PA-SN 2022 megathread: Shrek vs. The Wizard of Oz

[Gracile]

Yeah, Trump won PA-08 by ~4.5% last year.

Has Cartwright even expressed interest in a Senate run? He's easily one of the most vulnerable Democrats in the House (arguably the most) and is virtually a goner no matter what, so a Senate run might be a bit better (though it's hardly a guarantee as overperforming the lean of one's district doesn't necessarily mean someone can win as partisan headwinds can eliminate those advantages quickly).

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If one subscribes to the belief that Conor Lamb is a strong candidate, I struggle to see how one can also argue that Sean Parnell isn't at least average.

Lamb's saving grace for underperforming Biden is that he did it by less than most House Democrats, but even then, he benefited from lagging trends.

I agree with this. Additionally, a scenario where the national environment isn't on the Democrats' side (likely in 2022) could easily put Parnell over the top based on his 2020 performance.

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If one subscribes to the belief that Conor Lamb is a strong candidate, I struggle to see how one can also argue that Sean Parnell isn't at least average.

Lamb's saving grace for underperforming Biden is that he did it by less than most House Democrats, but even then, he benefited from lagging trends.

I agree with this. Additionally, a scenario where the national environment isn't on the Democrats' side (likely in 2022) could easily put Parnell over the top based on his 2020 performance.

Based on his performance in one district. OK.

We obviously don't know how Parnell do in a statewide race yet, but my point is more that people shouldn't make him out to be a disaster candidate when he performed roughly similarly to Trump in a swingy district that's close to the statewide margin. At the very least, I think he would be close to Generic R.

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Costello is a bit of a joke who would never get through a primary because of his anti-Trump views. He's not a credible candidate for the PA GOP.

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Despite the Trump endorsement, I never thought Parnell was anywhere close to a lock in this primary. Wonder if Costello or Reschenthaler get in now.

Costello would never get through a primary.

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After Donald Trump's win here in 2016, nobody should underestimate the power of Pennsylvania (and America too) to be taken in by low culture TV personalities who act under the guise of being experts in their field. The audience of these programs is a crucial voting bloc in today's political environment.

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These conversations are unproductive. The fact is any Democrat is going to be an underdog in this race by nature of the fundamentals of Pennsylvania in a heavily Republican-leaning year. I really don't see Lamb or Fetterman being particularly likely to outrun the partisan lean in this year's environment (and I say this as someone who strongly prefers Fetterman in this race).

[Gracile]

I don't think the Fetterman campaign is limited to Twitter owns, and the debates could be something to see if he's like this on the campaign trail.

That's not to say that it would be enough to make this race defy the national environment, though. I'd still bet against Fetterman unless the environment improves at least a bit for Democrats.

I agree with this take. I'll also add that the strategy of making owns on Twitter hasn't just been limited to Fetterman's campaign and isn't the kind of thing that would get noticed by voters who are not heavily online. I mean here's a tweet from a Congresswoman who just overperformed Trump by double-digits in a special election (and will likely make her next election competitive) that sounds like it could come straight from some Election Twitter teen-

https://twitter.com/MayraFlores2022/status/1540723627343192065

Social media generally has created an environment that exacerbates the use of juvenile, vacuous comments and "owns" by campaigns, and it's something we should anticipate in the future.

[Gracile]

Agreed, serious question. Can we consider having one thread for real updates and one thread for posting Fetterman memes every 5 minutes? This is getting beyond the scope of what’s interesting and frankly what’s useful

No, I don't see a point in having a separate thread for that, as I'm generally against posting a large share of campaign news outside of consolidated megathreads. Furthermore, social media posts from candidates and the discussion that it leads to (no matter how silly) are "real updates" that are firmly within the scope of this thread.

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People keep saying this race could be like FL-SEN 2018, i.e. defying a wave year otherwise bad for the party that wins in this swing state by the skin of its teeth.

But what if it's more like MI-SEN 2014? Gary Peters outdid his polls and Obama 2012 and won by double digits in an otherwise abysmal year for Democrats. If Oz continues to crash and burn as a candidate, I could see Fetterman winning comfortably being at least as likely as his winning only narrowly. No matter what the overall national environment (which currently looks pretty neutral on the GCB) is like for Democrats.

I don't think PA's electorate (or really any state for that matter) is primed for that kind of massive overperformance of the fundamentals that occurred in MI-SEN 2014 even with a subpar candidate like Oz. Even Peters himself was kept to a close victory in a better cycle in 2020.

[Gracile]

Dr. Oz is looking more clueless with campaigning than ever. Shopping at "Wegner's" LOL. Looks more out of touch than ever.

That's where you draw the line?

Parochial Pennsylvania moment.

[Gracile]

https://twitter.com/gldivittorio/status/1580664747980386305

Broke: Oz lives in New Jersey and should be sent back there
Woke: Oz should be exiled to Delaware where he can soak up all the credit card money he wants and would basically be a median Democrat

Dr. Oz would be considered a moderate socialist in Delaware imo.

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Hot take but this debate will change nothing and people will forget about it by election day as with pretty much every other debate in the last 6 years.

Not that hot of a take (and I agree). I'm a bit shocked this debate is generating so much attention.

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PA-SEN results by State House district:

https://twitter.com/4st8/status/1606832534368706561