PA-SN 2022 megathread: Shrek vs. The Wizard of Oz

[SnowLabrador]

Lean R. Biden only won here by about 1%; I think Fitzpatrick would be the GOP's strongest candidate, and they needn't worry about sacrificing a House seat.

[SnowLabrador]

I'm not sure McConnell would want to recruit Fitzpatrick given his stance on the ACA.

Who cares? Once the SCOTUS rules on it, it will be in the rear-view mirror! ACA won't be an issue in 2022 at all.

SCOTUS isn't striking down ACA

However they rule is a boon to the GOP, gets the issue out of politics and peoples minds thankfully. Same thing happened with gay marriage, the SCOTUS saved the GOP on the issue.

If they do strike down ACA...that’s not good at all for the GOP

Well, COVID was supposed to be horrible for the GOP, and yet it wasn't.

[SnowLabrador]

Parnell might be a strong candidate. He came within a few points of Lamb.

[SnowLabrador]

From what I understand, Fetterman's one of the strongest possible candidates, if not the strongest, for the Democrats. Hopefully he doesn't face Fitzpatrick.

[SnowLabrador]

https://twitter.com/JohnFetterman/status/1348659683716984833

Not bad, but he should spend it on a ground game rather than ads. The same goes for Democratic Senate candidates and incumbents in other states, too.

[SnowLabrador]

I hope Lamb doesn't run. We can't afford to lose his seat.

[SnowLabrador]

I support Kenyatta wholeheartedly. Fetterman sucks.

[SnowLabrador]

If someone's not going to vote for Kenyatta in the general election because he's gay, they're not going to vote for any Democrat.

[SnowLabrador]

My prediction is that it'll be Fitzpatrick vs. Fetterman, with polls showing a slight Fetterman advantage. Fitzpatrick will then win by 5 points.

[SnowLabrador]

Fetterman will lose the general election.

[SnowLabrador]

No polls will change my prediction: Fetterman will win the primary, hold a significant lead in polling, and then lose to the Republican by 2-3 points.

[SnowLabrador]

I prefer Kenyatta but I think Fetterman probably wins the primary.

Kenyatta will need some major endorsements and a ton of $$$ to even have a chance, agreed.

His fundraising is going really poorly - I think he sort of screwed himself with the "no PAC money" thing - think that only works for folks in uncompetitive races (e.g., E. Warren) or when opponents have also agreed to it.

Eh, if 2020 taught me anything, it's that fundraising means next to nothing.

[SnowLabrador]

I hope Lamb doesn't run. We have to hold down his seat.

[SnowLabrador]

Parnell almost beat Lamb, he's got a good chance in the general election.

[SnowLabrador]

Still supporting Fetterman

Fetterman will lose to Parnell.

[SnowLabrador]

I don't want to nominate Lamb. We don't need another Sinema.

[SnowLabrador]

Lamb will announce next Friday.

Ugh, can't he stay and hold down his seat? He's also probably weaker than Fetterman.

[SnowLabrador]

In honor of today's news, may I present this:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=FCiW-R5bY2k

One of the most... unique political ads I've ever seen.

Oh my God, I still remember that! So laughably bad.

[SnowLabrador]

Fetterman will win the primary, appear to be ahead in polling, but lose to Parnell by 3-5 points.

[SnowLabrador]

It's funny how many people think Vigilante Shrek has this is in the bag. LOL.

If "Vigilante Shrek" is Fetterman, I'm not one of them. Pennsylvania being 3 points to the right of the nation + a slightly R-leaning national environment = Parnell winning by up to 5 points.

[SnowLabrador]

https://twitter.com/JonathanTamari/status/1435404867800010758

This doesn't matter, electorally speaking. Parnell will still win the primary and general election.

[SnowLabrador]

How many times do I have to say that this doesn't matter electorally? Strong Lean R, Parnell wins by 3-5 points.

[SnowLabrador]

I really hope that people here don't dismiss this as "Who Cares?" and "Nothingburger". There are a lot of things that can be overlooked, but domestic abuse is not one of them.

I think it's absolutely disqualifying, but I doubt enough Pennsylvania voters feel the same way.

[SnowLabrador]

Yeah if this gains traction there is no way he wins the primary let alone the general

They said the same about Trump. In a red wave year, Parnell can absolutely beat Fetterman, probably by 3-5 points.

[SnowLabrador]

Given Pennsylvania Democrat's (relative) strength this year given the national environment, this race is probably going to be one of the most expensive and marquee races next year.

What was the result in that state Supreme Court race? Just looking for anything to hold onto that maybe the swing won't be uniform in 2022.