PA-SN 2022 megathread: Shrek vs. The Wizard of Oz

[Calthrina950]

I saw a thumbnail image of Fetterman on YouTube earlier today, and his appearance fits the stereotype of a tough, no nonsense, blue-collar, WWC miner, construction worker, contractor, or factory worker. I don't know that much about his background. Is this why many seem to have such confidence in his capabilities as a candidate for federal or statewide office?

[Calthrina950]

I saw a thumbnail image of Fetterman on YouTube earlier today, and his appearance fits the stereotype of a tough, no nonsense, blue-collar, WWC miner, construction worker, contractor, or factory worker. I don't know that much about his background. Is this why many seem to have such confidence in his capabilities as a candidate for federal or statewide office?

He's got a master of public policy from Harvard and comes from a rich family.

I see, and this doesn't surprise me at all. Many politicians who portray themselves as "WWC populists" actually are not, with Trump himself being the most notorious example of this.

[Calthrina950]

I saw a thumbnail image of Fetterman on YouTube earlier today, and his appearance fits the stereotype of a tough, no nonsense, blue-collar, WWC miner, construction worker, contractor, or factory worker. I don't know that much about his background. Is this why many seem to have such confidence in his capabilities as a candidate for federal or statewide office?

He's got a master of public policy from Harvard and comes from a rich family.

I see, and this doesn't surprise me at all. Many politicians who portray themselves as "WWC populists" actually are not, with Trump himself being the most notorious example of this.

Well yeah duh, it's not like upward mobility is easy in this country. And it takes a lot of capital, including cultural capital to run for higher office

You always seem to get unnecessarily worked up by whatever I post, and I don't understand it. I still remember the response you gave to me several months ago when I was discussing how progressives and moderates fared in last year's House elections. But moving on from that, as I made clear above, I didn't know much about Fetterman's background, and I'm not trying to say that he would be a "terrible" candidate for Pennsylvania. I'm merely trying to understand why so many on this forum, and elsewhere, seem to have such an interest in his candidacy.

[Calthrina950]

I don't live in PA but PASS. Rooting for Conor Lamb if he gets in.

Conor Lamb is a fraud. He voted against a bill to federally decriminalize marijuana because he felt it was a waste of time. Talk about living in the past.

I'm not a staunch progressive, so I'm not going to jump into that angle of the argument. But didn't Lamb underperform Biden last year? This doesn't give me confidence that he would be any better than Fetterman at winning this race for the Democrats.

[Calthrina950]

I get that some people seem to think the Democratic primary is all that matters in this race (this race seems to be the new poster child for Atlas' "Democratic candidate quality matters, all Republican candidates are clowns" shtick), but no Republican will be "toast" in a general election for federal office in PA in 2022, please get real.

One potentially strong Republican candidate hasn't even announced yet-Guy Reschenthaler. This Senate race is certainly not one which Democrats can take for granted. It's as if people forget that Biden only won the state by slightly over 1%, and he was considered to be the best fit of any Democratic presidential candidate for it.

[Calthrina950]

We’re still making electability arguments? Even when several progressive Democrats overperformed Biden and quite a few moderate Democrats (including Lamb) underperformed him? I could easily see Lamb being a Patrick Murphy-esque dud as a Senate candidate, so I don’t get why people are so sure he’d be such a terrific candidate, but either way, primaries should be about who has the best ideas and is the best at selling them, i.e. a time for debate, not a time to shut down the debate because we “know” who the most electable candidate is. I’d obviously prefer Lamb to a Republican, but Democrats should not want another Sinema in the Senate.

Which progressive Democrats that you are aware of overperformed Biden? I'm aware of Lamb's underperformance-which is why I'm not so sure that he would be the best (or better) candidate for Democrats here.

[Calthrina950]

Houlahan NOT running.

https://twitter.com/jonathantamari/status/1402302144754204677?s=21

Cool. The primary was already a bit crazily sized with Fetterman, Kenyatta, & potentially Lamb.

I didn't even know what she looked like until now. I certainly have lost sight of the appearances of some members of Congress recently.

[Calthrina950]

Former Arlen Specter aide Craig Snyder will announce today.

Next year’s race to represent Pennsylvania in the U.S. Senate will help shape the direction of the Republican Party. And Craig Snyder thinks there’s still time to take a sharp turn away from former President Donald Trump.

Snyder, a 60-year-old Republican from Philadelphia and onetime top aide to the late, moderate Sen. Arlen Specter, will announce his candidacy on Wednesday in a race that will help determine control of the Senate.

He’s aiming squarely at the political middle, allying himself with prominent anti-Trump Republicans, and calling for a party reckoning. His slogan: “Not Trumpism. Not Socialism. Common Sense.”

“In the absence of the kind of movement that I’m trying to mobilize, Pennsylvanians are going to end up next November with an unacceptable choice between a MAGA extremist and a woke progressive extremist,” Snyder, a business consultant and lobbyist, said in an interview Monday ahead of his formal announcement.

I don't think positioning oneself as a member of the Romney/Cheney/Kinzinger wing of the party is the way going forward, and besides, didn't Specter get run out of the Republican Party anyways?

Specter almost lost his primary to Pat Toomey in 2004 (Toomey was considered to be a staunch conservative back then), and was saved from defeat by the support he got from Bush, Santorum, and other members of the Republican establishment. He subsequently switched parties in 2009, as he would have lost a rematch to Toomey, but ended up being defeated in the Democratic primary by Joe Sestak, who himself then lost to Toomey in the general. Either way, Specter was a goner in 2010.

And yes, I agree with you that positioning oneself as a member of the neoconservative wing isn't going to lead to your advancement in today's Republican Party. Cheney and Kinzinger are themselves in danger of losing their primaries next year, and Romney may not run for reelection in 2024.

[Calthrina950]

Seeing Blue MAGA rush from Kenyatta to Lamb says all their priorities.

They'd rather stop the left than fight for the Democratic agenda - let alone a progressive one.

Do you believe that Lamb would "stab Democrats in the back" like Sinema has? Or at least, how many have perceived her to have done?

[Calthrina950]

Seeing Blue MAGA rush from Kenyatta to Lamb says all their priorities.

They'd rather stop the left than fight for the Democratic agenda - let alone a progressive one.

Do you believe that Lamb would "stab Democrats in the back" like Sinema has? Or at least, how many have perceived her to have done?

I do. My position is that he says things, but with the way he campaigns, the reasons he's used to justify his votes, and the state's trend, I don't trust him.

Lamb seems to be trying to reposition himself as an "anti-Trump" liberal, judging from his announcement video. He seems to have shifted to the left compared to his earlier days as a Representative, but I suspect that's because he's trying to appeal to the Democratic primary base rather than Trump voters, as he did when he ran against Saccone.

[Calthrina950]

Seeing Blue MAGA rush from Kenyatta to Lamb says all their priorities.

They'd rather stop the left than fight for the Democratic agenda - let alone a progressive one.

Do you believe that Lamb would "stab Democrats in the back" like Sinema has? Or at least, how many have perceived her to have done?

I do. My position is that he says things, but with the way he campaigns, the reasons he's used to justify his votes, and the state's trend, I don't trust him.

Lamb seems to be trying to reposition himself as an "anti-Trump" liberal, judging from his announcement video. He seems to have shifted to the left compared to his earlier days as a Representative, but I suspect that's because he's trying to appeal to the Democratic primary base rather than Trump voters, as he did when he ran against Saccone.

This is essentially my position. Once he has to appeal to Trump voters again everything goes out the window.

But how many Trump voters can Lamb realistically pickup? He decked himself out as a Blue Dog Democrat in his congressional race and barely defeated Saccone. He was reliant upon the left-trending Pittsburgh suburbs for that victory, as Saccone held up in the more Trumpian rural and exurban areas. In a Senatorial race against Parnell, I imagine that Lamb's gains, relative to McGinty, would be concentrated in the collar counties of Philadelphia, Dauphin County, Cumberland County, Lancaster County, and Allegheny County, and that he would lose ground in outstate Pennsylvania. Decking himself out as a Blue Dog again wouldn't help Lamb escape broader trends.

[Calthrina950]

Fetterman will win the primary, appear to be ahead in polling, but lose to Parnell by 3-5 points.

If Fetterman lost, it would probably be a ~1-2% margin. Toomey himself never won by more than 2%, and I don't see why Parnell would.

[Calthrina950]

Yep, those Fox News clips are gonna be great for the suburbs!

https://twitter.com/maxasteele/status/1439973644474716163

This looks and sounds like an ad which a Democratic candidate would have made about Parnell.

[Calthrina950]

Is there any scenario where this race isn't Fetterman v Parnell?

Yes, the scenario where it's Fetterman vs. Dr. Oz, of course: https://freebeacon.com/politics/dr-oz-prepares-to-jump-into-pennsylvania-senate-race/

I hope Dr. Oz enjoys the significant increase in work/decrease in pay he's signing up for.

I didn't even realize that Dr. Oz was a Republican or that he leaned to the right. But I doubt he would win the Republican primary.

[Calthrina950]

Is there any scenario where this race isn't Fetterman v Parnell?

Yes, the scenario where it's Fetterman vs. Dr. Oz, of course: https://freebeacon.com/politics/dr-oz-prepares-to-jump-into-pennsylvania-senate-race/

I hope Dr. Oz enjoys the significant increase in work/decrease in pay he's signing up for.

I didn't even realize that Dr. Oz was a Republican or that he leaned to the right. But I doubt he would win the Republican primary.

Thinking about this further, I shouldn't be too surprised about Oz's political allegiance. I believe he and Dr. Phil both were criticized last year for comments which they made about the pandemic.

[Calthrina950]

Assuming that he gets through the primary, I could definitely see Dr. Oz winning a general election. He's very widely known, and among the Republican base at least, his status as a political outsider would be of benefit to him.

[Calthrina950]

Would Dr Oz be a good candidate? Does anyone know his political stances?

We are talking about a guy that quit being a heart surgeon to sell quack remedies on daytime tv.

I doubt he has any firm beliefs beyond what keeps the grift going.

He's the perfect fit for the party of Donald Trump.

I've caught some of his episodes, and he seems to be spending most of his time on "true crime" and "real life" stories and interviews these days, similar to what you might have seen on the Oprah Winfrey Show years ago. And it seems like many blacks are fans of his show, for reasons I don't entirely understand (as a black person).

[Calthrina950]

I'm still shocked that Dr. Oz is a Republican and that he has political ambitions.

[Calthrina950]

You are going to see more celebrities and athletes run for office. They have political views like the rest of us, they pay income taxes like the rest of us, they vote, so why can't they have a say, as long as they know what they are talking about.

Lawyers and politicians have been running for so long and a lot of people feel they have not gained anything from them being in office.

Oz could beat Fetterman and peel off Black voters, a lot of Black people watch his show and if Fetterman's scandal with the gun and the Black jogger emerges again, Fetterman could be in a lot of problems.

I'm not going to comment on the rest of this, but the bolded is true. I've caught a few episodes of The Dr. Oz Show, and black people definitely love his program.

[Calthrina950]

Tough look for Fetterman:

https://www.inquirer.com/politics/election/john-fetterman-2022-senate-race-black-clergy-20220125.html&outputType=app-web-view

Fetterman’s campaign said his responsibilities presiding over the Senate on their first day of the 2022 session “made his attendance literally impossible.” The state constitution has provisions for the Senate President Pro Tempore to lead the chamber when the lieutenant governor is absent, and Fetterman has missed sessions before, though not frequently.

The Senate session in Harrisburg ended at 4:50 p.m. on Jan. 18, the day of the forum. The event in Philadelphia, roughly two hours away by car, began at 7 p.m.

In a letter Fetterman sent the clergy before the event, he apologized for missing it, said he hoped to speak with them another time, and highlighted some of the work he has done on economic inequality, criminal justice, and voting rights. “I understand how important the forum is,” he wrote, “and I very much wish that I could be there.” Fetterman also met last year with the host church’s pastor Alyn Waller, the campaign said

Fetterman’s campaign also canceled on a December forum organized by the group Indivisible Narberth and Beyond, which said his campaign hasn’t responded to requests to reschedule. In Western Pennsylvania, Progress PA, a coalition of progressive groups, is struggling to schedule him for a candidate event.

“We’ve reached out several times and it does not appear he’s available,” said Stacey Vernallis, a co-lead of Progress PA. “This is what democracy is at its finest — bringing candidates to the voters.”

Fetterman’s public events are often shared with the news media only after they’ve occurred. Multiple requests by Inquirer reporters to join him on the campaign trail have gone unanswered.

Nancy Kleinberg, a fundraiser and organizer in Montgomery County, said Fetterman backed out of a call with the Indivisible Narberth group and never responded to four attempts to reschedule. She’d planned to ask about the jogger incident. U.S. Rep. Conor Lamb (D., Pa.), Kenyatta, and Arkoosh all participated.

Tracy Baton, a Democratic activist in Western Pennsylvania, said even progressive voters from Fetterman’s part of the state have found him hard to reach.

“It’s not just that he doesn’t want to answer questions about specific issues right now, but he doesn’t feel he has to answer questions for the voters, period,” Baton said. “And that’s really problematic to me.”

Democrats would be advised to avoid both Lamb and Fetterman, and to nominate someone like Arkoosh or Kenyatta. They're not favorites to win this race, given the national political environment, so they ought to go for a candidate who actually campaigns and who holds views that are in alignment with the base.

[Calthrina950]

Area man meets with President:

https://twitter.com/PopulismUpdates/status/1487149671491407877?s=20&t=rwJRLs...

I don't understand people who wear shorts in freezing and snowy weather. I see it all the time in Colorado, though. My father used to make derisive remarks about people he saw dressing like that.

[Calthrina950]

Well, good luck. We deserve to lose if we nominate Lamb.

Neither Fetterman nor Lamb look like they would be good candidates for the Democrats, as I've said before. They ought to take a risk with Kenyatta, or at least with Arkoosh, who might bring something to the table that these two won't. If you're going to lose, you should at least fight hard.

[Calthrina950]

Who the f**k calls their kid Coleman anyway?

The long-time Democratic Mayor of Detroit in the late 20th century was named Coleman, and he was black.

[Calthrina950]

Who the f**k calls their kid Coleman anyway?

The long-time Democratic Mayor of Detroit in the late 20th century was named Coleman, and he was black.

A white person having it sounds like a uber-posh name.

Names as a whole are an interesting subject. I've said before that blacks are stereotyped or discriminated against for having "ethnic" or "Afro-centric" names, but the names that many whites have are odd as well. Names like Caitlin, Jacen, Kaylee, Kylie, and so on, and variants thereof, have always been jarring to me.

[Calthrina950]

At this point, I’m pretty much expecting Lamb to win the primary, and it might not be especially close. Fetterman has just been very sloppy and made many unforced errors, and while I’d probably prefer Kenyatta at this point, it doesn’t seem like he’s gained enough traction.

All of this. Fetterman's campaign has been a hot mess so far, and the crazy thing is that he pretty much had everything he needed to run a good campaign, but he's failed at every turn. Lots of unforced errors.

Primaries can certainly be a blessing, in that they can (although certainly not always) root out the weaker candidates. This primary certainly seems to be playing that function here.