The “Who is running in 2024?” tea leaves thread

[Mr. Morden]

In what should come as a shock to no one, Business Insider reports that "Cruz's allies are eyeing another presidential run":

https://news.yahoo.com/10-things-politics-cruzworld-eyes-093401898.html

Ted Cruz's allies are eyeing another presidential run. They view the Texas senator as a "formidable candidate" given the extensive network and name recognition he built in 2016 campaign that fell just short of the nomination.

But like everyone else, Cruz's decision isn't his alone: "Trump is his own orbit. If he runs, nobody else runs," said a former Cruz campaign staffer.

The story also lists several people in Cruz's orbit who would likely be involved in a Cruz '24 campaign.

[NewYorkExpress]

Not sure if it actually counts as a tea leaf, but Trump is close to deal to sell his hotel in Washington D.C.

Donald Trump is reportedly close to selling rights to his hotel near the White House in Washington, a move the website Axios said “would carry a symbolism savoured by opponents”, given it would mean “the removal of Trump’s brash, golden branding from Pennsylvania Avenue”.


......


Axios reported the news about the Trump Hotel on Saturday, saying the Trump Organization was in “advanced talks” to sell rights to the business in the old Post Office building, which Trump leased from the US government in 2013, two years before he announced his first run for president. Trump did not comment.

The hotel opened in September 2016, two months before Trump beat Hillary Clinton for the White House. When Trump was in power, the hotel became a hub for government business and lobbying, and thus a magnet for controversy.

[MarkD]

In what should come as a shock to no one, Business Insider reports that "Cruz's allies are eyeing another presidential run":

https://news.yahoo.com/10-things-politics-cruzworld-eyes-093401898.html

Ted Cruz's allies are eyeing another presidential run. They view the Texas senator as a "formidable candidate" given the extensive network and name recognition he built in 2016 campaign that fell just short of the nomination.

But like everyone else, Cruz's decision isn't his alone: "Trump is his own orbit. If he runs, nobody else runs," said a former Cruz campaign staffer.

The story also lists several people in Cruz's orbit who would likely be involved in a Cruz '24 campaign.

I doubt that Cruz will run for re-election to his Senate seat, despite the fact that Texas law allows him to do so. Also, he supports term limits, and he may be one of the ones who doesn't want to be a hypocrite about it.

[tosk]

In what should come as a shock to no one, Business Insider reports that "Cruz's allies are eyeing another presidential run":

https://news.yahoo.com/10-things-politics-cruzworld-eyes-093401898.html

Ted Cruz's allies are eyeing another presidential run. They view the Texas senator as a "formidable candidate" given the extensive network and name recognition he built in 2016 campaign that fell just short of the nomination.

But like everyone else, Cruz's decision isn't his alone: "Trump is his own orbit. If he runs, nobody else runs," said a former Cruz campaign staffer.

The story also lists several people in Cruz's orbit who would likely be involved in a Cruz '24 campaign.

I doubt that Cruz will run for re-election to his Senate seat, despite the fact that Texas law allows him to do so. Also, he supports term limits, and he may be one of the ones who doesn't want to be a hypocrite about it.

paging Dr. Rand Paul!

[NewYorkExpress]

Melania Trump telling friends she's not interested in being First Lady again.

Former First Lady Melania Trump is not interested in taking back the title, sources told CNN, despite her husband dangling the possibility of another Trump campaign over his supporters.

"Not unlike 2016, Melania Trump has no intention really of joining the campaign," CNN's Kate Bennett said on Sunday. "I've spoken to people who said that she's not even really interested in being in the White House again, going through being first lady again."

Several of Melania Trump's friends told the outlet she has no interest in returning the White House, let alone helping if her husband decides to run.

Former President Donald Trump has not yet said if he plans to run in 2024, though he has teased the possibility multiple times, saying his supporters will be "very happy" with his decision.

I see a divorce in the future.

[Mr. Morden]

Warren was asked if she’d run for president in 2024, and she said she “expects to support” Biden for ’24.  But then when asked what she’ll do if he doesn’t run, she interestingly dodged the question, by just saying “Joe Biden is running”:

https://www.metrowestdailynews.com/story/news/2021/09/05/liz-warren-holds-firm-2024-saying-she-only-eyeing-senate/5673317001/

when asked by the Daily News before Monday's event in Franklin whether she intended to make another attempt for the presidency, Warren simply responded: "Joe Biden is running for president and I expect to support him."

And when queried about what would happen if Biden chose not to seek a second term, Warren replied, “Joe Biden is running.”  

[NewYorkExpress]

Warren was asked if she’d run for president in 2024, and she said she “expects to support” Biden for ’24.  But then when asked what she’ll do if he doesn’t run, she interestingly dodged the question, by just saying “Joe Biden is running”:

https://www.metrowestdailynews.com/story/news/2021/09/05/liz-warren-holds-firm-2024-saying-she-only-eyeing-senate/5673317001/

when asked by the Daily News before Monday's event in Franklin whether she intended to make another attempt for the presidency, Warren simply responded: "Joe Biden is running for president and I expect to support him."

And when queried about what would happen if Biden chose not to seek a second term, Warren replied, “Joe Biden is running.”  

I've been of the belief that if Biden isn't going to run, Harris is going to have a harder road to the primary than she thinks, and that's if she runs. Harris will probably be begged to come back to California and primary Feinstein/run in an open seat Senate race, especially if 2024 looks like a lost cause atop the ballot.

Whether that impacts any decision by Warren, I have no idea.

[Mr. Morden]

DeSantis called speculation about him running for president “nonsense” without explicitly denying that he’s thinking of running for president:

https://www.politico.com/states/florida/story/2021/09/07/desantis-calls-talk-of-a-2024-presidential-bid-nonsense-1390768

“All the speculation about me is purely manufactured,” said DeSantis during a press conference he held to tout a Covid-19 treatment unit in St. Cloud, Fla. “I just do my job and we work hard… I hear all this stuff and honestly it’s nonsense.”
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In the last few months DeSantis has traveled to California, Utah, Wisconsin, Pennsylvania, Indiana and Texas. Most of those trips have been confined to fundraising for his political committee, but he has appeared at events designed to raise his profile, including a national police convention, a national legislative conference and headlined a Pittsburgh GOP fundraising dinner.

He’s avoided stepping foot in early primary states such as Iowa and New Hampshire and scrapped a scheduled trip to Nevada last month due to a tropical storm that was threatening the state.

[Canis]

Warren was asked if she’d run for president in 2024, and she said she “expects to support” Biden for ’24.  But then when asked what she’ll do if he doesn’t run, she interestingly dodged the question, by just saying “Joe Biden is running”:

https://www.metrowestdailynews.com/story/news/2021/09/05/liz-warren-holds-firm-2024-saying-she-only-eyeing-senate/5673317001/

when asked by the Daily News before Monday's event in Franklin whether she intended to make another attempt for the presidency, Warren simply responded: "Joe Biden is running for president and I expect to support him."

And when queried about what would happen if Biden chose not to seek a second term, Warren replied, “Joe Biden is running.”  

I've been of the belief that if Biden isn't going to run, Harris is going to have a harder road to the primary than she thinks, and that's if she runs. Harris will probably be begged to come back to California and primary Feinstein/run in an open seat Senate race, especially if 2024 looks like a lost cause atop the ballot.

Whether that impacts any decision by Warren, I have no idea.

Im not sure there will be pressure for Harris to primary Feinstein I'm pretty sure Feinstein will retire. But I agree if Biden doesn't run I don't see what's stopping AOC Buttigieg and Warren from running who could pose very serious threats to Harris. A dark horse could also hop in like maybe JBE or Eric Adams.

[AltWorlder]

lmao this happened back in November and no one noticed it.

https://twitter.com/politico/status/1331447661682188296

[Mr. Morden]

lmao this happened back in November and no one noticed it.

https://twitter.com/politico/status/1331447661682188296

Actually, that was noted at the time in this very thread:

Bit of a shock but NSA Robert O'Brien has floated a 2024 bid

https://www.politico.com/news/2020/11/24/trumps-national-security-adviser-floats-a-2024-bid-with-friends-439999

[Real Texan Politics]

Surprised it hasn't been brought up here, but Donald Trump is heading to Iowa.

https://www.desmoinesregister.com/story/news/elections/presidential/caucus/2021/09/07/donald-trump-iowa-rally-october-possible-2024-presidential-election-campaign/5757782001/

DeSantis called speculation about him running for president “nonsense” without explicitly denying that he’s thinking of running for president:

https://www.politico.com/states/florida/story/2021/09/07/desantis-calls-talk-of-a-2024-presidential-bid-nonsense-1390768

“All the speculation about me is purely manufactured,” said DeSantis during a press conference he held to tout a Covid-19 treatment unit in St. Cloud, Fla. “I just do my job and we work hard… I hear all this stuff and honestly it’s nonsense.”
.
.
.
In the last few months DeSantis has traveled to California, Utah, Wisconsin, Pennsylvania, Indiana and Texas. Most of those trips have been confined to fundraising for his political committee, but he has appeared at events designed to raise his profile, including a national police convention, a national legislative conference and headlined a Pittsburgh GOP fundraising dinner.

He’s avoided stepping foot in early primary states such as Iowa and New Hampshire and scrapped a scheduled trip to Nevada last month due to a tropical storm that was threatening the state.

And could it be possible DeSantis knows Trump is running, and is stepping out of the way?

Either way DeSantis will probably run in 2028.

[Mr. Morden]

DeSantis called speculation about him running for president “nonsense” without explicitly denying that he’s thinking of running for president:

https://www.politico.com/states/florida/story/2021/09/07/desantis-calls-talk-of-a-2024-presidential-bid-nonsense-1390768

“All the speculation about me is purely manufactured,” said DeSantis during a press conference he held to tout a Covid-19 treatment unit in St. Cloud, Fla. “I just do my job and we work hard… I hear all this stuff and honestly it’s nonsense.”
.
.
.
In the last few months DeSantis has traveled to California, Utah, Wisconsin, Pennsylvania, Indiana and Texas. Most of those trips have been confined to fundraising for his political committee, but he has appeared at events designed to raise his profile, including a national police convention, a national legislative conference and headlined a Pittsburgh GOP fundraising dinner.

He’s avoided stepping foot in early primary states such as Iowa and New Hampshire and scrapped a scheduled trip to Nevada last month due to a tropical storm that was threatening the state.

And could it be possible DeSantis knows Trump is running, and is stepping out of the way?

No, that's not very realistic.  There's no reason to think that DeSantis has inside info on that.

And he isn't stepping out of the way.  He called the speculation "manufactured" and "nonsense", without actually denying the substance of it.  He didn't actually say "I'm not running", or anything like that.  He just said that it's dumb that people talk about it.

[NewYorkExpress]

Surprised it hasn't been brought up here, but Donald Trump is heading to Iowa.

https://www.desmoinesregister.com/story/news/elections/presidential/caucus/2021/09/07/donald-trump-iowa-rally-october-possible-2024-presidential-election-campaign/5757782001/

DeSantis called speculation about him running for president “nonsense” without explicitly denying that he’s thinking of running for president:

https://www.politico.com/states/florida/story/2021/09/07/desantis-calls-talk-of-a-2024-presidential-bid-nonsense-1390768

“All the speculation about me is purely manufactured,” said DeSantis during a press conference he held to tout a Covid-19 treatment unit in St. Cloud, Fla. “I just do my job and we work hard… I hear all this stuff and honestly it’s nonsense.”
.
.
.
In the last few months DeSantis has traveled to California, Utah, Wisconsin, Pennsylvania, Indiana and Texas. Most of those trips have been confined to fundraising for his political committee, but he has appeared at events designed to raise his profile, including a national police convention, a national legislative conference and headlined a Pittsburgh GOP fundraising dinner.

He’s avoided stepping foot in early primary states such as Iowa and New Hampshire and scrapped a scheduled trip to Nevada last month due to a tropical storm that was threatening the state.

And could it be possible DeSantis knows Trump is running, and is stepping out of the way?

Either way DeSantis will probably run in 2028.

More likely Trump will run for a third term in 2028, whether he's legally allowed to or not.

[Real Texan Politics]

Surprised it hasn't been brought up here, but Donald Trump is heading to Iowa.

https://www.desmoinesregister.com/story/news/elections/presidential/caucus/2021/09/07/donald-trump-iowa-rally-october-possible-2024-presidential-election-campaign/5757782001/

DeSantis called speculation about him running for president “nonsense” without explicitly denying that he’s thinking of running for president:

https://www.politico.com/states/florida/story/2021/09/07/desantis-calls-talk-of-a-2024-presidential-bid-nonsense-1390768

“All the speculation about me is purely manufactured,” said DeSantis during a press conference he held to tout a Covid-19 treatment unit in St. Cloud, Fla. “I just do my job and we work hard… I hear all this stuff and honestly it’s nonsense.”
.
.
.
In the last few months DeSantis has traveled to California, Utah, Wisconsin, Pennsylvania, Indiana and Texas. Most of those trips have been confined to fundraising for his political committee, but he has appeared at events designed to raise his profile, including a national police convention, a national legislative conference and headlined a Pittsburgh GOP fundraising dinner.

He’s avoided stepping foot in early primary states such as Iowa and New Hampshire and scrapped a scheduled trip to Nevada last month due to a tropical storm that was threatening the state.

And could it be possible DeSantis knows Trump is running, and is stepping out of the way?

Either way DeSantis will probably run in 2028.

More likely Trump will run for a third term in 2028, whether he's legally allowed to or not.

Considering he'll be in his early 80s by then, that may be enough of a reason for advisors to talk him out of it, even if he legally can't. He probably won't anyways citing old age and wanting to spend more time with his family.

Although maybe we could see someone like MTG draft legislation to abolish presidential term limits and make Trump president for life, though I'm confident it'll get defeated even if some republicans do vote for it, and that's IF it survives a committee.

But even if he can't run since term limits would still be a thing, and even if he endorses DeSantis as his successor, there's still enough Trump/QAnon worshippers that would write-in Trump in every election from now on.

[Progressive Pessimist]

DeSantis called speculation about him running for president “nonsense” without explicitly denying that he’s thinking of running for president:

https://www.politico.com/states/florida/story/2021/09/07/desantis-calls-talk-of-a-2024-presidential-bid-nonsense-1390768

“All the speculation about me is purely manufactured,” said DeSantis during a press conference he held to tout a Covid-19 treatment unit in St. Cloud, Fla. “I just do my job and we work hard… I hear all this stuff and honestly it’s nonsense.”
.
.
.
In the last few months DeSantis has traveled to California, Utah, Wisconsin, Pennsylvania, Indiana and Texas. Most of those trips have been confined to fundraising for his political committee, but he has appeared at events designed to raise his profile, including a national police convention, a national legislative conference and headlined a Pittsburgh GOP fundraising dinner.

He’s avoided stepping foot in early primary states such as Iowa and New Hampshire and scrapped a scheduled trip to Nevada last month due to a tropical storm that was threatening the state.

DeSantis' blatant courting of the most zealous of the right wing is all the evidence we need that he is considering running for President. The only thing in his way is if Trump decides to run after all.

[NYSforKennedy2024]

Politico - Andrew Yang to create his own party, set for launch in October

[Heebie Jeebie]

Warren was asked if she’d run for president in 2024, and she said she “expects to support” Biden for ’24.  But then when asked what she’ll do if he doesn’t run, she interestingly dodged the question, by just saying “Joe Biden is running”:

https://www.metrowestdailynews.com/story/news/2021/09/05/liz-warren-holds-firm-2024-saying-she-only-eyeing-senate/5673317001/

when asked by the Daily News before Monday's event in Franklin whether she intended to make another attempt for the presidency, Warren simply responded: "Joe Biden is running for president and I expect to support him."

And when queried about what would happen if Biden chose not to seek a second term, Warren replied, “Joe Biden is running.”  

I've been of the belief that if Biden isn't going to run, Harris is going to have a harder road to the primary than she thinks, and that's if she runs. Harris will probably be begged to come back to California and primary Feinstein/run in an open seat Senate race, especially if 2024 looks like a lost cause atop the ballot.

Whether that impacts any decision by Warren, I have no idea.

Im not sure there will be pressure for Harris to primary Feinstein I'm pretty sure Feinstein will retire. But I agree if Biden doesn't run I don't see what's stopping AOC Buttigieg and Warren from running who could pose very serious threats to Harris. A dark horse could also hop in like maybe JBE or Eric Adams.

Harris is of the far left.  If there's a primary challenge that has any chance of gaining traction, I think it is overwhelmingly likely to come from the center, not from someone like Warren or AOC.

I don't think it's likely, but it would be fascinating to see Amy Klobuchar or Cory Booker challenge Harris.

[Mr. Morden]

Trump once again says that his decision on whether to run for prez again in 2024 will make people “very happy”, while also now saying “I’ll make a decision in the not-so-distant future.”:

https://www.foxnews.com/media/trump-gutfeld-2024-plans

"I love our country," he said. "I think you’ll be very happy. I would say two, three years ago you might not have been that happy but now I think you’d be happy… I’ll make a decision in the not-so-distant future."

[Progressive Pessimist]

Trump once again says that his decision on whether to run for prez again in 2024 will make people “very happy”, while also now saying “I’ll make a decision in the not-so-distant future.”:

https://www.foxnews.com/media/trump-gutfeld-2024-plans

"I love our country," he said. "I think you’ll be very happy. I would say two, three years ago you might not have been that happy but now I think you’d be happy… I’ll make a decision in the not-so-distant future."

He's right. I wasn't very happy two or three years ago. Not that I'm much happier now, but him saying anything makes me less happy still.

[Mr. Morden]

Trump on 2024:

https://www.foxnews.com/politics/trump-on-9-11-teases-2024-run

Asked by a police officer if he plans to launch a comeback in 2024, or perhaps run for New York City mayor, Trump responded "that’s a tough question."

But then he said "actually, for me, it's an easy question. I mean, I know what I'm going to do, but I'm not supposed to be talking about it yet from the standpoint of campaign finance laws, which, frankly, are ridiculous."

And the former president, as he’s said numerous times already this year of his potential campaign decision, added that "I think you're going to be happy."

[NewYorkExpress]

DeSantis was at the Nebraska Steak Fry today, as was Cruz and Pence and Pete Ricketts.

More than 1,000 miles from Florida, Gov. Ron DeSantis was selling red meat rhetoric for a red meat audience.

At the Fifth Annual Nebraska Steak Fry on Sunday, DeSantis was in his element: serving up conservative haymakers in front of a crowd of 1,200 heartland Republicans just across the Missouri River from first-in-the-nation Iowa, the traditional kickoff state for presidential elections.

....

DeSantis didn’t have the crowd on Sunday to himself, though, and was joined by two other possible 2024 presidential candidates: former Vice President Mike Pence and Texas Sen. Ted Cruz. Early Republican primary polling shows the three lead the potential field of candidates if Trump decides against a rematch run against Biden.


Another future presidential candidate may also have spoken Sunday: Nebraska Gov. Pete Ricketts, who hosted the event. His second and last term ends next year and Ricketts hasn’t ruled out a future bid for president.

[Vaccinated Russian Bear]

https://twitter.com/AndrewSolender/status/1433975840988090369

[tosk]

https://twitter.com/AndrewSolender/status/1433975840988090369

Low-key weaker than I was expecting

(I say as he has a fifty point lead)

[Mr. Morden]

DeSantis was at the Nebraska Steak Fry today, as was Cruz and Pence and Pete Ricketts.

Also from that story, when Pence was asked about his 2024 plans, he just said "I'll keep you posted."