I would support Jennifer Carrol Foy.

yes she is the electable progressive. But I fear I may have to vote for Terry McAuliffe. The anti fairfax and carter people need to stick together and I do not want to risk the Democrats losing it.
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crazy jimmie
jamespol
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« Reply #18 on: December 14, 2020, 09:02:39 AM »

I am doing a lot of thinking whether I would support Jennifer Carrol Foy.

yes she is the electable progressive. But I fear I may have to vote for Terry McAuliffe. The anti fairfax and carter people need to stick together and I do not want to risk the Democrats losing it.

This guy says "Fairfax and Carter" run everything:



TBF I agree about Farifax... he's really the only dem I see losing the general the guys a sexual predator.

Exactly.

This is ridiculous. We have a literal rapist still in office and going to events around the state and is running for governor and could even be elected governor due to how insane the Virginia GOP is and the partisanship of Nova.

And putting Fairfax on the top of the ticket risks the house of delegates as well.

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crazy jimmie
jamespol
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« Reply #19 on: December 14, 2020, 09:19:18 AM »



Democrats are favored either way but in good and bad news for Democrats Amanda Chase will be seeking the Republican nomination for Governor instead of running as an independent.
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crazy jimmie
jamespol
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« Reply #20 on: December 14, 2020, 05:38:58 PM »



Democrats are favored either way but in good and bad news for Democrats Amanda Chase will be seeking the Republican nomination for Governor instead of running as an independent.

Can she beat Kirk Cox?

its a convention so I would not be shocked.
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crazy jimmie
jamespol
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« Reply #21 on: December 14, 2020, 06:19:23 PM »



Democrats are favored either way but in good and bad news for Democrats Amanda Chase will be seeking the Republican nomination for Governor instead of running as an independent.

Can she beat Kirk Cox?
Tt's possible.  Ken Cuccinelli and E.W. Jackson were both nominated through conventions so I think it could very well happen that she is nominated but then again with things like her being kicked out of a county party maybe she won't.

And I still think even against Kirk Cox that JCF or McAufflie would be favored
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crazy jimmie
jamespol
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« Reply #22 on: December 15, 2020, 09:54:17 AM »

On blogs, comments, forums, etc I am seeing a lot of stupid safe R and safe D takes for Virginia Governor 2021.

Why is there is an assumption the state is as a Dem as California? Why is there also a counter assumption that the state will become heavily GOP without Trump in office?
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crazy jimmie
jamespol
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« Reply #23 on: December 15, 2020, 10:49:58 AM »

Yeah, no. McAuliffe saying he has more experience is neither racist nor a dog-whistle. It's just objectively true. Foy isn't running against the McAuliffe of 7 or 11 years ago. She's running against somebody who has since served 4 years in the Governor's Mansion. If you wanna argue he's had his time, then that's more than fine, but that's a wholly different (& frankly much better) argument than 'touting objective experience is now racist.'

JCF's statement makes me even more inclined to support McAuliffe. He is not the McAuliffe who barely won in 2013. He was a highly successful governor and imagine what he could do with a Democratic House of Delegates and State Senate.

Plus he poses very little risk.
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crazy jimmie
jamespol
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« Reply #24 on: December 15, 2020, 11:25:57 AM »

The fairly close house vote in Virginia is a bit concerning but its not like the Democratic Party ran a great national campaign either.

But still what is up with all these takes that VA will become a solid GOP state without Trump in office?

And no matter how polarized we are.. voting patterns will deviate from time to time.
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