The “Who is running in 2024?” tea leaves thread

[Coldstream]

GOP Megadonors are lining up behind Tim Scott

Republican Sen. Tim Scott boarded a plane to Hawaii earlier this year to meet with one of the richest people in the world: Tech titan Larry Ellison.

Ellison’s remote Lanai Island home was well out of the South Carolina senator’s way. But for Scott, who like the 76-year-old Ellison is an outspoken advocate for school choice, cultivating the mogul has paid dividends — and could even help propel a 2024 presidential bid. Since last October, Ellison has contributed $10 million to an outside group aligned with the senator — a huge sum even in the super PAC era and the business owner’s biggest known contribution in three decades as a political donor.


Scott’s behind-the-scenes courtship of Ellison illustrates how the senator has quietly become a powerhouse fundraiser and a major force within the Republican Party. Scott, the only Black Republican in the Senate, has seen his profile rise since delivering the party’s response to President Joe Biden’s joint address to Congress in April and is developing a vast network of small- and large-dollar donors that spans his party’s ideological spectrum, helping him far outraise Senate colleagues this year.


The pro-Scott super PAC, Opportunity Matters Fund, has drawn support from conservative donors like Richard Gaby, who has bankrolled the likes of former President Donald Trump and Georgia Rep. Marjorie Taylor Greene. But Scott has also received backing from the party’s mainstream givers, like New York hedge fund manager Dan Loeb, a financier of gay rights initiatives who is slated to host a fundraiser bolstering Scott later this year.

Whilst Trump seems likely to run - and win the nomination - I can’t quite see the GOP Financial elite just meekly accepting the renomination of a man who is almost certain to lose again to the ‘socialists’. So Scott could be an effective candidate for them to rally behind in the primary.

[Pres Mike]

GOP Megadonors are lining up behind Tim Scott

Republican Sen. Tim Scott boarded a plane to Hawaii earlier this year to meet with one of the richest people in the world: Tech titan Larry Ellison.

Ellison’s remote Lanai Island home was well out of the South Carolina senator’s way. But for Scott, who like the 76-year-old Ellison is an outspoken advocate for school choice, cultivating the mogul has paid dividends — and could even help propel a 2024 presidential bid. Since last October, Ellison has contributed $10 million to an outside group aligned with the senator — a huge sum even in the super PAC era and the business owner’s biggest known contribution in three decades as a political donor.


Scott’s behind-the-scenes courtship of Ellison illustrates how the senator has quietly become a powerhouse fundraiser and a major force within the Republican Party. Scott, the only Black Republican in the Senate, has seen his profile rise since delivering the party’s response to President Joe Biden’s joint address to Congress in April and is developing a vast network of small- and large-dollar donors that spans his party’s ideological spectrum, helping him far outraise Senate colleagues this year.


The pro-Scott super PAC, Opportunity Matters Fund, has drawn support from conservative donors like Richard Gaby, who has bankrolled the likes of former President Donald Trump and Georgia Rep. Marjorie Taylor Greene. But Scott has also received backing from the party’s mainstream givers, like New York hedge fund manager Dan Loeb, a financier of gay rights initiatives who is slated to host a fundraiser bolstering Scott later this year.

Whilst Trump seems likely to run - and win the nomination - I can’t quite see the GOP Financial elite just meekly accepting the renomination of a man who is almost certain to lose again to the ‘socialists’. So Scott could be an effective candidate for them to rally behind in the primary.

I could see elected officials and donors getting behind Scott. I could even see Trump endorsing Scott to prove "he's not racist" if he declines to run and feels DeSantis is trying to usurp him

That said, I really doubt the base will vote for Scott in the primaries without a full throttle endorsement from Trump as the second coming

[Progressive Pessimist]

Scott, if there is even a primary field, will be the obligatory "black friend" that always shows up in GOP primaries and never manages to crack even 1% in Iowa.

[NewYorkExpress]

Scott, if there is even a primary field, will be the obligatory "black friend" that always shows up in GOP primaries and never manages to crack even 1% in Iowa.

To be fair, I'm pretty sure Ben Carson got more than 1% in Iowa, let alone nationally.

In fact, Ben Carson got 9.3% of the vote in the Iowa Caucuses in 2016, so I think Scott would do just fine in Iowa if Trump for some reason wasn't running.

[Mr. Morden]

Scott, if there is even a primary field, will be the obligatory "black friend" that always shows up in GOP primaries and never manages to crack even 1% in Iowa.

To be fair, I'm pretty sure Ben Carson got more than 1% in Iowa, let alone nationally.

In fact, Ben Carson got 9.3% of the vote in the Iowa Caucuses in 2016, so I think Scott would do just fine in Iowa if Trump for some reason wasn't running.

Also, Alan Keyes got 14% in Iowa in 2000.

[Progressive Pessimist]

^Even with all that in mind, I still don't think Scott would have much of an impact in a GOP primary.

[Pres Mike]

Scott, if there is even a primary field, will be the obligatory "black friend" that always shows up in GOP primaries and never manages to crack even 1% in Iowa.

To be fair, I'm pretty sure Ben Carson got more than 1% in Iowa, let alone nationally.

In fact, Ben Carson got 9.3% of the vote in the Iowa Caucuses in 2016, so I think Scott would do just fine in Iowa if Trump for some reason wasn't running.

Carson got 2.75% nationally

Buttigieg got 26% of Iowa, 2.55% nationally

Iowa is not accurate

[Mr. Morden]

The latest from Trumpworld on 2024:

https://news.yahoo.com/trump-world-sees-building-wave-185500207.html

His friends describe the president as eager to entertain another campaign, though it is not a lock and depends on how the 2022 midterm election goes.
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Others said Trump has recently lost some weight, feels good, and is engaged in current issues. He is especially watchful of President Joe Biden’s efforts to tear down his legacy and spoil policies the Republican Party believes were winners, such as immigration.

“He’s getting stronger and stronger as each day passes,” an associate said. “The enthusiasm is not dwindling at all, it’s amazing.”

In other news, John Bolton will be doing an event in South Carolina on Oct. 1st:

https://www.fitsnews.com/2021/08/11/john-bolton-is-coming-to-south-carolina/

[Real Texan Politics]

In other news, John Bolton will be doing an event in South Carolina on Oct. 1st:

https://www.fitsnews.com/2021/08/11/john-bolton-is-coming-to-south-carolina/

Does he really have a future within the GOP? I really doubt it.

[Mr. Morden]

Trump hiring Iowa staff:

https://www.politico.com/news/2021/08/12/trump-pac-iowa-2024-504294

Donald Trump’s Save America PAC has hired two political operatives from Iowa, a sign the former president hasn’t closed the door on a 2024 run for the White House.

Eric Branstad and Alexander Latcham were hired with a “broad political portfolio focused on advancing Save America’s goals of electing strong, Pro-Trump, America First conservatives,” a Save America spokesperson told POLITICO. The news was first reported by Bloomberg.

Latcham, who worked in the Trump White House in political affairs, moved back to Iowa — the state that typically kicks off the race for the White House — earlier this year. Branstad also lives in Iowa and served as Trump’s Iowa state director. He later worked in the Commerce Department.

[Mr. Morden]

Cotton was in the early caucus state of Nevada this past weekend:

https://news.yahoo.com/cotton-2022-efforts-set-table-144702689.html

While there, he was asked about 2024:

On Saturday, Cotton demurred when asked twice by Fox News about 2024.

He emphasized that the 2022 midterms are "the election that's in my eye sights" and he added that "we'll let future elections work themselves out."

[Mr. Morden]

Pompeo:

https://www.cjonline.com/story/news/politics/2021/08/16/mike-pompeo-visits-oil-producers-fundraisers-conservative-pac-kansas-2022-elections-trump-abortion/8107713002/

Pompeo, a close ally of former President Donald Trump, has been speaking and fundraising in Kansas in recent days. On Monday, he was the keynote luncheon speaker at the Kansas Independent Oil & Gas Association annual convention.

“CAVPAC [Pompeo’s PAC] is designed to give me the capacity to go out and help candidates win in 2022, and that’s my political future,” Pompeo told reporters after his speech. “I’m going to go and help these folks win. And then the Lord knows what will happen after that.” 
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Federal Election Commission reports show the Pompeo for Kansas candidate committee had more than $1 million at the start of the calendar year. By June 30, the amount had dipped to about $845,000 — primarily due to a $150,000 transfer and $5,000 contribution to Champion American Values.

[NewYorkExpress]

Kamala Harris expanding her political network.

Kamala Harris took out her notebook and pen, put her elbows on the long shiny table and looked at the women surrounding her.

“Tell me what you got,” she said, according to one of the meeting’s attendees. It was a group of women labor leaders and women entrepreneurs there to discuss the pandemic recovery and getting women back to work.


The vice president was in her ceremonial office in the Eisenhower Executive Office Building. A bust of Frederick Douglass, on loan from her alma mater Howard University, always sits over her shoulder. She will often call attention to it as a reminder to attendees of the stakes and importance of their work.


Since 1980, vice presidents have used this space as a secondary office (the one in the West Wing is closer to the president and serves as the primary work space). Harris has used it to swear in Cabinet members, do interviews and to give remarks alongside the South Korean president.

But for the seven months since she was sworn in herself, Harris has mostly used the office to build a network of allies and associates that can serve two purposes: strengthen the administration’s connections with key power players and groups while building an unofficial political operation in waiting — one she could activate for a future presidential bid.

The two-for-one approach gives Harris a chance to raise her profile both within the administration and for whatever comes after, as she seeks to find her footing as vice president, in a Beltway environment she is still learning to navigate. Adding to her challenges is a policy portfolio laden with politically combustible issues like immigration and voting rights, which has made her a favorite target for conservatives. Some longtime supporters told POLITICO in June they were concerned Harris had stepped too far back from politics. Now even some of her closest allies have recognized she needs help fending off the incoming fire.

Veteran Democratic strategist James Carville said building a national network is a smart move for Harris — or anyone with presidential ambitions. “Any prospective candidate would be doing the same. [Whoever’s] idea it was: Her, somebody on the staff or a consultant, I think it's a good idea,” Carville added. “If I was one of her advisers, I’d vote for it.”

[anonpa]

  I hope Biden and Harris win re-election.  I really like them.  Besides, they could help change the national conversation given enough time.

[CascadianIndy]

https://twitter.com/mtgreenee/status/1428423514089037826

I really hope she's just there for the food.

[Mr. Morden]

Trump on 2024:

https://www.newsweek.com/donald-trump-hints-2024-presidential-run-people-very-happy-1620893

Towards the end of the Newsmax interview, Kelly asked Trump about the 2024 election.

"As we say goodnight, sir, thoughts on 2024 and you. What are you thinking right now?" Kelly asked.

Trump replied: "So, look, I love this country. I hate what's happening to it. I hate it."

"And we're not gonna have a country anymore if it keeps going like this week," he said. "We're a laughing stock all over the world and I think a lot of people are going to be very happy."

Trump has used similar phrasing regarding a potential 2024 run in the past. In May, he appeared by phone on Candace Owen's show for the Daily Wire and said: "I think people are going to be very, very happy when I make a certain announcement."

[TiltsAreUnderrated]

Trump on 2024:

https://www.newsweek.com/donald-trump-hints-2024-presidential-run-people-very-happy-1620893

Towards the end of the Newsmax interview, Kelly asked Trump about the 2024 election.

"As we say goodnight, sir, thoughts on 2024 and you. What are you thinking right now?" Kelly asked.

Trump replied: "So, look, I love this country. I hate what's happening to it. I hate it."

"And we're not gonna have a country anymore if it keeps going like this week," he said. "We're a laughing stock all over the world and I think a lot of people are going to be very happy."

Trump has used similar phrasing regarding a potential 2024 run in the past. In May, he appeared by phone on Candace Owen's show for the Daily Wire and said: "I think people are going to be very, very happy when I make a certain announcement."

In or out, he won't be wrong.

[Utah Neolib]

  I hope Biden and Harris win re-election.  I really like them.  Besides, they could help change the national conversation given enough time.

Welcome to Atlas!

[Mr. Morden]

https://twitter.com/mtgreenee/status/1428423514089037826

I really hope she's just there for the food.

She did an event there with Matt Gaetz yesterday:

https://www.desmoinesregister.com/story/news/politics/2021/08/19/reps-marjorie-taylor-greene-mtg-matt-gaetz-hold-america-first-rally-des-moines-iowa-donald-trump/5539728001/

[Mr. Morden]

The Republican Jewish Coalition will hold its annual event in Las Vegas, NV in November, and Pence, Pompeo, Haley, and DeSantis will all be speaking there:

https://jewishinsider.com/2021/08/republican-jewish-coalition-presidential-hopefuls/

[Mr. Morden]

Rick Scott’s in NH this weekend:

https://www.concordmonitor.com/On-the-Trail-42050703

[Mr. Morden]

A story here about the GOP race in Iowa:

https://nymag.com/intelligencer/2021/08/donald-trump-is-the-elephant-in-the-room-in-2024.html

“Tom Cotton will literally come for any event you want him to,” one Republican said. Cotton was particularly praised for his efforts on the ground, with one operative noting that “he’s building personal relationships not just in Iowa but elsewhere.” The question is whether the somber Arkansan described as “boring” by one operative would resonate with Republican voters after a half-decade of the Trump show. By contrast, Pompeo has been praised for his ability to connect with both MAGA and Establishment voters and for showing up in Iowa repeatedly.

[NYSforKennedy2024]

The Libertarian Party has its first potential candidate, "Part of the Problem" Podcast host Dave Smith.

Smith calls out Jo Jorgensen, claiming that she should've taken a larger anti-mandate, anti-lockdown approach.

https://reason.com/podcast/2021/07/28/dave-smith-libertarians-vs-big-tech-big-government-and-other-libertarians/

[Absentee Voting Ghost of Ruin]

The Libertarian Party has its first potential candidate, "Part of the Problem" Podcast host Dave Smith.

Smith calls out Jo Jorgensen, claiming that she should've taken a larger anti-mandate, anti-lockdown approach.

https://reason.com/podcast/2021/07/28/dave-smith-libertarians-vs-big-tech-big-government-and-other-libertarians/

So at least one libertarian faction will be running on the "COVID didn't kill enough Americans" platform. Bold choice.

[Mr. Morden]

Trump on 2024:

https://thehill.com/homenews/campaign/569181-trump-teases-potential-2024-bid-amid-afghanistan-crisis?rl=1

“We won it twice. I've won it twice and now I have to win it again. I guess if we're going to save the country, look ... I'll make a decision,” Trump told conservative talk show host Lisa Boothe on her podcast “The Truth with Lisa Booth.”

“It won't be maybe for a little while. You know, a lot of people would like to see a decision immediately, but perhaps there's also a big group, including maybe myself, that would like to see it after the midterms,” he continued.