PA-SN 2022 megathread: Shrek vs. The Wizard of Oz

[Pheurton Skeurto]

He was the most high profile candidate in the race, so the clown car gets even clownier. I don't think Dr. Oz stands any real chance of winning, so it's going to be either Bartos or Sands. I think Sands could be formidable in the general just by virtue of being a woman who worked in the Trump administration. But the GOP doesn't have any really clear cut options here.

[Roll Roons]

Despite the Trump endorsement, I never thought Parnell was anywhere close to a lock in this primary. Wonder if Costello or Reschenthaler get in now.

[Gracile]

Despite the Trump endorsement, I never thought Parnell was anywhere close to a lock in this primary. Wonder if Costello or Reschenthaler get in now.

Costello would never get through a primary.

[Biden 2024]

Kathy Barnette gonna surge.

[Ferguson97]

Does Dr. Oz have a serious chance?

[Born to Slay. Forced to Work.]

Watch Trump bully him into staying in the race

[Pollster]

Trump off to a great start with his endorsements for this Senate cycle.

[lfromnj]

Despite the Trump endorsement, I never thought Parnell was anywhere close to a lock in this primary. Wonder if Costello or Reschenthaler get in now.

Costello would never get through a primary.

Nah Costello can get through, he believes the 1960 election was stolen

[THG]

I unironically think that he’d be the strongest GOP candidate.

Think of the margins he’d get in the Philadelphia Collar suburbs, especially against the DSA Shrek lookalike who’s the Democratic front runner. And Youngkin proved that the “MAGA Base doesn’t turn out for *insert candidate*” theory is a load of drivel.

[Oppo]

I unironically think that he’d be the strongest GOP candidate.

Think of the margins he’d get in the Philadelphia Collar suburbs, especially against the DSA Shrek lookalike who’s the Democratic front runner. And Youngkin proved that the “MAGA Base doesn’t turn out for *insert candidate*” theory is a load of drivel.

DSA straight up didn’t endorse Fetterman in 2018 because of his stance on fracking

[Pink Panther]

And that's a wrap for the political career of Sean Parnell, folks.

[THG]

I unironically think that he’d be the strongest GOP candidate.

Think of the margins he’d get in the Philadelphia Collar suburbs, especially against the DSA Shrek lookalike who’s the Democratic front runner. And Youngkin proved that the “MAGA Base doesn’t turn out for *insert candidate*” theory is a load of drivel.

DSA straight up didn’t endorse Fetterman in 2018 because of his stance on fracking

Ok and?

He’s still a DSA adjacent candidate who looks like an uglier and more terrifying version of Shrek, and he’s running in a red wave year against a man who is best suited to get the vote of suburban white women in the Philadelphia collar suburbs.

[SnowLabrador]

And that's a wrap for the political career of Sean Parnell, folks.

And the chances of Democrats winning this seat.

[TiltsAreUnderrated]

And that's a wrap for the political career of Sean Parnell, folks.

And the chances of Democrats winning this seat.

I’m still not convinced he would fare worse than Generic R.

[2016]

Sean Parnell dropping out is the best thing that could have happened to Senate Republicans. I expect Guy Reschenthaler taking a 2nd Look at this Race now.

[wbrocks67]

Ugh, the GOP field is even more of a clown car now, especially with Dr Oz involved.

[Vespucci]

Tossup--->Tilt R. (Unless they actually nominate Dr. Oz. That might send it all the way to Lean/Likely D.)

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Tossup--->Tilt R. (Unless they actually nominate Dr. Oz. That might send it all the way to Lean/Likely D.)

The only poll we had on this race was Fetterman plus nine

[Utah Neolib]

Guess I was right

[Ferguson97]

I feel like he's the kind of candidate who can only win by 10 points or lose by 10 points, nothing in-between.

[Calthrina950]

Assuming that he gets through the primary, I could definitely see Dr. Oz winning a general election. He's very widely known, and among the Republican base at least, his status as a political outsider would be of benefit to him.

[Wormless Gourd]

Hard not to see how this isn't a boon to Republicans and depending on how close the Senate race ends up being, it could be the "Amanda Chase doesn't get the VA-GOV nom" moment.

[Shaula🏳️‍⚧️]

Don't get your hopes up for an "electable moderate". Trump will endorse someone else, whether it be Scott Perry entering the race or some other Trump sychophant.

[Senator Spark]

https://twitter.com/politicoalex/status/1462877756845342725

Shocker.

[TiltsAreUnderrated]

Hard not to see how this isn't a boon to Republicans and depending on how close the Senate race ends up being, it could be the "Amanda Chase doesn't get the VA-GOV nom" moment.

Parnell didn't do badly against former electoral titan Conor Lamb in 2020 and the custody battle could plausibly have had minimal political impact by election day. Marital scandals aren't (electorally) what they used to be.

PA Republicans could get a better candidate (Reschentaler, perhaps?), but they could also do worse (the likes of Mastriano) assuming firmer evidence of abuse by Parnell didn't emerge. In my view, this is not an Amanda Chase Moment.