Virginia Mega Thread: The Youngkin Administration

[SnowLabrador]

I know my folk.

McAulife will win by 51-47 against Trumpkin.

If so, the GOP will get a lot more momentum. Hopefully it's at least as much as Northam's 2017 margin.

[SnowLabrador]

As a side note, we are getting bombarded in NOVA with Trumpkin ads.  It's not even August.  It's insane how much this self-absorbed d-bag is spending on this failed effort.  I think he's probably going to make it closer than we initially expected (maybe even within 5 points) due to the sheer amount of resources he's pumping into this.  But it's not going to be enough, I don't think.  The math just doesn't work for the GOP anymore.

The Democrats need to start spending. Even if Youngkin isn't going to win, if the race is closer than it was in 2017, the GOP will gain a lot more momentum.

[SnowLabrador]

Hot take: This is a sleeper race, and Youngkin has about a 30% chance of winning. We've barely goten any polling, and what we do have are Youngkin internals. McAuliffe hasn't released any internals, which is a sign of weakness.

[SnowLabrador]

Hot take: This is a sleeper race, and Youngkin has about a 30% chance of winning. We've barely goten any polling, and what we do have are Youngkin internals. McAuliffe hasn't released any internals, which is a sign of weakness.

Honest question: Why are you how you are?

I'm simply pointing out that the fact that McAuliffe hasn't released any internals speaks volumes as to the state of this race.

[SnowLabrador]

Hot take: This is a sleeper race, and Youngkin has about a 30% chance of winning. We've barely goten any polling, and what we do have are Youngkin internals. McAuliffe hasn't released any internals, which is a sign of weakness.

Honest question: Why are you how you are?

I'm simply pointing out that the fact that McAuliffe hasn't released any internals speaks volumes as to the state of this race.

Dude are you seriously concerned that Youngkin could win?  Trust me, I am not one to make bold predictions and there is 0.00000000% chance Youngkin wins.  There is a 1% chance Youngkin loses by less than 5.  There is a 30% chance he loses by less than 8.  There is a 50% chance he loses by less than 10.

Off-year elections can have unpredictable turnout dynamics.

[SnowLabrador]

There were 14,000 in person votes Friday/Sat

https://www.vpap.org/elections/early-voting/

Is that a lot?

[SnowLabrador]

apparently terry mcaulife had some gaffe tonight where he said he doesn't want parents being involved in decisions schools make or something.

This is T-Mac's "hell yes" moment, but likely won't be as consequential.

This will affect McAuliffe as much as Soybeangate affected Ernst last year.

I hope you're right, but Iowa's a lot more Republican than Virginia is Democratic, and the polarization is asymmetric.

[SnowLabrador]

Useful chart
https://mobile.twitter.com/RealAmerican_2/status/1448046285215371268

Not really.  You cannot compare a gov. election early and mail turnout with Presidential election early and mail turnout (during the height of a pandemic).  It's obviously apples to oranges.

Early voting is still pitiful. I wouldn't be too surprised if Youngkin wins at this point.

[SnowLabrador]

Morning Consult has Biden approval at 48/49 for Sept. 14-Oct. 13, 2021.

https://morningconsult.com/2021/10/18/biden-approval-rating-virginia-gubernatorial-race/

McAuliffe +2 remains my prediction.

[SnowLabrador]

https://twitter.com/BradMossEsq/status/1450189108761010176

The sleeping giant is waking up.

That's a sign of voter suppression. Nobody should have to wait that long to vote.

[SnowLabrador]

You guys are acting like it's still 2010.  A low turnout election actually BENEFITS democrats now that they are the party of educated/wealthy suburbs. 

That's not proven yet. I'll believe it when I see it.

[SnowLabrador]

So I just got off from phonebanking for McAuliffe, and most of the people I contacted were Youngkin supporters. Probably doesn't mean much in terms of who's going to win, but it does worry me. One of them even cussed me out.

[SnowLabrador]

So I just got off from phonebanking for McAuliffe, and most of the people I contacted were Youngkin supporters. Probably doesn't mean much in terms of who's going to win, but it does worry me. One of them even cussed me out.

That doesn't indicate much. How many people did you talk too?

Like five or six. Most of them didn't pick up.

[SnowLabrador]

So I just got off from phonebanking for McAuliffe, and most of the people I contacted were Youngkin supporters. Probably doesn't mean much in terms of who's going to win, but it does worry me. One of them even cussed me out.

That doesn't indicate much. How many people did you talk too?

Like five or six. Most of them didn't pick up.

Is the McAullife campaign just having you call random numbers?   They should be having you call those who were targeted in 2020 and said they were voting for Biden.

I would imagine it's the latter, unless they're really stupid. Either way, it's rather sobering. I really think this race is a tossup.

[SnowLabrador]

So I just got off from phonebanking for McAuliffe, and most of the people I contacted were Youngkin supporters. Probably doesn't mean much in terms of who's going to win, but it does worry me. One of them even cussed me out.

That doesn't indicate much. How many people did you talk too?

Like five or six. Most of them didn't pick up.

Is the McAullife campaign just having you call random numbers?   They should be having you call those who were targeted in 2020 and said they were voting for Biden.

I would imagine it's the latter, unless they're really stupid. Either way, it's rather sobering. I really think this race is a tossup.

Hard to imagine that someone who voted for Biden would cuss you out for calling from the McAuliffe campaign.

Well, there are plenty of people who voted for Obama who are now pure Q fanatics.

[SnowLabrador]

The only way Youngkin wins is if turnout is low enough among Democrats. Fortunately for him, that might well happen.

[SnowLabrador]

So there won't be a Virginia needle next week. That sucks.

[SnowLabrador]

It's a tossup.

[SnowLabrador]

I think Youngkin is going to win at this point. I want to be wrong but I’m calling it now so I’m not as disappointed.

[SnowLabrador]

Youngkin +3 sounds about right, but it could even be Youngkin +5. Dems are really asleep at the wheel here.

[SnowLabrador]

2022 is going to be a worse year for Democrats than 2014.

[SnowLabrador]

https://twitter.com/ProjectVirginia/status/1455331863690612752?s=20

I think Youngkin will win, but I'm hesitant to take this source seriously.

[SnowLabrador]

High election day turnout is bad for McAuliffe.

[SnowLabrador]

Republican stronghold at 31% turnout at 10 AM.

https://twitter.com/samshirazim/status/1455564150365696003

They had ~48% turnout in 2017.

That can't be good.

[SnowLabrador]

Wow, Youngkin might actually win by 5 or more.