The “Who is running in 2024?” tea leaves thread

[Real Texan Politics]

Here's my list of potential candidates:

Republicans:
Ben Shapiro
Ted Cruz
Donald Trump Jr.
George P. Bush
Lindsey Graham
Greg Abbott
Dan Crenshaw
Rand Paul
Ben Carson
Mike Pence
Marco Rubio
Scott Walker
Nikki Haley
John James
Josh Hawley
Doug Ducey
Ron DeSantis
Tim Scott
Will Hurd
Tom Cotton
Mike Pompeo

Democrats
Chelsea Clinton
Kamala Harris
Andrew Yang
Pete Buttigieg
Oprah Winfrey
Andrew Cuomo
Ilhan Omar
Rashida Tlaib
Stacey Abrams
Beto O'Rourke
Elizabeth Warren
Michelle Obama
Shaun King
Gavin Newsome
Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez
Tim Kaine

Honorable Mentions:
Tucker Carlson (R)
Alex Jones (R)
Candace Owens (R)
John Bel Edwards (D)

I also think Kanye West and Dwayne Johnson may try running as independents, but I don't expect them to get very far (although Kanye may)

[Real Texan Politics]

Found this Ballotpedia page that shows many potential 2024 candidates for both parties.
https://ballotpedia.org/Presidential_candidates,_2024

[Real Texan Politics]

Greg Abbott not ruling out a 2024 presidential run:

https://www.amarillopioneer.com/blog/2020/11/12/abbott-not-ruling-out-2024-presidential-bid

In an interview on KSKY-AM in Dallas on Thursday, host Mark Davis asked Abbott if he is considering a bid for president in 2024. Abbott responded by not ruling out such a bid, saying, “we’ll see what happens.”

"One thing that you know about me, I take one step at a time," Abbott said.

Also realize he's still got the 2022 Texas gubernatorial election to worry about.

On the other hand he could also withdraw from the race and run for president in 2024 and hope he goes far.

[Real Texan Politics]

I don’t really believe her, since she spent so much of 2020 visiting early primary states, but Noem claims she’s not going to run for president in 2024:

https://www.argusleader.com/story/news/2021/01/06/gov-noem-run-president-2024-shes-finally-answering-directly/6571470002/

"No," the governor said Wednesday afternoon after being asked if she will run for president in 2024, during a trip to Sioux Falls.  "I am focused on staying here in South Dakota."

Based in the last few cycles. The more someone says they’re not going to run, the more I think they are going to run

Based on that logic, Michelle Obama could be the democratic nominee in 2028 if republicans win in '24.

[Real Texan Politics]

I don’t really believe her, since she spent so much of 2020 visiting early primary states, but Noem claims she’s not going to run for president in 2024:

https://www.argusleader.com/story/news/2021/01/06/gov-noem-run-president-2024-shes-finally-answering-directly/6571470002/

"No," the governor said Wednesday afternoon after being asked if she will run for president in 2024, during a trip to Sioux Falls.  "I am focused on staying here in South Dakota."

Based in the last few cycles. The more someone says they’re not going to run, the more I think they are going to run

Based on that logic, Michelle Obama could be the democratic nominee in 2028 if republicans win in '24.

Michell Obama hasn't been randomly visiting Iowa and New Hampshire along with running a national ad campagin with her name in it.

Yeah and I'm not saying she's gonna run, in fact I don't even think she will.

[Real Texan Politics]

Haley has formed a PAC:

https://www.postandcourier.com/columbia/nikki-haley-starts-pac-as-her-expected-2024-white-house-bid-takes-shape/article_78e3ab50-55f1-11eb-9421-3f3b7a293f1f.html

The PAC, named after her other political group Stand for America, will be “laser-focused on the 2022 midterms and electing a conservative force to the House of Representatives and U.S. Senate to serve as a bulwark against the liberal agendas of Joe Biden, Kamala Harris, Chuck Schumer, and Nancy Pelosi,” Haley said in an email to supporters Wednesday.

Haley has demurred when asked about her presidential ambitions. But she has taken several steps since leaving the United Nations at the end of 2018 to suggest she will run, including releasing a second book and starting the first Stand for America political advocacy group. 

In a filing with the Federal Election Commission, the new PAC lists Bradley Crate of Massachusetts as the treasurer. Crate’s firm was the treasurer for Donald Trump’s 2016 presidential campaign, and he was a top financial officer in Mitt Romney’s 2008 and 2012 presidential campaigns. 
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Importantly, the PAC will pay for Haley to travel around the country to campaign for other candidates, a move that will provide her more publicity among voters while building GOP allies ahead of a 2024 White House bid.

So Crate may be her treasurer for her campaign?

[Real Texan Politics]

https://www.rawstory.com/josh-hawley-not-running-president/

Looks like Hawley's not running? We'll see how long this lasts, but I could see this happening due to him trying to be re-elected as senator of Missouri.

[Real Texan Politics]

He's probably more of a dark horse candidate at this point. My feeling is that he's trying to hold onto his senate seat for 2024 that I imagine is gonna be the Beto vs Cruz of that year.

[Real Texan Politics]

CPAC is now less than a week away.  It’s actually being held in Orlando this year.  Here’s a list of confirmed speakers:

https://cpac.conservative.org/speakers/

It includes quite a few potential 2024 candidates, including Trump, Noem, Pompeo, DeSantis, Cotton, Cruz, Hawley, and Rick Scott.

According to this tweet, Pence was invited, but is opting not to attend:

https://twitter.com/GabbyOrr_/status/1363249454988558338

Pence probably would've gotten booed pretty harshly anyways.

[Real Texan Politics]

Cheney won't last 6 months. There, I said it.

6 months may even be generous to her.

[Real Texan Politics]

https://twitter.com/sahilkapur/status/1392509893643472901?s=20

And neither will Cassidy.

[Real Texan Politics]

In other news, John Bolton will be doing an event in South Carolina on Oct. 1st:

https://www.fitsnews.com/2021/08/11/john-bolton-is-coming-to-south-carolina/

Does he really have a future within the GOP? I really doubt it.

[Real Texan Politics]

Surprised it hasn't been brought up here, but Donald Trump is heading to Iowa.

https://www.desmoinesregister.com/story/news/elections/presidential/caucus/2021/09/07/donald-trump-iowa-rally-october-possible-2024-presidential-election-campaign/5757782001/

DeSantis called speculation about him running for president “nonsense” without explicitly denying that he’s thinking of running for president:

https://www.politico.com/states/florida/story/2021/09/07/desantis-calls-talk-of-a-2024-presidential-bid-nonsense-1390768

“All the speculation about me is purely manufactured,” said DeSantis during a press conference he held to tout a Covid-19 treatment unit in St. Cloud, Fla. “I just do my job and we work hard… I hear all this stuff and honestly it’s nonsense.”
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In the last few months DeSantis has traveled to California, Utah, Wisconsin, Pennsylvania, Indiana and Texas. Most of those trips have been confined to fundraising for his political committee, but he has appeared at events designed to raise his profile, including a national police convention, a national legislative conference and headlined a Pittsburgh GOP fundraising dinner.

He’s avoided stepping foot in early primary states such as Iowa and New Hampshire and scrapped a scheduled trip to Nevada last month due to a tropical storm that was threatening the state.

And could it be possible DeSantis knows Trump is running, and is stepping out of the way?

Either way DeSantis will probably run in 2028.

[Real Texan Politics]

Surprised it hasn't been brought up here, but Donald Trump is heading to Iowa.

https://www.desmoinesregister.com/story/news/elections/presidential/caucus/2021/09/07/donald-trump-iowa-rally-october-possible-2024-presidential-election-campaign/5757782001/

DeSantis called speculation about him running for president “nonsense” without explicitly denying that he’s thinking of running for president:

https://www.politico.com/states/florida/story/2021/09/07/desantis-calls-talk-of-a-2024-presidential-bid-nonsense-1390768

“All the speculation about me is purely manufactured,” said DeSantis during a press conference he held to tout a Covid-19 treatment unit in St. Cloud, Fla. “I just do my job and we work hard… I hear all this stuff and honestly it’s nonsense.”
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In the last few months DeSantis has traveled to California, Utah, Wisconsin, Pennsylvania, Indiana and Texas. Most of those trips have been confined to fundraising for his political committee, but he has appeared at events designed to raise his profile, including a national police convention, a national legislative conference and headlined a Pittsburgh GOP fundraising dinner.

He’s avoided stepping foot in early primary states such as Iowa and New Hampshire and scrapped a scheduled trip to Nevada last month due to a tropical storm that was threatening the state.

And could it be possible DeSantis knows Trump is running, and is stepping out of the way?

Either way DeSantis will probably run in 2028.

More likely Trump will run for a third term in 2028, whether he's legally allowed to or not.

Considering he'll be in his early 80s by then, that may be enough of a reason for advisors to talk him out of it, even if he legally can't. He probably won't anyways citing old age and wanting to spend more time with his family.

Although maybe we could see someone like MTG draft legislation to abolish presidential term limits and make Trump president for life, though I'm confident it'll get defeated even if some republicans do vote for it, and that's IF it survives a committee.

But even if he can't run since term limits would still be a thing, and even if he endorses DeSantis as his successor, there's still enough Trump/QAnon worshippers that would write-in Trump in every election from now on.