Virginia Mega Thread: The Youngkin Administration

[slothdem]

It will be funny if this is a long mega thread and Terry mcauliffe ends up winning by 10 to 13 points..

A 10-point win by Terry is probably the most likely outcome. In a bad environment vs a solid candidate like Cox the win could be kind of close, but there's also a good chance the environment is solid for dems and he just obliterates Chase.

[slothdem]

Virginia is Safe D and I will say this until the end of time

Yes, but governor's elections are different, as KY, KS, LA, VT, MA, and neighboring MD can tell you.  

Ironically, the kind of coalition + conditions that allowed Hogan to pull off an upset in MD may not exist in VA. I’d also argue that VA's D base is more inflexible than that of MD and very much tends to turn out in off-year elections.

Likely D.

You are correct that the conditions that allowed for a Hogan victory in Maryland are not replicable in Virginia. There is no need for a check on a legislature with Democratic supermajorities, nor are there supermajorities to severely limit conservatives gubernatorial power. And there isn't five decades of Democratic rule to run against, nor are the taxes in Virginia high enough to revolt against, all of which were necessary ingredients for Hogan's upset of Brown.

But I'm curious as to what makes you think Virginia's D base is more inflexible than Maryland's. Both have a substantial number of DC-adjacent ultra-partisan dems, but Maryland's black population is 50% higher.

[slothdem]

The R candidate probably needs to win Chesterfield by 10 to take the state, given how little improvement they can make on Trump's numbers in the rural Western part of the state.

[slothdem]

https://richmond.com/news/state-and-regional/govt-and-politics/northam-endorses-ayala-for-lieutenant-governor/article_71f0d316-6e3f-56a0-a6f4-4545cc64c648.html

Governor Northam and state legislative leaders are endorsing Hala Ayala for LG. So the races is coming into focus more, with her as the establishment choice, Sam Rasoul as the more progressive choice, and other people having some regional appeal.

Last minute effort to avoid an all-male nearly all-white ticket.

[slothdem]

[tweet]
This story is being over blown in the media and will not have the same impact as actual closing of schools but this is not good optics for the Virginia Democratic Party either.

To me, the progressive position would be trying to find each students strengths rather than try to have everyone equal in Math and Science.

That woman's twitter is something else. Lot of "I'm not a Democrat, I'm not a Republican, I'm a PARENT." But a quick search in open secrets shows the lady in question sent $4,000 to Loeffler, Perdue, and WinRed a week after the the Presidential election. So I don't think we she's the median voter we need to be worried about here.

TMac makes this a Likely D race, and TMac vs Amanda Chase is a Safe D race.

[slothdem]

Virginia voted 52D-47R for the House of Representatives in 2020, and that was frankly with a bunch of not-very-competent Republican candidates running (Bob Good, Nick Freitas) throughout the state. The state Democratic party has had a bunch of scandals over the past two years and Northam's approvals are weak; moreover, Youngkin will probably be able to outspend McAuliffe.

As addressed above, you are putting a lot of stock into Morgan Griffith running unopposed (and also Wittman's thrashing of Rashid). But I also highlighted Ralph's approval ratings. I haven't seen anything from 2021, but the most recent approval poll I could find had Ralph at 56/39. He weathered the blackface scandal remarkably well, and if he was eligible he would win re-election without difficulty. Most people feel that he handled the pandemic well in terms of safety vs openness, and the liberal reforms instituted by the legislature these past two years are very popular. There's a reason why every dem candidate or Gov/LG/AG wanted his endorsement.

This race is not unwinnable for Youngkin, and it may very well be within 5 points. But close margins =/= uncertain outcomes, and Youngkin pretty much needs every possible thing to go right.

[slothdem]

https://www.npr.org/2021/05/10/995715076/virginia-gop-chooses-political-newcomer-youngkin-as-nominee-for-governor

This guy is wildly out of touch with the Virginia general electorate.  He's not diverse.  He does not have an appealing background.  He seems unlikable.  This race is Safe D.

Maybe up in Fake Virginia he is... but in the rest of the state, his policies are more in line with public & more helpful and attractive.

Clinton would have beaten Trump in Virginia even if no votes were counted in Arlington, Alexandria, and the "inside the beltway" portion of Fairfax. Biden would have defeated Trump in Virginia even if no votes were counted in Arlington, Alexandria, all of Fairfax, and Prince William. It looks like "Fake Virginia" is growing ever larger each election cycle. Soon there won't be any "Real Virginia" left east of the mountains.

[slothdem]

My preliminary prediction:

I think you can make Virginia Beach red on this map, and maybe Chesapeake too. My lowkey hot take is that James City is going to vote blue.

[slothdem]

Hillariously enough, the reason why the Byrd statue was removed is because some doofus GOP rep was like "how would you like it if we tried to cancel a Democrat" and the Democratic caucus was like yeah, okay, let's get rid of this racist's statue.

[slothdem]

My analysis on the Virginia Gubernatorial election.  I still think in the end McAuliffe will most likely prevail, but if I were him, I'd be very worried looking at the polling.  McAuliffe is the de facto incumbent.  I would expect him to be running away with it.  He isn't.  The polls show it close. McAuliffe is not the invincible pol people think.  Remember, he only narrowly edged out a very polarizing opponent in 2013, and Youngkin as not as controversial as Cucinelli.  And McAuliffe left office with mediocre approval ratings.  Above water, but below 50%.  And I believe there is the sense among some moderate voters in the suburbs that Northam and the Democrats in the General Assembly have overreached the last 2 years.  Since willing the majority, the Democrats have done things like abolishing the death penalty and legalized marijuana.  They are acting like Virginia is Massachusetts.

This was a fine take in May, but since that time Youngkin has done nothing to move the needle with the voters who he needs to win. The anti-CRT stuff is seen as embarrassing in Northern Virginia: the people who show up at those things are even more toxic to Fairfax/Loudoun voters than Trump. Youngkin has done nothing to differentiate himself from the national or state GOP, which is a pre-requisite for a Republican winning in Virginia. I'm not sure why this race has been such a polling desert, but all polls have shown McAuliffe ahead, and almost all of these have been by GOP firms.

Because there is no economic case to make against McAuliffe, the GOP has had to run on the same social and cultural issues that caused Northern Virginia (and to  slightly lesser extent RVA) sprint left in the first place. The margin may end up being close or it might not - I think high single digits is more likely than a "very close" race - but close margins should not be mistaken for uncertain outcomes. In a political environment like we have today, and with the campaign he's ran, Youngkin just doesn't have the voters to beat any Democrat, let alone a plus-candidate like McAuliffe.

[slothdem]

Dem polls have McAuliffe up by mid-single digits. They aren't being released because they are concerned about complacency, and would rather send the message that the race is close. What's happened in California has vindicated that strategy, I think.

A few pages ago, MT made a comment about how the 2013 map wasn't necessarily suggestive of "weak dem turnout." That year, Mac got 48k votes in Arlington. In 2017, Ralph got 68k votes in Arlington. If Mac matches or improves on Ralph's raw vote totals in the blue sections of the state (which should be easy to do given the fast population growth) then there isn't really a path for Youngkin.

[slothdem]

Question:

In 2020, did gop congressional candidates significantly outrun Trump in VA?

Biden beat T by 10+ in VA

What was the house margin in va?

Significantly.

51.99% D to 47.23% R

Bear in mind that Griffith in VA-09 was unopposed, while the GOP ran candidates in every district, skewing numbers slightly.

If you adjust for that, what does the margin look like?

It makes so much more sense to compare the 2021 gov result to the 2020 house results

If you adjust for Griffith running unopposed, the margin is similar to Biden/Trump, but slightly better for the GOP. The improvement is solely the result of Biden keeping VA-01 close (4 point loss) while Wittman crushed his opponent (a twitter progressive with a muslim name). All races besides 01/09 had extremely close margins to the presidential.

[slothdem]

As far as the super rich places, Youngkin will win both Great Falls and Oakton, while still losing McLean handedly. He'll obviously win the geographically large precincts on the PWC border north of Manassas. But these places account for only a relative small percentage of Fairfax's population. Reston, Alexandria (ffx county portion), Tyson's, the Springfield's, and the Burke's are all unmovable these days: somewhat to very dense, extremely diverse and very well-educated. Youngkin MIGHT improve slightly on the 2016 numbers here, but this really isn't a place that can move much.

[slothdem]

This race just feels different than 2017.

I am smelling a Mcauliffe +2-4 result.

You must seriously be misremembering 2017. There was FAR more bedwetting, concern-trolling, and republican wishcasting in that race. The polls were at least as close. And that race had arguably more inane culture war trash with the MS-13 and confederate statues, although the CRT thing is probably even stupider.

[slothdem]

This race just feels different than 2017.

I am smelling a Mcauliffe +2-4 result.

You must seriously be misremembering 2017. There was FAR more bedwetting, concern-trolling, and republican wishcasting in that race. The polls were at least as close. And that race had arguably more inane culture war trash with the MS-13 and confederate statues, although the CRT thing is probably even stupider.

I was referring to the actual result, not the pre election narratives of 2017.

Well, that we won't know until they start counting the votes.

[slothdem]

Biberaj is much more of a hardcore progressive than the other two incumbents from what I can tell, and has effectively decriminalized a wide range of offenses by refusing to bring charges against them, including hit-and-run, trespassing, and reckless driving under 90mph, among others.

I'm a criminal defense attorney in Northern Virginia and this is not true at all. It's almost precisely backwards. Parisa has transformed Arlington CA's Office from being radically punitive to the most progressive in the state. They offer significant social services in lieu of incarceration for all but serious offenses. This is in line with her constituents - I have found Arlington juries only give jail time for violent crimes now - property offenses are typically punished only by fines. Parisa's office is also well-ran and staffed by very good lawyers. I would be willing to accept a CA job there, whereas I do not think I could ethically prosecute in any other jurisdiction, except maybe Fairfax.

Descano's tenure has been a mixed-bag at best and a disaster at worse. His office is poorly run and regularly has ACA's in roles outside their experience. Their is also an enormous amount of turnover. However, he has been successful in reforming the jurisdiction, and defendants are treated much more fairly than they were under Morrow. Still, I could not blame someone for voting Nuttal, because of how messy Steve's tenure has been.

Biberaj on the other hand..... I won't pretend to know what her inner feelings are, but Loudoun is nearly as difficult a place for a criminal defendant as it was under the hardcore conservative Plowman. Not only has her office not decriminalized minor offenses, they regularly fail to get involved in minor offenses, leaving Defendants at the mercy of the fairly conservative judges. Her office has all of the staffing and competency issues of Fairfax, with someone even more scandals, and very little reform to show for it. She deserves to lose re-election.

Predictions: Parisa by 15-20, Nuttal by 5-10, Lancaster by 10-15.

[slothdem]

Notably, the Washington Post endorsed Dehghani-Tafti, but also endorsed both Nuttall and Descano.

Did you mean Nutall and Lancaster? Or did they pull a "we endorse Warren and Klobuchar" type thing?

They endorsed Nuttal and Lancaster.

[slothdem]

Biberaj is much more of a hardcore progressive than the other two incumbents from what I can tell, and has effectively decriminalized a wide range of offenses by refusing to bring charges against them, including hit-and-run, trespassing, and reckless driving under 90mph, among others.

I'm a criminal defense attorney in Northern Virginia and this is not true at all. It's almost precisely backwards. Parisa has transformed Arlington CA's Office from being radically punitive to the most progressive in the state. They offer significant social services in lieu of incarceration for all but serious offenses. This is in line with her constituents - I have found Arlington juries only give jail time for violent crimes now - property offenses are typically punished only by fines. Parisa's office is also well-ran and staffed by very good lawyers. I would be willing to accept a CA job there, whereas I do not think I could ethically prosecute in any other jurisdiction, except maybe Fairfax.

Descano's tenure has been a mixed-bag at best and a disaster at worse. His office is poorly run and regularly has ACA's in roles outside their experience. Their is also an enormous amount of turnover. However, he has been successful in reforming the jurisdiction, and defendants are treated much more fairly than they were under Morrow. Still, I could not blame someone for voting Nuttal, because of how messy Steve's tenure has been.

Biberaj on the other hand..... I won't pretend to know what her inner feelings are, but Loudoun is nearly as difficult a place for a criminal defendant as it was under the hardcore conservative Plowman. Not only has her office not decriminalized minor offenses, they regularly fail to get involved in minor offenses, leaving Defendants at the mercy of the fairly conservative judges. Her office has all of the staffing and competency issues of Fairfax, with someone even more scandals, and very little reform to show for it. She deserves to lose re-election.

Predictions: Parisa by 15-20, Nuttal by 5-10, Lancaster by 10-15.

Gotcha on the Biberaj thing. Looks like the thing I saw covered it poorly, it implied that she was decriminalizing all that when it looks like actually because of understaffing (since absolutely nobody wants to work for her, and turnover is insane) they are simply kicking those to the courts to handle themselves. Not sure how that works for things that aren't just a fine (the one that comes to mind is that reckless driving carries jail time here), since I don't see how you can have a misdemeanor trial without a prosecutor, but I'm not a lawyer, I'm sure they have some way.

I suppose I was mixing up her extreme fight-pickingness and the PD and county board and everyone else hating her with her being particularly ideologically radical. Clearly I was wrong on that one, I'll fix that description there.

You would think this, and yet.... what happens is that the officer is called to testify by the Judge, the officer testifies as to what happened, the Defense attorney questions the officer, and then makes argument. Virtually 100% of the time, this results in conviction of DIP or RD, leaving the Defendant with a permanent criminal record that can never be expunged (don't even get me started on Virginia's expungement laws). Well, it would but for the fact that virtually all of these are appealed. So by failing to staff a single general district court hearing, they guarantee their office will need to handle at least two circuit court hearings. It is the definition of dysfunction.

[slothdem]

Do you also live in Arlington County?

I am about to drop off my ballot tomorrow morning before work.  I only just filled it out:
--------------------------------------------------

40th State Senate District: Sen. Barbara Favola (D)

Commonwealth Attorney: Josh Katcher

Sheriff: Jose Quiroz

Arlington County Board -given it is a top-three ranked choice ballot:

1. Maureen Coffee
2. JD Spain
3. Tony Weaver

I live in Washington and reverse commute out to the suburbs. I've been extremely resistant to leaving DC, but will likely do so in the coming years to to buy a house.

My I ask why you're voting for Katcher? Seems strange to go for the liberal county board members and Josh, who will end the reforms established by Parisa.

[slothdem]

If McAuliffe had won we'd be looking at a Minnesota 2.0 legislative session next year after getting rid of all that deadweight tonight. Now we have to wait until 2026 for any real progressive legislative wins. Of course this is all predicated on Dems doing decent this year and flipping back the Gov in '25.

Well, I don't think anyone was expecting the state senate to shift that far to the left that quickly.  Since the strongest Republicans won their primaries in the 3 lean R seats and both of the rural-ish Dem incumbents have retired, they fundamentally need to win a Youngkin +1 outer Loudoun based seat to hold the chamber.  There's also a McAuliffe +4 district in western Prince William that wasn't a clearly Dem leaning seat until the Trump era and swung back pretty hard to the right in the 2022 congressional vote.  Between this and all the progressive prosecutors being renominated, is a message this left-leaning going to sell in either of these seats?  IDK.  This could reasonably be the thus far and no further moment in outer NOVA in the GE.

It's true that Loudoun and PWC swung right in 2022, but even with that swing these districts would both be won by Democratic candidates. 2021 was a red tidal wave, primarily driven by presidential-level republican turnout caused by covid fatigue. You're talking about Rs flipping districts that Biden won by 17 points. That hasn't really happened anywhere in the country. I also think that Russet is a very high-quality candidate. Like Mikie Sherrill in North Jersey, it's like she was grown in a lab to win her district.