The “Who is running in 2024?” tea leaves thread

[Pres Mike]

GOP Megadonors are lining up behind Tim Scott

Republican Sen. Tim Scott boarded a plane to Hawaii earlier this year to meet with one of the richest people in the world: Tech titan Larry Ellison.

Ellison’s remote Lanai Island home was well out of the South Carolina senator’s way. But for Scott, who like the 76-year-old Ellison is an outspoken advocate for school choice, cultivating the mogul has paid dividends — and could even help propel a 2024 presidential bid. Since last October, Ellison has contributed $10 million to an outside group aligned with the senator — a huge sum even in the super PAC era and the business owner’s biggest known contribution in three decades as a political donor.


Scott’s behind-the-scenes courtship of Ellison illustrates how the senator has quietly become a powerhouse fundraiser and a major force within the Republican Party. Scott, the only Black Republican in the Senate, has seen his profile rise since delivering the party’s response to President Joe Biden’s joint address to Congress in April and is developing a vast network of small- and large-dollar donors that spans his party’s ideological spectrum, helping him far outraise Senate colleagues this year.


The pro-Scott super PAC, Opportunity Matters Fund, has drawn support from conservative donors like Richard Gaby, who has bankrolled the likes of former President Donald Trump and Georgia Rep. Marjorie Taylor Greene. But Scott has also received backing from the party’s mainstream givers, like New York hedge fund manager Dan Loeb, a financier of gay rights initiatives who is slated to host a fundraiser bolstering Scott later this year.

Whilst Trump seems likely to run - and win the nomination - I can’t quite see the GOP Financial elite just meekly accepting the renomination of a man who is almost certain to lose again to the ‘socialists’. So Scott could be an effective candidate for them to rally behind in the primary.

I could see elected officials and donors getting behind Scott. I could even see Trump endorsing Scott to prove "he's not racist" if he declines to run and feels DeSantis is trying to usurp him

That said, I really doubt the base will vote for Scott in the primaries without a full throttle endorsement from Trump as the second coming

[Pres Mike]

Scott, if there is even a primary field, will be the obligatory "black friend" that always shows up in GOP primaries and never manages to crack even 1% in Iowa.

To be fair, I'm pretty sure Ben Carson got more than 1% in Iowa, let alone nationally.

In fact, Ben Carson got 9.3% of the vote in the Iowa Caucuses in 2016, so I think Scott would do just fine in Iowa if Trump for some reason wasn't running.

Carson got 2.75% nationally

Buttigieg got 26% of Iowa, 2.55% nationally

Iowa is not accurate

[Pres Mike]

Pence's non-profit hires Ali Kjergaard, a spokesman for Ben Sasse. Also, he's heading back to New Hampshire in the New Year.

Former Vice President Mike Pence is building out his political staff, the latest indication that he’s prepping a White House bid that will pit him against his former boss, ex-President Donald Trump.

Ali Kjergaard, a spokesperson for outgoing Nebraska Sen. Ben Sasse, has been tapped to serve as communications director for Advancing American Freedom, a Pence-aligned non-profit organization that is serving as the former vice president’s campaign-in-waiting. Those familiar with the hiring process say two additional communications officials are expected to be added sometime early next year. Pence’s team is also looking to bring on fundraising aides.


The staffing additions are the latest step Pence has taken toward launching a 2024 bid. Last week, he released a memoir and made an appearance at the Republican Jewish Coalition conference in Las Vegas, an event that attracted a handful of prospective presidential aspirants. The former vice president spent the last year campaigning across the country for Republican candidates in the midterm election – including in early GOP nominating states like Iowa and New Hampshire.


Pence is expected to continue his political travel into the new year, with a trip to New Hampshire among the potential stops. A Christian evangelical, Pence is also slated to embark on a tour of mega-churches.

So far, the Pence operation totals around two dozen staff and consultants, a group that includes his former chief of staff, Marc Short, and former press secretary, Devin O’Malley, and a veteran GOP strategist, Chip Saltsman. All three are likely to play roles in a 2024 bid.

I truly do not understand Pence's logic. He is well hated by MAGA Republicans, who happen to be most of the Republican electorate. Pence would be lucky to get 1%

Suppose Trump doesn't run. DeSantis, Hawley, Cruz are more likely. But lets say Pence somehow becomes the nominee.

Trump hates Pence with a passion. You think Trump will support him? He'll tell his base to stay home or vote third party.

Surely Pence knows this?

[Pres Mike]

Post election poll- a majority of Dems think Biden should not run for re-election.

I don't think any Dem president has had a majority of his party think he should not run for a 2nd term... this is why all conventional wisdom saying Biden definitely wins the nomination, is not reliable this year.

Also- I can't think of another example where a party didn't want president to run- due to mental capacity issues (Age in Binden's case).

Hot take: Most Americans have become very cynical. Especially Democrats. I would suspect any president to be underwater on rather they should run unless its a cult like Trump

[Pres Mike]

I really don't understand who these hypothetical pro-Youngkin voters are. If they want an alternative to Trump, there are a dozen of them right there. Sure, they might not like DeSantis or Haley or Hutchinson, but if they truly are looking for an alternative, it seems like they could hold their nose and vote for someone they don't especially like.

It's because he's a winner. Ettingermentum puts him in B tier here: https://www.ettingermentum.news/p/the-official-republican-party-presidential

Youngkin, a 56-year old former CEO of the Carlyle Group (yes, the same one from Fahrenheit 9/11), has only run in one election of his life, but that race needs no introduction. Almost exactly one year after Biden won the commonwealth of Virginia by 10%, Youngkin defeated former Governor Terry McAuliffe by two points in the state’s extremely high-profile gubernatorial contest in 2021. This win immediately rocketed Youngkin into the national spotlight, not just because he won in a blue state (although that was impressive enough by itself) but in the way in which he won. While the standard Republican playbook in blue states has always been to compromise on social issues, Youngkin managed to win while centering his campaign around a set of right-wing culture war attacks. It was a massively invigorating result for a Republican Party that had been struggling mightily in places exactly like Virginia for years, and led them to place his strategy at the core of their efforts in the 2022 midterms.

A year and a half later, however, Youngkin still stands alone as the sole Republican to win anything close to a competitive race off of the platform he pioneered. Attempts to take his hysterical campaign style nationally would fail so disastrously that some have already begun dismissing his 2021 win as a fluke. While I wouldn’t go that far—no Republican can win in a state like Virginia simply off of luck alone—it’s also undeniable that Youngkin benefited tremendously from factors outside of his control. The most important of these was timing. His election occurring in November 2021 meant that he was able to benefit from one event that massively helped Republicans—the fall of Kabul and the collapse of Biden’s approval ratings—while avoiding the impact of the Dobbs ruling, which massively harmed Republicans. If his race occurred before the former event, he almost certainly loses. If it occurred after the latter one, he likely loses as well.

And you don’t even have to look into hypotheticals to see that Youngkin’s ability to overperform Trump in November 2021 wasn’t a unique one. Jack Ciattarelli, the Republican candidate for Governor in New Jersey, whose election was on the same day as Youngkin, actually had a larger overperformance in his race than Youngkin did in his, despite running against a popular incumbent. Because of just how favorable this environment was, Youngkin was never forced to face the sort of hard questions on issues like Trump and abortion that will make or break his viability on the national stage. While the national political media is very far from perfect, I find it doubtful that they will let him slide on as nearly as many issues as local Virginia media did during his race in 2021.

He also rates Tim Scott and Brian Kemp as B Tier as well. There are no credible Republican Presidential contenders in A tier or S tier.

I do think Youngkin will be a strong canididate in 2028 for a variety of reasons. But I also agree he got slighlty lucky in 2021.

I blame his victory on backlash to mask mandates and lockdowns. The fact that several blue state governors ended their mask mandates a few months after Youngkin's victory is proof of this.

[Pres Mike]

If Trump goes to jail, who is the nominee?