PA-SN 2022 megathread: Shrek vs. The Wizard of Oz

[2016]

The Race starts as TOSS UP since it's an Open Seat.

Yes, Mr. Fitzpatrick, it's your turn now!

[2016]

Fitzpatrick has an F from the NRA. It's not going to be him.

Depends on what year we're going to have IMO. If we have an Anti-Establishment Year in the GOP during 2022 then yes I agree with you it's probably not going to be him.

However if the GOP returns to the Establishment like they did in 2014 when they captured the Senate Majority he will be the Nominee I think. Remember in 2014: McConnell beat Bevin in the Primary, the Establishment pushed out far-right extremists like Ken Buck in CO so that Gardner could win, they threw everything behind Tillis in the NC Primary. That paid dividends in the General Election.

[2016]

Fitzpatrick has an F from the NRA. It's not going to be him.

Depends on what year we're going to have IMO. If we have an Anti-Establishment Year in the GOP during 2022 then yes I agree with you it's probably not going to be him.

However if the GOP returns to the Establishment like they did in 2014 when they captured the Senate Majority he will be the Nominee I think. Remember in 2014: McConnell beat Bevin in the Primary, the Establishment pushed out far-right extremists like Ken Buck in CO so that Gardner could win, they threw everything behind Tillis in the NC Primary. That paid dividends in the General Election.

The GOP isn't going back to 2014, that is long past

How do you know that? Do you have a Crystal Ball or something? It's more likely than not that 2022 will be the year of the Establishment in BOTH PARTIES given that Trump is gone and AOC & her cohorts hurt Democrats a lot this year by failing to expand their House Majority.

[2016]

Fitzpatrick has an F from the NRA. It's not going to be him.

Depends on what year we're going to have IMO. If we have an Anti-Establishment Year in the GOP during 2022 then yes I agree with you it's probably not going to be him.

However if the GOP returns to the Establishment like they did in 2014 when they captured the Senate Majority he will be the Nominee I think. Remember in 2014: McConnell beat Bevin in the Primary, the Establishment pushed out far-right extremists like Ken Buck in CO so that Gardner could win, they threw everything behind Tillis in the NC Primary. That paid dividends in the General Election.

The GOP isn't going back to 2014, that is long past

How do you know that? Do you have a Crystal Ball or something? It's more likely than not that 2022 will be the year of the Establishment in BOTH PARTIES given that Trump is gone and AOC & her cohorts hurt Democrats a lot this year by failing to expand their House Majority.

If you think the GOP is going back to the Jeb!/Mitt/Paul Ryan years, I think you're very wrong.

I am not saying that BUT McConnell will be making sure he gets the most electable Candidates running for Senate in 2022 especially with Rick Scott now being the new Chairman of the NRSC.

Remember: McConnell's Majority PAC was dumping a lot of $$$$ to make sure Kobach was defeated in the KS-SEN GOP Primary this year. This will happen all over the Country in 2022 methinks!

PA GOP has a very thin bench. Who's gonna challenge Fitzpatrick if he runs? Tell me!

[2016]

Fitzpatrick has an F from the NRA. It's not going to be him.

Depends on what year we're going to have IMO. If we have an Anti-Establishment Year in the GOP during 2022 then yes I agree with you it's probably not going to be him.

However if the GOP returns to the Establishment like they did in 2014 when they captured the Senate Majority he will be the Nominee I think. Remember in 2014: McConnell beat Bevin in the Primary, the Establishment pushed out far-right extremists like Ken Buck in CO so that Gardner could win, they threw everything behind Tillis in the NC Primary. That paid dividends in the General Election.

The GOP isn't going back to 2014, that is long past

How do you know that? Do you have a Crystal Ball or something? It's more likely than not that 2022 will be the year of the Establishment in BOTH PARTIES given that Trump is gone and AOC & her cohorts hurt Democrats a lot this year by failing to expand their House Majority.

If you think the GOP is going back to the Jeb!/Mitt/Paul Ryan years, I think you're very wrong.

I am not saying that BUT McConnell will be making sure he gets the most electable Candidates running for Senate in 2022 especially with Rick Scott now being the new Chairman of the NRSC.

Remember: McConnell's Majority PAC was dumping a lot of $$$$ to make sure Kobach was defeated in the KS-SEN GOP Primary this year. This will happen all over the Country in 2022 methinks!

PA GOP has a very thin bench. Who's gonna challenge Fitzpatrick if he runs? Tell me!

I'm not saying that the PA GOP is going to nominate a QAnon acolyte. They very well might, but it's unlikely. But Fitzpatrick is much to the left of a Roger Marshall on key wedge issues for the GOP base. Fitzpatrick is pro gun control, pro-DACA, and at least more anti-Trump than the average Republican.

These are not positions that will be tenable in a Republican primary, especially in a year where Republican enthusiasm is probable to be higher than average.

I don't know who the GOP will nominate, but I doubt Fitzpatrick even runs.

Why? Fitzpatrick must be tired having to hang on for dear life every two years to keep his House Seat. He even might be redistricted out of it. He's the only one who has a reasonable chance at least saving the Seat and force D's to spent money in it.

[2016]

I'm not sure McConnell would want to recruit Fitzpatrick given his stance on the ACA.

Who cares? Once the SCOTUS rules on it, it will be in the rear-view mirror! ACA won't be an issue in 2022 at all.

[2016]

Sean Parnell dropping out is the best thing that could have happened to Senate Republicans. I expect Guy Reschenthaler taking a 2nd Look at this Race now.

[2016]

Democrats need Pennsylvania Senate Seat to have any chance of holding the Senate, Republicans don't.

They most likely lose AZ & GA (Democrats)!

[2016]

Democrats need Pennsylvania Senate Seat to have any chance of holding the Senate, Republicans don't.

Why do you believe this? Which Democratic-held seats are going to be far harder for them to win than Pennsylvania?

OH, NC, WI, MO are waaay harder to win especially in a Midterm with an Incumbent Democratic President. PA is the Democrats best shot for a Flip.

Republicans do not need a WAVE to retake Congress ala 2010 & 2014. If they win the Generic Ballot just by a couple of Points they retake Congress.

[2016]

Democrats need Pennsylvania Senate Seat to have any chance of holding the Senate, Republicans don't.

Why do you believe this? Which Democratic-held seats are going to be far harder for them to win than Pennsylvania?

OH, NC, WI, MO are waaay harder to win especially in a Midterm with an Incumbent Democratic President. PA is the Democrats best shot for a Flip.

Republicans do not need a WAVE to retake Congress ala 2010 & 2014. If they win the Generic Ballot just by a couple of Points they retake Congress.

I agree that Republicans do not need a wave, but Democrats don't actually need to flip any seats to hold the Senate. They could quite plausibly just hold everything they have without winning PA and keep control.

I would also dispute that NC and WI can't go (non-Atlas) blue before PA does. Either scenario is quite unlikely, but there's at least a >10% chance PA ends up more Republican than the result in one of these states.

Trump will have some big Defeats in the Primaries by Candidates he endorsed. I actually think Pat McCrory will beat Ted Budd in NC-SEN and if that happens NC is gone for Dems as a possible Pick Up.