The “Who is running in 2024?” tea leaves thread
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  The “Who is running in 2024?” tea leaves thread
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Mr. Morden
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« on: November 30, 2019, 04:42:56 PM »

I’ve held off on this so far, but with the 2024 presidential primary season upon us, it’s time to make this thread.

This thread is for news about the potential 2024 presidential candidates making news towards running (or not), including their public statements on the matter, visits to early primary states, etc.  It is *not* intended for "Hey, what about X?  Maybe he'll run." type posts, that aren't grounded in any actual news.

I’ve made some other scattered threads in past months about possible 2024 news that I’ll re-post at some point here, but for now let me start off with this story on Pence, Cruz, and others visiting NH:

https://www.politico.com/news/2019/11/07/mike-pence-president-2024-067313

Quote
Current and former Republican party officials, and Pence's own camp, said the visit was aimed solely at winning a state Trump lost by 3,000 votes. But there’s more going on behind the scenes, with Pence and others, that point to four years from now.

Gov. John Kasich is also in the state Thursday — with much less fanfare — for a book signing at the University of New Hampshire. Sen. Ted Cruz was in New Hampshire last week to help raise money for former House speaker Bill O’Brien, who is now running for Senate. Cruz will be back next week to speak to conservative activists at a prominent free-market think tank.
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Cruz may have a leg up given his long-standing relationships with libertarian-minded Republicans. His decision to headline a fundraiser for the Josiah Bartlett Center, a free-market think tank, is a clear sign he's keeping up his rapport with some of the state’s leading conservatives.

“I think he’s clearly stoking the embers,” Mowers said. “Guys like Cruz haven’t kept it a secret he may want to run for office again. I’m sure he’s keeping track of every business card he gets on those trips.”
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Activists said others they're watching for 2024 clues are Sen. Ben Sasse of Nebraska; Sen. Tom Cotton of Arkansas; Sen. Rand Paul of Kentucky; former ambassador to the United Nations Nikki Haley; and Secretary of State Mike Pompeo.

Then there’s this on Nikki Haley:

https://nypost.com/2019/11/13/nikki-haley-keeps-door-open-for-2024-presidential-run/

Quote
Haley, who discussed her book “With All Due Respect” at the 92nd Street Y Tuesday night,  sought to deflect the question when asked by Fox News’ Dana Perino about a 2024 candidacy.

“A year is a lifetime in politics,” Haley said. “It would be a waste of time to think about 2024 at this point.”

But Haley then added, “Instead I want to do everything I do really well now and just see if doors open.”
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Mr. Morden
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« Reply #1 on: November 30, 2019, 06:08:30 PM »

Other 2024 news from earlier this year that I’ll repost here….

In this thread:
https://uselectionatlas.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=315708.0
I noted that Pompeo visited Iowa earlier this year.  And also that he’s said that he’s thought about running for president at some point:

More Pompeo 2024 watch: He might run for US Senate in Kansas as a stepping stone to a presidential run:

https://www.politico.com/story/2019/06/25/mike-pompeo-senate-kansas-trump-1378323

Quote
For Pompeo, a Senate run could be a prelude to a presidential run in 2024. At the least, a spot in the Senate would keep him politically relevant regardless of Trump’s fate in 2020. Still, some senators said privately that the gravitas of the secretary of State post would position him better for a White House run than if he were one of the most junior senators in the building.

Pompeo himself has spoken privately about the prospect of a presidential run. He and his friend Sen. Tom Cotton (R-Ark.) attended a private dinner at the American Enterprise Institute’s annual retreat in Sea Island, Ga., this spring.

Asked whether he’s considered running for president, Pompeo responded, “I have,” and then pointed at Cotton and joked: “And I might be running against that guy,” according to one attendee.


Also earlier this year, Cruz says he hopes to run again:

https://www.csmonitor.com/USA/Politics/monitor_breakfast/2019/0912/Ted-Cruz-eyes-the-White-House-I-hope-to-run-again

Quote
“Look, I hope to run again,” said Senator Cruz, who was the runner-up last time to Donald Trump for the Republican presidential nomination. “We came very, very close in 2016. And it’s the most fun I’ve ever had in my life.”

And Will Hurd has done several early primary state visits:

Quote
TM: You’ve been traveling and scheduling trips to New Hampshire, Iowa, and South Carolina. Those are early presidential primary states. Are you laying the groundwork for a 2024 presidential run? What you’ve said about trying to help out candidates nationwide feels like what someone exploring a presidential run would not.

WH: I am not going to run in 2020. My goal is to help other folks, other candidates in the 2020 election.

TM: Yeah, but 2024, you might run for some office?

WH: Look, I’m about to turn 42 years old, I’m sure this is probably not the last time I run for elected office. Who knows? I’m looking forward to helping great people, like I said, like Wesley Hunt, and staying involved in technology and national security. If opportunities arise, we’ll evaluate them as they come.

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« Reply #2 on: December 01, 2019, 02:12:20 AM »

If Trump wins 2020 then Pence will have the upper hand, if Trump loses its all fair game, and we could see a whole lot of new candidates making their mark. I have been waiting for this for a while, and as a disgruntled Republican who is eager for new faces, let the early speculation commence.
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Person Man
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« Reply #3 on: December 01, 2019, 10:51:06 PM »

If Trump wins 2020 then Pence will have the upper hand, if Trump loses its all fair game, and we could see a whole lot of new candidates making their mark. I have been waiting for this for a while, and as a disgruntled Republican who is eager for new faces, let the early speculation commence.
Its going to be a tough road for a Populist unless a Democrat wins in 2020 and its very very close. In 2024, they could still point to an initial election and a narrow loss and say "Trump was just garbage but if garbage can do that well on a populist platform, how far do you think a normal president could get on populism?"

If Trump loses by a lot, it will be seen as an indictment of populism. If Trump wins, that puts a traditional Evangelical-Properity Gospel type in the driver's seat in 2024.  If this is the case, maybe Pence will perfect a new form of intersectionalism that blends a lot of Reagan's original ideas with both W's and Trump's.
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Mr. Morden
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« Reply #4 on: December 21, 2019, 05:42:47 PM »

Cotton says he "intends" to serve out his next 6 year term if reelected in 2020, but doesn't seem to make any ironclad promises:

https://www.nwaonline.com/news/2019/aug/08/cotton-says-his-focus-is-on-2020-servin/

Quote
"I'm very grateful that the people of Arkansas sent me there for the past four years, and that's why I'm asking for another six years," Cotton said. "I expect I will serve six more years for the people of Arkansas."

Asked about a presidential run in five years, Cotton again pointed to next year's Senate campaign.

"I'm focused on the Senate campaign of 2020," he said. "These days, a week is a lifetime in politics, much less six years."
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« Reply #5 on: December 21, 2019, 07:23:37 PM »

Pence is unelectable
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pops
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« Reply #6 on: December 21, 2019, 10:21:05 PM »

Donald Trump, Jr. reposts Instagram post suggesting he should run:
https://www.independent.co.uk/news/world/americas/us-politics/donald-trump-jr-us-president-2024-election-republican-candidate-instagram-story-a8793886.html

John Kasich says running in 2024 is "a possibility":
https://www.foxnews.com/politics/john-kasich-republican-run-ruled-out-white-house

Chris Christie won't rule out 2024 bid:
https://www.politico.com/story/2019/02/04/chris-christie-presidential-election-2024-1144919

Larry Hogan says he's open to a 2024 campaign:
https://www.baltimoresun.com/politics/bs-md-hogan-2024-story.html

It's hard to get anything out of likely Democrat candidates like Harris, Kennedy III, and Hickenlooper amongst others. The reasons for silence amongst Dems are obvious, as either they'll have an incumbent President or they'll be outright saying they won't win if they try to make any statements on running before the election is decided. The only way there's major chatter is if Dems are heading towards a likely loss (you may remember discussion about the 2020 Republican primary back in 2016, for example).
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Mr. Morden
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« Reply #7 on: December 22, 2019, 11:34:54 AM »

The reasons for silence amongst Dems are obvious, as either they'll have an incumbent President or they'll be outright saying they won't win if they try to make any statements on running before the election is decided. The only way there's major chatter is if Dems are heading towards a likely loss (you may remember discussion about the 2020 Republican primary back in 2016, for example).

We'll probably get some hints at the convention because what normally happens is that those with future presidential ambition schedule meetings with the early primary state delegations.  This can happen even if the party's current year candidate is seen as likely to win.  E.g., Booker, Castro, Klobuchar, and Sanders all met with early primary state delegations at the 2016 Democratic National Convention.
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TrumpBritt24
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« Reply #8 on: December 27, 2019, 07:36:30 PM »

Politico piece on AOC running in 2024/28/32.

https://www.politico.com/news/2019/12/27/aoc-president-sanders-089617
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brucejoel99
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« Reply #9 on: December 28, 2019, 02:43:30 AM »


It'll be so delicious to see all the right-wing nuts bursting their blood vessels (& their nuts) over President AOC.
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SingingAnalyst
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« Reply #10 on: December 28, 2019, 10:07:50 AM »

Nikki Haley.
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Mr. Morden
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« Reply #11 on: December 28, 2019, 10:26:08 AM »


What about her?
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brucejoel99
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« Reply #12 on: December 28, 2019, 02:59:58 PM »


Yes.
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Mr. Morden
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« Reply #13 on: December 28, 2019, 05:07:50 PM »

Possible 2024 presidential candidate Mike Pompeo possibly running for US Senate in Kansas, and among the names being floated to replace him as Sos are fellow likely 2024 presidential candidates Cotton and Rubio:


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Junior Chimp
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« Reply #14 on: January 02, 2020, 07:32:07 PM »


It'll be so delicious to see all the right-wing nuts bursting their blood vessels (& their nuts) over President AOC.

This perfectly describes me.
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Mr. Morden
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« Reply #15 on: January 04, 2020, 04:18:49 PM »

Here's a rundown on 2024 maneuvering, that doesn't really break any big news, but is still an interesting read:

https://www.politico.com/news/magazine/2020/01/03/2024-presidential-election-candidates-091055
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Junior Chimp
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« Reply #16 on: January 05, 2020, 12:52:14 AM »

Here's a rundown on 2024 maneuvering, that doesn't really break any big news, but is still an interesting read:

https://www.politico.com/news/magazine/2020/01/03/2024-presidential-election-candidates-091055


This is a very good read.
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Dipper Josh
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« Reply #17 on: January 08, 2020, 10:50:12 PM »

I remember reading a story about a year back about Gavin Newsom buying facebook ads in Iowa already.

Plus in the words of my California friend: "Gavin Newsom has been running for President since I met him in about... oh 2010?"
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Junior Chimp
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« Reply #18 on: January 09, 2020, 11:08:44 AM »

I remember reading a story about a year back about Gavin Newsom buying facebook ads in Iowa already.

Plus in the words of my California friend: "Gavin Newsom has been running for President since I met him in about... oh 2010?"

He looks like a president, that's for sure. We will definitely see him run this decade.
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TrumpBritt24
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« Reply #19 on: January 25, 2020, 12:13:00 AM »

Gretchen Whitmer landed the role as speaker for the Democratic response to Trump's State of the Union address on February 4th.

Definitely another boost to her growing 2024 resume.

https://www.politico.com/news/2020/01/24/gretchen-whitmer-democratic-response-state-of-the-union-103526
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Los Angeles Swag Boss
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« Reply #20 on: January 28, 2020, 10:17:10 PM »

I think this article is very interesting and I do agree that you can figure out most of the major players 5 years out — and things get even more clear after the election.

I would point out that each of the past few elections brought someone who wouldn’t have been noticed 5 years prior being a decently sized player in the election. Here’s a list:

2020: Pete Buttigieg (South Bend Mayor) or Andrew Yang (businessman)
2016: Ted Cruz (Private Lawyer, Fmr. Texas Solicitor General running for Senate)
2012: Bachmann and Herman Cain [this year was harder to do]
2008: Barack Obama (State Senator running for Senate)
2004: Wesley Clark (NATO commander)
2000: Alan Keyes (State Department Assistant Undersecretary)

I could go on and on, but I think we should also expect at least one person who is WAY off of our radar to make an impact in the race along with the usual suspects in this article.

Here's a rundown on 2024 maneuvering, that doesn't really break any big news, but is still an interesting read:

https://www.politico.com/news/magazine/2020/01/03/2024-presidential-election-candidates-091055

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TrumpBritt24
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« Reply #21 on: January 28, 2020, 11:07:36 PM »

Rick Scott is buying attack ad TV space in Iowa to fight Joe Biden, surely a sign that he's looking toward the future politically.

https://www.politico.com/news/2020/01/28/florida-senator-iowa-bomb-biden-108416
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Roll Roons
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« Reply #22 on: January 29, 2020, 11:31:48 AM »

I think this article is very interesting and I do agree that you can figure out most of the major players 5 years out — and things get even more clear after the election.

I would point out that each of the past few elections brought someone who wouldn’t have been noticed 5 years prior being a decently sized player in the election. Here’s a list:

2020: Pete Buttigieg (South Bend Mayor) or Andrew Yang (businessman)
2016: Ted Cruz (Private Lawyer, Fmr. Texas Solicitor General running for Senate)
2012: Bachmann and Herman Cain [this year was harder to do]
2008: Barack Obama (State Senator running for Senate)
2004: Wesley Clark (NATO commander)
2000: Alan Keyes (State Department Assistant Undersecretary)

I could go on and on, but I think we should also expect at least one person who is WAY off of our radar to make an impact in the race along with the usual suspects in this article.

Here's a rundown on 2024 maneuvering, that doesn't really break any big news, but is still an interesting read:

https://www.politico.com/news/magazine/2020/01/03/2024-presidential-election-candidates-091055


I really wouldn't think of Alan Keyes as a "major" player in 2000. Plus for 2016 you're forgetting the biggest one. Yeah he was famous but who actually would have thought he'd go anywhere?
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Former Crackhead Mike Lindell
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« Reply #23 on: January 29, 2020, 11:45:15 AM »

2020: Pete Buttigieg (South Bend Mayor) or Andrew Yang (businessman)
2016: Ted Cruz (Private Lawyer, Fmr. Texas Solicitor General running for Senate)
2012: Bachmann and Herman Cain [this year was harder to do]
2008: Barack Obama (State Senator running for Senate)
2004: Wesley Clark (NATO commander)
2000: Alan Keyes (State Department Assistant Undersecretary)

For 2012, did anyone really see Newt Gingrich running? In 2008, was he on anyone's radar? That was a real blast from the past.

P.S. I knew Buttigieg would run and do well Wink But then I also had a thousand bucks waiting for me if Kamala was the nominee Sad
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Junior Chimp
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« Reply #24 on: January 29, 2020, 08:57:35 PM »

2020: Pete Buttigieg (South Bend Mayor) or Andrew Yang (businessman)
2016: Ted Cruz (Private Lawyer, Fmr. Texas Solicitor General running for Senate)
2012: Bachmann and Herman Cain [this year was harder to do]
2008: Barack Obama (State Senator running for Senate)
2004: Wesley Clark (NATO commander)
2000: Alan Keyes (State Department Assistant Undersecretary)

For 2012, did anyone really see Newt Gingrich running? In 2008, was he on anyone's radar? That was a real blast from the past.

P.S. I knew Buttigieg would run and do well Wink But then I also had a thousand bucks waiting for me if Kamala was the nominee Sad

Gingrich was deemed very likely to run in 2008, but he admitted afterward that his lane was taken and if he ran he pretty much wouldn't have a shot due to people like Huckabee drowning him out. I don't think 2012 was much of a stretch for him at all really.
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